Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TB — team profile

Built per methodology/team-context.md. Every number needs a source + as-of date or the UNVERIFIED mark. Position evals cite this file; they do not re-research it.

2025 context: the offense regressed hard under first-year OC Josh Grizzard — 21st in yards/game (320.4) and 18th in points/game (22.4) after finishing 3rd/4th under Liam Coen in 2024 (NFL.com, Jan 2026) — despite the NFL's No. 1 PROE (+3.99, statrankings.com, fetched 2026-07-07) and 66.1 plays/game (nflverse pbp_summary, pulled 2026-07-07). The real story was attrition: the projected starting OL played zero snaps together (Bucs Report, 2026-07-07), Bucky Irving missed 7 games, Godwin 8, Evans 9, McMillan 13 — and rookie R1 Emeka Egbuka led the team with 127 targets. Bowles fired Grizzard on 2026-01-08 (ESPN/NFL.com) and hired Zac Robinson (ex-ATL OC, McVay tree) on 2026-01-22; Mike Evans then left for SF in March, ending the 11-year era.

Play-caller

• Calls plays: Zac Robinson, OC — NEW; confirmed ("new play caller Zac Robinson" — CBS Sports fantasy, 2026; buccaneers.com introductory-presser coverage, Jan 2026). Hired 2026-01-22 after two seasons as ATL's OC/play-caller (NFL.com/ESPN, 2026-01-22). Mayfield "made a significant push" for the hire (ESPN, Jan 2026). Coaching-change protocol (methodology §9) applied: all TB 2025 tendency stats below are Grizzard's and void for 2026 projection.
• Tenure with team: Year 1 · Prior relationship with QB1: LAR passing-game coordinator/QB coach during Mayfield's late-2022 Rams stint (NFL.com, Jan 2026); Robinson is Mayfield's 4th OC in 4 TB years (Canales '23, Coen '24, Grizzard '25, Robinson '26). Robinson and Coen are close friends from the McVay staff — reporting projects the 2026 offense to look more like Coen's 2024 TB offense than Grizzard's 2025 (pewterreport/buccaneers.com, 2026).

Last 3 play-calling stops (skip non-calling years — LAR 2022-23 was a non-calling PGC role):

Read: A McVay-tree caller who ran a top-2 PROE (+3.85) even with a compromised QB room in 2025 — pass-tilted by instinct, quick-rhythm timing throws, PA near the high band, and a healthy 22.9% RB target share that made Bijan a target hog. His extreme 12/13-personnel usage in ATL was Pitts-shaped, not dogma: in Tampa the bodies are three starting-caliber WRs (Egbuka/Godwin/McMillan) plus one TE (Otton), so expect 11-personnel to rebound well above ATL's 37.6% while the RB-target and PA/motion signatures travel. Public comments stress "added emphasis on the ground attack" and using Mayfield's mobility/bootlegs (buccaneers.com, May-June 2026) — read that as balance restoration, not a run-first identity. Year-1 install drag applies: slower pace and simpler menus early, truer tendencies by midseason.

QB situation

• QB1: Baker Mayfield — final year of 3-yr/$100M; TB reworked the deal to guarantee his $30M for 2026 (CBS Sports/SI, 2026); extension talks open but "not anywhere close," Mayfield set a training-camp deadline (NFL.com, June 2026); UFA after 2026. Benching risk: none — contract-year QB1 on a team that guaranteed his money and hired the OC he lobbied for. 2025: 543 att, 3,693 yds, 26 TD / 11 INT, 36 sacks, 17 starts; 55 carries, 382 rush yds (nflverse passing/rushing.csv, pulled 2026-07-07).
• Backup: Jake Browning (1-yr FA deal, 2026-03-13 — buccaneers.com tracker) — tier B: functional spot-starter (7-3 as CIN's 2023 fill-in), but the offense compresses — aDOT down, screens/checkdowns up.
• Contingency line: If Mayfield misses time: Browning, tier B — expect a ~3-5% pass-rate trim, lower aDOT, more quick game; Egbuka's downfield/boundary usage is hurt most, while Godwin (slot), Gainwell, and Otton hold most of their value. Mayfield has never missed a start in three TB seasons — games-risk low.

O-line

• Projected starters LT–RT: LT Tristan Wirfs (96% PBWR, 3rd among OT even in a 12-game injury year — ESPN 2026-01-06), LG Ben Bredeson (11 gm in 2025), C Graham Barton (only starter healthy all 2025; bounced between C and LT covering injuries), RG Cody Mauch (2 games in 2025, season-ending surgery — Bucs Report 2026-07-07; healthy for camp), RT Luke Goedeke (11 gm 2025; publicly expects "elite" unit — JoeBucsFan, May 2026). Depth: R5.160 G Billy Schrauth (Notre Dame), swing T Justin Skule (1-yr, 4/6), G Dan Feeney re-signed; 2025 fill-in IOL Mike Jordan graded 10th among IOL in PBWR (96% — ESPN).
• Interior vs edge: Edge is the strength — Wirfs is a top-3 pass-protecting tackle and Goedeke a quality RT; deep game is protected when they're upright. Interior is good-not-elite and carries the health flag: Mauch off season-ending surgery, Bredeson the weakest starter. The 27th RBWR is the number to watch for Irving's efficiency — it was injury-driven, but it's also two straight seasons of mediocre run-blocking. No rookie starters projected.

Scheme family

• Run scheme: Wide/outside zone base (McVay tree) with gap/counter mix — RB profiles that fit: one-cut, lateral-burst backs. Bucky Irving is an ideal fit; Gainwell fits the zone/space role; Tucker is the downhill/short-yardage change-up. Reporting confirms an added ground-game emphasis under Robinson with Mayfield boot/keeper elements attached (buccaneers.com, May 2026).
• Pass-game family: Shanahan/McVay tree — quick-rhythm timing throws, PA (~20%+), motion in the 50%+ band, YAC-friendly intermediate in-breakers. Implications: slot volume is real and schemed (Godwin's peak-usage archetype), mid aDOT, RB targets healthy (22.9% at ATL 2025), option-route/YAC profiles gain. In ATL Robinson leaned 12/13-personnel because of Pitts; in TB expect an 11-personnel rebound — which keeps three WRs on the field and gives the WR3 role (McMillan/Tez Johnson/Hurst) actual fantasy oxygen.

Target/touch hierarchy & vacated math

Departed (2025 targets / carries — nflverse receiving.csv & rushing.csv, pulled 2026-07-07):

• WR Mike Evans — 62 tgt (8 gm) / 0 car (→ SF, 3-yr/$42.4M, 2026-03-12 — ESPN/buccaneers.com tracker)
• RB Rachaad White — 45 tgt / 132 car (→ WAS, 1-yr, 2026-03-13 — buccaneers.com tracker)
• WR Sterling Shepard — 53 tgt / 4 car (UFA, unsigned and not re-signed as of 2026-07-07 — buccaneers.com FA focus; destination UNVERIFIED, presumed departed)
• QB Teddy Bridgewater — (→ DET — buccaneers.com tracker)

Vacated targets: 107 confirmed (160 incl. Shepard) of 541 · Vacated carries: 135 of 472

Arrivals (claim):

• RB Kenneth Gainwell — 2-yr/$14M (2026-03-12 — buccaneers.com tracker/SI). 2025 at PIT: 73 receptions, team-MVP season (SI, 2026). Direct claim on the White passing-down role in a 22.9%-RB-target scheme.
• WR Ted Hurst — R3 #84 (Georgia State; TB traded down 77→84 with GB, adding a 5th). Team projects him as the X/Evans replacement with deep ball skills (buccaneers.com draft recap, April 2026). Day-2 capital = real but not presumptive over incumbents.
• TE Bauer Sharp — R6 #185 (LSU; traded up from 195) — multi-TE-set weapon "under new OC" (buccaneers.com, April 2026).
• WR David Sills — 1-yr (2026-04-07) — camp depth; Robinson familiarity from ATL 2025.
• QB Jake Browning — 1-yr (2026-03-13) — backup claim only.
• Retained: TE Cade Otton — 3-yr extension (2026-03-12); RB Sean Tucker — RFA tender matched; TE Ko Kieft, G Dan Feeney — 1-yr (buccaneers.com tracker, March–April 2026).

Projected pecking order (Yahoo post-draft depth chart, May 2026; Bucs Report WR preview 2026-07-01; CBS/fantasy reporting on Robinson's alignment plans, 2026):

RB committee split: early-down: Bucky Irving (lead back when healthy; 173 carries in 10 gm = 17.3/gm pace in 2025) · passing-down: Kenneth Gainwell (contract + 73-catch résumé; RB coach Skip Peete says the two have "similar skillsets," so this is a 1A/1B blend, not a hard platoon — Bucs Report, May 2026) · goal-line: CONTESTED — Irving vs Sean Tucker (Tucker vultured 7 rush TDs on 86 carries in 2025 and was tendered/matched; Irving's shoulder rehab opens the door early). Watch item: Irving is rehabbing offseason shoulder surgery — Bowles: back "sometime in the summer or the fall"; expected during training camp, not minicamp (Bucs Report/Heavy, 2026-05-27). If Irving misses September, Gainwell is the presumptive lead with Tucker in short-yardage.

Game environment

• Vegas win total: 8.5 (DraftKings, over −140 / under +115; BetMGM prices 9+ wins at +110 — both as-of 2026-07-07 search via CBS/BetMGM). Market drifted down from the 9.5 tier after the offseason losses (CBS Sports, 2026) → script lean: neutral (7.5–9 band).
• Projected plays/game: ~64.5 · Projected pass rate: ~59% (dropback share)
• Projected pass attempts/game: ~33.5 · rush attempts/game: ~27 (inputs shown)
• Inputs: TB 2025 = 66.1 plays/gm, 61.4% pass-play rate, actual 32.8 att/gm + 2.2 sacks/gm, 27.8 carries/gm incl. Mayfield 3.2 (nflverse pbp_summary/passing/rushing.csv, pulled 2026-07-07). Robinson's ATL 2025 = 63.5 plays/gm, 57.2% pass. Both stops were top-2 PROE, so the pass tilt survives the caller change; year-1 install drag + stated run-game emphasis + neutral 8.5 win total trim volume modestly: 64.5 × 0.59 ≈ 38 dropbacks − ~2.2 sacks − ~2.3 scrambles ≈ 33.5 attempts; 64.5 × 0.41 ≈ 26.5 designed rushes + scrambles ≈ 27 carries.

Defensive identity

Per methodology §8 — consumed by DST evals (dst.md §3) and /weekly-edge coverage-matchup reads (in-season.md §2).

• Runs the defense: Todd Bowles (HC) — confirmed incumbent. TB carries no titled defensive coordinator; Bowles has called the defense throughout his Tampa tenure and reporting confirms he is not expected to hire a DC and will keep calling it in 2026 (SI.com "Will Todd Bowles give up play calling?" / A to Z Sports, Jan–Feb 2026). Co-DC Larry Foote (OLBs), PGC George Edwards, and ILB coach Mike Caldwell remain; new DL coach Marcus West (from BUF) after Charlie Strong was let go (pewterreport/buccaneers.com, Feb 2026).
• Tenure with team: 8th season running this defense (DC 2019–21, HC/caller 2022–) · New DC: no (dc_new: false) — 2025 scheme stats remain valid. Continuity green flag is partial: same caller ≥2 yrs yes, but top-8 defensive snap retention fails (Dean/David/Izien/Gray/Reddick out).
• Front/scheme family: 3-4 base / hybrid odd front, heavy simulated-pressure and blitz menu — the signature Bowles identity.

Supporting: 22 takeaways, 24.2 PA/gm, EPA/play allowed +0.013 (def_summary 2025); RSWR 30% (19th — ESPN 2026-01-06).

• Key defensive arrivals/departures (edge rushers and CB1 first):
• IN — edge Rueben Bain Jr., R1 #15 (Miami; FBS-high 83 pressures in 2025 — buccaneers.com draft recap, April 2026). Premium edge capital; pairs with YaYa Diaby (15% PRWR, 13th among edges; 31% RSWR, 4th — ESPN 2026-01-06).
• OUT — edge Haason Reddick: 1-yr deal expired; unsigned league-wide as of July 2026 (ProFootballNetwork, July 2026) — only 2.5 sacks in 13 injury-marred games, so the production loss is minimal; Bain + vet Al-Quadin Muhammad (1-yr, 3/12) replace the snaps.
• OUT — CB Jamel Dean → PIT (3-yr/$36.5M, March 2026 — buccaneers.com tracker): 660 defensive snaps vacated (snap_counts 2025). CB room is now CB1 Zyon McCollum (766 snaps) + 2025 R2 Benjamin Morrison (359 snaps, presumptive boundary starter) + 2025 R3 Jacob Parrish (746 snaps, primarily nickel), with R4.116 DB Keionte Scott added (April 2026 draft). Young, ascending, but Dean's departure is a real CB1-adjacent subtraction.
• OUT — ILB Lavonte David retired 2026-03-23 (buccaneers.com tracker) after 14 seasons; replaced by FA Alex Anzalone (2-yr, 3/12), R2 #46 Josiah Trotter, and Christian Rozeboom — off-ball moves, minor fantasy impact but a real green-dot/communication loss.
• Other: OUT DL Logan Hall (→HOU), S Christian Izien (nickel, →DET), S J.T. Gray (→PHI); IN DL A'Shawn Robinson, Rakeem Nuñez-Roches (return), S Miles Killebrew, R5 DT DeMonte Capehart. Core stays: Vita Vea, Calijah Kancey, Diaby, Antoine Winfield Jr. (1,038 snaps), Tykee Smith (893).
• Shadow-CB tendency: no established shadow — Bowles plays sides/matchup-zone with heavy pressure rather than traveling a CB1; McCollum has no documented travel history and the 2026 deployment of Morrison/Parrish is untested (tendency UNVERIFIED beyond scheme inference; re-check vs. Wk 1–4 charting).

Read: The league's most reliable blitz-heavy identity — 34% blitz, 34% charted pressure, balanced-zone behind it — returns with its caller for an 8th year, which makes TB a classic boom/bust DST with a genuine pressure floor, now adding R1 edge capital (Bain) to the NFL's 11th-ranked pass-rush win rate. The risk is the back seven turnover: Dean's 660 snaps at corner and David's brain at ILB are gone, so early-season coverage busts against man-beating X receivers (McCollum/Morrison side) are the soft spot for /weekly-edge to probe; blitz-heavy + young corners also upgrades opposing hot-route slots and RB outlets.

Stability & change log

• Stability: medium — per methodology §10: exactly one major offensive change — a new play-caller (Robinson), which caps the rating at medium per §9 regardless. Everything else reads high-stability: same QB1 (Mayfield, 4th year, money guaranteed), 5/5 OL starters returning, and the top of the target hierarchy (Egbuka/Godwin/Otton) is incumbent. Offsetting risks that keep it firmly medium rather than arguable-high: Evans' 11-year WR1 presence is gone, Irving opens camp rehabbing shoulder surgery, Godwin's 18 missed games over two seasons, and the WR3 job is an open three-way battle. Defensive turnover (Dean, David, Reddick out; Bain in) travels in §8, not this rating; dc_new: false.
• Watch items: (1) Irving's shoulder — camp availability; a PUP start hands September work to Gainwell/Tucker and fires RB eval tripwires. (2) Godwin slot confirmation — if camp reporting shows Egbuka living in the slot instead, the WR1/WR2 profiles both re-shape (Yahoo's May depth chart listed McMillan in the slot with Godwin at X — the alignment read here follows the newer Robinson-specific reporting; verify in camp). (3) WR3 battle (McMillan vs Tez Johnson vs Hurst). (4) Mayfield extension — his camp deadline passing without a deal is noise, not a tripwire; a trade demand or holdout would be. (5) Goal-line split Irving vs Tucker. (6) Mauch's post-surgery interior play — RBWR was 27th. (7) Win-total move ≥1.5 off 8.5. (8) Shepard re-signing (would restore ~53 targets of slot/Z depth).