Don't Look at My Team

Gunnar Helm (TE, TEN) — 2026 evaluation

Scoring note: evaluated in half-PPR, 6pt pass TD, no TE premium per methodology/league-settings.md (confirmed 2026-07-08). The dispatch instruction to "assume full PPR" predated that confirmation and is superseded; other 2026 evals were rescored to the same basis. No TE premium → punt-tier posture is the league default (te.md §7). Full-PPR reference: add ~0.5 × receptions (median ≈ 124, ceiling ≈ 163) — the verdict does not change in either basis.

Verdict

TARGET (medium confidence) at mock-undrafted — absent from FFC PPR mocks (2026-07-07); carried only as a Sleeper search-rank tail row in data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv (2026-07-08). Judged as a final-round / waiver price. Helm is the classic free-square TE dart: a year-2, age-23 TE1 whose predecessor (Okonkwo, 79 targets) left in free agency with no draft capital added behind him, whose rookie earning rate was elite-band (TPRR ~0.22, YPRR 1.45 on a 43% part-time route role), and whose new staff is publicly designing the receiving role for him (Bellinger signed as the "dirty work" blocker; Saleh's "real dude" OTA praise). Why the market is wrong: it is pricing the rookie box score (44-357-2, TE34-ish, 4.4 half-PPR PPG) and lumping him with the Noah Gray tier, instead of pricing the role change — which per scoring-framework §3 is believable immediately because it is depth-chart-driven, not efficiency-driven. This is TARGET and not more because the honest projection is capped: Daboll's play-calling stops have never fed a TE1 more than ~75 targets, a $70M slot WR (Robinson) eats the exact MOF targets TEs live on, the offense projects bottom-8 (6.5 win total), and the athletic pedigree (RAS 4.33) forecloses the pay-up tier. He is a hold-two/stream punt piece with a fringe-TE1 ceiling and a 2027 year-3 case — not a league-winner.

Bull case

The job is his and the team built around that fact: Okonkwo's 79-target TE1 role left for Washington; Tennessee's only additions were a $14M-guaranteed *blocker* whose stated purpose is to absorb the dirty work "to let Helm graduate as a receiver," a depth vet, and an R7 conversion project. Kuharsky's depth chart, Sleeper's depth chart, and every June beat report have Helm as the unanimous TE1 — a §10 green flag ("TE1 departed, no capital added") with the role expansion coached-in, not projected-in.
The rookie earning rate is the signal the tail of the draft never has: TPRR ~0.22 (0.19 even on the conservative snap denominator) with 80% catch rate and 1.45 YPRR, on a route share that climbed all season (~35% → ~50-56%) — the exact "routes are the only missing piece" profile te.md §10 flags as a buy, now paired with the routes opening.
Free, young, ascending, with a real TD path: age 23, year 2, 8 inside-20 targets in a part-time rookie role, on an offense adding a No. 4 overall WR and returning a No. 1 overall QB in year 2 — the median case is Okonkwo-2025 for free, the p80 is a TE12–14 season, and the year-3 2027 breakout screen is already three-quarters lit (dynasty-relevant even where the 2026 redraft case stalls).

Bear case

Daboll offenses starve the TE: his TE1s have never cleared 75 targets across five play-calling seasons; NYG 2024 gave the entire TE room 11.6% of targets while the alpha WR and slot ate 45%+ — and Tennessee just paid $70M for the slot (Robinson) whose 4.8-aDOT middle-of-field role is precisely the target territory a low-aDOT TE needs. Helm is 4th in the pecking order on a caller who concentrates volume on spots 1–2.
The profile has no juice: aDOT 5.4, −0.81 YAC over expected, 2 explosive plays, RAS 4.33, speed score 23rd percentile, day-3 capital, breakout-at-22 college résumé — every ceiling input te.md §9 says matters most at TE points down. Even the p80 outcome (~7.7 PPG) barely reaches the streamer baseline; this is a floor profile on a bottom-8 projected offense (6.5 win total) in a year-1 install with two unresolved interior OL spots.
The "receiving TE1" role is June prose, not August film: no 2025 alignment/pass-block data verifies him as a route-runner rather than a blocker-plus; the same front office guaranteed Bellinger $14M, and if camp shows heavy 12-personnel with Helm inline chipping — or Granson/Bellinger running routes with the 1s — the entire thesis inverts while his 2025 RP (43%) says part-time player.

Projection & comps

Bottom-up, 17-game team basis: ~62 plays/g × ~60% dropback ≈ 37 dropbacks/g → ~630 team dropbacks, ~561 attempts (~33/g) (team profile, 2026-07-07).

Scenario	Games	RP	Routes	TPRR	Targets	Rec (~76%)	Yds (~6.6/tgt)	TD	Half-PPR pts	PPG
Floor (p20)	15	~58%	~355	0.14	50	38	330	2	~64	4.3
Median (p50)	16–17	~68%	~425	0.165	70	53	465	4	~98	6.0
Ceiling (p80)	17	~76%	~475	0.185	88	66	590	6	~130	7.7

RP band logic: Daboll's most recent TE1 (Theo Johnson, NYG 2024) ran 62.5% of charted pass plays (computed from data/stats/2024/participation.csv, 2026-07-07); Okonkwo ran 70.1% in this same TEN role in 2025 (computed 2026-07-07). Median 68% assumes the Bellinger-blocks/Helm-runs-routes design holds; ceiling 76% assumes it holds *and* 12-personnel routes tilt to Helm.
TPRR regression: rookie 0.22 (on ~246 implied routes — just above the ~200-route trust bar, te.md §2) is regressed to 0.165 median because target competition rises sharply (Robinson $70M slot + Tate 1.04 + Ridley retained vs 2025's thin room) and Daboll TE1s historically earn 8–12% TS. Median TS ≈ 12.5% (70/561).
TD anchor (xTD): 8 targets inside the 20 as a rookie (atozsports, 2026-06) with 2 TD on a 15-pass-TD offense. Ward year-2 pass TDs projected ~21–23; TE share ~18% → xTD ≈ 3.5–4 median, 6 at p80 if the red-zone design materializes (Daboll's Knox hit 9 TDs in 2021 on 71 targets — the TD-spike precedent, not the base case). End-zone target count UNVERIFIED — TD ceiling held modest accordingly.
Games risk: low — missed only wk 18 as a rookie (toe, injuries.csv); no surgery reported, full OTA/minicamp participation with no injury mentions (Yardbarker/atozsports, June 2026).

Comps: Chig Okonkwo 2025 (79 tgt, 56-560-2, 96 half-PPR pts — the same franchise TE1 role, ≈ Helm's median), Cade Otton 2023 (year-2 TE1 inheritor, 67 tgt, 455 yds, 4 TD — median), Theo Johnson 2025 (74 tgt, 7.0 half-PPR PPG, TE19 — the Daboll-tree comp), AJ Barner 2025 (year-2 day-3 TE, 68 tgt, TD-supported TE14 — ceiling band), Tucker Kraft 2024 (year-2 day-3 breakout, 50-707-7 — the stretch ceiling Helm's YAC profile probably can't reach). External projections: none in data/projections/ (directory absent).

Usage profile (te.md §2 table)

2025 rookie season, 16 games. Routes are external (YPRR-implied); the conservative denominator is my charted pass-snap count from participation.csv.

Metric	2025	Band / read
Route participation	~43% season proxy (on-field for 288 of 672 charted TEN pass plays, computed 2026-07-07); ~246 implied true routes (1.45 YPRR external ÷ 357 yds) ≈ 39% RP. Trend: ~35% wks 1–4 → ~50–56% wks 11–17	Fails the <55% gate on 2025 numbers — but §3 positional-change protocol applies: Okonkwo (70.1%) departed, Helm is the unanimous TE1, so 2026 is re-projected from the new role, not the old share. The rising rookie trend supports the ramp
TPRR	0.224 (55 tgt / 246 implied routes); conservative floor 0.191 (55/288 pass snaps incl. any blocking)	Elite band (≥0.22) even at the conservative bound it's good-band — the §10 green flag: "TPRR ≥0.20 with RP <75%, routes are the only missing piece"
YPRR	1.45 (RotoWire/FantasyPros via web, 2026-07-07)	Good band (1.4–1.8) — real earning, not checkdown noise, though aDOT-light
Target share	10.4% (receiving.csv); wks 12–13 spiked to 18.4% / 20.0% (weekly.csv)	Concern band full-season — but as TE2 behind a 14.9%-TS starter. Late spikes show the earning appetite
RZ target share	8 targets inside the 20 (atozsports, 2026-06); share UNVERIFIED	Promising raw count for a 43%-route TE2; beat framing is "red-zone focal point under Daboll"
End-zone targets	UNVERIFIED	TD projection anchored to inside-20 count instead
Detached rate	UNVERIFIED exact — described as inline / H-back / slot mix (NFL.com, PlayerProfiler, 2026-07-07); pass-block snap rate UNVERIFIED	The 2026 design intent is documented (receiver-type usage, Gronk/Kincaid/Knox clips — Helm quote, Yardbarker 2026-06-11), but no charted 2025 alignment split available
xFP	UNVERIFIED (no provider xFP export). Actual: 4.36 half-PPR PPG (69.7 pts/16 g, computed); PlayerProfiler FPPG 5.7 PPR (#34)	Streamer range as used in 2025; the eval is a role bet, not a usage carry-forward
aDOT / catch / YAC	aDOT 5.4, catch 80.0%, separation 3.52, YAC/rec 3.93 vs 4.75 expected (−0.81 xYAC delta) (ngs_receiving.csv, 2026-07-07)	Short-area, high-catch MOF outlet profile — stable floor, no juice after the catch. Ceiling must come from volume + red zone, not explosives (2 explosive plays, PlayerProfiler)

2×2 read: sub-55% RP + ≥0.19 TPRR = the textbook expansion candidate (buy) quadrant — with the expansion mechanism (TE1 vacancy + blocking TE2 signed) already in place rather than hoped for.

Archetype (§8): Receiving Y in training — inline-capable (his rookie blocking drew positive beat reviews) with coached-in receiver usage; not a detached alpha (athleticism doesn't support it). Scheme-dependent on Daboll — auto-recheck on any OC change.

Pedigree / breakout screen (§9, prospect-pedigree.md): R4.120, 2025 (tennesseetitans.com) — day-3 capital, "punt-price darts only" band. College: one-year senior breakout at 22 (breakout age 21st pctile), 60-786-7 — led Texas in receptions, 5th among FBS TEs, Mackey semifinalist (clears the "top-2 in team receiving" screen; 13.1% dominator misses the ≥15% line), no early declare. Testing: RAS 4.33 (ras.football, 2025-03), 4.84 40 (run on an ankle sprained mid-combine — a real excuse for the speed number, but speed score 23rd pctile and PlayerProfiler athleticism #25 of 28 TEs say weak tester regardless). Per te.md §9, weak testers with late capital almost never reach the pay-up tier — ceiling capped at fringe-TE1 on pedigree alone. The year-3 screen (day-2+ capital, yr-2 RP climbing, TPRR ≥0.18 part-time, routes opening) hits on 3 of 4 legs a year early — the capital leg misses by a round. 2026 is his "RP climbing" year; the classic breakout calendar says 2027. Age 23, NFL year 2 — pre-peak, ascending side of the curve.

Context (data/team-profiles/TEN.md, built 2026-07-07)

Offense quality — the cap: 6.5 win total (BetMGM, 2026-07-07) = bottom-8 projected offense → te.md §5 caps any TE at streamer range absent elite usage (RP ≥80% + TS ≥20%, which Helm won't have). Regime year 1 (Saleh/Daboll), stability low, install drag expected; interior OL is two open camp battles (C, RG) after a 55-sack season — pressure hurts TEs doubly (chip assignments + compressed offense), though Daboll's quick-game E-P system is the announced fix.
QB: Ward year 2 — 15 TD / 7 INT rookie season, but continuity plus a play-caller hired to develop him. If Ward misses time, the team profile's contingency line explicitly holds Helm's value under Trubisky (checkdown/screen tilt).
Play-caller TE history — the volume governor: Daboll's called offenses feed the alpha WR at historic volume (Diggs 2020, Nabers 170 tgt / 30.7% TS 2024) and a huge short-aDOT slot role (Robinson 140 tgt, 4.8 aDOT, NYG 2024) — the TE is third fiddle at best. NYG 2024 TE room: 64 combined targets, ~11.6% room TS; Theo Johnson 7.8% TS at 62.5% pass-snap rate (computed 2026-07-07). BUF: Knox peaked at 71 targets (TD-driven 2021). Camp messaging ("Daboll's not afraid to use the tight end") is intent; the record says 43–75 targets.
12-personnel / TE2 tax: Daboll's NYG 2024 12-rate was 15.0% (computed 2026-07-07) — not a 2TE-heavy caller. Bellinger (3yr/$21M, $14.01M gtd) is real TE2 money but with an explicitly defined blocking job ("dirty worker" — atozsports 2026-06-14); his target claim is trivial (17 tgt under Daboll 2024, 26 in 2025; 29.2% pass-snap rate under Daboll). Granson and R7.225 Kanak are depth. No rounds-1–3 TE was drafted — the §10 red flag is absent, and the §6 route-tax reads as absorbed by design rather than splitting Helm's routes.
Target hierarchy (§6): Robinson (slot, $70M/$38M gtd) → Tate (R1.4) → Ridley (Z, restructured) → Helm (4th) → Pollard/Spears. Elite TE seasons come from top-2 in the hierarchy; Helm isn't close. The Robinson signing is the specific §10 red flag — "high-capital slot WR arrival" — because his 4.8-aDOT MOF role overlaps Helm's habitat exactly. Offsets: Ridley is 31 coming off a 7-game season, Tate is a rookie, and 164 targets vacated (Okonkwo's 79 among them) — the hierarchy below Robinson is softer than it looks on paper.
PA rate: Daboll NYG 2024 ~23.7% of dropbacks (computed 2026-07-07) — just under the ≥25% boost line; mildly TE-friendly (LB displacement) but not a scheme subsidy.

Scarcity-tier placement (te.md §7)

Punt tier (TE9+), and the price is beneath even that. Streamer baseline: 2025 half-PPR TE12 ≈ 8.5 PPG season-long (computed from receiving.csv, 2026-07-08) + 0.5–1.0 streaming bump ≈ 9.0–9.5 PPG. Helm's median (~6.0 PPG) is −3 PPG vs baseline; his ceiling (~7.7 PPG) is roughly baseline-minus. He is emphatically not pay-up-worthy and can't be a dead-zone trap (there is no round-5–8 price to defend) — he is a punt-tier role bet whose entire edge is that he costs nothing while carrying a live, coached-in path to fringe-TE1 volume. No TE premium (confirmed 2026-07-08) keeps punt-the-position as the league's default posture, which is exactly the build he fits: TE2 dart in a hold-two/stream construction, or the first TE waiver claim when a starter disappoints. A +0.5/rec premium would add ~2.5 PPG to his reception-heavy median and push him toward draftable-late — re-run only if scoring changes.

Tripwires (void this eval; re-run)

Camp/preseason shows Bellinger or Granson running receiving routes with the 1s, or Helm's preseason route rate <60% — the role-expansion thesis inverts to a 2TE committee.
Camp alignment reports keep Helm inline/blocking (run-block emphasis, pass-block reps rising) despite the June "receiver usage" quotes — re-project as blocking-plus Y, verdict decays to AVOID at any real price.
Toe recurrence or new soft-tissue issue in camp — floor scenario becomes the base case.
ADP rises inside ~pick 140 / TE14 on the OTA hype — the free-price edge is gone; at a real pick the sub-baseline median makes him HOLD-to-FADE.
TEN adds a veteran receiving TE or Ward's camp goes badly enough that the win total drops ≥1.5 — the offense-quality cap tightens below even the punt case.

Sources

data/stats/2025/receiving.csv, weekly.csv, snap_counts.csv, ngs_receiving.csv, injuries.csv, participation.csv; data/stats/2024/ receiving, participation, rosters — nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07. Helm/Okonkwo/Theo Johnson/Bellinger pass-snap rates, half-PPR TE leaderboard and TE12 baseline, weekly TS computed from these tables 2026-07-08.
data/team-profiles/TEN.md — built/verified 2026-07-07 (Daboll history, hierarchy, vacated targets, OL, win total, volume projections).
data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json — age 23, DOB 2002-09-06, Texas, yrs_exp 1, depth_chart_order 1 (TE), search_rank 153.
data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv — Helm absent from FFC PPR mocks (2026-07-07); sleeper-searchrank tail row, blank ADP (2026-07-08).
tennesseetitans.com — drafted R4, pick 120 (2025-04); roster page.
PlayerProfiler (fetched 2026-07-08): college dominator 13.1% (59th pctile), breakout age 22.0 (21st pctile), 40 = 4.84 (31st), speed score 88.5 (23rd), athleticism #25/28 TEs, FPPG 5.7 PPR (#34).
ras.football via X (2025-03): RAS 4.33 official (combine 40 run on ankle sprained during a false start — tennesseetitans.com/PlayerProfiler draft coverage, 2025).
Sports-Reference CFB / cfbstats (fetched 2026-07-08): 2024 Texas — 60-786-7 (led team in receptions; 236 career rec yds prior); Mackey semifinalist, 2nd-team All-SEC.
RotoWire / FantasyPros player pages (fetched 2026-07-08): 1.45 YPRR 2025; inline/H-back/slot alignment description.
atozsports (2026-06-14): Helm/Bellinger "real dude"/"dirty worker" role division; 8 targets inside the 20; breakout-candidates piece (2026-06).
Yardbarker Titans OTAs Notebook (2026-06-11): Daboll TE usage intrigue, Helm's Gronk/Kincaid/Knox quote, Saleh praise, no injury notes.
UNVERIFIED: 2025 detached (slot/wide) rate, pass-block snap rate, end-zone target count, season RZ target share, MOF-vs-boundary target mix, provider xFP, pro-day 40 result.