Don't Look at My Team

Michael Wilson (WR, ARI) — 2026 evaluation

Verdict — FADE (medium confidence) at ADP 80.6 (FFC PPR, 2026-07-07; WR38)

Wilson's 1,006-yard "breakout" was an injury-driven volume artifact stacked on the NFL's most trailing-inflated pass offense: with Marvin Harrison Jr. on the field he averaged 4.8 targets/g, 0.130 TPRR, and 7.6 PPR/g; in 5 MHJ-out games he averaged 13.6 targets/g, 0.302 TPRR, and 26.0 PPR/g (data/stats/2025, computed 2026-07-07). His full-lineup earning rate is confirmed by 2024 (0.133 TPRR with a healthy MHJ) — two seasons of the same signal. Why the market is wrong: WR38 already discounts the MHJ split, but it still prices 2025's volume environment — ARI threw at a 69.9% pass rate (791 pass plays; Brissett 40+ att/g down the stretch), and the 2026 team projection is ~33 att/g (~560 attempts) under run-first Mike LaFleur with the No. 3 overall pick at RB (data/team-profiles/ARI.md, 2026-07-07). A ~29% smaller target pool at a ~0.13–0.16 full-lineup TPRR is a 70–90 target season, and per the methodology's fastest read, "high RP + low TPRR = capped (sell)." Fine player, wrong price — only draftable a round-plus past ADP (pick ~95+), or the moment MHJ's health breaks again.

Bull case

Proven contingent-alpha: 0.302 TPRR / 31.7% TS / 0.860 WOPR / 26.0 PPR/g in 5 MHJ-out games — and MHJ has now had heel (x2), concussion, and appendix issues in one season, with health still "an ongoing process" in June 2026. If MHJ misses time again, Wilson is a weekly WR1 for that stretch at a 7th-round price.
Play-caller casts him in the scheme's richest WR role: LaFleur explicitly comps Wilson's Z to the "Puka Nacua role, closer to the core" (June 2026) — in the McVay/LaFleur offense that role earns targets at the highest rate on the team, and Wilson's aDOT-11.9 intermediate profile with +YACOE two straight years fits it.
QB continuity + trust: Brissett already leaned on him (88 targets over the 2025 final 8 weeks), drops are elite (~3.2%), he's 26 entering year 4 with R3 capital — nothing about the player himself is declining.

Bear case

Two seasons of full-lineup TPRR ≈ 0.13 — below the 0.18 concern line both years. With McBride (27.4% TS), a healthy MHJ, Love (LaFleur's 21.9% RB target-share history), and Bourne all present, Wilson is the 3rd-to-4th read, and his 2025 with-MHJ reality was 7.6 PPR/g — a waiver-wire line.
The target pool shrinks ~25–30%: 791 team pass plays / 69.9% pass rate in 2025 → ~560 attempts projected in 2026 (run-first play-caller, No. 3-pick RB, deliberate pace). Even generous TPRR growth can't offset that much lost volume.
Weak underlying efficiency: YPRR 1.50 in the breakout year (concern line) and 1.02 in 2024; 1D/RR 0.076; NGS separation 2.4 yd. The market is paying for counting stats a mediocre-efficiency profile only produced when handed alpha volume by injury — scoring-framework §3 explicitly says don't believe injury-driven volume.

Projection & comps

Bottom-up (team inputs from data/team-profiles/ARI.md, 2026-07-07: ~63 plays/g, ~59% dropback rate, ~37 dropbacks/g):

Scenario	Games	Routes (RP ~85%)	TPRR	Targets	Rec (62%)	Yards (~7.8 Y/T)	TD (xTD-anchored)	PPR
Floor (p20)	15	~466	0.135 (MHJ plays 17)	~63	39	~480	3	~105
Median (p50)	16	~503	0.171 blended (MHJ misses ~2)	~86	53	~670	4.5	~147
Ceiling (p80)	17	~535	~0.20 blended (MHJ misses ~5, "Nacua role" real)	~105	65	~820	6	~185

TD anchor: 2025 xFP-vs-actual shows no TD windfall to fade (crude internal xFP ≈ 220 on 126 targets at aDOT ~11.9 vs 220.6 actual PPR — internal estimate; provider xFP UNVERIFIED, no export in data/raw/). The fade is volume, not TD regression.
Games risk: medium — 13 games (2023, shoulder), 16 (2024), 17 (2025); improving trend but a physical, contested-catch style.
Comp seasons (historical, evaluator knowledge — sanity comps, not load-bearing): Josh Palmer 2022 LAC (72-769-3 on injury-driven volume → reverted 2023) — the pattern comp; Jauan Jennings 2024 SF (77-975-6) — the ceiling analog; Jakobi Meyers 2023 LV (71-807-8) — high-median analog; Gabe Davis 2022 BUF (48-836-7) — boundary-Z2 shape; Michael Wilson 2024 (47-548-4, 124.5 PPR — data/stats/2024) — his own floor analog.
External projections: none on hand (data/projections/ does not exist) — no cross-check available.

Usage profile (wr.md §2 table)

All 2025 values from data/stats/2025 (nflverse, pulled 2026-07-07) unless noted. Routes are a participation.csv on-field-per-dropback proxy (671 routes on 789 team pass plays).

Metric	2025 full	2025 w/ MHJ (12 g)	2025 w/o MHJ (5 g)	2024	Verdict
Target share	20.4%	14.0%	31.7%	13.6%	Middling full; Concern in full lineup
TPRR	0.188	0.130	0.302	0.133	Concern — full-lineup rate <0.18 two straight years
Route participation	85.0%	~82% avg	~86% avg	86.9%	Good (80–90 band)
Air-yards share	33.8%	21.4%	54.9%	22.1%	Good full; Concern in full lineup
WOPR	0.543	0.360	0.860	~0.36 (computed from TS/AYS)	Good full; Concern in full lineup
RZ target share	UNVERIFIED	—	—	UNVERIFIED	No charting export; free sources lacked it (searched 2026-07-07)
End-zone targets	UNVERIFIED	—	—	UNVERIFIED	Same; note 5 of 7 TDs came weeks 14–18 (ngs_receiving)
xFP	~220 internal est. (actual 220.6, 13.0/g)	~7.6 PPR/g actual	~26.0 PPR/g actual	124.5 PPR	Production matched usage — no hidden luck either way

The 2×2 read: with MHJ active, Wilson is high-RP / low-TPRR — the methodology's capped/sell quadrant. The 0.302 MHJ-out TPRR proves talent to absorb an alpha role, but that role only exists when the WR1 is hurt.

Target quality, alignment, coverage

aDOT 11.9 (1,502 air yds / 126 tgt; NGS avg intended air yards 11.4) — the intermediate sweet spot; healthy per-target value.
YAC: 3.5/rec, +0.57 YAC over expected (2025 NGS); +0.42 in 2024 — two positive years, mildly sticky plus.
Separation: NGS avg 2.44 yd (2025), 2.58 (2024) — modest separator; wins with size/body positioning (6'2", 213 — Sleeper 2026-07-07).
Drops: 4 on 126 targets ≈ 3.2% — elite band (RotoWire/FantasyData via web search, 2026-07-07).
Depth mix / MOF-vs-boundary / man-zone splits: UNVERIFIED — no provider exports in data/raw/, free sources lacked them (2026-07-07).
Alignment/role 2026: LaFleur says Wilson plays the Z — "the Puka Nacua role, closer to the core," comfortable in the C/B/D areas (LaFleur via Arizona Sports/CBS Cardinals deep-dive, June 2026). Bourne mans the slot; MHJ is the isolated X (team profile, 2026-07-07). Positional-change protocol applies: Petzing-era usage is void; re-projected from the new role above.

Context (data/team-profiles/ARI.md, 2026-07-07)

Regime: Gannon out; LaFleur (Shanahan tree) HC and play-caller — run-first intent, outside zone, heavy RB/TE target history (21.9% RB target share at NYJ; Conklin 19.7% target rate). Stability: low.
Volume cliff: 2025 = 66.6 plays/g, 69.9% pass rate (pbp_summary — worst-script inflated, 3-14 team). 2026 projection = ~63 plays/g, ~59% dropbacks, ~33 att/g — even chronic negative script doesn't rebuild 2025's pool with a No. 3-pick RB on the roster.
QB: Brissett named starter — continuity with the QB who threw Wilson 88 targets over the final 8 games of 2025, but he's a $1.5M-guaranteed vet in a contract hold-in, with Minshew and R3 rookie Beck behind him. Benching risk live late-season; every step down the QB chain drops Wilson a half-tier (team profile contingency line).
Target hierarchy: McBride (169 tgt, 27.4% TS in 2025) is the unquestioned No. 1; MHJ (R1.4 capital, healthy per June OTAs — "nothing that prevents me from doing anything," though health is "an ongoing process") reclaims the X; Wilson is 3rd claim and contested with rookie RB Love for it; Bourne ($11.47M, LaFleur familiarity) takes the slot. 116 vacated targets were re-claimed by heavy capital — no feeding-opportunity green flag.
O-line: 2 returning starters, concern-band; journeyman RT → quick-game compression mildly favors Wilson's intermediate tree over MHJ's deep X work.
Contract: extension talks "going great," Wilson aiming for a deal by Week 1 (ESPN/PFR, late June 2026) — team commitment signal, fantasy-neutral per methodology (ignore contract-year narratives).

Tripwires (void this eval and re-run)

MHJ misses camp/preseason time or re-injures (heel recurrence) — the contingent-alpha path activates; verdict likely flips to TARGET.
Brissett standoff breaks bad — Minshew or Beck named Week 1 starter → Wilson drops a half-tier; FADE hardens toward AVOID at this price.
Camp/preseason reports show Nacua-like featuring — Wilson dominating first-team targets over MHJ in August scrimmage reports → median TPRR assumption is too low; re-run.
ADP falls past ~95 (a full round-plus discount) — the FADE price condition is met; he becomes a fine pick.
Bourne cut/traded or McBride/MHJ moved — hierarchy math changes; re-run.

Sources

data/stats/2025/ + data/stats/2024/ — receiving.csv, weekly.csv, ngs_receiving.csv, snap_counts.csv, participation.csv, pbp_summary.csv (nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07). Routes/RP/TPRR are participation-proxy computations (on-field pass plays), 2026-07-07.
data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv — Wilson 80.6 overall, WR38 (ffc-ppr, 2026-07-07). Cross-check: FantasyPros ADP ~68 / WR33 (via web, 2026-07-07).
data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json — age 26 (DOB 2000-02-23), Stanford, 6'2"/213, years_exp 3.
data/team-profiles/ARI.md (built 2026-07-07) — LaFleur/Hackett, Brissett, volume projections, hierarchy, vacated-target math, OL, win total 4.5.
PlayerProfiler player page (fetched 2026-07-07) — draft capital 2023 R3 (pick 94), 13.0 FPPG.
Web (2026-07-07): CBS Sports Cardinals fantasy deep-dive — MHJ-split PPR figures (7.6 / 25.9 PPR/g, corroborates internal calc), LaFleur "Puka Nacua role" quote, 40+ att/g caution; Arizona Sports / azcardinals.com / AOL — MHJ health "ongoing process" + X/Z role clarity (June 2026); ESPN / ProFootballRumors / Revenge of the Birds — extension talks "going great" (late June 2026); RotoWire/FantasyData — 4 drops, aDOT ~12.2.
UNVERIFIED (no source available): RZ target share, end-zone targets, depth-of-target mix, MOF-vs-boundary mix, man/zone splits, provider xFP.