Don't Look at My Team

Cade Otton — TE, TB (2026)

Scoring note: The evaluation request assumed full PPR pending league confirmation, but methodology/league-settings.md was confirmed 2026-07-08: half PPR (0.5/reception), no TE premium, 1 TE slot. Projections below are half-PPR per the file (the source of truth). Full-PPR equivalents ≈ +25–30 points across the band (~95 / ~128 / ~163). Half-PPR + no premium compresses Otton's reception-heavy value and makes the punt-tier posture the league default per te.md §7.

Verdict

HOLD (medium confidence) at mock-undrafted. Otton is the league's most extreme volume-floor / no-ceiling TE: he led all NFL tight ends in routes per game (~35) and snaps since 2023, yet earned only 0.15 targets per route at a 4.9 aDOT and finished below the TE24 PPG line in this scoring. His role in 2026 is bulletproof — fresh 3-yr/$30M ($20M gtd) extension, no draft-capital threat, top-2-PROE offense — but every ceiling driver is absent: no detached usage, no verified red-zone role, rising chip/pass-pro duty, and a new OC whose calling card (22.9% RB target share at ATL) attacks Otton's exact checkdown lane. Even his best season (2024 under Coen — the offense Robinson's is reported to resemble) was TE14 at 7.94 half-PPR PPG, *below* the streamer baseline. Price (free), profile (streamer), and tier (punt) all agree — that is the definition of HOLD: a fine free bench-TE2/bye-week floor play, not a draft priority, and not what the punt tier hunts (a free ceiling bet). No "market is wrong" line required; the market has him roughly right.

Scarcity placement (te.md §7): punt tier — but as the floor member, not the upside member. Streamer baseline ≈ TE12 season PPG (8.75 half-PPR, 2025 weekly.csv) + ~0.75 streaming bonus ≈ 9.5 PPG. Otton's median projects ~6.3 PPG and his 80th-percentile ~8.1 — his VORP vs the streamer baseline is negative across nearly the whole band. With no TE premium and one TE slot, the same last-round pick buys higher-variance punt TEs with live paths to +PPG (e.g., Sadiq 168.1, Gadsden 160.5 FFC 2026-07-07). Roster him from waivers when a matchup or a TB WR injury calls for it.

Bull case

The floor is the position's safest free floor: NFL-most TE routes/game, three straight years ≥92% snaps, a $10M-APY extension with $20M guaranteed, zero draft-capital competition — 75+ targets is close to locked if healthy (sources: JoeBucsFan 2025-11-11; pewterreport 2026-06-28; buccaneers.com 2026-03-09).
TD regression points up: 1 TD on 81 targets vs 4 TDs in each of 2023–24 on similar volume; minicamp reports flag deliberate red-zone TE usage under Robinson (buccaneers.com, June 2026). +2 TDs ≈ +12 points on a 100-point base.
Demonstrated contingency spike: with Evans/Godwin out he posted 2.03 YPRR (2024 wks 8–10) and 12-target games (2025 wk 10); Godwin is 30 with 18 games missed over two seasons and the WR3 job is an open three-way battle — a WR injury re-run channels targets to Otton immediately, on a top-2 PROE offense.

Bear case

He doesn't earn: TPRR ~0.15, YPRR ~1.0, aDOT 4.85, PFF receiving grade 58.1 (36th of 37 qualified TEs, 2025) — this is scheme-fed volume, not target-winning, and it has now been true for three seasons across three play-callers.
The new scheme attacks his lane: Robinson's RB target share (22.9% ATL) vs TB's 16.8%, plus a healthy Godwin re-installed in the slot and Egbuka's 24–27% TS — the checkdown/MOF targets that made Otton's floor are the exact targets being reassigned; and the ATL "24.5% to TEs" stat was Pitts-shaped, not scheme dogma.
Ceiling is structurally capped: no detached role, rising chip/pass-pro duty (6th-best TE pass-block grade — the staff sees a protector), mediocre athleticism, R4 pedigree, and his best-ever season (the direct scheme comp) was still below the TE12 streamer baseline in this scoring. Half-PPR with no TE premium shaves his reception-heavy profile another ~1.5 PPG vs full PPR.

Projection & comps

Bottom-up (half-PPR), 16-game median (missed 1 game 2025, 3 in 2024; games risk low — NFL-most TE snaps 2023–25):

Input	Floor (p20)	Median	Ceiling (p80)	Basis
Team dropbacks/gm	36	38	39	Team profile: ~33.5 att + sacks/scrambles (TB.md, 2026-07-07)
Route share of dropbacks	~74% (Sharp rotation + chip duty)	~82%	~87%	89.2% pass-snap participation 2025, 80.2% 2024 (participation.csv proxy); routes led NFL at ~35/gm (JoeBucsFan/Sumer, 2025-11-11)
Routes (16 gm)	~430	~500	~540
TPRR	0.145	0.155	0.17	0.151 proxy 2025, 0.175 proxy 2024 (targets ÷ charted pass snaps on-field)
Targets	62	77	92	TS check: 14.3% median vs 15.0%/15.5% actual 2025/2024
Rec (72% catch) / yds (7.0 y/tgt)	44 / 420	55 / 540	67 / 660	Catch% 72.8, 7.06 y/tgt 2025 (receiving.csv)
TDs (xTD-anchored)	2	3	5	Career 4/4/1 on 47/87/81 tgt; 2025's 1 TD below xTD → mild positive regression; RZ role modest (see §3)
Half-PPR points	75	100	130	PPG ≈ 4.7 / 6.3 / 8.1

Sanity: no external projections in data/projections/ (dir absent). PlayerProfiler 2025 FPPG 7.6 PPR (#24) and VOS −1.3 (#198) agree with the shape (fetched 2026-07-08).

Comps (high-RP, low-aDOT, every-down Y in functional offenses):

Cade Otton 2024 (self-comp, Coen offense): 87 tgt, 59-600-4, TE14 / 7.94 half-PPR PPG — the realistic bull case shape.
Hunter Henry 2025 NE: ~15% TS, low aDOT, 8.75 PPG = TE12 — what "everything breaks right" looks like.
Jake Ferguson 2025 DAL: volume-first, 8.65 PPG TE13 — ceiling-adjacent comp.
Tyler Higbee 2021 LAR (McVay-tree every-down Y): ~85 targets, streamer-to-TE13 band — the scheme-tree comp for Robinson's likely usage.
Cole Kmet 2024 CHI: high snap share, checkdown profile, sub-streamer output — the floor comp.

Usage profile (te.md §2 table)

Metric	2025	2024	Band	Read
Route participation	~89% of charted dropbacks on-field (536/601, participation.csv proxy); led NFL TEs at ~35 routes/gm (JoeBucsFan/Sumer, 2025-11-11); 93% snap share	80.2% (497/620); 92% snap share	Elite	Gate passed maximally — routes are not the missing piece
TPRR	0.151 (81/536, proxy — true routes denominator slightly smaller after chip/pass-pro removal, so ~0.15–0.17)	0.175 (87/497 proxy)	Concern→low-Good	RP≥80 + TPRR ~0.15 ≈ the "outlet running routes" profile — volume without earning (§2 sell signal, just above the 0.14 line)
YPRR	~1.02–1.07 (572 yds/~536–560 routes)	~1.21 proxy; 1.39 in non-WR-injury weeks, 2.03 wks 8–10 with Evans/Godwin out (FantasyPros/D. Brown, Sep 2025)	Concern	Earns ~1.0 with WRs healthy; spikes only in injury vacuums
Target share	15.0% (81/541)	15.5%	Just below Good	Sticky ~15% across two schemes — believe it
RZ target share	UNVERIFIED (no raw pbp in cache); buccaneers.com (June 2026) says TB "largely failed to utilize" TEs in the red zone in 2025	UNVERIFIED	Concern lean	1 TD on 81 tgt at 4.85 aDOT — the TD deficit is part usage, part luck
End-zone targets	UNVERIFIED	UNVERIFIED	—	xTD anchored to career rates instead (2–4/yr)
Detached rate	UNVERIFIED numerically; qualitative = inline chip-and-release, "chipping more than he ever did," PFF pass-block grade 71.3 = 6th among TEs (pewterreport/buccaneers.com, 2025–26)	UNVERIFIED	Concern	The staff treats him as a protector-plus; pass-pro duty is a direct route tax (te.md §3)
xFP	Provider xFP UNVERIFIED; PlayerProfiler FPPG 7.6 PPR (#24), VOS −1.3 (#198)	TE14 half-PPR PPG (7.94)	TE15–24 band	Usage says streamer, actuals agree

Aging/pedigree screen (§9): 2022 R4.106 (rosters.csv), Washington; age 27 (born 1999-04-15) — inside the 25–29 peak window, past the year-3 breakout window (year 5, role already mature). Athletic profile mediocre: 4.78 forty (47th pct), 94.6 speed score (44th pct) vs good production pedigree (31.8% college dominator, 92nd pct; 19.4 breakout age, 87th pct) (PlayerProfiler, fetched 2026-07-08). Per §9, weak testing + day-3 capital caps the ceiling below the pay-up tier — consistent with three years of evidence. Archetype: every-down Y / checkdown outlet — between Receiving Y and Blocking Y; emphatically not the detached-alpha archetype.

Context (data/team-profiles/TB.md, 2026-07-07)

New OC Zac Robinson (McVay tree, ex-ATL): top-2 PROE at both stops, PA ~20.6%, motion 53% — a functional, pass-tilted offense (8.5 win total). Scheme headline for TEs cuts both ways: ATL threw 24.5% to TEs, but that was Kyle Pitts-shaped; the profile expects 11-personnel to rebound in TB (three starting WRs), and reporting projects the offense to resemble Coen's 2024 TB offense — in which Otton was TE14.
Target hierarchy: Otton sits #3 behind Egbuka (proj. 24–27% TS) and a healthy Godwin returned to full-time slot — Godwin's slot role competes directly for Otton's middle-of-field lane (§6: slot WRs hit the TE first). Gainwell's arrival is the sneaky-biggest threat: Robinson's ATL RB target share was 22.9% vs TB's 16.8% in 2025 (receiving.csv) — a ~30-target swing toward RBs comes largely out of the aDOT-4.9 outlet lane Otton lived in.
TE room: no capital threat — R6.185 Bauer Sharp ("move TE"), Durham (354 snaps, 4 targets — pure blocker), Kieft, Culp. But beat framing (pewterreport, 2026-06-28) is that Sharp lets Otton "decrease his iron-man burden" — read: modest route-share trim risk, not a challenge to TE1 status.
OL: 5/5 starters return; 2025's protection chaos (which drove Otton's chip duty) should ease — mild route-quality tailwind if real.
QB: Mayfield, contract year, low games risk; checkdown-friendly. Backup Browning would *hold* Otton's value (compressed offenses feed outlets).
Vacated targets: 107–160 (Evans 62, White 45, Shepard 53) — but Godwin's health, Gainwell, and the WR3 room are the claimants; Otton's sticky ~15% TS is the base case, not a share spike.

Tripwires (re-run on any)

Camp/preseason: Bauer Sharp running with the 1s or taking a meaningful route share in 12 personnel → floor trim, downgrade lean.
Godwin setback/PUP/trade (or an Egbuka/WR-room injury) → contingency fires, re-run toward TARGET.
Beat reports of Robinson using Otton detached/slot ("moving him around," big-slot looks) → the missing ceiling driver appears, re-run toward TARGET.
Pass-block/chip rate up again in preseason (esp. if Mauch's interior recovery stalls) → route tax persists, confirms streamer cap.
ADP enters the drafted range (FFC top ~180 / TE18 or earlier) → free-price thesis void; at a real pick cost this profile is a FADE.

Sources

data/stats/2025/receiving.csv, snap_counts.csv, ngs_receiving.csv, weekly.csv, participation.csv, rosters.csv; data/stats/2024/ same tables — nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07. (Otton 2025: 81-59-572-1, 15.0% TS, 4.85 avg intended air yds, 93% snaps, 16 gm; 2024: 87-59-600-4, 15.5% TS; participation proxies: 536/601 charted TB dropbacks on-field 2025, 497/620 in 2024; TE half-PPR leaderboards; TB RB target share 16.8%.)
data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv — Otton null ADP, source sleeper-searchrank 2026-07-08; FFC PPR TE ladder (McBride 27.6 … Sadiq 168.1). ADP basis: mock-undrafted (Sleeper rank tail, 2026-07-07).
data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json — age 27, depth_chart_order 1, search_rank 148.
data/team-profiles/TB.md (built 2026-07-07) — Robinson hire/history (ATL TE tgt 24.5%, RB tgt 22.9%, PROE +3.85), hierarchy, OL, win total 8.5, Otton extension, Sharp R6.185.
methodology/league-settings.md — half PPR / no TE premium / 1 TE, confirmed 2026-07-08.
Web (fetched 2026-07-08): PlayerProfiler Cade Otton page (athletic profile, FPPG 7.6 #24, VOS −1.3); JoeBucsFan 2025-11-11 (NFL-most 35 routes/gm, early-season pass-pro usage); pewterreport 2026-06-28 "Iron Man" (2,968 snaps since 2023 = most among TEs, snap %s, Sharp role framing, $30M/15th-highest TE APY); buccaneers.com 2026-03-09 (3-yr extension) + June 2026 minicamp notes (RZ TE usage emphasis; "largely failed to utilize" TEs in RZ 2025); NBC Sports/Spotrac (3yr/$30M, $20M gtd); PFF via search (57.4 overall grade 34/37, 58.1 receiving 36/37, 71.3 pass-block 6th); FantasyPros/Derek Brown Sep 2025 (2024 YPRR splits 2.03 with Evans/Godwin out, 1.39 otherwise).
UNVERIFIED (marked in-table): exact 2025 RZ/end-zone target counts, exact inline/slot/detached %, exact run-block/pass-block snap rates, provider xFP.