Arizona Cardinals

ARI — team profile

Built per methodology/team-context.md. Every number needs a source + as-of date or the UNVERIFIED mark. Position evals cite this file; they do not re-research it.

Regime change: Jonathan Gannon fired after a 3-14 2025 (lost final 9); Mike LaFleur (ex-Rams OC) hired HC and calls plays himself. Kyler Murray released March 2026 (signed MIN). RB Jeremiyah Love drafted No. 3 overall. Coaching-change protocol (methodology §9) applied throughout.

Play-caller

• Calls plays: Mike LaFleur (HC) — confirmed; LaFleur said at his introductory presser he will call plays, and OC Nathaniel Hackett was hired explicitly as a non-calling assistant/plan-builder (Arizona Sports "Will Mike LaFleur call Cardinals' plays?", Revenge of the Birds "Despite the Hackett hire, LaFleur will call plays", NFL.com Hackett feature — Feb 2026).
• Tenure with team: Year 1 (hired Jan/Feb 2026) · Prior relationship with QB1: none direct with Brissett; Kendrick Bourne overlap from SF (LaFleur SF pass-game coordinator era, per Revenge of the Birds 3/2026).
• First time calling plays since 2022 (Jets). Rams 2023–25 OC was non-calling (McVay calls plays) — excluded from the table per methodology §2, but note: he was inside the Rams' shift toward more multiple-TE personnel (CBS Sports, 2026-06-18).

Last 3 play-calling stops (skip non-calling years):

Read: LaFleur is a Shanahan-tree caller — outside-zone run game married to motion-heavy West Coast timing concepts — whose Jets raw pass rates (62.8%) were roster/script-inflated, not identity. His signature fantasy tendency is heavy RB receiving usage (21.9% RB target share) and real TE volume; his Jets stops were criticized for predictability (run-heavy 1st down, pass-heavy from 11). With a No. 3-overall RB, a limited veteran QB, and the league's lowest win total, expect run-first *intent* partially drowned by negative script: elite RB+TE target shares, mid-tier WR volume. Year-1 install drag expected (methodology §9): slower pace and lower motion early. All Gannon/Petzing-era scheme roles are void.

QB situation

• QB1: Jacoby Brissett — named the starter by the team after free agency, ending competition with Minshew (Revenge of the Birds / Yahoo, spring 2026). Security: weak-to-moderate — only $1.5M guaranteed on a $4.88M deal; he held out of voluntary OTAs and turned mandatory minicamp (June 8–10) into a "hold-in" seeking a reworked contract; unresolved as of late June, talks continuing before camp opens July 22 (ESPN 2026-06; Bleacher Report 2026-07). Benching risk: live late-season — R3 rookie Carson Beck (pick 65) is the developmental successor on a 4.5-win team.
• Backup: Gardner Minshew (1 yr, $8.25M — ESPN FA tracker 2026-03-18) — tier B (functional vet, offense compresses); QB3 Carson Beck (R3 rookie) — tier C if reached.
• Contingency line: If Brissett misses time: Minshew, tier B — pass rate roughly holds, aDOT drops, more scatter-shot distribution; MHJ/Wilson lose a half-tier, McBride and Love (checkdown/screen volume) hold. If it gets to Beck (tier C), every pass-catcher's floor drops a tier and the offense becomes Love-centric.

O-line

• Projected starters LT–RT (azcardinals.com projection, 2026-06-19): LT Paris Johnson Jr. · LG Isaac Seumalo (FA, 3yr/$31.5M ex-PIT) · C Hjalte Froholdt · RG Chase Bisontis (ROOKIE, R2 pick 34 — battle vs Isaiah Adams, Adams ran first-team in spring; Bisontis expected to win) · RT Elijah Wilkinson (FA, 2yr ex-ATL). Departed: G Will Hernandez (FA), OT Jonah Williams (released/FA). Matt Pryor signed as swing depth.
• Interior vs edge: Interior is the *strength* — Seumalo is a proven vet, Froholdt returning, Bisontis brings R2 pedigree but is a rookie interior starter (expect early pressure spikes, methodology §4). Edge is the concern: Wilkinson is a journeyman at RT — expect chips/quick game, compressed aDOT. Heavy.com/Yahoo advanced-metrics projection has the unit ~15th for 2026 (2026-06), a bounce-back bet from a bottom-5 2025.

Scheme family

• Run scheme: Wide/outside zone (Shanahan tree; JetsXFactor film 2021; CBS Sports 2026-06-18) — fits one-cut, lateral-burst backs: Jeremiyah Love (8.4 ypc, 21.4% explosive-rush rate at Notre Dame 2025 — CBS 6/18/26) is a clean fit; Allgeier fits zone; Conner shifts to short-yardage/gap situations.
• Pass-game family: Shanahan/McVay tree — motion, condensed sets, PA, YAC engine, intermediate in-breakers; healthy RB targets (21.9% at NYJ) and real TE volume; McVay-era comfort with multiple-TE looks. Implication: McBride (slot/YAC monster) and Love (satellite usage) are the scheme winners; WR3 (Bourne, slot) is gated by 12-personnel appetite; boundary deep aDOT profiles are capped by Brissett + RT concerns.

Target/touch hierarchy & vacated math

Departed (2025 targets / carries — data/stats/2025/receiving.csv, rushing.csv, pulled 2026-07-07):

• WR Greg Dortch → DET (33 tgt / 7 car)
• WR Zay Jones — unsigned FA (18 tgt / 0)
• RB Michael Carter — UFA, not re-signed (45 tgt / 92 car)
• RB Emari Demercado → KC, 1yr/$1.25M 2026-03-12 (20 tgt / 44 car)
• QB Kyler Murray — released 2026-03, signed MIN (0 tgt / 29 car)

Vacated targets: 116 · Vacated carries: 172 — but heavy capital added (No. 3 pick RB + $11.5M WR), so this is *re-allocated*, not a feeding-opportunity green flag.

Arrivals (claim):

• RB Jeremiyah Love — R1 pick 3 (highest-drafted RB since Barkley 2018) — presumptive workhorse claim over everyone (NFL.com 2026-04)
• RB Tyler Allgeier — 2yr/$12.25M (ESPN tracker 2026-03-18)
• WR Kendrick Bourne — 2yr/$11.47M; SF/LaFleur familiarity (ESPN tracker 2026-03-18)
• QB Gardner Minshew — 1yr/$8.25M; QB Carson Beck — R3 pick 65
• WR Reggie Virgil — R5 pick 143; WR Devin Duvernay (returner), Simi Fehoko (depth); TE Teagan Quitoriano (1yr)
• RB James Conner — retained on restructured 1yr/$3M ($2.1M gtd) after being a cut candidate (ESPN 2026-03) — reduced role

Projected pecking order (contested marks noted):

Slot projection: Kendrick Bourne plays the slot most among WRs (Dortch and Jones, 2025's slot duo, both departed; McBride also aligns heavily in the slot but is TE).

RB committee split: Early-down: Love (lead, drafted to start — azcardinals.com 6/19/26) with Allgeier the change-of-pace/relief · Passing-down: Love (LaFleur history says the lead back keeps routes), Conner mixing in on 3rd down · Goal-line: CONTESTED — Love vs Conner/Allgeier short-yardage; assume Love gets first claim with Conner vulture risk. Trey Benson: on roster but a named trade candidate with a murky role after knee surgery (Last Word on Sports 2026-05-07); Bam Knight re-signed as depth.

Game environment

• Vegas win total: 4.5 (DraftKings, Over +125 / Under −150, per FOX Sports 2026-05-18) — tied with MIA for NFL-lowest; NFL's 4th-hardest schedule → script lean: negative
• Projected plays/game: ~63 (2025 actual 66.6 was trailing-script-inflated — data/stats/2025/pbp_summary; LaFleur ran league-average pace at NYJ; year-1 install drag trims, chronic trailing adds hurry-up back)
• Projected pass rate: ~59% dropback basis (LaFleur run-first intent with a No. 3-pick RB ≈ 54–56% neutral, +3–5 pts from the worst script lean in the league; 2025's 69.9% dropback rate — pbp_summary — regresses hard with the RB investment)
• Projected pass attempts/game: ~33 · rush attempts/game: ~26 (inputs: 63 plays × 59% = ~37 dropbacks, minus ~3 sacks/g behind a concern-band OL and ~1 scramble → ~33 attempts; remaining ~26 designed runs, RBs ~22–24 of them)

Defensive identity

Per methodology §8 — consumed by DST evals (dst.md §3) and /weekly-edge coverage-matchup reads (in-season.md §2).

• Runs the defense: Nick Rallis (DC) — confirmed retained by LaFleur despite the HC change; Rallis has called the ARI defense since 2023 (Heavy.com "Cardinals Make Surprising Defensive Coordinator Decision", Arizona Sports staff round-out, Feb 2026). New defensive staff under him incl. Pete Kwiatkowski (Arizona Sports 2026-02).
• Tenure with team: 4th season (2023–) · New DC: no (dc_new: false) — continuity flag, though note HC-level change above him.
• Front/scheme family: Hybrid odd front, heavy sub-package — 57.0% sub rate, 41.2% light-box rate (Sharp Football defensive tendencies, 2025 season, as-of 2026-06-29); Cover-4-heavy zone shell (2nd-most Cover 4 snaps in 2025 — Match Quarters / azcardinals.com reporting, 2025 season).

• Key defensive arrivals/departures: Edge: no change — Josh Sweat (12 sacks, 13.9% pressure rate 2025 — Sharp 7/6/26) requested out and drew Packers trade buzz but the team says he is not being traded (Rapoport via NBC/PFT, late June 2026) — watch item. CB1: Will Johnson (2025 R2) ascends after 10 PBUs in 12 rookie games; Garrett Williams rehabbing a 12/21/25 Achilles tear — nickel Sean Murphy-Bunting starts Week 1 (azcardinals.com 2026-06-18). Other arrivals: DT Roy Lopez, DT Andrew Billings, DE Jonah Williams, S Andrew Wingard, LB Jack Gibbens. Departures: S Jalen Thompson (FA), DT Dalvin Tomlinson (released), LB Akeem Davis-Gaither (FA) (ESPN tracker 2026-03-18; Sharp 2026-07-06).
• Shadow-CB tendency: Unknown — Will Johnson is a second-year CB1 with no established travel history; 2025 usage was sides-based UNVERIFIED.

Read: A zone-heavy (74.7%), Cover-4-shell defense with a modest blitz rate that could not generate pressure in 2025 (27th pressure, 28th sacks, 28.7 ppg allowed — def_summary) — soft underneath/option-route territory for opposing slots and TEs, and a weak DST pressure profile unless Sweat gets edge help that never arrived this offseason. Continuity (Rallis year 4) is the one green flag; the floor is bad-defense volume for opponents.

Stability & change log

• Stability: low — per methodology §10: first-year HC/play-caller (first calling job since 2022) + QB1 change (Murray released; Brissett newly installed with an unresolved contract hold-in) + OL overhaul (2 returning starters, rookie R2 in an open RG battle) + full backfield turnover. Two-plus major changes = low; §9 protocol applied (scheme-dependent roles from the Petzing era are void).
• Watch items: (1) Brissett contract standoff into July 22 camp report — escalation or a Minshew/Beck pivot fires the QB trigger; (2) RG battle Bisontis vs Adams; (3) Trey Benson trade; (4) Josh Sweat trade rumor revival (voids defensive identity section); (5) Garrett Williams (Achilles) Week 1 availability; (6) Michael Wilson extension talks; (7) win total move ≥1.5 (currently 4.5).