Don't Look at My Team

Parker Washington — WR, JAX (2026)

Verdict — HOLD (medium confidence) at ADP 74.7 (FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07 — WR36, round 7 of 12-team)

The market's case is legitimate and mostly correct: Washington led the 2025 Jaguars in targets (95) and receiving yards (847), owned the F/slot role from Week 7 on with 85–95% route participation in healthy weeks, earned 23.7% of the team's third-down targets, and enters year 2 of Coen's top-6-PROE offense in a contract year with Travis Hunter shifting primarily to CB. The problem is the market has *fully* paid for that case — and then some: at 74.7 he is priced as the room's WR1, ahead of Brian Thomas Jr. (84.3) and Jakobi Meyers (98.5), both of whom hold equal-or-stronger target claims (BTJ: R1 capital, team-high 26.9% AYS even in his down year, loudest offseason rebound reports; Meyers: 6.8 targets/gm in 9 JAX games, $40M guaranteed). Coen's 2025 team-high WR target share was just 17.4% — this play-caller spreads it — so Washington's median is a ~95–100-target, ~11.5 PPG season (≈WR34 by 2025 PPG), which is almost exactly what pick 74.7 buys. Profile and price agree: no lean either way. If he slides toward round 8 (past ~90), he flips to TARGET; the discount in this room currently lives on his teammates, not on him.

Bull case

The role change is structural and already banked: from Week 7 on he ran 85–95% of routes in healthy weeks with 6.1 tgt/gm, 23.7% of third-down targets, and WR-best 3.1 third-down YPRR; Coen is publicly expanding his trust, Hunter is moving to defense, and 113 targets vacated with no meaningful capital added. Full-season RP ~90% on 2025's late-season TPRR alone makes the median projection conservative.
Production was usage-true, not a spike: xFP 180 vs 173 actual, xTD 5.5–6.6 vs 5 actual, drop rate 4.1%, 90.6% catch rate on catchable balls, YAC over expected positive two straight years, and a genuine four-depth route tree with 0.33 TPRR vs man — nothing in the profile is begging to regress.
Age-24 contract year in a top-6 PROE, 66-play offense with QB/play-caller/OL continuity — the environment multiplier is as good as any non-elite offense in football, and his 8-game Meyers-era pace (≈14 PPG) extrapolates to a WR15–18 season if he merely keeps the 2025 pecking order.

Bear case

He's the most expensive WR in a room where he has, at best, the third-strongest claim: the market prices him ahead of BTJ (R1 capital, 26.9% AYS, dominant June reports, drops/injury excuses for 2025) and Meyers (6.8 tgt/gm, $40M gtd, 24.6% TS wks 13–18) — and Coen's own 2025 offense proves he won't concentrate targets on anyone (team-high TS 17.4%).
The market bought a 3-game heater: weeks 16–18 (TPRR 0.32, YPRR 3.86, 28% TS) drove the WR27 finish; the full-season reality was 17.4% TS, 0.43 WOPR, 24.3% AYS, 11.5 PPG (WR34 PPG) — and 12 of those points were two punt-return TDs that don't repeat. Priced at WR36, the "value" is one thin tier.
The floor is slot-in-name-only: 74.7% of his targets came outside the numbers (MOF 25%), ~20% contested-target rate, 45.7% catch rate vs man, 66% catchable-ball environment — a spike-week profile that posted ≤5.9 PPR in 5 of 16 games (weeks 1, 4, 6, 11, 13). If BTJ rebounds and Meyers holds, this is a 72-target WR5 with PPR-cut dud weeks.

Projection & comps

Bottom-up (full PPR assumed). Team volume from data/team-profiles/JAX.md (2026-07-07): ~65 plays/gm × ~60% pass → ~33 att/gm, ~547–555 team targets over 17 games (2025 actual: 547 REG — nflverse receiving.csv, pulled 2026-07-07).

Scenario	Games	Tgt/gm (TS)	Targets	Rec (catch%)	Yards (Y/T)	TD (xTD-anchored)	PPR pts
Floor (p20)	15	4.8 (~15.5%)	72	45 (62%)	610 (8.5)	4	~135
Median (p50)	16	5.9 (~19%)	95–100	60 (62%)	860 (8.8)	5–6	~185
Ceiling (p80)	16.5	6.9 (~22%)	114	71 (62.5%)	1,010 (8.9)	7	~225

TD anchor: 2025 receiving xTD was 5.5–6.6 vs 5 actual (two bucketing methods, internal model on nflverse pbp, computed 2026-07-07) — his 5 TDs were usage-supported, slightly *under* expectation. Median TD rate carried forward at ~5.8% of targets.
xFP check: usage-based expected receiving PPR on his 2025 target profile = 180.2 (11.26 xPPG) vs 172.7 actual receiving-only (internal model, league-average outcomes by depth×field-zone bucket applied to his 97 pbp targets; computed 2026-07-07). He mildly underperformed his usage — no efficiency-spike overhang to regress.
Floor case: BTJ rebound + Meyers entrenchment + Hunter reclaiming WR snaps squeeze him to a clear #3; ceiling case: he repeats as target leader in a ~550-target offense.
Games risk: medium — missed 1 game in 2025 (hip, Week 14; limited snaps weeks 13–16 — nflverse injuries.csv/snap_counts, pulled 2026-07-07), 14 games played in 2024 (nflverse receiving.csv). 2023 rookie-year availability UNVERIFIED in cached data.
Comps (role/profile sanity checks; stat lines from memory — UNVERIFIED): Christian Kirk 2022 JAX (~84-1108-8, ~229 PPR — the ceiling comp: slot in a pass-lean JAX offense), Khalil Shakir 2024 BUF (~76-821-4, ~187), Jakobi Meyers 2022 NE (~67-804-6, ~176), Josh Downs 2024 IND (~72-803-5, ~182), Tyler Boyd 2021 CIN (~67-828-5, ~176 — slot in a loaded room, the floor-median comp).
External projections: none in data/projections/ (directory absent) — no sanity-check disagreement to report.

Usage profile (2025 REG, 16 games — nflverse weekly/receiving/participation, pulled 2026-07-07)

Metric	Value	Band / read
Target share	17.4% full season (team-high) · 21.3% avg wks 10–18 · 28.2% wks 16–18	Full-season = concern band (<18%), but the late split is the real signal: role changed structurally at Week 7
TPRR	0.251 (95 tgt / 379 on-field NGS-charted dropbacks) · ~0.22 if scaled to all 685 team pass plays · wks 16–18: 0.32	Good, near-elite on proxy; route denominator is a proxy — flagged
Route participation	63.4% full season · 85–95% in healthy starter weeks (7–12, 17–18) · 20–39% wks 1–2/5–6 (rotational) · dips wks 13–16 = hip	Classic high-TPRR + low full-season RP expansion candidate (wr.md §2 buy read) — but the expansion is now consensus, not secret
Air-yards share	24.3%	Mid (below 28% good line); BTJ owns the downfield claim (26.9% in 14 gms)
WOPR	0.431 full · ~0.52 wks 10–18	Below 0.50 full-season; late-season run-rate in good band
RZ target share	18.4% (16 of 87 team RZ targets — pbp, computed 2026-07-07)	Good band, low end
End-zone targets	8 (6 targets inside the 10)	Outside top-24 at position — 35 players (all positions) had more (pbp, 2026-07-07)
xFP	11.26 xPPG receiving (180.2 over 16 gms, internal pbp model, 2026-07-07); provider xFP UNVERIFIED	High-end WR3 band; actual slightly below expected

Target quality / route tree (pbp + participation joins, computed 2026-07-07): aDOT 12.49 — the intermediate sweet spot, unusually deep for a slot. Depth mix: 6 behind LOS / 38 short (0–9) / 28 intermediate (10–19) / 25 deep (20+) — earns at all four depths. Route mix on targets: dig 18, quick out 15, deep out 14, curl 14, post 10, go 10, slant 8 — a full tree, only 2 screens and 7 jet carries (0 yds), i.e. not a manufactured-touch profile. Field zones: MOF share 25.3% (24 middle vs 71 boundary of 95 located targets, pbp pass_location proxy) — boundary share 74.7% sits at the boundary-only caution line (wr.md §3): floor discount applies. Third-down role: 23.7% of JAX third-down targets, 3.1 YPRR on third down — best among WRs with 75+ third-down routes (SI Jaguars, 2026-06-12) — the QB-trust chain that survives bad scripts.

Alignment: slot ~37% pre-bye → ~58% post-bye, up to 75% in some games (Roto Street Journal, 2026-05-27; PlayerProfiler, 2026 offseason); Coen: "The F is the guy that needs to do more of the adjusting, and that's where Parker will be playing" (Nov 2025 via team profile); Coen June 2026: "play inside, play outside, run routes at all three levels" (SI Jaguars, 2026-06-12). Sleeper depth chart: SWR (2026-07-07). Individual motion rate UNVERIFIED (team motion 47.1%).

Coverage splits (participation charting join, computed 2026-07-07): vs man — 106 routes, TPRR 0.330, catch rate 45.7%; vs zone — 273 routes, TPRR 0.227, catch rate 67.7%. He *earns* heavily vs man (scarce trait) but converts vs zone; the man-catch rate reflects depth/contested mix, not drops.

Efficiency (wr.md §6): YPRR 2.23 proxy / ~1.95 scaled (good band, with denominator caveat) — up from 1.07 proxy in 2024; first downs per route 0.098 (good); YAC over expected +1.73/rec 2025, +0.80 2024 (NGS — positive two straight years); drop rate 4.1% (4/97, FTN join); contested: 10-of-19 = 52.6% (good band), but 19.6% of targets were contested — moderate fragility. QB-vs-WR separation: catchable-ball rate on his targets was only 66% (FTN); he caught 58 of 64 catchable balls (90.6%) — the low raw catch rate (61.1%) is target-mix/QB-driven, not hands. NGS avg separation 2.39 yds at 12.6 avg intended air yards (2025).

Pedigree (prospect-pedigree.md): 2023 R6, pick 185 (nflverse rosters, pulled 2026-07-07) — day-3 capital, but the decay rule applies in year 4: believe the NFL usage record, which is now real. Age 24 (b. 2002-03-21), Penn State, 5'10" 204 (Sleeper, 2026-07-07). Contract year (rookie deal expires after 2026). Archetype: slot-volume with a three-level tree — sturdier than a manufactured-touch slot, but without alpha-X air-yard claims.

Context (from `data/team-profiles/JAX.md`, 2026-07-07)

Continuity: Coen calls plays in year 2 (confirmed), Lawrence in year 2 of the system off a career year, 5 OL bodies return (4 same spot, PBWR 9th). Team profile stability: medium.
Volume: 66.2 plays/gm and 6th in PROE in 2025; projected ~65 plays × ~60% pass = ~33 att/gm. Elite environment for target value.
Vacated: 113 targets (Etienne 52, Brown 37, Patrick 24) — ~21% of team targets — with only two R6 WRs and a blocking TE added. Genuine green flag.
Competition: BTJ healthy (wrist/shoulder/ankle in 2025) and the offseason program's standout (SI Jaguars minicamp reports, June 2026); Meyers extended 3-yr/$60M ($40M gtd) and was the team's highest per-game target earner (6.8/gm); Strange 5.0 tgt/gm; Hunter moving to "full-time CB, part-time WR" (NFL.com/Gladstone + Schefter via Newsweek, June–July 2026) — frees the WR3+ snaps Washington needed in September 2025.
Scheme fit: McVay-tree, 47.1% motion, slot-friendly, YAC-schemed — but Coen's 2025 target tree was flat (WR1 TS 17.4%, five players between 45–95 targets). The offense raises everyone's floor and caps everyone's ceiling.
QB contingency: Mullens (tier B) — Washington's short/intermediate trust role holds better than BTJ's deep tree if Lawrence misses time.

Tripwires (void this eval / re-run)

Hunter reversal: camp/preseason reports of Travis Hunter logging heavy first-team WR snaps (contradicting the June 2026 CB-emphasis plan) → re-run; floor drops.
Rotation reports: beat reporting or preseason usage showing Washington sub-80% route participation or Meyers taking the slot back → void, verdict pressure toward FADE.
ADP movement: falls past ~90 (round 8) → flips to TARGET; rises inside ~55 (round 5) → flips to FADE.
Health: hip/soft-tissue recurrence in camp (he was limited weeks 13–16, missed week 14 in 2025) → re-run games risk.
Roster move: JAX signs/trades for a veteran slot WR before Week 1 → void.

Sources

data/stats/2025/ + data/stats/2024/: receiving.csv, weekly.csv, ngs_receiving.csv, snap_counts.csv, participation.csv, ftn_charting.csv, injuries.csv, rosters.csv, pbp_summary.csv — nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07. RP/TPRR/YPRR computed from participation on-field share of NGS-charted dropbacks (proxy — flagged), 2026-07-07.
nflverse pbp 2025 (live pull via nflreadpy, 2026-07-07): RZ/end-zone targets, depth mix, pass-location (MOF/boundary proxy), xTD and xFP internal models, man/zone target joins.
data/team-profiles/JAX.md (built 2026-07-07): play-caller, PROE, volume, OL, vacated targets, hierarchy, win total (BetMGM 9.5, 2026-05-20).
data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv: 74.7 overall, WR36 (FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07).
data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json: age 24, Penn State, years_exp 3, SWR depth slot, no injury status (2026-07-07).
SI Jaguars — coaches trust Washington, minicamp (2026-06-12): Coen quotes, third-down splits (23.7% 3rd-down TS, 3.1 3rd-down YPRR).
Roto Street Journal — Parker Washington outlook (2026-05-27) + PlayerProfiler: slot rate 37% pre-bye → 58% post-bye (up to 75%); market bull case.
NFL.com — Gladstone: Hunter uptick in CB usage + NFL.com — could flip to full-time CB + Newsweek/Schefter (June–July 2026): Hunter 2026 role.
SI Jaguars — BTJ minicamp leap + jaguars.com OTAs — BTJ (June 2026): BTJ health/rebound (target-competition input).
Sibling evals (2026-07-07): evaluations/players/2026/brian-thomas-jr.md (TARGET @ 84.3), evaluations/players/2026/jakobi-meyers.md (TARGET @ 98.5) — room-consistency check.
UNVERIFIED: provider xFP (Fantasy Points/PlayerProfiler paywalled), individual motion rate, 2023 rookie-year games played, comp-season stat lines (from memory).