Don't Look at My Team

Jeremiyah Love (RB, ARI) — 2026

Verdict — TARGET (medium confidence) at ADP 22.2 (FFC PPR, 2026-07-07)

Love is the No. 3 overall pick (highest-drafted RB since Barkley in 2018) with a record $50.5M guaranteed (FantasyLife/DLF, July 2026), elite athletic testing, and a genuine three-down college profile, landing with a Shanahan-tree play-caller (Mike LaFleur) whose calling stops produced a 21.9% RB target share. The market prices him RB12 at the 2/3 turn largely because of the committee bodies (Allgeier, Conner, Benson) and the NFL's lowest win total (4.5). Why the market is wrong: the committee threatens the *lowest-value* touches (early-down carries, maybe goal line) while the *highest-value* component — the receiving role — is essentially uncontested (Allgeier has never topped 16 targets in a season; Conner is 31, on a $3M insurance deal, coming off a 3-game injury year), and top-5 capital historically resolves the carry ambiguity by mid-season regardless. The verified 2025 analog — Ashton Jeanty, pick 6 on an equally bad Raiders team: 72.1% carry share, 73 targets, 245.1 PPR, RB11 (data/stats/2025, pulled 2026-07-07) — returned roughly this price's value at nearly twice the draft cost. Floor is PPR-protected and script-proof; ceiling is a top-6 RB season.

Bull case

Capital + contract are the strongest opportunity gate that exists: pick 3 and record guarantees mean ARI force-feeds him through any rookie inefficiency; Jeanty (72.1% rookie carry share on a bad 2025 team, verified) is the fresh precedent, and LaFleur has publicly framed him as a three-phase workhorse (June 2026).
The receiving role is both uncontested and scheme-guaranteed: LaFleur's calling stops = 21.9% RB target share; ARI RBs drew 124 targets even in 2025; Allgeier can't take routes, Conner is on an insurance deal — 65–85 targets is a realistic band, giving a script-proof PPR floor on the league's worst win total.
Rare talent floor under the volume: 38% forced-missed-tackle rate, 4.5 YAC/att, ~19.6% explosive-run rate, 4.36 at 212 (speed score ~117) — if the OL bounce-back (~15th projection) is real, the ceiling case (RB6-8, ~300 PPR) needs no TD luck, just the goal-line job.

Bear case

The TD environment is genuinely bad and his goal-line claim is unresolved: ARI managed 9 rush TDs all of 2025; a 4.5-win team plus an Allgeier goal-line role could hold Love to 5–6 total TDs — at pick 22 you're paying for roughly 8–10.
Three roster bodies + rookie pass-pro technique can delay the three-down consolidation into November: Allgeier took heavy spring work, Conner mixes on third down, and scouting reports say Love "gets walked back against power rushers" — if the passing-down package isn't his by October, the median drops a tier and the eval must be re-run.
Rookie RB on a bottom-5 2025 OL with a first-year play-caller installing a new offense: Jeanty's 3.7 ypc shows what forced volume behind a bad line looks like; the floor scenario (14 games, ~150 PPR) is a late-2nd-round loss, and rookie games-played risk is not theoretical (Hampton 2025: 9 games).

Projection & comps

Bottom-up from team profile volume (ARI.md, 2026-07-07: ~63 plays/g, ~26 designed rushes/g of which ~23 to RBs, ~33 pass att/g on ~59% dropbacks):

Scenario	Games	Carries	Rush yds	Targets	Rec	Rec yds	TD	PPR
Floor (20th)	14	~155 (48% RB share)	~605 (3.9 ypc)	44 (3.1/g)	33	~245	4	~150
Median (50th)	16	~215 (58% RB share)	~915 (4.25 ypc)	66 (4.1/g)	49	~375	7	~220
Ceiling (80th)	17	~250 (62% share)	~1,150 (4.6 ypc)	86 (5.1/g)	65	~530	11–12	~300

TD anchor (xTD, derived): ARI scored just 9 rush TDs on 366 carries in 2025 (data/stats/2025/rushing.csv) in a 69.9%-dropback offense; the 2026 run-lean rebuild plausibly lifts team rush TDs to ~11–13, with Love's inside-5 claim contested by Allgeier → median 5–6 rush + 1–2 receiving TDs. Never anchored to a rookie's college TD rate (36 rush TDs on 433 college carries does not translate).
Efficiency haircut: elite college rusher, but concern-band OL (2 returning starters, rookie R2 at RG — ARI.md) and the rookie precedent (Jeanty 3.7 ypc, 2025 verified) cap median YPC at ~4.25 despite the clean wide-zone fit.
Median PPG: ~13.8 — fringe RB1. Ceiling PPG ~17.6 — RB6-8 territory by 2025's curve (RB6 James Cook 302.2; RB12 Javonte Williams 242.8 — data/stats/2025).
Games risk: medium — rookie RB baseline; no injury history flagged (Sleeper 2026-07-07: no injury status); age 21 with a light odometer (~496 college touches).

Comp seasons:

Ashton Jeanty 2025 (LV, pick 6) — 266-975-5 rush, 55-346-5 rec, 245.1 PPR, RB11, 17 g (data/stats/2025 — verified). Bad team, forced volume, mediocre YPC: the median-to-ceiling template.
Breece Hall 2022 rookie under LaFleur (NYJ, R2.36) — 4.4 tgt/g, 16.4 PPR/g on 14.1 touches before the Week 7 ACL (CBS Sports 2026-06-18, via ARI.md). LaFleur's own rookie-RB usage pattern.
Bijan Robinson 2023 (ATL, pick 8) — ~272 PPR, RB10 as a rookie in a committee-flavored deployment (widely reported; exact line UNVERIFIED vs cached data). The "capital pays even when usage frustrates" case.
Omarion Hampton 2025 (LAC, pick 22) — 124 carries in 9 games (data/stats/2025 — verified). The floor/games-risk reminder for rookie RBs.
Saquon Barkley 2018 (NYG, pick 2) — ~91 rec, ~385 PPR rookie RB1 on a bad team (widely reported; UNVERIFIED vs cached data). The receiving-driven blue-sky analog, not a projection.

No external projections in data/projections/ (directory absent). One external check: Mike Clay projects ~8 TDs and ~300 touches (RotoBaller/FantasyLife roundups, July 2026) — consistent with the median-to-ceiling band here.

Usage profile — opportunity table (rookie: all NFL values are projections, no NFL sample exists)

Metric	Projected 2026	Band	Basis
Snap share	~55% early → 65%+ by midseason	Good → Elite path	LaFleur: expected "workhorse who can contribute on all three downs" (azcardinals.com/Yahoo, June 2026); Jeanty capital precedent
Opportunity share	~58–62% median	Good	Beat expectation "65:35 Love:Allgeier" on carries, Conner/Benson "crumbs" (SI, June 2026); ARI.md committee read
Weighted opp/g (carries + 2.5×targets)	~24	Good, near-elite	13.5 carries/g + 4.1 tgt/g from team-volume math above
High-value touches/g	~5.4 (4.1 tgt + ~1.3 inside-10 car)	Good → Elite	The verdict engine; target path per LaFleur 21.9% RB TS history (CBS 2026-06-18)
Inside-5 carry share	~40–50%, CONTESTED	Good band, key risk	"Allgeier may retain goal-line duty" (SI, June 2026); ARI.md flags goal line contested
Third-down snap share	~45–65% early, rising	Good	Conner mixes on 3rd down early (ARI.md); LaFleur praised Love's protection (post-draft presser, April 2026)
Routes/g · route participation	~18–20 · ~50%	Good	~37 team dropbacks/g × ~50% RP; college 63 career rec clears the ≥40 three-down threshold (rb.md §11)
Expected PPG (xFP)	~13.5–14.5	Fringe RB1	Derived from the table above; no provider xFP available for a rookie — UNVERIFIED against provider models

Receiving profile (§3, the PPR lever): college TPRR unavailable (UNVERIFIED), but 27-of-34 targets for 280 yds and 3 TD in 2025, 63-594-6 career (fightingirish.com career summary, retrieved 2026-07-07). Designed-usage signal is strong: LaFleur's Jets RB target share (21.9%, 2021–22 avg, CBS 2026-06-18) was scheme-driven (screens, angle/Texas, wheels), not checkdown leakage — and Brissett's compressed aDOT adds checkdown volume on top. ARI RBs drew 124 targets in 2025 (data/stats/2025/receiving.csv) under a *less* RB-friendly caller — the target pool is real and mostly vacated (Carter 45, Demercado 20 departed).

Pedigree (weighted up — thin NFL sample): R1.3 capital, $50.5M gtd (first all-time RB). Age 21 (born 2005-05-31, Sleeper 2026-07-07), 6'0" 212. Combine 4.36 forty (2nd among 2026 RBs; speed score ≈117, computed from 212 lbs/4.36) and class-best-tied ~9.4 RAS (NFL.com combine coverage / ras.football via search, retrieved 2026-07-07). 2025: Doak Walker winner, Heisman finalist; PFF 91.0 overall (5th among P4 RBs), 93.7 rush grade (2nd of 406), 38% forced-missed-tackle rate (2nd P4), 56 MTF, 4.5 YAC/att, 39 runs of 15+ on 199 carries (≈19.6% explosive rate) (PFF draft guide / Steelers Depot scouting, Feb 2026, retrieved 2026-07-07). Pass pro: real 2025 growth, willing vs blitzers, but technique a work in progress — "gets walked back against power rushers" (Steelers Depot/Big Board Lab, Feb 2026); LaFleur explicitly cited protection as a strength on draft night (April 2026). Career college mileage ~496 touches over 41 games — very light odometer.

Context (cites data/team-profiles/ARI.md, built 2026-07-07)

Regime: Gannon fired after 3-14; LaFleur (Shanahan tree, ex-Rams OC) is HC and calls plays. Stability: low — year-1 install drag expected. All 2025 role data is void; this eval is built from the new regime's stated intent plus capital.
Scheme fit: wide/outside zone marries Love's one-cut lateral burst — ARI.md names him a "clean fit." No scheme-mismatch fade flag.
QB: Brissett (weak-moderate security, contract hold-in unresolved into July 22 camp; Minshew behind, R3 rookie Beck developmental). Profile's contingency line: if it degrades to Beck, "the offense becomes Love-centric" — Love is the pass-catcher whose floor *holds* through QB chaos.
OL: 2025 was bottom-5 (59 sacks, 93.1 rush ypg/31st); 2 returning starters; projected ~15th for 2026 (Heavy/Yahoo, June 2026). Interior upgraded (Seumalo), edge shaky (Wilkinson at RT), rookie R2 at RG. Expect early yards-before-contact drag — that drag is the line's, not Love's (rb.md §5).
Committee: Allgeier (2yr/$12.25M — real early-down/goal-line claim, career-zero receiving role: 13–16 targets/season 2024–25, data/stats/2024–2025), Conner (age ~31, 3 games in 2025 on a foot injury, restructured 1yr/$3M ≈ insurance contract per rb.md §9), Benson (knee surgery, named trade candidate). Spring reps leaned Allgeier while Love integrated (azcardinals.com Birdwatch, June 2026) — noise vs $50.5M of capital, but the goal-line split is the live question.
Game script: win total 4.5, NFL-lowest — negative script lean. Does he leave the field trailing? Projected no — the receiving role and LaFleur's usage history make him the trailing-script back, which is why the projection barely moves with team quality (rb.md §4). He is not a grinder profile; the ≤6.5-win-total red flag does not attach.

Tripwires (re-run the eval on any of these)

Camp/preseason: Allgeier or Conner running the goal-line or two-minute package with the 1s in August reports — the HVT engine (TD access + passing downs) is the whole thesis.
Pass-pro failure reports in camp (beat writers on who protects in the two-minute drill) — gates the target projection per rb.md §9.
Brissett standoff escalates to a Beck start Week 1 or open QB chaos into September — offense-tier drop moves the floor down (partially offset by checkdown funnel; still re-run).
ADP rises past ~pick 15 (into the mid-1st) — the price-relative verdict flips toward HOLD/FADE; the edge here is the late-2nd cost.
Trey Benson is NOT traded and August reports describe a 4-man rotation — committee resolution assumption void.

Sources

data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv — ADP 22.2, FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07 (RB12; adjacent: Barkley 20.2, K.Walker 22.7)
data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json — age 21, DOB 2005-05-31, Notre Dame, 6'0"/212, years_exp 0, depth chart RB1, no injury status (2026-07-07)
data/stats/2025/ rushing.csv, receiving.csv, pbp_summary.csv — nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07 (ARI backfield 2025, ARI 9 rush TDs, 124 RB targets, 69.9% dropback; Jeanty/Hampton rookie lines; RB PPR finish curve)
data/stats/2024/ rushing.csv, receiving.csv — Conner 2024 healthy season (236-1,094-8, 55 tgt); Allgeier career receiving void (13 tgt)
data/team-profiles/ARI.md — built 2026-07-07 (LaFleur play-calling + 21.9% RB TS history, win total 4.5 [DraftKings via FOX 2026-05-18], OL bands, committee read, volume projections)
fightingirish.com / ESPN career stats (retrieved 2026-07-07) — college career: 41 g, 433-2,882-36 rushing (6.7 ypc), 63-594-6 receiving; 2025: 199-1,372-18 + 27 rec/34 tgt-280-3, Doak Walker, Heisman finalist. Note: ARI.md cites a CBS "8.4 ypc 2025" figure that conflicts with the verified 6.9 — the 6.9 (ESPN/PFF) is used here.
NFL.com combine coverage / Yahoo / CBS Sports (Feb–Mar 2026, retrieved 2026-07-07) — 4.36 forty (2nd among RBs), ~9.4 RAS (class-best tie)
PFF 2026 draft guide / Steelers Depot scouting report (Feb 2026, retrieved 2026-07-07) — 91.0 PFF grade, 93.7 rush grade, 38% MTF rate, 56 MTF, 4.5 YAC/att, 39 explosive runs; pass-pro read
azcardinals.com (June 2026): LaFleur three-down workhorse framing, Love pressers, Birdwatch OTA notes (Allgeier spring work); SI/onsi (June 2026): 65:35 expectation, Allgeier goal-line possibility, Conner backup framing; FantasyLife/DLF (July 2026): $50.5M gtd record, first rookie off fantasy boards
UNVERIFIED items: college TPRR/route data; provider xFP; Bijan 2023 and Barkley 2018 comp lines (pre-cache seasons, widely reported); exact spring first-team rep counts