Jacoby Brissett

Jacoby Brissett — QB, ARI (2026)

Verdict

HOLD (medium confidence) at "mock-undrafted" in 1QB (FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07; 1QB mocks draft ~20+ QBs through pick ~172 without him). The market and the profile agree, which is what makes this HOLD rather than TARGET: Brissett was quietly QB8 in per-start PPG (19.4, league scoring) across 12 starts in 2025 with the most stable week-to-week output at the position (11 of 12 starts ≥15 points, stdev 3.6) — but every point of it was volume-bought (40.3 att/gm on a 69.9% team dropback rate), and the new regime spent the No. 3 overall pick on a RB and hired a run-first Shanahan-tree play-caller explicitly to unwind that volume. He has no rushing component (13.8 rush yds/gm, 3 designed non-sneak carries all season), a live contract standoff, and a day-2 rookie (Carson Beck, R3.65) waiting for a late-season audition on a 4.5-win team. No "why the market is wrong" line is required: the market sees a streamer and prices him as one. Do not draft him in 12-team 1QB; put him at the top of the Week 1 streamer/bye-week watchlist, because the trailing-script rerun case is genuinely live.

Projection & comps

Bottom-up, two components (scoring-framework §2), league scoring (4pt pass TD, −1 INT, −2 fum lost). Start base: 15 median starts (named starter; day-2-rookie bridge base rate per qb.md §8 says Beck "maybe never" starts, but a 4.5-win team creates a real Weeks 15–18 pivot window, and the contract standoff adds tail risk).

Passing (median): ~63 plays/gm × ~59% dropback − ~3 sacks/gm ≈ 33 att/gm (team profile projection, 2026-07-07; his 2025 starter rate was 40.3 — the entire projection delta is this haircut) × 15 = ~500 att × 6.9 YPA (2025 actual 6.94; corps continuity passes — McBride/MHJ/Wilson return, Bourne added, only ~116 targets vacated — so YPA carries, minus year-1 install drag) = ~3,450 yds. 21 pass TD anchored to xTD: his 2025 passing xTD was 23.1 vs 23 actual (yardline-bucket model from pbp, computed 2026-07-08) — a clean 4.7% earned rate — trimmed to ~4.2% for fewer RZ dropbacks in a Love-centric red zone. 9 INT from INT-worthy rate (FTN 2.05% of attempts, 10 IW throws vs 8 actual INTs — ledger roughly in line, no luck either direction), not from last year's count.

Rushing (median — projected separately; there is no floor here): ~2.6 carries/gm = mostly scrambles (22 scrambles/149 yds in 2025) plus the sneak package (11 QB sneaks — FTN) → ~150 yds, 2 rush TD (rushing xTD 1.49 in 2025 vs 1 actual; the sneak role is the only TD equity). Age 33: scramble component projected flat-to-down, never up (qb.md §3). The rushing component adds ~25 points to the season — it is seasoning, not a floor.

Games risk: medium — durable 10-year vet who didn't miss a snap to injury in 2025, but age 33 (b. 1992-12-11 — Sleeper JSON, 2026-07-07) behind a concern-band OL with league-high sack exposure (43 sacks in 14 games); start-count risk is benching-shaped, handled in the floor.

Sanity check vs external: no data/projections/ directory exists locally. CBS 2026 outlook (fetched 2026-07-08): "not worth drafting in most one-quarterback leagues... mid-round selection in multiple-QB formats," early ~QB30 market with some analysts at QB27, flagging volume regression + a likely Beck audition — directionally identical to this eval.

Comp seasons (profile: high-floor low-ceiling vet bridge on a bad team): Jacoby Brissett 2022 CLE (his own bridge-year template — startable weeks, no ceiling); Gardner Minshew 2023 IND (vet bridge, streamable QB2, eventually league-average); Joe Flacco 2024 IND (floor case — bad-team vet, benched mid-season); Ryan Fitzpatrick 2019 MIA (ceiling case — bad-team trailing volume made him a stretch-run fringe QB1); Baker Mayfield 2023 TB (ceiling shape — written-off vet holds job all 17 on volume + intact weapons).

Usage profile — opportunity core (qb.md §2)

2025 REG values computed from nflverse pbp + cached CSVs (pulled 2026-07-07, computed 2026-07-08); starter-only splits = his 12 starts, Weeks 6–18. 2024 (NE, 7 games) in parentheses.

Rushing decomposition (qb.md §3): scrambles 22-for-149-0, designed 14-for-20-1 (11 sneaks), kneels 2 (2025 pbp). At 33 there is nothing to age-project upward; the sneak package is the only sticky piece and it survives only while he starts.

Efficiency (qb.md §5):

INT ledger read: 8 INTs on 10 FTN IW throws (16 PFF TWP) — no meaningful luck in either direction; no mispricing edge here.

TD ledger read (the notable finding): passing xTD 23.1 vs 23 actual — his 4.7% TD rate was *earned by attempt volume and field position*, not luck. There is no TD regression to give back at the rate level; what regresses is the attempt base underneath it.

Archetype (qb.md §10): garbage-time hero with a pocket-volume-passer engine — "cheap floor, streaming and bye-week gold; capped in wins; never pay a top-12 price." The price is zero, which is exactly why this is HOLD and not FADE.

Benching-risk screen (qb.md §8): EPA/dropback ~0.00 (not bottom-8) + day-2 backup capital (Beck, R3.65) + a regime that didn't sign him (Gannon-era signing) but *did* name him starter → one-and-two-halves of the three triggers. Live late-season risk, not AVOID-grade — and the price carries no starter cost to protect anyway.

Context (from data/team-profiles/ARI.md, built 2026-07-07)

• Regime reset: Gannon fired after 3-14; Mike LaFleur (HC) calls plays (Hackett is a non-calling OC). Shanahan-tree: outside zone, motion, PA, heavy RB/TE target shares (21.9% RB target share at NYJ; Conklin 19.7% target rate). Kyler Murray released (MIN); Brissett named the starter in spring.
• The volume problem is a personnel decision: RB Jeremiyah Love at No. 3 overall — the highest-drafted RB since 2018 — plus Allgeier and a retained Conner. Team profile projects ~63 plays/gm, ~59% dropback, ~33 att/gm. The counterweight: Vegas win total 4.5 (NFL-lowest, DraftKings via FOX 2026-05-18), a defense that was 27th in pressure and allowed 28.7 ppg, and a play-caller whose Jets teams passed 62.8% when the roster forced it — 2025 ARI (Gannon) also intended balance and finished at a 69.9% dropback rate.
• Contract standoff (live): $4.9M deal, only $1.5M guaranteed — less guaranteed than backup Minshew's $5.8M. Held out of voluntary OTAs, turned June minicamp into a hold-in seeking more 2026 guarantees (not an extension); sides "significantly far apart" heading into July 22 camp report (NFL.com, ESPN, SI/Arizona Sports, June–July 2026). Prevailing reporting still has him as the Week 1 starter.
• Weapons/continuity (qb.md §4 check: passes): McBride (169 targets, 27.4% TS), a healthy MHJ, breakout Michael Wilson (1,006 yds), plus Bourne in the slot. Only ~116 targets departed — believe the YPA carryover. LaFleur's scheme feeds RB/TE, which caps Brissett's aDOT but supports completion efficiency.
• OL: 2 of 5 starters return; 38% pressure allowed and 59 sacks in 2025; interior upgraded (Seumalo), rookie R2 at RG, journeyman RT — projected ~15th for 2026 (Heavy/Yahoo, 2026-06). Better, not good — and Brissett's 23.8% pressure-to-sack compounds whatever leaks.
• Backups: Minshew (tier B) and R3 rookie Carson Beck — day-2 capital per prospect-pedigree norms = developmental, base-rate "maybe never starts this season" (qb.md §8), but a lost season invites a December audition.

Tripwires (re-run this eval if any fire)

• Contract standoff escalates — camp holdout past July 22, trade, or release → eval void (and the entire ARI passing profile with it).
• Minshew or Beck takes first-team reps in camp/preseason, or any beat report of a planned in-season Beck timeline → cut the start base and floor.
• Early-season ARI dropback rate ≥63% (script drowning the run-first install) → upgrade to priority streamer in 1QB / TARGET in 2QB.
• A 1QB ADP inside ~pick 160 materializes (post-camp hype) → price is no longer free; likely flips to FADE.
• McBride or MHJ misses significant time, or the win total moves ≥1.5 points → re-derive the environment.