Jacksonville Jaguars

JAX — team profile

Built per methodology/team-context.md. Every number needs a source + as-of date or the UNVERIFIED mark. Position evals cite this file; they do not re-research it.

2025 context: Jaguars went 13-4, won the AFC South in HC Liam Coen's first year, and lost the Wild Card game 27-24 to Buffalo (jaguars.com game report, Jan 2026; Wikipedia 2025 Jaguars season). The entire coaching core returns for 2026. The offseason story is skill-position turnover, not coaching: RB Travis Etienne (260 carries) left in free agency, WR3/4 depth (Dyami Brown, Tim Patrick) walked, and the team doubled up at TE in the draft.

Play-caller

• Calls plays: Liam Coen (HC) — confirmed: Coen called plays in 2025 and retains them in 2026; OC Grant Udinski said publicly, "Play-calling won't be a part of my role. I'm looking forward to supporting and helping the team win any way I can" (jaguars.com, 2026 offseason; SI Jaguars coverage, 2026). Udinski returns as OC for year 2 (jaguars.com, "Campanile and Udinski Return," Jan 2026).
• Tenure with team: Year 2 (hired 2025-01-24 — jaguars.com/Wikipedia) · Prior relationship with QB1: Year 2 with Lawrence, who had a career-best 2025 under Coen (4,007 yds / 29 TD / 12 INT / 9 rush TD — nflverse passing.csv, pulled 2026-07-07)

Last 3 play-calling stops (skip non-calling years — at the Rams 2022/2024 McVay called plays; Kentucky 2021/2022 was college):

Read: Coen is a McVay-tree caller who runs a high-volume (66.2 plays/gm, 2025), pass-tilted (6th in PROE) offense with neutral-band motion (47.1%) and PA (~22%), but he spreads targets — his 2025 WR1 target share was just 17.4% and his RB target share (14.3%) was low-band, with Lawrence's legs (82 carries, 9 rush TD) eating check-down and red-zone value. Roster adjustment for 2026: same QB, same OL, same top-4 pass-catchers — expect continuity, with the R2 TE pick (Boerkircher) nudging 12-personnel up from 15% and Travis Hunter's offense snaps the swing variable behind the top three WRs. No install drag: year 2 in the same system.

QB situation

• QB1: Trevor Lawrence — 5-yr/$275M extension signed June 2024, runs through 2030 (Spotrac); benching risk: none after a career-best 13-4 season
• Backup: Nick Mullens — tier B: experienced journeyman who keeps the pass game functional but turnover-prone; has the "clear edge" for QB2 given system familiarity (SI/Big Cat Country roster projections, May–June 2026)
• Contingency line: If Lawrence misses time: Mullens, tier B — expect ~3–5 pt pass-rate hold-to-slight-cut, lower aDOT, more screens/checkdowns; BTJ's deep-ball dependency hurts most, Washington/Strange short-game roles hold; the 9 rush TDs from the QB position vanish, pushing goal-line equity to the RBs.

O-line

• Projected starters LT–RT (SI post-draft Week 1 projection, 2026): LT Cole Van Lanen (INJURY FLAG — knee, missed the Wild Card game; extended 3-yr/$54M late 2025 per Black and Teal, June 2026), LG Ezra Cleveland, C Robert Hainsey, RG Patrick Mekari, RT Anton Harrison. Depth: Walker Little (benched at LT in 2025, retained as swing insurance — Black and Teal, June 2026), Wyatt Milum pushing at guard, R3#88 IOL Emmanuel Pregnon (jaguars.com draft class, Apr 2026).
• Interior vs edge: interior (Cleveland–Hainsey–Mekari) is the veteran, continuous strength — no rookie interior starters projected. Edge is the watch point: Van Lanen is a converted guard coming off a knee injury at LT; if he misses time, Little (benched 2025) steps in — a downgrade that would compress the offense toward the quick game. Overall a top-third pass-pro unit that supports deep-aDOT profiles (BTJ).

Scheme family

• Run scheme: wide/outside-zone base (McVay tree) with gap/duo mixed — RB fits: Tuten's one-cut burst is the scheme fit; Rodriguez is the downhill/short-yardage hammer for the duo looks; Allen is the passing-down back (Bucs Nation scheme profile, Feb 2024; role reporting via Black and Teal/A to Z Sports, June 2026).
• Pass-game family: Shanahan/McVay tree — outside zone married to PA, neutral-band motion (47.1% in 2025). Implications: YAC and intermediate in-breakers schemed; slot (Washington) gets designed touches; mid aDOT overall with BTJ as the boundary vertical element; but this caller spreads it — no 26%+ target-share alpha in his 2025 sample.

Target/touch hierarchy & vacated math

Departed (2025 targets / carries — nflverse receiving.csv & rushing.csv, pulled 2026-07-07):

• RB Travis Etienne — 52 tgt / 260 car (signed NO, 4-yr/$48M — Black and Teal FA tracker, Mar 2026)
• WR Dyami Brown — 37 tgt / 6 car (signed WAS, 1-yr/$1.75M — Spotrac, 2026)
• WR Tim Patrick — 24 tgt / 0 car (signed NYJ — NFL.com departures tracker, 2026)

Vacated targets: 113 (~21% of 547 team targets) · Vacated carries: 266

Arrivals (claim):

• RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. — 2-yr/$10M, $6.2M gtd (ESPN FA tracker, Mar 2026); played under Coen at Kentucky; missed most of offseason program (Black and Teal, June 2026)
• TE Nate Boerkircher — R2#56 (jaguars.com draft class, Apr 2026); projected TE2, strong in-line blocker
• TE Tanner Koziol — R5#164; WR Josh Cameron — R6#191; WR C.J. Williams — R6#203 (jaguars.com draft class, Apr 2026)
• RB Ameer Abdullah — vet depth (jaguars.com roster, June 2026; terms UNVERIFIED)
• Retained claims: WR Jakobi Meyers extended 3-yr/$60M, $40M gtd in Dec 2025 (ESPN); restructured Feb 2026 (NFLTradeRumors)

Projected pecking order (state it even if contested — mark contested):

RB committee split: Early-down: Bhayshul Tuten — RB1 per June reporting ("top dog," enters Week 1 as RB1 — Black and Teal/A to Z Sports/jaguars.com OTA coverage, June 2026), CONTESTED with Rodriguez, whom SI's post-draft projection had starting; Passing-down: LeQuint Allen (third-down/two-minute per blocking — Black and Teal, June 2026); Goal-line/short-yardage: Chris Rodriguez Jr. (CONTESTED — Tuten scored 5 rush TD in 2025 and won't cede all of it). 266 vacated carries with only a $5M/yr vet added = Tuten is the presumptive volume winner.

Game environment

• Vegas win total: 9.5 (BetMGM, over +120 / under −145, as-of 2026-05-20) → script lean: positive (borderline — the juiced under and Kalshi's implied 8.6 wins say the market expects regression from 13-4)
• Projected plays/game: ~65 (2025: 66.2, top-tier — nflverse pbp_summary; year-2 continuity, trimmed slightly for schedule/regression) · Projected pass rate: ~60% (2025 raw 60.9%, 6th in PROE; positive script lean trims marginally)
• Projected pass attempts/game: ~33 · rush attempts/game: ~26 (inputs: 65 plays × 60% pass = 39 dropbacks, minus ~2.4 sacks/gm and ~3.5 Lawrence scrambles/gm ≈ 33 attempts — matches 2025 actuals of 33.1 att and 25.9 rushes/gm, nflverse pbp_summary/passing.csv)

Defensive identity

Per methodology §8 — consumed by DST evals (dst.md §3) and /weekly-edge coverage-matchup reads (in-season.md §2).

• Runs the defense: Anthony Campanile (DC) — confirmed returning for 2026 (jaguars.com, "Coen, Lawrence on Positives of Campanile and Udinski Return," Jan 2026)
• Tenure with team: Year 2 (hired Feb 2025; 2025 was his first NFL DC job) · New DC: no (dc_new: false) — 2025 scheme stats are valid
• Front/scheme family: hybrid/odd — Fangio-style structure blended with Flores-style simulated pressures ("Blending Fangio Structure with Flores Chaos" — Match Quarters, 2025); week-to-week coverage disguise is the identity

2025 results context: 19.8 PPG allowed, −0.080 EPA/play allowed (nflverse def_summary); franchise records in takeaways (31), INT (22), passes defensed (107), rush yds/gm allowed (85.6), +13 TO differential (jaguars.com/SI, Jan 2026).

• Key defensive arrivals/departures (edge and CB1 first):
• Edge: no change — Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker both return (Walker kicks inside on passing downs with Dennis Gardeck outside; Gardeck re-signed 2-yr — ESPN FA tracker, Mar 2026). R7 EDGE Zach Durfee is depth only.
• CB: net loss/reshuffle — Greg Newsome II departed (NYG, 1-yr/$8M — Black and Teal tracker, Mar 2026); Montaric Brown re-signed 3-yr/$33M as the starting outside CB (team-high 12 PD in 2025 — ESPN FA tracker, Mar 2026); Travis Hunter shifts toward more CB snaps in 2026 (GM Gladstone, June 2026); Jourdan Lewis returns in the slot; R3#100 CB Jalen Huskey is depth.
• Off-ball/S (minor fantasy weight): LB Devin Lloyd departed (CAR, 3-yr/$45M), S Andrew Wingard departed (ARI) — Lloyd was a takeaway engine, a real subtraction from the INT profile.
• Shadow-CB tendency: unknown — no established traveling CB1 in 2025 charting write-ups; Hunter's 2026 usage is the open question.

Read: a zone-leaning, disguise-heavy Fangio/Flores hybrid that manufactured pressure by scheme (27.9% blitz, 23.8% pressure) but converted poorly (4.53% sack rate) and lived on elite takeaway production — 31 takeaways is the classic regression candidate (dst.md §2), and losing Lloyd (INTs) plus Newsome thins the ball-production infrastructure even with the edge room intact. Continuity green flag: same DC year 2 with the front seven core returning.

Stability & change log

• Stability: medium — per methodology §10: same play-caller entering year 2, same QB1, 5 returning OL bodies (4 same spot) all point high, but the RB1 job behind 266 vacated carries is a genuinely contested top-of-depth-chart battle (Tuten vs. Rodriguez, with June reporting and SI's post-draft projection disagreeing), and the WR order behind BTJ is contested. One unresolved top-of-depth-chart battle = medium.
• Watch items: (1) RB1 camp battle — Tuten vs. Rodriguez carry split and goal-line role; (2) Travis Hunter's offense/defense snap allocation (GM signaled CB emphasis — his WR snaps gate Meyers/Washington volume); (3) Van Lanen's knee at LT (Little is the fallback — a downgrade); (4) Meyers/Washington slot-boundary rotation in camp reporting; (5) takeaway regression risk for DST pricing; (6) win total movement off 9.5.