TB
@CIN
CLE
MIN
GB
@DAL
PIT
@CAR
ATL
@CHI
@DET
LAC
@BAL
NO
LARBaker Mayfield — QB, TB — 2026
Verdict
TARGET (medium confidence) at ADP 120.3 / QB17 (FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07). The market's case is fair: Mayfield fell from 22.5 to 16.6 PPG in league scoring (QB4 → ~QB16-19 PPG; nflverse weekly, pulled 2026-07-07; Fantasy Life has him 16.0 PPG/QB18, 2026), lost Mike Evans to SF, turned 31, and led the NFL with 28 turnover-worthy plays (PFF via roundtable.io/pewterreport, searched 2026-07-07). Why the market is wrong: it is pricing the 2025 raw finish as QB-owned decline when the usage signal says environment catastrophe — he was QB11 in expected fantasy points (260 xFP vs 272 actual; ESPN, 2026-01-07) in a season where the projected OL played zero snaps together, Evans/Godwin/McMillan/Irving missed 37 combined games, he played the second half on a sprained (non-throwing) AC joint, and it was his third OC in three seasons — while every volume signal stayed elite (No. 1 PROE +3.99, 66.1 plays/gm). For 2026 he gets all five OL starters back, a healthy Egbuka/Godwin/Otton top-3, and Zac Robinson — a McVay-tree caller with a top-2 PROE history whom Mayfield lobbied to hire and who coached him in LA in 2022 — in a contract year with $30M guaranteed. QB11 usage at a QB17 price, with the 2024 blueprint (22.5 PPG under scheme-sibling Liam Coen) as the ceiling case, is the asymmetry; the bear case (real QB-owned decline) lands him roughly *at* his price.
Bull case
- QB11 in expected fantasy points (260 xFP — ESPN, 2026-01-07) during an environment catastrophe, priced QB17: five OL starters return from a unit that had zero projected-five snaps together, the top-3 pass-catchers are healthy incumbents, and the same QB was QB4 (22.5 PPG, +0.189 EPA/db, +2.2 CPOE) in 2024 under the last McVay-tree caller — whose close friend and scheme-sibling now calls the plays.
- The volume floor survives the caller change: TB was No. 1 in PROE (+3.99) and Robinson's ATL was No. 2 (+3.85) in 2025 — ~555 attempts is the low-risk base — and his scramble game is genuinely elite per-carry (22.5 yds/gm two straight years, 6.95 YPC, 2nd-best PFF QB rushing grade, rushing usage *rising* over the final six weeks: 27.7 yds/gm).
- Contract-year lock at a backup-QB price: $30M guaranteed, 51 straight starts, no benching risk, OC he hand-picked — at pick 120 you pay replacement price for a QB10–12 median and a QB5–6 ceiling, and 6pt-TD or superflex formats only improve the math.
Bear case
- The QB-owned decline read is live: CPOE swung +2.17 → −1.61 and PFF charged him with an NFL-high 28 turnover-worthy plays (~4.0%) against just 11 INTs — qb.md §12 flags exactly this (high TWP + clean ledger) as luck about to land. Project 13–16 INTs and some multi-pick disasters in a −1 INT league.
- No Konami floor and no TD access on the ground: ~zero designed runs, zero sneaks, outside the top-300 in xTD, goal-line work belongs to Sean Tucker — his rushing is pure scramble yardage, the fragile, coverage-dependent kind, at age 31 where the methodology haircuts it and where *better* protection could shrink it further. He needs the passing environment to deliver every week.
- Evans is gone and the bounce-back is consensus-adjacent: an 11-year 1,000-yard WR1 and career TD anchor left with no proven X replacement (R3 rookie Hurst in a three-way WR3 battle), Godwin has missed 18 games in two seasons, Irving opens camp in rehab — and "Baker bounce-back" is already a mainstream take (Fantasy Life/CBS, 2026), so the discount may compress before draft day.
Projection & comps
Bottom-up, two components (qb.md §3–4, scoring-framework §2), 17-game basis:
Passing (median): 64.5 plays/gm × ~59% dropback share (team profile inputs, 2026-07-07) ≈ 38 dropbacks/gm → ~33 att/gm ≈ ~555 attempts. YPA 7.2, environment-derived (between 2025's 6.80 broken-OL year and 2024's 7.89 healthy year; OL restored + Robinson quick-rhythm/PA scheme, minus Evans) → ~4,000 yds. Pass TDs anchored to rate, not 2024's 7.2% spike: career-normal ~4.8–5.0% × 555 → 27 (2025: 26 on 543 = 4.8%; passing xTD unavailable — UNVERIFIED — rate-anchor used instead). INTs from TWP, not last year's count: 4.0% TWP against only 11 INTs means luck lands → 13.
Rushing (separate — the floor component): base 22.5 yds/gm on 3.24 att/gm (55–382–1, nflverse 2025; nearly identical to 2024's 60–378–3, 22.2/gm), with the last-6-games split *up*, not down: 4.0 att / 27.7 yds per game (nflverse weekly, pulled 2026-07-07). Age-31 haircut on the scramble component (qb.md §3 default) partially offset by the late-2025 uptick and Robinson's stated bootleg/mobility usage (buccaneers.com, May–June 2026) → ~52 carries, 340 yds, 1–2 rush TD (rushing xTD anchor: outside ESPN's top-300 xTD leaderboard for 2025 — ESPN, 2026-01-07 — i.e., ≤~1.5; zero QB sneaks charted in 2025, FTN).
| Floor (20th) | Median (50th) | Ceiling (80th) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stat line | ~3,540–23–14 + 250/1 rush (16.5 gm) | ~4,000–27–13 + 340/1.5 | ~4,380–32–11 + 400/3 |
| Points (league scoring) | 245 | 295 | 345 |
| PPG / rough rank | 14.8 / ~QB18 | 17.4 / ~QB10–12 | 20.3 / ~QB5–6 |
Actuals in this scoring (nflverse weekly, pulled 2026-07-07): 2025 = 282.9 (16.6 PPG; weekly median 17.8, min 4.1, max 26.7); 2024 = 381.8 (22.5 PPG) — the ceiling projection deliberately sits *below* the 41-TD 2024 outlier.
Games risk: low — 51 consecutive starts in three TB seasons, played all 17 in 2025 through the Week 12 left-shoulder AC sprain (Fantasy Life, 2026); 3.2 carries/gm is far below the ≥8/gm heavy-runner nudge threshold.
Comps (veteran in a scheme upgrade, scramble value, no designed-run package): Geno Smith 2022 SEA (4,282–30–11 + 366 rush); Sam Darnold 2024 MIN (4,319–35–12, McVay-tree revival); Baker Mayfield 2023 TB (4,044–28–10, ~QB10, 16.1 PPG); Jared Goff 2023 DET (4,575–30–12, pocket volume); Baker Mayfield 2024 TB (ceiling comp, 381.8 pts).
External sanity check: no data/projections/ dir exists. Fantasy Life (2026) frames him as a classic late-round bounce-back (their ADP feed: pick 116/QB20) with a Burrow-2023-style injury-year PPG dip (16.1 → 21.5 → 16.0); CBS/Fantasy Life consensus sees "top-10 upside priced near QB20" — directionally identical to this projection.
Usage profile (opportunity core, qb.md §2)
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | Band | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rush att/gm | 3.53 | 3.24 | Between Concern (<2.5) and Good (4–7) | Modest but remarkably stable; last 6 games of 2025: 4.0/gm |
| Designed rush rate | ~0% | ~0% | Concern (<2%) | 377 of 382 rush yds were scrambles (PFF via search, 2026-07-07); 1 sneak in 2024, 0 in 2025 (FTN charting, pulled 2026-07-07) |
| Scramble rate | est. ~6–7%/db | est. ~6.5–7%/db | Elite band — estimate | ~40–45 scrambles implied by 55 carries minus kneels (exact count UNVERIFIED); out-of-pocket rate 16.6% → 21.9% of charted dropbacks (FTN/participation join, pulled 2026-07-07) |
| Rush yds/gm | 22.2 | 22.5 | Good (20–35) | Elite per-carry value: 6.30 → 6.95 YPC, 29 rushing first downs on 55 carries, +35.7 rushing EPA (nflverse); 356 scramble yds under pressure, 2nd in NFL (buccaneers.com, Nov 2025); PFF 86.8 rushing grade, 2nd of 30 QBs |
| RZ rush share | UNVERIFIED | UNVERIFIED | Presumed Concern | No sneak package; Sean Tucker owned goal-line (7 rush TD on 86 carries — nflverse/team profile) |
| Inside-5 carries | UNVERIFIED | ~0–2 (0 sneaks charted) | Concern (≤2) | No QB TD-plunge role |
| Rushing xTD | UNVERIFIED | ≤~1.5 — outside ESPN top-300 xTD (ESPN, 2026-01-07) | Concern (<1.5) | Anchor rush TDs at ~1–1.5, not 2024's 3 |
| Dropbacks/gm | 35.9 (excl. scrambles) | 34.1 (excl.), ~36.5 incl. | Good (33–38) | 543 att + 36 sacks + est. scrambles, 17 gm (nflverse) |
| Pass att/gm | 33.5 | 31.9 | Good (30–35) | Volume floor intact through a broken season |
| Team PROE | top-5 era (Coen) | +3.99, No. 1 (statrankings via team profile, fetched 2026-07-07) | Elite (≥+3%) | New caller Robinson ran +3.85, No. 2 at ATL 2025 — the pass tilt survives the caller change |
| xFP | UNVERIFIED | 260 (QB11), 15.3/gm; actual 272 (ESPN xFP leaderboard, 2026-01-07) | QB1/2 fringe — top-12 usage | The single best mispricing datapoint: QB11 usage, QB17 price |
Archetype (qb.md §10): pocket volume passer with a real scramble bonus — not a Konami QB. The rushing profile is the fragile kind (high scramble, ~zero designed, no TD access), which is why the floor is "good," not "elite." Pattern match (§11): post-hype adjacent — ADP down ~70 picks year-over-year, new play-caller from a QB-friendly tree, volume intact.
Efficiency & talent signal (qb.md §5)
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA/dropback (pass plays, sacks incl.) | +0.189 (elite) | +0.001 (concern line) | nflverse weekly passing_epa ÷ (att+sacks), pulled 2026-07-07; scrambles excluded — 2025 rushing EPA of +35.7 pulls the all-dropback figure to roughly +0.06 |
| CPOE (NGS) | +2.17 | −1.61 | ngs_passing.csv, pulled 2026-07-07 (nflfastR-weighted: +3.7 → −2.2). The most worrying QB-owned swing — but methodology requires two seasons to believe an efficiency change, and 2023–24 were positive; the shoulder + separation collapse pollute the 2025 read |
| Pressure-to-sack (charted) | 20.6% (40 sacks / 194 pressures) | 17.9% (36 / 201) | nflverse participation join, pulled 2026-07-07 — mid band, improved during the OL chaos; QB-owned trait holding |
| TWP rate (PFF) | 3.3% | ~4.0% — 28 TWPs, led NFL (PFF via roundtable.io/pewterreport/X, searched 2026-07-07) | vs only 11 INTs: INTs below TWP = luck about to land (qb.md §12 red flag) — hence 13 projected INTs and PFF's own "likely to throw more INTs" list |
| INT-worthy rate (FTN, charted, per coverage-charted dropback) | 2.94% (21/715) | 2.17% (15/690) | FTN's stricter INT-only definition disagrees with PFF (which counts fumble-worthy plays — Mayfield had 3 sack-fumbles lost). Noted, not resolved; the INT projection uses the harsher PFF read |
| aDOT (NGS intended air yds) | 6.82 (checkdown band) | 8.12 (healthy band) | Depth profile fine; NGS aggressiveness 10.9% → 17.5% (more tight-window throws with backups protecting/rookie separating) |
| Deep-ball rate (20+ air yds) | UNVERIFIED | UNVERIFIED | participation air-yards column unpopulated in cache; no reliable web figure found this run |
| Play-action rate (per charted dropback) | 18.9% | 16.8% (concern, <18%) | FTN join, pulled 2026-07-07. Robinson ran 20.6% at ATL 2025 (team profile) — free-efficiency tailwind |
| Pressure rate faced (charted) | 27.1% | 29.1% | participation join; 2025 unit still 15th in PBWR despite zero OL continuity (ESPN win rates, 2026-01-06) |
QB-owned vs environment-owned: pressure-to-sack (improved under duress), scramble ability (career-best per-carry value), and the Robinson relationship travel with him. YPA (6.80), PA rate (16.8%), and the TD-rate crash re-derive from the 2026 environment — better on every axis. CPOE and TWP are the two QB-owned marks that genuinely deteriorated; they are what caps confidence at medium. Mid-season split makes the environment story concrete: ~240 pass yds/gm with an 8:1 TD:INT through 10 games, then <188 yds/gm with 10 TD / 9 INT after the injuries stacked (FantasyData/CBS pages via search, 2026-07-07).
Context (from data/team-profiles/TB.md, built 2026-07-07)
- Play-caller: Zac Robinson (ex-ATL OC, McVay tree), hired 2026-01-22 after Grizzard was fired 2026-01-08; Mayfield "made a significant push" for him (ESPN, Jan 2026) and worked with him in LA in late 2022. Top-2 PROE at ATL 2025 (+3.85) with a compromised QB room; 20.6% PA, 53% motion, 22.9% RB target share. Robinson has publicly stressed using Mayfield's mobility — bootlegs/keepers, "added emphasis on the ground attack" read as balance, not run-first (buccaneers.com, May–June 2026). Year-1 install drag is real: 4th OC in 4 years, expect simpler menus early.
- O-line: all five starters return — Wirfs (96% PBWR, 3rd among OTs — ESPN 2026-01-06), Barton, Mauch (back from season-ending surgery), Bredeson, Goedeke. The 2025 projected five played zero snaps together (Bucs Report, 2026-07-07). Protection mean-reversion is the quietest, biggest input in this eval.
- Weapons: Egbuka (127 tgt, 23.5% TS, 36.3% air-yard share as a rookie R1), Godwin back in his peak slot role per Robinson-specific reporting, Otton extended, Gainwell imported for the Robinson RB-target role, Irving in shoulder rehab (expected during camp). Evans → SF: 107–160 of 541 targets vacated (~20–30%) — below the 40% continuity red line (qb.md §4), so partial efficiency carryover is legitimate.
- Job security: none better at this price — $30M for 2026 guaranteed (CBS/SI, 2026), backup is Jake Browning (tier B). Extension "not anywhere close" (NFL.com, June 2026); Graziano expects no long-term deal before the season but possibly an adjustment (Bucs Report, 2026-07-06); Mayfield says he'll focus on football once camp opens July 28 (SI, July 2026). Contract-year QB with zero benching risk; holdout signal: none.
- Script: Vegas win total 8.5 (DraftKings, as-of 2026-07-07) → neutral lean; team profile projects 64.5 plays/gm, ~33.5 att/gm, ~59% dropback share.
Tripwires (re-run this eval if any fire)
- ADP rises inside ~pick 95 / QB12 — the edge is the price; at a starter price this profile is a HOLD at best (dead-zone band, qb.md §9).
- Contract standoff escalates past the July 28 camp report date into a holdout or trade demand (the deadline passing quietly is noise, per the team profile).
- Godwin setback or Egbuka injury in camp — the receiving-corps leg of the thesis; losing either drops the YPA/TD anchors materially.
- Camp/preseason shows Robinson running a run-first, low-PROE install — stated "ground-attack emphasis" turning into a bottom-half pass rate would break the volume leg.
- Interior OL breaks again (Mauch post-surgery or Bredeson injured/benched in August) — the protection mean-reversion leg.
Sources
data/stats/2025/&data/stats/2024/— passing.csv, rushing.csv, ngs_passing.csv, weekly.csv, ftn_charting.csv, participation.csv, pbp_summary.csv (nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07): stat lines, aDOT/CPOE/aggressiveness/TTT (NGS), EPA sums, league-scoring points/weekly splits, and the FTN/participation joins (coverage-charted-dropback denominator, matching the team-profile method: 715 db 2024 / 690 db 2025; pressure 27.1%/29.1%; INT-worthy 21/15; PA 18.9%/16.8%; out-of-pocket 16.6%/21.9%; QB sneaks 1/0).data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv— ADP 120.3, QB17 among ffc-ppr rows (QB16 Nix 115.6, QB18 Love 130.0).data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json— age 31 (DOB 1995-04-14), 8 years exp, Oklahoma, injury_status: none.data/team-profiles/TB.md(built 2026-07-07) — Robinson hire/history/PROE, OL detail, depth chart/vacated targets, Vegas 8.5, volume inputs, Browning, contract facts.- ESPN xFP QB leaderboard, 2026-01-07 (fetched 2026-07-07): Mayfield 260 xFP / 272 actual / QB11 / 17 gm. ESPN xTD leaderboard, 2026-01-07 (fetched 2026-07-07): Mayfield outside top 300 (rushing xTD ≤~1.5 inferred).
- PFF via search (2026-07-07): 377 scramble yards, 86.8 rushing grade (2nd of 30 QBs), 28 TWPs led NFL / ~4.0% TWP rate (roundtable.io "likely to throw more INTs", pewterreport, X/Wendell Ferreira); 630 PFF dropbacks.
- buccaneers.com (Nov 2025): 356 scramble yards under pressure, 2nd in NFL; 14th in QB rush attempts, 5th in explosive runs; (May–June 2026): Robinson bootleg/mobility plans, "retooled offense".
- Fantasy Life (2026, fetched 2026-07-07): 16.0 PPG / QB18, Week 12 left-shoulder AC sprain, 16.1/21.5/16.0 three-year PPG, their ADP 116/QB20. FantasyData/CBS pages via search (2026-07-07): 10-game vs late-season splits (240+ yds/gm, 8:1 TD:INT → <188 yds/gm, 10:9).
- Contract/news (searched 2026-07-07): NFL.com (June 2026, "not anywhere close"), Bucs Report/Yardbarker (Graziano, 2026-07-06), SI (camp-deadline framing; no holdout signal).
- UNVERIFIED (marked in-table): exact scramble count, RZ rush share, inside-5 carries, passing xTD, deep-ball rate, ATL 2024 Robinson tendencies.