Don't Look at My Team

Brenton Strange (TE, JAX) — 2026 evaluation

Verdict

TARGET (medium confidence) at ADP 152.6 / TE17 (FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07). Strange is a punt-tier price on a profile whose median outcome is already TE10–12 and whose 80th-percentile path is TE5–7. Why the market is wrong: it is pricing the injury-diluted full-season box score (12 games, TE18 in PPG, ~TE23 in total points) instead of the weeks 12–18 role — ~78% route participation, team-leading 11 red-zone targets, 11.1 PPR PPG (TE8 in half-PPR over that span) — a role the Jaguars then ratified with a 3-yr/$48M extension (June 25, 2026) *after* drafting a blocking TE2 whom Coen explicitly framed as a way to take blocking wear off Strange and align him against linebackers and safeties. Ceiling is capped by a spread-the-ball offense (no Coen pass-catcher cleared a 17.4% target share in 2025) and a fourth-in-hierarchy pecking order, which is why this is TARGET, not MUST-HAVE.

Bull case

The team just told you the plan: 3-yr/$48M extension (June 25, 2026 — top-10 TE money) signed *after* spending R2 #56 on a blocking TE2 whom Coen publicly framed (6/15/26) as the way to detach Strange onto LBs/safeties — "now he's an advantage for us." Route/alignment expansion is coached-in, not projected-in.
The late-2025 sample is a TE1 role: from IR return (wks 12–18): ~78% RP, 5.1 tgt/gm, team-leading 11 RZ targets, 11.1 PPR PPG — sustained 7 games in the same scheme, same QB, same play-caller, all of which return. Per te.md, a persisting late-season role split outweighs the full-season line the market is pricing.
TD upside is usage-backed, not luck-backed: 3 TDs on zero early-season RZ work undersells a late-season RZ-target-leader role; xTD ~5 with room to 7+ if the RZ share holds — on a top-third offense whose 9 goal-line rush TDs from Lawrence's legs are the main historical leak.

Bear case

Fourth in the target pecking order in a deliberately flat target tree — Coen's 2025 team-high TS was 17.4%; Strange's realistic TS band is 15–18%, which on ~33 att/gm math means his median is ~10.5 PPG — roughly the streamer baseline. You may be rostering a nicer-looking version of replacement level.
The detached-role thesis is currently unverified vibes: 2025 slot/wide rate is UNVERIFIED, the "more positions" evidence is June quotes, and a R2 TE plus a R5 TE were still added to his room — if camp shows Boerkircher/Koziol running routes with the 1s rather than blocking, the entire routes-growth lever inverts into a §10 red flag ("team drafted a TE rounds 1–3").
Body-of-work and durability doubts: a hip/quad ligament tear cost him 5 games in 2025; his career-best season is still just 46-540-3, YAC over expected is negative (−0.23), aDOT 6.9 — a short-area profile with no proven 100-target season, where a TD dry spell makes him droppable by October.

Projection & comps

Bottom-up, per-game basis: ~37 team dropbacks/gm (team profile: 33.1 att + sacks/scrambles, 2025 actuals).

Scenario	Games	RP	Routes	TPRR	Targets	Rec (77%)	Yds (9.0/tgt)	TD	PPR pts	PPG
Floor (p20)	12	74%	~330	0.165	54	41	470	2–3	~105	8.8
Median (p50)	16	78%	~460	0.18	83	64	745	5	~168	10.6
Ceiling (p80)	17	82%	~515	0.19 + YPRR uptick	95	73	870	7	~205	12.1

TD anchor: 11 RZ targets in his final 7 games (team-leading over that span — RotoBaller, 2026) is a ~1.5/gm pace → 15–18 RZ targets full-season → xTD ~5. The 3 actual TDs in 2025 *undershot* the late-season RZ usage (0 RZ targets weeks 1–5, all 11 after return), so the TD projection is usage-supported, not a spike being extrapolated. Games risk: medium — 2025 hip/quad ligament tear (no surgery, 5 games on IR); durable in 2023–24 otherwise.

Comps (role/profile): Cole Kmet 2023 (73-719-6, ~16% TS inline-plus Y — median), Hunter Henry 2025 (87 tgt, 10.5 PPG reliable outlet in a spread offense — median), Pat Freiermuth 2021 (RZ-driven line on modest yardage — floor-median), Jake Ferguson 2023 (71-761-5, good-offense Y — ceiling), Tucker Kraft 2024→2025 (blocking-plus Y whose detached usage expanded into a TE4-PPG year — the bull-path comp).

External projections: none in data/projections/ (directory absent). Footballguys panel (2026): TE10 median, "range of 6th to 18th" — consistent with this range.

Usage profile (te.md §2 table)

2025 = 12 games (missed wks 6–11, hip IR). Routes are a charted-play proxy from participation.csv (pass-block snaps not separable — noted per metric).

Metric	2025	2024	Band / read
Route participation	77.1% (320 routes-proxy / 415 charted team dropbacks in his games; wks 12–18 ≈ 78%, peak 88–93% early)	51.7% (behind Evan Engram; ≥67–89% in Engram-out weeks)	Good, near-elite — gate passes. 2024→2025 jump is role-driven (Engram gone), believable immediately
TPRR	~0.175–0.188 (60 tgt / 320-proxy = 0.188; scaled to ~342 true routes = 0.175)	~0.178 (53/298 proxy)	Good band, borderline — two-season consistency; earning rate is real but not elite. Slightly under the 0.20 "expansion candidate" bar
YPRR	1.58 (PFF via web, 2026-07-07; my scaled calc matches: 540/342 = 1.58)	~1.3–1.38 (proxy)	Good band (1.4–1.8)
Target share (games played)	~16% (PFF: 16%, 21st among TEs; my weekly-weighted calc: 60/~380 = 15.8%. Full-season 10.97% in receiving.csv is diluted by 5 missed games)	10.2% (part-time role)	Good band floor (16–21%)
RZ target share	11 RZ targets wks 12–18, led team over that span; 0 in wks 1–5 (RotoBaller, 2026). Season share UNVERIFIED	UNVERIFIED	Late-season split is the signal (te.md §2 reading rule): post-injury role change persisted 7 straight games
End-zone targets	UNVERIFIED	UNVERIFIED	—
Detached rate (slot/wide)	UNVERIFIED for 2025 (no alignment export in `data/raw/`)	UNVERIFIED	2026 direction is documented: Strange at June minicamp — "a lot more positions… I want that"; Coen (6/15/26) plans to align him on LBs/safeties with Boerkircher absorbing edge blocking
xFP	UNVERIFIED (no provider xFP export). Actual: 9.83 PPG (TE18 among 8+ gm TEs); wks 12–18: 11.09 PPG (weekly.csv calc, would rank ~TE9)	6.5 PPG (91.1 pts/14 gm)	Usage-based anchor: mid-TE1 range late-season
aDOT / separation / YAC	6.6–6.9 aDOT (NGS 6.58; PFF 6.9, 36th); separation 3.91; catch 76.7%; YAC/rec 5.4, xYAC delta −0.23 (NGS, 2026-07-07)	—	Short-area, high-catch-rate MOF profile — stable floor, TD-dependent ceiling

2×2 read: RP 65–80% + TPRR ≈0.18 puts him a hair below the textbook "expansion candidate (buy)" quadrant — routes are the growth lever, and the team is engineering exactly that. Not a decoy, not a checkdown-only outlet: PFF graded him 77.6 overall, 7th of 37 qualified TEs (2026-07-07), and 9 receptions of 20+ yds ranked 5th among AFC TEs (SI, June 2026).

Archetype (§8): Receiving Y — inline-capable, elite blocker, PA-seam/leak profile in a McVay-tree scheme — with a stated 2026 migration toward move/big-slot usage. Scheme-dependent; Coen continuity (year 2) protects it.

Breakout screen (§9): 2023 R2 (#61, rosters.csv) · age 25 (Sleeper, 2026-07-07) — entering peak window · burst 86th pctile, speed score 74th pctile, athleticism #11 of 30 TEs (PlayerProfiler, 2026-07-07) · RP 51.7% → 77.1% year-over-year with routes still growable. This is the classic year-3 breakout pattern, interrupted mid-breakout by injury and rolled into year 4 — functionally the "post-hype" TARGET screen: the ADP crashed (TE17) exactly when the usage turned on. Weak spot in the screen: 14.5% college dominator (below the 15% line) — the pedigree is capital + athleticism, not college dominance.

Context (data/team-profiles/JAX.md, 2026-07-07)

Offense quality: 13-4 in 2025, win total 9.5 (BetMGM, 2026-05-20), 66.2 plays/gm, 6th in PROE — a top-third offense with continuity (Coen year 2, same OL, Lawrence extended). No bottom-8 cap; TEs need this and he has it.
QB: Lawrence career-best 2025 under Coen; demonstrated short-area trust in Strange (77% catch rate, ≥3 catches in all but two games).
PA rate: ~22% of pass plays — mid band (below the ≥25% boost line). Neutral.
12-personnel: ~15% in 2025, expected to rise with two drafted TEs; "more multi-TE looks in 2026" (SI, Apr–May 2026). Critical detail: in 2025 Strange was on the field for 67 of 93 2-TE dropbacks (72%) — multi-TE growth adds his snaps and shifts his assignment from blocking to routes if Coen's stated plan holds. TE2 route counts in 2025 were trivial (Mundt 160 over 16 games, ~28% RP), and Boerkircher (R2 #56) is consistently reported as a blocker year 1 (SI, Apr 2026).
OL: 9th in PBWR — less structural need for TE chip help; the staff additionally bought a blocking TE to do that job.
Target competition (§6): the honest negative. Hierarchy: BTJ → Meyers → Washington → Strange (4th); elite TE seasons come from top-2. 113 vacated targets (~21%) from Brown/Patrick/Etienne exits, and no high-capital pass-catching arrival — the R2 pick blocks and Travis Hunter's offense snaps are contested (GM signaled CB emphasis, June 2026). Coen spreads it: 2025 team-high TS was 17.4% — floor-friendly, ceiling-hostile.

Scarcity-tier placement (te.md §7)

Punt tier, correctly — and priced below his own median. Streamer baseline: 2025 TE12 PPG = 10.58 (Juwan Johnson, weekly-derived, min 8 gms) + 0.5–1.0 streaming bump ≈ 11.1–11.6 PPG. Strange's median (~10.6 PPG) is baseline-flat; his ceiling (~12.1 PPG) is +1 to +2.5 over baseline. That is the definition of the punt tier ("one elite trait or a role bet — last-2-rounds picks; hold two, stream, upgrade in-season"), and at 152.6 (round 13 of 12-team) that's exactly what he costs. He is not a dead-zone trap (no round-5–8 price to defend) and not pay-up-worthy (no ≥13 PPG path without a target-tree consolidation). No TE premium (assumed) keeps him in this tier; a +0.5/rec premium would add ~2 PPG to a 64-catch season and promote him to a clear mid-tier value — re-run if scoring confirms a premium.

Portfolio action: draft him as TE1a in the punt build (rounds 12–14), pair with a second late TE or stream, and treat the weeks-12+ role continuing into September as the hold/upgrade signal.

Tripwires (void this eval; re-run)

Boerkircher or Koziol running routes with the 1s in camp/preseason, or Strange's preseason RP < 70% — the routes-growth thesis inverts.
Camp alignment reports keep him inline/blocking (no slot/wing usage) despite the June quotes — ceiling reverts to 2025 median.
Hip/soft-tissue recurrence at any point in camp — floor scenario becomes the base case.
Travis Hunter commits primarily to offense or JAX adds a veteran slot WR — MOF target competition rises; median TS band drops.
ADP rises inside ~pick 120 / TE12 — the punt-price edge is gone; verdict decays toward HOLD.

Sources

data/stats/2025/receiving.csv, weekly.csv, snap_counts.csv, ngs_receiving.csv, injuries.csv, participation.csv, rosters.csv, pbp_summary.csv; data/stats/2024/ same tables — nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07. RP/routes/2TE/man-zone figures computed from play-level participation.csv (charted-play proxy; pass-block snaps not separable), 2026-07-07.
data/team-profiles/JAX.md — built 2026-07-07 (Coen scheme, hierarchy, vacated targets, OL, win total).
data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json — age 25, DOB 2000-12-27, Penn State, yrs_exp 3.
data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv — ADP 152.6, TE17 (FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07).
PFF via web search (2026-07-07): 1.58 YPRR, 16% TS (21st), aDOT 6.9 (36th), 77.6 grade (7th/37 TEs), 3 drops.
SI Jaguars — extension grade article: 3-yr/$48M (June 25, 2026); 9 rec of 20+ yds 5th among AFC TEs; "new-look TE room" OTA coverage (Apr–June 2026).
A to Z Sports — Coen OTA presser (June 15, 2026): Boerkircher freeing Strange onto LBs/safeties.
Jaguars.com minicamp coverage (June 2026): Strange "a lot more positions" quote.
RotoBaller 2026 outlook: 0 RZ targets wks 1–5; 11 RZ targets wk 12 on (team-leading); half-PPR TE8 from wk 12.
Footballguys 2026 ("Is He a TE to Target?"): panel range TE6–TE18, median ~TE10.
PlayerProfiler (fetched 2026-07-07): athletic profile (burst 86th pctile, speed score 74th pctile, athleticism #11/30), college dominator 14.5%, draft pick 2.30.
PFN / Big Cat Country / Yahoo (Oct–Nov 2025 via web, 2026-07-07): hip/quad ligament tear, no surgery, IR wks 6–11, activated for wk 12.
UNVERIFIED: 2025 detached (slot/wide) rate, end-zone target count, season RZ target share, provider xFP, pass-block snap rate.