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LVTyler Allgeier (RB, ARI) — 2026
Verdict — HOLD (medium confidence) at an undrafted price (outside 15-round mock range, Sleeper rank tail, 2026-07-07)
Allgeier is a competent, durable, receiving-void power back whose new team handed him top-of-backup-market money (2yr/$12.25M, agreed 2026-03-09 — AP/ESPN) and then spent the No. 3 overall pick on Jeremiyah Love five weeks later. His standalone 2026 role is his old Atlanta role transplanted to the NFL's lowest win total (4.5): ~120 low-value carries, near-zero targets, contested goal-line work — roughly 5–6 PPR/g. His contingent value is real — he is the clearest next-man-up in the room (spring lead-back reps with the 1s, "super stout" pass pro, and the alternatives are a 31-year-old off season-ending foot surgery and a trade candidate) — but the handcuff three-factor test (rb.md §7) fails on starter fragility (a 21-year-old rookie) and offense quality (4.5 wins). Profile and price agree: not draftable in a 12-team/6-bench league, but the first name on the waiver speed-dial if Love misses time. In 14-team+ or deep-bench formats, a final-round dart is defensible; here, no lean.
Deep-pool pedigree screen (run hard, per instruction): no screen hits. Day-3 capital (2022 R5.151) whose predictive window has expired — year 5, believe the usage record (prospect-pedigree.md §1); no year-2/3 breakout window remaining; not post-hype day-2; college receiving 28 career receptions at BYU (below the ≥40 three-down threshold, prospect-pedigree.md §2); middling testing (4.60 forty / 46th pct, burst 35th pct — PlayerProfiler, retrieved 2026-07-07). The path to a role exists, but it runs exclusively through a Love injury — said plainly, that is a contingency stash, not a sleeper.
Bull case
- Clearest contingent claim in an expensive room: $12.25M/2yr signed to be the interim RB1 (2026-03-09), spring lead-back reps with the starters (SI/onsi OTAs, June 2026), and "super stout" pass protection — if Love misses time, Allgeier steps into a ~55–65% opportunity role with goal-line work and becomes an every-week fantasy RB2/3 overnight, and the ambiguity behind him (Conner 31/off foot surgery, Benson half out the door) keeps the inheritance mostly whole.
- Live goal-line/short-yardage equity even standalone: 8 rush TDs on 143 carries in 2025 handling "a sizable chunk" of ATL's goal-line work (atlantafalcons.com); ARI beat/national coverage (SI June 2026) explicitly floats him retaining goal-line duty; 225 lbs behind an interior-strength OL — a 5–6 TD standalone season is inside the range and would beat this price by itself.
- Durability + scheme fit at a free price: 67 of 68 games since 2022, 737 career touches (light odometer for 26), zone-scheme fit in LaFleur's wide-zone with a +0.61 RYOE/att season (2024) on his resume — the profile survives a full season of dart-throw stashing without injury drama.
Bear case (the hater's version)
- No receiving role, ever, anywhere: 0.94 targets/g and a 3.1% target share in 2025, 13–16 targets *per season* across four NFL years, 28 college receptions — in full PPR his weekly floor is functionally zero (rb.md §3: a back with <2 targets/g "has a floor of zero"), and LaFleur's scheme concentrates RB routes on the lead back, who is a No. 3 overall pick, not him.
- The strongest role gate in football just landed on his depth chart: R1.3 capital + record rookie-RB guarantees mean ARI force-feeds Love through any inefficiency (rb.md §9/§11); Allgeier's standalone median is ~120 low-value carries in the NFL's most negative script (4.5-win total), where even the goal-line trips he'd vulture are scarce — team-wide ARI managed 9 rush TDs all of 2025.
- The back's own metrics are drifting the wrong way: RYOE/att fell from +0.61 to −0.18, YAC/att 2.9 (below the 3.0 concern line), MTF/touch a modest 0.166, PFF rush grade 72.2 (38th of 55) — a power back showing softening burst signals entering his age-26/27 seasons is exactly the decline sequence (rb.md §11) that makes even the contingency outcome underwhelm.
Projection & comps
Bottom-up from team profile volume (data/team-profiles/ARI.md, 2026-07-07: ~63 plays/g, ~26 designed rushes/g of which ~22–24 to RBs → ~390 RB carries; ~124 RB targets in 2025, Love-dominated in 2026). Consistent with the Jeremiyah Love eval (median Love ≈58% RB carry share).
| Scenario | Games | Carries | Rush yds | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | TD | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Floor (20th) | 17 | ~85 (22% RB share; Love consolidates, Conner healthy) | ~330 (3.9) | 12 | 9 | ~60 | 2 | ~60 |
| Median (50th) | 17 | ~120 (30% RB share) | ~490 (4.1) | 18 | 15 | ~105 | 4 (3.5 rush + 0.5 rec) | ~95 |
| Ceiling (80th) | 17 | ~175 (Love misses ~4 games and/or 55:35 committee holds) | ~730 (4.2) | 26 | 21 | ~150 | 7 | ~160 |
- TD anchor (xTD, derived): ARI scored 9 rush TDs on 366 carries in 2025 (data/stats/2025/rushing.csv); the run-lean rebuild plausibly lifts team rush TDs to ~11–13 (per the Love eval's shared anchor). Love holds first claim inside the 5 with Allgeier the named vulture ("Allgeier may retain goal-line duty" — SI/onsi, June 2026; ARI.md flags goal line CONTESTED) → median ~3–4 rush TDs. His 2025 total of 8 is *not* carried forward — it was a 5.6% TD/carry rate on a far better offense (ATL), classic regression fodder (scoring-framework §4).
- Not the 2025 encore: his 123.0 PPR in 2025 (data/stats/2025) was TD-driven; the same usage with median TD luck is his 2024 (106.2 PPR) — and ARI's offense is materially worse than ATL's.
- Median PPG ~5.6 — outside the RB4 startable range. Ceiling PPG ~9.4 only if the committee stays wide; the true league-winning branch (Love injured months, Allgeier at 55%+ opportunity share) sits beyond the 80th percentile and is what the roster spot would actually be for.
- Games risk: low — 67 of a possible 68 games played 2022–25 (PFR via search, 2026-07-07; 2024–25 verified 17g each in data/stats); 737 career pro touches at age 26 (odometer well under the 1,800 cliff line, though he turns 27 in April 2027 and his game is between-the-tackles burst, the component that ages first).
Comp seasons (verified from cached data, pulled 2026-07-07):
- Tyler Allgeier 2024 (ATL RB2) — 137-644-3, 13 tgt, 106.2 PPR. The median template with neutral TD luck.
- Nick Chubb 2025 (HOU) — 122-506-3, 20 tgt, 88.3 PPR. Veteran committee back on a run-first team, TDs didn't come: the floor-to-median band.
- Kimani Vidal 2025 (LAC) — 155-643-3, 22 tgt, 117.9 PPR. RB2 who inherited real work mid-season: the median-to-ceiling band.
- Jordan Mason 2024 (SF) — 153-789-3, 14 tgt, 115.0 PPR. Backup behind a star who got a starter's stretch: the ceiling shape.
- Devin Singletary 2025 (NYG) — 119-437-5, 19 tgt, 108.8 PPR. Grinder on a bad team, TD-dependent weeks.
No external projections available (data/projections/ absent).
Usage profile (rb.md §2–3 table)
2025 = ATL, behind Bijan Robinson. All cached-data figures pulled 2026-07-07 (nflverse, 2025 REG).
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | Band | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Snap share | 24.9% avg | 30.2% avg (min 9%, max 40%) | Concern (<40%) | Never sniffed a three-down role behind Bijan; ceiling gate closed (snap_counts.csv) |
| Opportunity share | 27.8% | 28.5% (159 of 558 backfield opps) | Concern (<45%) | Stable two-year backup share (rushing/receiving.csv) |
| Weighted opps /g | 10.0 | 10.8 | Concern (<13) | (143 + 2.5×16)/17 |
| High-value touches /g | — | ~1.5–2.5 (est.) | Concern (<2.5) | Inside-10 carry counts UNVERIFIED in cached tables; "sizable chunk of the goal-line work" + 8 rush TDs (atlantafalcons.com, 2025 season) is the one high-value element |
| Inside-5 team share | UNVERIFIED | UNVERIFIED (qualitatively meaningful — 8 rush TDs) | Mixed | In ARI it's a three-way contest: Love first claim, Allgeier/Conner vulture (ARI.md; SI June 2026) |
| Third-down snap share | ~19% (proxy) | ~24% (proxy) | Concern (<25%) | On-field share of ATL pass plays, computed from participation.csv — he left the field on passing downs |
| Routes /g · route participation | UNVERIFIED · ~19% proxy | UNVERIFIED · ~24% proxy | Concern | Pass-play participation proxy stands in for RP; provider route data unavailable |
| Targets /g · TPRR | 0.76 · UNVERIFIED | 0.94 · UNVERIFIED | Concern (<1.5) | 3.1% target share (receiving.csv); 28 career college receptions — the receiving void is career-long and real |
| xFP /g | UNVERIFIED | UNVERIFIED (actual 7.2 PPR/g) | — | No provider xFP; actual was TD-inflated vs usage |
Efficiency (rb.md §5) — tiebreaker only, and it now leans against him:
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | Band | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RYOE /att (NGS) | +0.61 | −0.18 | Good → below-zero | data/stats/{2024,2025}/ngs_rushing.csv |
| YPC | 4.70 | 3.59 | — | rushing.csv (YPC is mostly line/mix noise, rb.md §5) |
| YAC /att | UNVERIFIED | 2.9 | Concern boundary (<3.0) | PFF via web search, retrieved 2026-07-07 |
| MTF /touch | UNVERIFIED | 0.166 (26 MTF / 157 touches) | Good (low end) | PFF via web search, retrieved 2026-07-07 |
| 8+ box rate | 19.0% | 24.5% | drag context | ngs_rushing.csv |
| Rush success rate | UNVERIFIED | UNVERIFIED | — | not in cached tables |
One-year RYOE swing (+0.61 → −0.18) against a heavier box diet is not yet a believed decline (two-season rule, scoring-framework §3), but it's the metric to watch at 26.
Archetype (rb.md §10): early-down grinder / short-yardage power back. Committee 2×2 (rb.md §7): low standalone, moderate-high contingent → handcuff lottery ticket. Three-factor handcuff test: fragile starter? No (age-21 rookie). Good offense? No (4.5-win total, NFL-lowest tie — DraftKings via FOX Sports 2026-05-18). Clean succession? Partial (he is the clear lead beneficiary, but Conner would mix on thirds and short yardage). ~1 of 3 → contingency is real but discounted.
Context (data/team-profiles/ARI.md, 2026-07-07)
- Team assignment verified: signed ARI 2yr/$12.25M, agreed 2026-03-09 (AP via Washington Post; ESPN 2026-03-09); on ARI roster per Sleeper (2026-07-07: team ARI, depth_chart_order 2) and azcardinals.com roster reset (2026-07-06).
- The signing predates the Love pick: ARI signed Allgeier in March "to handle RB1 duties while Conner recovered," then drafted Love at 1.03 in April, moving him to "a complementary role" (azcardinals.com roster reset, 2026-07-06). The contract (~$6.1M APY) sits between rb.md §9's insurance tier and featured-role tier — a genuine top-of-market RB2 claim, and *capital added after it* is the trump card (rb.md §11: new day-1 capital = role loss even if he "wins camp").
- Backfield: Love (R1.3, presumptive workhorse; LaFleur history = lead back keeps the routes, 21.9% RB target share at his Jets calling stops), Allgeier (RB2, ran with the top offense during OTAs while Love integrated — SI/onsi June 2026; azcardinals Birdwatch June 2026), Conner (31, restructured 1yr/$3M insurance deal, Week 3 2025 season-ending foot surgery, expected 100% for camp — NFL.com 2025-09; PFN 2026 offseason), Benson (named trade candidate, "uphill battle" for touches — Last Word on Sports 2026-05-31; azcardinals.com 2026-07-06), Knight (ST/depth).
- Scheme: LaFleur wide/outside-zone — Allgeier "fits zone" (ARI.md); his best NFL efficiency (2024, +0.61 RYOE) came in ATL's zone-heavy system. Pass pro is his calling card ("super stout" — Falcons OC Zac Robinson, via atlantafalcons.com; exact PFF pass-block grade UNVERIFIED), which matters for the *contingent* scenario: he wouldn't leave the field on third down the way most backups do.
- Game script (explicit): win total 4.5 = the league's most negative script prior. Answer to the defining question — *does he leave the field when trailing?* — yes: ~24% pass-play participation in 2025, and in ARI the trailing-down work belongs to Love by scheme and capital. A grinder on a ≤6.5-win team is a red-flag profile (rb.md §12); at a free ADP it caps value rather than costing anything. His projection barely benefits from ARI's rush-lean intent because negative script eats the second-half carry volume that feeds RB2s.
- OL: run-block 31st in 2025, 2 returning starters, rookie R2 at RG; interior (Seumalo/Froholdt) is the strength — mildly helpful for a between-the-tackles back; projected ~15th for 2026 (Heavy/Yahoo, 2026-06).
Tripwires (re-run on any)
- Jeremiyah Love misses practice/game time with any multi-week injury (or the kick-return experiment bites) → Allgeier flips to TARGET/priority-add instantly, everywhere.
- Conner setback/PUP/release or a Benson trade → succession consolidates to Allgeier alone; contingent value and verdict tier both rise.
- August camp/preseason reports put Allgeier on the goal-line or two-minute package with the 1s → standalone TD/target equity rises; re-run toward deep-league TARGET.
- ADP climbs inside ~pick 140 (round 12, 12-team) on handcuff hype → the market would be paying for contingency on the league's worst offense behind a healthy No. 3 pick → flips to FADE.
- Preseason shows Love in a true bell-cow deployment (goal line + two-minute + 65%+ snaps with starters) → floor scenario locks; drop Allgeier from watch lists.
Board note: evaluations/boards/2026/board.md exists — board is now stale (/draft-board update).
Sources
data/stats/2025/+data/stats/2024/rushing.csv, receiving.csv, snap_counts.csv, ngs_rushing.csv, weekly.csv, participation.csv — nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07 (REG only). Carries/targets/shares, snap %, RYOE, box rates, pass-play participation proxy, comp seasons.data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json— team ARI, age 26 (DOB 2000-04-15), years_exp 4, BYU, depth_chart_order 2 (as-of 2026-07-07).data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv— Allgeier: no FFC ADP, sleeper-searchrank tail (undrafted basis); Jeremiyah Love 22.2 FFC-PPR (2026-07-07).data/team-profiles/ARI.md(built 2026-07-07) — coaching/scheme/OL/win total/committee read;evaluations/players/2026/jeremiyah-love.md(2026-07-07) — shared backfield split and xTD anchors.- AP via Washington Post / ESPN (2026-03-09): 2yr/$12.25M contract.
- azcardinals.com "Cardinals Roster Reset 2026: Running Back" (2026-07-06): Love top guy; Allgeier complementary; Conner reduced/recovering; Benson uphill battle.
- SI/onsi Cardinals OTA coverage (June 2026): Allgeier main back with top offense in spring; Love RB1 "sooner rather than later"; goal-line duty possibly Allgeier's.
- Last Word on Sports (2026-05-07, 2026-05-31): Benson trade candidacy.
- NFL.com (2025-09) / Pro Football Network (2026 offseason): Conner Week 3 2025 season-ending foot/ankle surgery; expected 100% for 2026.
- PFF via web search (retrieved 2026-07-07): 2025 YAC/att 2.9, 26 MTF, rush grade 72.2 (38/55). PlayerProfiler (retrieved 2026-07-07): R5.8 2022 capital, 28 BYU career receptions, testing percentiles.
- PFR / atlantafalcons.com via web search (retrieved 2026-07-07): 2022 (210-1,035-3, 16 rec) and 2023 (186-683-4, 18 rec) seasons; career games played; "quiet superstar" goal-line usage piece; Zac Robinson pass-pro quote.
- FOX Sports (2026-05-18): ARI win total 4.5 (DraftKings), via ARI.md.
- UNVERIFIED and marked as such: inside-10/inside-5 carry counts, exact route counts/TPRR, rush success rate, PFF pass-block grade, provider xFP.