Don't Look at My Team

Ted Hurst (WR, TB) — 2026 evaluation

Scoring note: evaluation request assumed full PPR pending league confirmation, but methodology/league-settings.md confirmed half-PPR (0.5/rec), 6pt pass TD, no premiums on 2026-07-08 — projections below are in confirmed league scoring. Full-PPR equivalents ≈ +0.5/reception: ~53 / ~104 / ~169.

Player facts: Ted Morris Hurst III, age 22 (born 2004-07-02 — Sleeper players export 2026-07-07; Wikipedia, fetched 2026-07-08). Combine: 6'3⅞" / 206, 4.42 forty, 36.5" vert, 11'3" broad (best broad jump among combine WRs), 32⅝" arms (Wikipedia + draft coverage, fetched 2026-07-08; Sleeper lists 6'3"/195). 2026 R3 #84 to TB — TB traded down 77→84 with GB, adding a 5th (buccaneers.com draft recap, April 2026, per data/team-profiles/TB.md). Highest draft pick in Georgia State history (georgiastatesports.com, 2026-04-25). Path: D2 Valdosta State 2022–23 → transfer to FBS Georgia State 2024–25 (Wikipedia). Rookie — zero NFL sample; eval is pedigree + role-path driven per prospect-pedigree.md, weighted up because the NFL sample is nil.

Verdict — TARGET (medium confidence)

Hurst is a free player with a live, *non-contingent* path: the team drafted him as the explicit successor to the X receiver role Mike Evans vacated (buccaneers.com draft recap, April 2026), and June minicamp reporting already has "Egbuka getting work at the Z spot and Ted Hurst working at the X with his downfield prowess" (Yahoo/buccaneers.com minicamp coverage, June 2026) — that is starter-alignment evidence, not camp filler. The claim behind it is real: day-2 capital, a 9.90 RAS (41st of 4,196 WRs tested since 1987 — SI, April 2026), back-to-back ~1,000-yard FBS seasons with an elite 37% dominator at age 20, and 107–160 vacated TB targets with no other WR capital added (TB.md vacated math, 2026-07-07). His WR3-battle competition is a 2024 R3 coming off a 4-game season (McMillan) and a 44-target day-3 sophomore (Tez Johnson). Why the market is wrong: mock drafters see "Georgia State rookie, 4th WR on the depth chart" and price him at literal zero — while pricing McMillan at 141.5 — but the team's own alignment reporting, HC endorsement ("I do see him helping us right away" — Bowles, minicamp, June 2026), and the pick itself say Hurst is the presumptive X in a top-2-PROE play-caller's 11-personnel-heavy offense. Two-plus wr.md §10 green flags (capital rookie + landing-spot target availability; camp alignment confirmation) at a zero price = TARGET (last-round dart / top-of-watchlist). This is not a starter projection — the median outcome is a rookie-ramp WR5/6 season; the price is what makes the asymmetry free.

Bull case

The role was cleared, named, and handed to him: Evans' 11-year X job is vacant, TB added no veteran WR, drafted Hurst at 84 as the stated "X/Evans replacement," and by June had him running the X with Egbuka moved to Z. A rookie X in a top-2-PROE caller's offense with Mayfield forcing downfield throws is a weekly-relevant fantasy role the moment he wins it — and both of his competitors carry weaker claims (McMillan: 4-game 2025, no X frame; Tez: 165-lb field-stretcher).
Pedigree stack that day-3 fliers don't have: R3 capital + 9.90 RAS (top 1% all-time) + 37% dominator at age 20 in his first FBS season + back-to-back ~1,000-yard years + best-in-class deep-ball tracking (60% contested conversion per draft scouting). The G5 discount is answered by the athletic testing exactly the way prospect-pedigree §4 requires.
Free TD asymmetry in a proven TD role: the TB X produced 11 rec TD in 14 games in 2024 (Evans — data/stats/2024) and McMillan spiked 8 TD as an R3 rookie in this same offense; Hurst's size/vert/high-point profile is built for that end-zone work, and Godwin's 18 missed games over two seasons plus Egbuka's target gravity mean single-coverage boundary snaps are coming. At mock-undrafted cost, the downside is a dropped last pick; the upside is this year's version of McMillan-2024 or Pierce-2024 (94–143 half-PPR) with a WR3-startable tail.

Bear case

Sun Belt production, D2 roots, NFL press corners: every scouting report flags the same thing — lean frame that loses to physical jams, underdeveloped release package, narrow route tree (Steelers Depot/draft profiles, Feb–Apr 2026). X receiver is the alignment where press is worst. Rookie small-school boundary receivers routinely spend year 1 as rotational decoys (Legette 2024: 98 half-PPR on 84 targets is the *good* version of that outcome).
A 9% college drop rate erodes exactly the trust a rookie X needs: 13 drops at Georgia State (PFF via Steelers Depot) is concern-band (wr.md §6 >8%), and his contested-catch-reliant winning style is the efficiency type the methodology explicitly refuses to pay for because it's fragile year-over-year. Mayfield's trust chain currently runs Egbuka → Godwin → Otton; a few early drops and Hurst is a clear-out runner while McMillan takes the routes.
Even the win case has a fragile weekly floor: deep-threat/boundary archetype at a ~10% target share means boom/bust weeks and a median season (~88 half-PPR, WR60-ish) that never cracks a 2-WR-plus-flex lineup. The three-way battle is genuinely unresolved — Ourlads still lists McMillan as the starting RWR and Hurst as Egbuka's backup (2026-06-09) — and if Godwin/Egbuka/Otton stay healthy, the leftover target pool splits three ways into fantasy irrelevance.

Projection & comps

Team inputs from data/team-profiles/TB.md (built 2026-07-07): ~64.5 plays/g, ~59% dropback rate → ~33.5 pass att/g ≈ 570 attempts / ~545 targets. Hierarchy claims above him: Egbuka ~24–26% TS, Godwin (slot) ~19–21% when healthy, Otton ~15%, RBs ~22% (Robinson's ATL 2025 RB target share 22.9% — TB.md). The X job's target share is what's left — and it expands sharply on any Godwin/Egbuka absence (Godwin has missed 18 games across 2024–25 — TB.md).

Scenario	Path	Usage	Line	Half-PPR
Floor (20th)	Loses the camp battle; rotational vertical X, ~40–50% routes	~32 tgt (~6% TS)	17-270-2	~45
Median (50th)	Wins the X by committee; rookie ramp, full-time by midseason	~58 tgt (~10.5% TS)	33-470-4	~88
Ceiling (80th)	Wins X outright in camp + normal TB WR injury luck opens targets	~85 tgt (~15.5% TS, ~30% AYS)	48-760-7	~145

TDs anchored to xTD from role: a 6'3⅞" X with the class's best deep-ball tracking gets end-zone targets when on the field (Evans' old role produced 11 rec TD in 14 games as recently as 2024 — data/stats/2024), but rookie TD equity is shared with Egbuka/Otton/Godwin. Median xTD ≈ 4; ceiling xTD ≈ 7.
The true league-winner tail — consolidating the Evans role at 100+ targets behind only Egbuka — sits beyond the 80th percentile; it is the reason to hold the ticket, not the projection.
Games-played risk: low — healthy 22-year-old, R3 roster lock, zero healthy-scratch risk given the draft capital and camp buzz. Role volatility is expressed in the floor, not games.
External projections: none in data/projections/ (directory absent as of 2026-07-08) — no sanity-check disagreement to report.

Comps (rookie boundary/vertical X seasons, all verified in local CSVs, half-PPR):

Jalen McMillan 2024 (TB R3 rookie, same offense): 58 tgt, 37-461-8, 112.6 in 13 g (data/stats/2024) — the direct franchise precedent: R3 rookie WR earning a real role + TD spike.
Keon Coleman 2024 (R2 raw boundary X): 57 tgt, 29-556-4, 94.1 (data/stats/2024) — the median shape: starter-ish snaps, rookie inefficiency.
Alec Pierce 2024 (vertical X, low TS / 28.7% AYS): 69 tgt, 37-824-7, 142.9 (data/stats/2024) — the ceiling archetype: field-stretching X paying off on efficiency + TDs, not volume.
Xavier Legette 2024 (raw small-school-ish R1 X): 84 tgt, 49-497-4, 98.2 (data/stats/2024) — high-target/low-efficiency variant; a warning that targets alone don't pay without polish.
Jayden Higgins 2025 (R2 rookie X): 68 tgt, 41-525-6, 109.0 (data/stats/2025) — between median and ceiling with no injury help.
Competition context: Tez Johnson's 2025 rookie WR3 season in this offense = 44 tgt, 28-322-5, 76.2 (data/stats/2025).

Usage profile — opportunity table

No NFL sample; filled with college production + projected 2026 role. All NFL-metric cells N/A.

Metric	Value	Verdict
Target share	N/A · college TS UNVERIFIED (no PFF export; single game log shows 11 tgt vs ODU — CBS via search); reception share 24.7% of team receptions 2025 (71/288 — cfbstats, fetched 2026-07-08)	Projected NFL 6–15% band depending on camp outcome
TPRR / RP	N/A — no route data at any level in `data/` or free sources	UNVERIFIED — first NFL charting data is a tripwire-grade update
Air-yards share	N/A · archetype projects high AYS relative to TS (Pierce-shaped)	Deep-threat profile: AYS will lead TS
WOPR	Projected median ~0.31 · ceiling ~0.44	WR5/6 median, WR3/4 ceiling — consistent with comps
RZ / end-zone targets	N/A · 6'3⅞" + 36.5" vert + best-in-class high-point = the TD access thesis; 15 TD on 127 catches at GSU	Contingent-good; Evans' old end-zone role is the prize
Depth mix / field zone	College: vertical-heavy, boundary-primary; 70.9% of college catches went for 1st down or TD (Last Word On Sports, 2026-06-24). MOF share UNVERIFIED	Boundary-only lean → floor discount per wr.md §3
Drop rate	~9% (13 drops at Georgia State, per PFF via Steelers Depot scouting report, Feb 2026)	Concern band (>8%) — the biggest skill red flag
xFP	N/A (no provider xFP for rookies)	Anchored to bottom-up build in §2

Pedigree screen (prospect-pedigree.md) — this is the evidence base:

Draft capital: R3 #84 — day-2 = "real runway; the year-2/3 breakout pool lives here." Not presumptive over incumbents, but TB spent its first skill-position pick of the class on him and publicly named the role.
College production: 2024 (first FBS year, age 20): 56-961-9 → dominator 37.1% (31.3% yds share + 42.9% TD share — cfbstats team totals, fetched 2026-07-08) = elite band (≥35%). 2025: 71-1,004-6 → dominator 30.1% (32.9% yds / 27.3% TD), 12th nationally in receiving yards, First-Team All-Sun Belt (georgiastatesports.com). Yards per team pass attempt 2025: 2.11 (1,004/475 att — cfbstats) = mid band. Breakout age: 20 (first FBS season; D2 years 2022–23 at Valdosta State — 22-431-6, 38-596-4 — not dominator-computable, UNVERIFIED) = good band, not elite.
Athletic testing: RAS 9.90 — 41st of 4,196 WRs since 1987 (SI grading article + buccaneers.com, April 2026); 4.42 at 6'3⅞"/206 with elite explosion numbers. Per pedigree §4, G5 production requires athletic confirmation (RAS ≥8) — he clears it by two full points. The D2→Sun Belt dominance + elite traits combo is the "prospect, not workout warrior" side of the §3 line.
Age curve: 22.0 now, NFL year 1; young for a four-year college player (started at 18). The WR breakout window is years 2–3 — a 2026 bet is one year early by base rates, which is precisely why he's free.

Context (data/team-profiles/TB.md, built 2026-07-07)

Play-caller: Zac Robinson (new OC, McVay tree) — top-2 PROE at ATL 2025 (+3.85), motion ~53%, PA ~20.6%; in TB expect an 11-personnel rebound above ATL's 37.6%, "which keeps three WRs on the field and gives the WR3 role (McMillan/Tez Johnson/Hurst) actual fantasy oxygen" (TB.md). Quick-rhythm timing offense is not a classic jump-ball X scheme — but the caller's pass tilt and Mayfield's aggressiveness keep the vertical X fed.
QB: Baker Mayfield, contract-year, zero benching risk, never missed a TB start. Backup Browning compresses the offense — Hurst's downfield usage is hurt most in that contingency (TB.md contingency line).
O-line: 5/5 starters return; Wirfs/Goedeke edge protection is the strength — deep routes have time when they're upright (TB.md).
Vacated targets: 107 confirmed (160 incl. unsigned Shepard) of 541; Evans' 62 targets in 8 games were the X's. Arrivals claiming them: Gainwell (RB), Hurst (R3.84), Sharp (R6 TE) — no veteran WR was added. The path is drafted-rookie-shaped by design.
Competition for the X/WR3: contested three-way (TB.md pecking order #6). McMillan — 2024 R3, 37-461-8 rookie year but only 4 games in 2025 (12-178-0 — data/stats/2025); listed starting RWR on Ourlads (updated 2026-06-09). Tez Johnson — 44 tgt/5 TD in 2025, field-stretcher body type, day-3 profile. Hurst holds the freshest capital and the only prototype-X frame of the three. Depth charts conflict: Ourlads/Sleeper list Hurst as backup LWR behind Egbuka (2026-06-09 / 2026-07-07), while June minicamp beat reporting puts Hurst at X with Egbuka shifted to Z — the newer, role-specific reporting is the better signal per wr.md §4 (camp alignment reports are the earliest hard evidence), but it is June practice evidence, not a settled depth chart. That gap is the whole confidence rating.
Buzz quality: Bowles at minicamp: "he's a very bright guy… I do see him helping us right away" (buccaneers.com, June 2026). Ronde Barber: "The smoke is real. There is fire underneath that smoke" (via Last Word On Sports, 2026-06-24). Egbuka praised his "elite catch radius" (buccaneers.com minicamp coverage, June 2026). Camp hype is level-5 evidence — noted, not weighted.
Game environment: 8.5 win total, neutral script lean; ~33.5 att/g (TB.md).

Archetype (wr.md §8): deep threat / developmental boundary X — TD-dependent, weekly-volatile, "only at cheap ADP." His ADP is zero, which is the one price at which this archetype is always buyable.

Tripwires (void this eval and re-run)

Training-camp/preseason first-team alignment (camp opens 2026-07-30 — buccaneers.com): Hurst running X with the 1s in pads/preseason = upgrade (confidence → high, add before waivers react); McMillan or Tez taking the first-team X = downgrade toward HOLD/AVOID-at-any-cost-above-zero.
Any Godwin or Egbuka injury news — immediate re-run; Hurst's target ceiling re-prices overnight.
Preseason drop/press evidence — visible drops or a shrinking snap rotation in August games = the bear case confirming early; re-run.
ADP rises into drafted range (inside ~pick 160 / WR60 on FFC or Sleeper) — the free-asymmetry thesis dies at a real price; re-grade toward HOLD.
TB adds a veteran WR (incl. a Shepard re-signing, ~53 targets of depth) — trims the rookie's runway; re-run.

Sources

data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json — age 22, DOB 2004-07-02, Georgia State, years_exp 0, TB, depth LWR #4, 75"/195, search_rank 196, rookie_year 2026
data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv — Hurst absent from FFC PPR mocks (sleeper-searchrank row); context ADPs: Egbuka 46.6, Godwin 78.3, McMillan 141.5, Irving 45.4, Gainwell 98.5 (ffc-ppr, 2026-07-07)
data/team-profiles/TB.md (built 2026-07-07) — Robinson hire + ATL tendencies (PROE +3.85, RB tgt 22.9%, motion 53%), vacated-target math (107–160 of 541), R3.84 pick + trade-down detail, WR pecking order and three-way WR3 battle, volume inputs (~64.5 plays/g, ~33.5 att/g), win total 8.5, Godwin 18 games missed 2024–25, OL 5/5 returning
data/stats/2025/receiving.csv, data/stats/2024/receiving.csv (nflverse, pulled 2026-07-07) — comps and competition lines: McMillan 2024 (58 tgt, 37-461-8, 112.6 half-PPR) and 2025 (4 g, 15 tgt); Tez Johnson 2025 (44 tgt, 28-322-5, 76.2); Coleman 2024 (94.1); Pierce 2024 (142.9); Legette 2024 (98.2); Higgins 2025 (109.0); Evans 2024 (110 tgt, 74-1004-11) and 2025 (62 tgt/8 g); Godwin 2025 (51 tgt/9 g); Egbuka 2025 (127 tgt, TS 23.5%, AYS 36.2%)
cfbstats.com Georgia State team pages (fetched 2026-07-08) — 2025: Hurst 71-1,004-6 of team 288-3,049-22 (475 att); 2024: 56-961-9 of team 271-3,069-21 → dominator 30.1% / 37.1%
Wikipedia "Ted Hurst" (fetched 2026-07-08) — DOB, Savannah/Sol C. Johnson HS, Valdosta State 2022–23 (22-431-6, 38-596-4), transfer, combine 6'3⅞"/206, 4.42/36.5"/11'3"
buccaneers.com (April–June 2026, via search 2026-07-08) — draft announcement (R3.84, X/Evans replacement), rookie deal signed, minicamp coverage (Bowles "helping us right away"; Egbuka "elite catch radius"; Egbuka-at-Z / Hurst-at-X alignment reporting), camp opens 7/30
SI.com Bucs grading article (April 2026, fetched 2026-07-08) — B+ grade, RAS 9.90 (41/4,196 since 1987), true-X projection
georgiastatesports.com (2026-04-25 + season stats pages) — highest pick in program history; 2025 honors (First-Team All-Sun Belt, 12th nationally in rec yds)
Steelers Depot 2026 draft scouting report (Feb 2026) + aggregated draft profiles (via search 2026-07-08) — press/release weaknesses, narrow tree, 13 drops / 9% drop rate per PFF, 60% contested-catch conversion, best-in-class deep tracking
Last Word On Sports (2026-06-24) — OTA/minicamp buzz roundup; Ronde Barber quote; 70.9% of college catches for 1st down or TD
Ourlads TB depth chart (updated 2026-06-09, fetched 2026-07-08) — Hurst LWR2 behind Egbuka; McMillan RWR1; Godwin SWR1 — the conflicting-signal depth chart
UNVERIFIED: college target share / TPRR / YPRR / aDOT (no PFF college export in data/raw/); D2 dominator seasons at Valdosta State; MOF-vs-boundary college mix; 2024 GSU team pass attempts (Y/TPA computed for 2025 only)