CIN
TB
@HOU
@PIT
JAX
@MIA
@BAL
TEN
@ATL
@WAS
NO
@CLE
KC
@CAR
@INDJoe Burrow — QB, CIN — 2026
Verdict
FADE at ADP 47.6 (QB2, FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07), high confidence. The market's case is fair and mostly true: Burrow was the QB2 by average points in 2024 (43 TD, league-best 4,918 yards — CBS Sports 2026 outlook), returned from turf-toe surgery to finish 2025 as fantasy's QB5 in PPG from Week 13 on (RotoWire, fetched 2026-07-07), posted the best turnover-worthy-play rate PFF has ever recorded (0.7%), and returns to a fully intact elite environment — same caller (8th year), Chase + Higgins, all five OL starters back, 9.5 win total. Why the market is wrong: at pick 47.6 in a 1QB/4pt league it is paying a 16-healthy-game price for a QB who has averaged 12.8 games per season across six years (three season-wrecking injuries: ACL 2020, wrist 2023, toe 2025 — nflverse cache; NFL.com), whose profile has zero rushing floor (5.1 rush yds/g in 2025, ~0 designed runs) — the one edge this format actually pays for — and whose price sits *ahead* of Lamar Jackson (53.0, QB1-overall upside, system TARGET) and three rounds ahead of Jayden Daniels (86.6). FADE is about price, not the player: at a round-plus discount (pick ~60+, where Underdog's QB3/65.2 already prices him — FantasyPros via web, 2026-07-07), he's a HOLD/TARGET.
Bull case
- Best per-game pocket production in football when on the field: QB2 by average points in 2024 (21.9 PPG, 4pt — nflverse cache), QB5 PPG from his Week 13 return (RotoWire), with back-to-back 300-yard, 6:0 TD games in Weeks 16–17 straight off toe surgery — the environment (Chase/Higgins/PROE) makes 4,900-yard, 40-TD ceilings a live outcome, and his ceiling (375) matches Lamar's.
- The efficiency is real and unlucky at the margins: historic 0.7% TWP against 5 actual INTs (INT-luck buy signal), +2 to +4.5 CPOE every season, elite deep-ball quality — there is no efficiency regression case, only a TD-rate one.
- Highest-continuity situation of any elite QB: 8th-year caller, ~93% of targets returning, all 5 OL starters back, 9.5 wins — if you believe any 2025 efficiency carryover anywhere in the league, you believe it here (qb.md §4 continuity check passes cleanly).
Bear case
- You are drafting the position's worst availability record at its second-highest price: 12.8 games/season career average, three season-wrecking injuries in six years, 16 games missed since 2023 — and in 1QB the dead weeks are pure loss, because his backup on your roster is replacement level and pick 47.6 spent here isn't buying the Tee Higgins-tier WR or mid-RB1 available at that slot.
- Zero rushing floor in the max-Konami format: 5.1 rush yds/g, no designed runs, sneak-only TD access — in 4pt scoring his 6.6% TD rate must *hold at his career maximum for a third straight year* for the median to beat what Lamar (pick 53), Dak (58.8), or Daniels (86.6) return at a discount; anchor it to 5.7% and he's a ~20 PPG QB — roughly +2 PPG over the free QBs going in rounds 8–9 (Goff 90.1, Purdy 96.3, Stafford 100.9).
- The TD rate is the price: back-to-back 6.6% seasons are his career max and top-of-league; every prior time he was below 6% (2022, 2023) the same environment produced QB6–8 PPG value, not QB2 — the market is paying for the spike to repeat, which is the literal FADE definition in qb.md §13.
Projection & comps
Bottom-up, two components, PPR/4pt (assumed). Team inputs from data/team-profiles/CIN.md (built 2026-07-07): ~63.5 plays/g, ~63% pass rate, ~37 team pass att/g, PROE +4.3% (Draft Sharks), positive script (win total 9.5, DK via SI/CBS, May–Jun 2026).
| Scenario | Games | Pass | Rush | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Floor (p20) | 11 (incl. partials) | 390 att, 2,810 yds (7.2 YPA), 20 TD, 7 INT | ~85 yds, 1 TD | ~195 |
| Median (p50) | 15 | 555 att (37/g), 4,105 yds (7.4 YPA), 32 TD (5.7% regressed rate), 9 INT | 33 car, 125 yds, 1.5 TD | ~300 (20.0/g) |
| Ceiling (p80) | 17 | 654 att, 4,940 yds (7.55 YPA), 41 TD, 9 INT | 180 yds, 2 TD | ~375 |
- Pass TDs anchored to a regressed ~5.7% rate, not the 6.6% he posted in both 2024 and 2025 (nflverse cache). No provider passing-xTD obtainable this run (
UNVERIFIED), so the anchor is rate regression tempered upward for a real green-zone pass tilt (green-zone PROE 7th with Burrow back — NBC Sports via team profile) and the Chase/Higgins environment. Career rates: 6.5% (2021), 5.8% (2022), 4.1% (2023), 6.6% (2024), 6.6% (2025) — two straight years at his career max is the textbook "price pays for a TD-rate spike" input (qb.md §13). - INTs from TWP, not the ledger: 0.7% TWP 2025 (PFF — lowest qualifying rate ever recorded, 18 BTT vs 2 TWP); 2.3% INT-worthy proxy 2024 (15 IW on 652 att — FTN charting joined to CIN possessions, derived from cache). 2025's 5 INTs on 2 TWPs means he was *unlucky* — mild green flag; ~1.6% projected.
- Rushing projected separately and it is near-zero: 2.5 car/11.8 yds per game (2024) → 1.75 car/5.1 yds (2025, age 29, post-toe). Rush TDs anchored to a sneak-only role (~1.5 median; 8 team QB sneaks in his 2024 weeks, 6 in his 2025 weeks — FTN derived; inside-5 carry counts
UNVERIFIED). There is no Konami component to age or to lose — and none to pay for. - Games risk: high — 10/16/16/10/17/8 games by season (2020–25); missed 16 games since the start of 2023 (CBS Sports, fetched 2026-07-07). Median uses 15 games — above his career average, credit for non-recurring injury types (framework §4: recurrence matters more than count; ACL/wrist/toe are unrelated) and a fully healthy June (bengals.com, Jun 2026).
- xFP: provider value
UNVERIFIED; derived read = top-3 pass volume × elite efficiency − zero rush ≈ QB5–9 expected-PPG band in 4pt.
Comps (4pt scoring, lines from nflverse/PFR): Jared Goff 2024 (17g, 4,629-37-12, ~318) ≈ the median shape; Burrow 2022 (16g, 4,475-35 + 257/5 rush, ~355) ≈ ceiling-side; Justin Herbert 2021 (17g, 5,014-38 + 302/3, ~383) ≈ ceiling; Tua Tagovailoa 2023 (17g, 4,624-29, ~285) ≈ floor-side full season; Burrow 2023 (10g, ~186) ≈ the lived floor.
Usage profile (opportunity core, qb.md §2)
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | Band | Source (as-of) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rush att/g | 2.5 (42/17) | 1.75 (14/8) | Concern (<2.5) | nflverse cache (2026-07-07) |
| Designed rush rate | ~0.6% (sneaks only) | ~0.7% (sneaks only) | Concern (<2%) | FTN charting joined to CIN possessions, derived |
| Scramble rate | ~4% derived (~30 non-sneak carries / ~730 db) | lower (12 carries incl. sneaks, 6 full g) | low-Good | derived from cache; exact split UNVERIFIED |
| Rush yds/g | 11.8 | 5.1 | Concern (<10 in 2025) | nflverse cache |
| RZ rush share / inside-5 carries | UNVERIFIED — low inferred (Chase Brown goal-line role) | UNVERIFIED | Concern | team profile |
| Rushing xTD | UNVERIFIED — anchor ~1.5 | UNVERIFIED | Concern | derived (sneak role) |
| Dropbacks/g | ~43 (652 att + 48 sk + scr) | ~40 (Wks 13–18) | Elite (≥38) | derived from cache |
| Pass att/g | 38.4 | 37.2 (Wks 13–18 full games) | Elite (≥35) | nflverse cache |
| Team PROE | +2.9% (1st in NFL) | +4.3% (Draft Sharks; nfelo +1.7%, model differs) | Elite | team profile (2026-07-07) |
| xFP | UNVERIFIED | UNVERIFIED (19.8 actual PPG Wks 13–18; QB5 PPG post-return) | QB1 fringe actual | cache; RotoWire (2026-07-07) |
Read: the most extreme volume-passer split in the QB pool — elite on every passing-volume row, Concern on every rushing row. Per qb.md §1, a QB eval is a rushing forecast plus a dropback forecast: Burrow's rushing forecast is ~10 points a season. In this format his entire value must come through the 0.04/yd + 4pt-TD pipe, which means he needs ~2,250 pass yards just to replicate what 600 rush yards gives a Konami QB, at identical price.
Efficiency & talent signal (qb.md §5)
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | Band | Source (as-of) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPA per (att+sack) | +0.164 (115.1 EPA/700) | +0.133 (36.6/276, incl. 2 partial games) | Good→near-Elite | derived from nflverse weekly cache (2026-07-07) |
| CPOE (NGS) | +4.52 | +2.06 | Elite→Good | ngs_passing cache |
| TWP rate | ~2.3% (IW proxy: 15/652) | 0.7% (PFF — best ever recorded, min 250 db) | Elite | FTN derived; PFF (fetched 2026-07-07) |
| INT ledger vs TWP | 9 INT vs 15 IW (slightly lucky) | 5 INT vs 2 TWP (unlucky — mild buy signal) | neutral-positive | derived; PFF |
| Pressure-to-sack | 17.4% (career best) | UNVERIFIED | Good (14–20%) | Goodberry/PFF via X (2024-11) |
| Sack rate | 6.9% (48 sacks) | 6.2% (17) | mid | nflverse cache |
| aDOT (NGS intended air yds) | 7.43 | 7.61 | Good (7.5–9.5 edge) | ngs_passing cache |
| Deep-ball rate | UNVERIFIED — quality elite: 1st in 20+ TDs (11), 3rd YPA (17.0), 4th on-target (59%) | UNVERIFIED | quality Elite | PFF/web (2024 season, fetched 2026-07-07) |
| Play-action rate (team) | 17.9% (138/770 derived) | 16.3% (118/726 derived) | Concern (<18%) — caller-owned | FTN derived; PFF via team profile |
| PFF grade | — | 91.8 overall, 2nd of 43 | Elite | PFF (fetched 2026-07-07) |
Read: the QB-owned traits are all genuinely elite and sticky — CPOE positive every year, historic TWP, career-best pressure-to-sack, elite deep-ball quality on a 28th-ranked PBWR line that his quick release masks (team profile). Nothing in the efficiency profile argues against the player; every number argues he's the best pure passer in this price range. The evaluation's problem is that this format pays the least for exactly this shape of excellence.
Context (from data/team-profiles/CIN.md, built 2026-07-07)
- Stability: high — the best environment in the file. Zac Taylor calls plays for an 8th year (confirmed retained, ESPN Jan 2026); Dan Pitcher stays at OC (poaching is a 2027 risk). Taylor + healthy Burrow = the most reliably pass-tilted profile in football: top-2 pass rate every healthy year since 2021, +4.3% PROE, 92% shotgun, 63.5% neutral pass rate (1st).
- Weapons continuity is total: vacated targets ~42 of ~608 (7% — Fant's 41). Chase (30.4% TS across three QBs), Higgins (18.4% TS with Burrow), Chase Brown (88 targets) all return. Well under the 40% tripwire → YPA/TD-rate carryover is trustworthy.
- OL: all 5 starters return (first time in a decade+) but ranked 28th in PBWR 2025; tackles (Brown Jr. 56th, Mims 48th of 75 in PFF pass-block) are the soft spot. Burrow's release and 17.4% pressure-to-sack mask most of it — team was top-10 in sack% in 2025.
- Script: win total 9.5, steaming Over, third-easiest schedule (SI, Feb 2026) — mild volume headwind at the margin (leading teams run), offset by Taylor's PROE. Net: ~37 att/g holds.
- Health/job: signed through 2029; benching risk zero. Full participant in OTAs and June minicamp post-toe surgery ("now is certainly not the time for injuries" — cautious reps, bengals.com/CBS Sports, Jun 2026). Note: cached weekly data shows his 2025 return game was Week 13 (Thanksgiving vs BAL — NFL.com), not Wk 12 as the team profile states.
- Contingency: Flacco (tier-A backup, re-signed Mar 2026) kept this passing game fully functional in 2025 — relevant to Chase/Higgins evals, not to Burrow's own line.
Tripwires (re-run this eval if any fire)
- ADP slides past ~60 (round 5+, QB3-or-later territory — where Underdog already prices him): the objection is price → verdict likely flips to HOLD/TARGET.
- League scoring confirmed as 6pt pass TD, or format is superflex/2QB: his pass-TD edge revalues +50% / scarcity repricing → re-run immediately (qb.md §9).
- Any toe/foot or soft-tissue setback in camp (Jul–Aug 2026): floor and games projection void; also flips the Chase/Higgins/Brown stack context to the Flacco contingency line.
- Chase or Higgins extended absence (injury/holdout): YPA and TD-rate anchors re-derive downward; environment premium gone.
- Taylor cedes play-calling or a starting OL loss in camp: volume (PROE) and pressure inputs re-derive.
Sources
data/stats/2025/&data/stats/2024/: passing.csv, rushing.csv, weekly.csv (game logs, EPA, CPOE, fumbles), ngs_passing.csv (CPOE, aDOT, time-to-throw), pbp_summary.csv, ftn_charting.csv + participation.csv (CIN-possession join: QB sneaks, PA rate, INT-worthy, RPO) — nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv— FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07: Burrow 47.6 QB2 (Allen 27.8 QB1, Lamar 53.0 QB3, Dak 58.8, Maye 65.2, Daniels 86.6, Goff 90.1, Purdy 96.3, Stafford 100.9)data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json— age 29 (DOB 1996-12-10), 6 years exp, Active, no injury statusdata/team-profiles/CIN.md— built 2026-07-07 (Taylor/Pitcher, PROE, OL, hierarchy, win total 9.5, Flacco contingency)- PFF via web search (fetched 2026-07-07): 2025 TWP 0.7% (best recorded, min 250 db), 18 BTT/2 TWP, 91.8 overall grade (2nd of 43); 20+ air-yard 2024 ranks (11 TD 1st, 17.0 YPA 3rd, 59.0 on-target% 4th)
- Goodberry (X, Nov 2024, via web search 2026-07-07): 2024 pressure-to-sack 17.4%, career best
- RotoWire/NFL.com/CBS Sports (fetched 2026-07-07): QB5 in fantasy PPG since Week 13 return; Thanksgiving Week 13 return vs BAL; 16 games missed since start of 2023
- bengals.com / CBS Sports minicamp coverage (Jun 2026, fetched 2026-07-07): full OTA/minicamp participation, cautious rep management, healthy entering camp
- CBS Sports 2026 outlook + FantasyPros (fetched 2026-07-07): market view — QB2 by average points 2024; Underdog ADP 65.2 (QB3); expert ranks QB3–QB6
UNVERIFIED(not obtainable from cache or web this run): provider passing/rushing xTD, provider xFP, inside-5/RZ carry counts, exact scramble-vs-designed split, 2025 pressure-to-sack, deep-ball attempt rate