JAX
CLE
@DEN
NE
@CIN
PHI
HOU
IND
@BAL
@TEN
@NYG
@CHI
PIT
@DAL
WASTrevor Lawrence — QB, JAX (2026)
Verdict
FADE at 80.6 (QB9). Fine player, wrong price in this format. Why the market is wrong: it is paying a 7th-round pick for a career year whose touchdown total ran ~7 scores over expectation (38 actual pass+rush TD vs 32.8 combined xTD — computed from nflverse pbp, 2026-07-07), from a QB whose accuracy metrics stayed in the concern band even while it happened (CPOE −2.7, NGS 2025) and whose INT ledger flattered him (12 INT vs 18 INT-worthy throws — FTN charting, pulled 2026-07-07) — and it is doing so squarely in the 1QB QB7–12 dead zone (qb.md §9), where his ~313-point median is within ~1–2 PPG of QBs costing 2–5 rounds less (Goff 90.1, Purdy 96.3, Caleb Williams 106.3, Nix 115.6 — FFC, 2026-07-07). The profile is genuinely good — elite goal-line package, real continuity, back-half efficiency surge — which is why this is FADE (price), not AVOID (risk): at a round-plus discount (mid-90s or later), he flips to a TARGET.
Bull case
- Elite, scheme-protected goal-line role: 11 inside-5 carries (9 designed), 16 QB sneaks, 20.9% RZ rush share — with the same play-caller returning, the ~5–6 rush TD floor (≈33 pts, worth ~800 pass yards) is the stickiest QB-TD signal in the sport, and it survives regression from 9.
- Environment continuity at its best: same caller (yr 2, no install drag), same top-4 targets, top-third OL, elite deep-ball rate (13.4%) and aDOT (8.7) — plus a 7.3% drop rate and a −0.028→+0.194 EPA/dropback back-half arc that say 2025's full-season efficiency *understates* where the offense exited the season.
- First fully healthy offseason under Coen (rehabbed the AC joint through spring 2025), unanimous positive camp reports, and a year-2-in-system profile that historically supports efficiency carryover.
Bear case
- The TD total was ~7 over expectation: 9 rush TD vs 5.7 xTD and 29 pass TD vs 27.1 xTD (and a career-high 5.2% pass TD rate vs ~4.2% career). Strip the overage and 2025 was a ~19.1 PPG season — fringe QB5–8 usage, not the QB4 the market saw.
- The accuracy never came: CPOE −2.7/−3.3 in consecutive seasons (concern band, sticky, QB-owned), 12 INT on 18 INT-worthy throws (luck about to land), pressure-to-sack 22.8% with a slow 2.87s release. The career year was environment-carried; pay for the environment, not a talent leap.
- Dead-zone price in a 1QB, 4pt-TD format: QB9 at 80.6 with a 21-rush-yds/gm profile is starter cost without a top-3 positional edge (qb.md §9) — dual-threats Daniels (86.6) and Hurts (93.1) go *later*, and ~300-pt medians (Goff 90.1, Purdy 96.3, Nix 115.6) cost 1–4 rounds less. Positive game scripts (9.5 win total) cap the attempt ceiling at ~33/gm.
Projection & comps
Bottom-up, two components, league scoring (4pt pass TD assumed). Median build (16.5 games):
| Component | Build | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards | 33.0 att/gm × 16.5 gm = 545 att × 7.2 YPA = 3,924 yds | 157.0 |
| Pass TD | anchored to 2025 passing xTD rate (27.1 xTD / 562 att = 4.8%) × 545 = 26 | 104.0 |
| INT | from 3.2% INT-worthy rate → ~2.4% realized = 13 | −13.0 |
| Rush yards | 4.5 car/gm × 16.5 = 74 car → ~355 yds (21.5/gm) | 35.5 |
| Rush TD | anchored to 2025 rushing xTD 5.7 (goal-line role intact) → 5.5 | 33.0 |
| Fumbles lost | ~1.5 | −3.0 |
| Median | ≈ 313 |
- Floor 250 (20th pct): ~14–15 games (2024 concussion + left-shoulder AC surgery history — NFL.com, Dec 2024) and/or efficiency slip to ~6.9 YPA / 4.3% TD rate.
- Median 313: would have ranked ~QB5 in 2025 and ~QB9–10 in 2024 (league-scoring ranks computed from
data/stats/*/passing.csv+rushing.csv, pulled 2026-07-07). - Ceiling 358 (80th pct): 17 games, back-half 2025 efficiency (+0.194 EPA/dropback wks 10–18) partially persists → ~4,335 yds, 30 pass TD, 7 rush TD.
- Games risk: medium — 17/17 in 2025, but 2024 ended on IR (concussion + AC-joint surgery); carry volume (~4.5/gm) is below the ≥8/gm nudge threshold, so no extra haircut. Age 26 (27 on 2026-10-06 — Sleeper players JSON, 2026-07-07): the age-28 rushing haircut has not started; rush component projected flat.
- Comps (league scoring, computed from cached 2024–25 tables, pulled 2026-07-07): Baker Mayfield 2024 under Coen 381.8 (ceiling-side — the Coen-system best case), Trevor Lawrence 2025 352.2 (80th-pct repeat), Dak Prescott 2025 319.8 and Bo Nix 2025 309.8 (356 rush yds, 5 rush TD — the median twin), Baker Mayfield 2025 post-Coen 284.9 (floor-side).
- External sanity check: consensus models project ~3,947 pass yds / 27 pass TD / 333 rush yds / 5 rush TD (CBS Sports 2026 outlook, fetched 2026-07-07) — agrees with the median build within noise. No
data/projections/files exist to check against.
Usage profile (opportunity core, qb.md §2)
All 2025 numbers REG-only; nflverse pbp / cached CSVs pulled or computed 2026-07-07. 2024 = 10-game injury season.
| Metric | 2025 | 2024 | Band | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rush att/gm (excl. kneels) | 4.4 (75/17) | 2.3 | Good (4–7) | Modest volume; back half rose to 4.8/gm |
| Designed rush rate | 2.9% (32/1,097 plays) | 1.0% | Below good band (4–8%) | Coen tripled it year-over-year, but still thin; goal-line-concentrated |
| Scramble rate | 6.7% (43/643 DB) | 4.1% | Elite (≥6%) | Scramble-weighted profile = fragile ex-goal-line (qb.md §2) |
| Rush yds/gm | 21.1 (359/17) | 11.9 | Good (20–35) | 7.2 YPC on scrambles, 1.8 on (goal-line) designed |
| RZ rush share | 20.9% (24 of 115 team RZ car) | 5.7% | Elite (≥18%) | Real TD access |
| Inside-5 carries | 11 (9 designed); 16 sneaks total | 3 | Elite (≥10) | The sneak/keeper package is the profile's crown jewel |
| Rushing xTD | 5.71 vs 9 actual | 1.48 vs 3 | Good (3–6) | +3.3 TD over expectation → regress to ~5.5 |
| Dropbacks/gm | 37.8 (643/17) | 31.8 | Good, borderline elite | Volume gate cleared |
| Pass att/gm | 33.1 | 28.8 | Good (30–35) | Capped by positive scripts (13-4 team) |
| Team PROE | −0.4% (all downs w/ xpass, nflverse) | −4.9% | Neutral | Conflicts with the "6th in PROE" web-rank claim in the team profile (StatRankings/DraftSharks, value UNVERIFIED); computed value is primary |
| xFP | Provider xFP UNVERIFIED (no export on hand). Internal proxy: xTD-adjusted 2025 = ~325 pts / 19.1 PPG (computed from nflverse pbp, 2026-07-07) | — | Fringe top-6 | Usage says QB5–8, not QB1–4 |
Efficiency & talent signal (qb.md §5)
| Metric | 2025 | 2024 | Band | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPA/dropback | +0.080 — split: −0.028 wks 1–9 / +0.194 wks 10–18 | +0.010 | Good | Back-half surge is real but a half-season sample (framework §3: single-season efficiency spikes are regression fodder; two seasons required to believe a change) |
| CPOE | −2.7 (NGS season; pbp mean −1.9) | −3.3 (NGS) | Concern (<−1.5) | Sticky, QB-owned, and negative in both seasons — the career year happened *despite* below-expectation accuracy, i.e., it was environment-carried |
| INT-worthy rate (TWP proxy, FTN) | 3.20% (18/562) | 4.17% | Mid | Improving — but 12 actual INTs vs 18 IW throws = ledger cleaner than the process; mild luck-to-land signal (qb.md §5 fade side) |
| Pressure rate on his dropbacks | 28.0% (180/643) | 27.0% | Good (<30%) | OL is top-third (9th PBWR — team profile) |
| Pressure-to-sack | 22.8% (41/180) | 20.9% | High-mid (>24% = concern) | 41 sacks; NGS time-to-throw 2.87s (slow) → partially QB-owned |
| Deep-ball rate (20+ air yds) | 13.4% (75/560) | 15.1% | Elite (≥12%) | Real ceiling source with BTJ |
| aDOT | 8.7 (pbp) / 9.0 intended (NGS) | 9.4 | Elite band (7.5–9.5) | Healthy depth profile |
| Play-action rate | ~22% (team profile, FTN join) | — | Low-good | Play-caller-owned; room to grow in Coen yr 2 |
| Drop rate on his targets | 7.3% (41/562, FTN) | 4.5% | Above 6% concern line | Hidden bull point: completions/TDs suppressed below his control |
Archetype (qb.md §10): volume passer with a scheme-protected goal-line rush package — between "pocket volume passer" and dual-threat. Not a §10 dual-threat elite (21 rush yds/gm < 35), so per §9 he does not clear the "top-3-positional-edge" bar that justifies paying up at a onesie position.
Context (from data/team-profiles/JAX.md, built 2026-07-07)
- Play-caller continuity, year 2: Liam Coen (HC) confirmed keeping play-calling; OC Udinski publicly deferred ("Play-calling won't be a part of my role" — jaguars.com/SI, 2026 offseason). McVay-tree, high volume (66.2 plays/gm 2025), 47.1% motion, ~22% PA. Designed QB runs persist while the caller persists (qb.md §3) — the sneak/keeper package is his install.
- Continuity check (qb.md §4): top-4 pass-catchers all return (BTJ, Meyers — extended 3yr/$60M Dec 2025, Washington, Strange); only ~21% of targets vacated (113/547) → believe the YPA carryover. OL returns 5 bodies / 4 in the same spots, 9th in PBWR; watch item: LT Van Lanen's knee (Walker Little fallback is a downgrade).
- Script lean: Vegas win total 9.5 (BetMGM, 2026-05-20) → positive script lean; ~65 plays/gm × ~60% pass → ~33 att/gm, matching 2025. Volume is good, not elite, and capped by winning.
- Job security: absolute — $275M through 2030, coming off 13-4; backup is journeyman Nick Mullens. Zero benching/bridge risk.
- 2026 offseason signal: first fully healthy offseason of the Coen era; beat coverage unanimously positive on command/accuracy — Coen: "I have to believe it was under five [INTs] throughout all of OTAs and minicamp" (jaguars.com, June 2026; SI "best offseason yet," June 2026). Soft signal, not evidence (framework §3 tier 5).
- Goal-line competition: Etienne's 260 carries left; short-yardage back Chris Rodriguez Jr. arrived (2yr/$10M, Coen's Kentucky RB) — the RB goal-line role is contested, a mild threat to sneak-adjacent TD equity.
- Travis Hunter (2025 #2 pick) is the upside kicker at WR, but the GM signaled a CB-emphasis for 2026 and his offense snaps are contested (CBS Sports, June 2026).
Tripwires (re-run on any of these)
- League settings confirmed as 6pt pass TD and/or superflex → verdict void; flips toward HOLD/TARGET immediately.
- ADP slides past ~95 (QB11–12 range) → flips to TARGET: "rushing/goal-line volume intact at a QB12+ price" is a §12 green flag.
- Coen loses play-calling or leaves (or any staff shakeup) → designed/goal-line package void; re-derive everything environment-owned.
- Camp/preseason reports of a reduced QB sneak-keeper package or Rodriguez winning the inside-5 role outright → rush-TD floor drops below 4, median falls ~10 pts.
- Van Lanen (LT) setback or a top-3 pass-catcher injury → passing-environment downgrade; the CPOE concern-band risk activates.
Sources
data/stats/2025/+data/stats/2024/— passing.csv, rushing.csv, ngs_passing.csv, ftn_charting.csv, participation.csv, pbp_summary.csv (nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07)- nflverse play-by-play 2024–2025 REG via nflreadpy — dropbacks, EPA/dropback, scramble/designed split, RZ/inside-5/inside-10 carries, rushing & passing xTD (league TD rate by yardline bucket), PROE (xpass), weekly splits; FTN join for INT-worthy/throwaway/drop/sneak; participation join for pressure and pressure-to-sack (all computed 2026-07-07)
data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv— FFC PPR 1QB mocks, 2026-07-07 (Lawrence 80.6, QB9; full QB landscape)data/team-profiles/JAX.md— built 2026-07-07 (Coen play-calling confirmation, OL/PBWR, depth chart, vacated targets, Vegas 9.5 win total via BetMGM 2026-05-20, Mullens backup tier)data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json— age 26 / DOB 1999-10-06, years_exp 5- jaguars.com — Coen on Lawrence's offseason ("calm mind," "under five" INTs all spring), OTA/minicamp coverage (June 2026, fetched 2026-07-07)
- SI Jaguars (On SI) — "Why Trevor Lawrence's 2026 Offseason Was His Best Yet" (June 2026); minicamp observations (June 2026)
- CBS Sports — "2026 Outlook: Trevor Lawrence" (~3,947/27 pass, 333/5 rush projection; fetched 2026-07-07)
- NFL.com / CBS Sports — Dec 2024 concussion + left-shoulder AC-joint surgery, IR placement (Dec 2024)
- UNVERIFIED: provider xFP (no Fantasy Points/PlayerProfiler export on hand); exact 2025 PROE rank value ("6th" per StatRankings/DraftSharks via team profile — conflicts with computed −0.4% all-downs PROE)