Juwan Johnson

Juwan Johnson (TE, NO) — 2026 evaluation

Verdict

TARGET (medium confidence) at ADP 156.5 / TE17 (FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07). Johnson is a punt-tier price on the incumbent TE8 (total PPR points) / TE12 (PPG) who kept an 83% pass-snap route share across two quarterbacks and produced *better* with the returning QB (11.4 PPG weeks 10–18 with Shough). Why the market is wrong: it reads the remade pass-catching corps — Jordyn Tyson at 1.08, Noah Fant in free agency, Oscar Delp at 3.73 — as a demotion, but the TE arrivals were bought to expand multi-TE sets (Moore's stated 2026 emphasis; he historically doubles the Saints' 2025 12-personnel rate), not to replace the only proven route-runner in the room, and Shough spent OTAs funneling throws to the TE group with Johnson "a constant target." The honest cap: a thin red-zone role (8 RZ targets, outside the top-20 TEs) in a goal-line run-lean offense keeps the median near the streamer baseline — which is why this is TARGET at a free price, not MUST-HAVE.

Projection & comps

Bottom-up. Team volume from data/team-profiles/NO.md (2026-07-07): ~65 plays/gm, ~34 att/gm (~578 attempts), ~36 route-eligible dropbacks/gm — pass rate drifting down from 2025's script-inflated 63.9% (win total 7.5, Etienne signing, stated run/TE-set emphasis).

Cross-check via target share: 578 att × 15% TS (median band, down from 18.05% for the Tyson/Fant tax) ≈ 87 targets — converges with the routes×TPRR build. TD anchor: 3 TDs on 102 targets (2.9%) in 2025 *undershot* even a modest usage-based xTD (~5 on that volume), but the RZ role was genuinely thin (8 RZ targets) and Moore was dead-last in inside-10 pass PROE weeks 8–18 — so project regression up to 4 (median), not a spike to 7–8. Includes −2 for one lost fumble (he lost 2 in 2025). Games risk: medium — 17/17 in 2025 but June-2024 foot fracture + surgery, and he turns 30 on 2026-09-13 (week 1), which per te.md §9 earns the age bump.

Comps (role/profile): Dalton Schultz 2021 DAL (Moore calling plays: 104 tgt, 78-808-8, ~207 PPR — the Moore-TE1 ceiling analog), Dalton Schultz 2022 DAL (Moore: 89 tgt, 57-577-5, ~145 — floor-median analog), Tyler Higbee 2022 (108 tgt, 72-620-3, ~150 — the TD-poor slot-volume median), Zach Ertz 2024 WSH (91 tgt, 66-654-7, ~174 — aging slot TE with a young QB's trust), Evan Engram 2022 JAX (98 tgt, 73-766-4, ~173 — athletic detached TE in an ascending young-QB offense). Comp stat lines from general historical record (pre-2026).

External projections: none — data/projections/ absent (checked 2026-07-07).

Usage profile (te.md §2 table)

Routes are a charted-play proxy from participation.csv (on-field for charted pass plays; pass-block snaps not separable). 2025 = 17 games, 2024 = 15 games.

2×2 read (te.md §2): RP ≥80% + TPRR 0.200 is the healthy quadrant — a full-time route-runner earning at a near-elite rate, not a decoy and not a checkdown outlet. Sample is robust (510 + 420 routes-proxy over two seasons).

Archetype (§8): Big slot without the elite target share — detached-alpha usage shape (RP, slot lead, converted-WR body) but TS 18% and a thin RZ role keep him below the league-winner version. Age screen (§9): turns 30 week 1; peak band is 25–29, and decline shows first in detached rate — the 2026 minicamp slot reports are exactly the §9 role-verification the age bucket demands, and they check out (as of June 2026).

Man/zone TPRR splits and MOF-vs-boundary target mix: UNVERIFIED (no charting export in data/raw/; not recoverable free). Pass-block and run-block snap rates: UNVERIFIED — noted risk, though his body type and 2025 usage argue against a protector role.

Context (data/team-profiles/NO.md, built 2026-07-07)

• Offense quality: win total 7.5 (BetMGM, 2026-07-07) — neutral script lean, up from 4.5; ~65 plays/gm (every Moore offense ≥65). Not a bottom-8 cap, not a top-10 boost.
• QB: Tyler Shough, year 2, publicly committed (ESPN, 2026-01-08). The rapport is demonstrated, not projected — Johnson posted 11.38 PPG and 10.65 yds/target on Shough's weeks 10–18 vs 9.88 PPG under Rattler, and Shough's OTA 7-on-7 work ran through the TE room with Johnson a constant target (nola.com OTA coverage, June 2026). Contingency: a Shough injury drops every NO pass-catcher a tier (backup is Rattler/Zach Wilson, tier C).
• Play-caller TE history (§5/§6): Moore fed his DAL TE1 (Schultz 104 and 89 targets in 2021–22) and made TE usage + multi-TE sets a stated 2026 point of emphasis; he ran 29.9% 12-personnel in PHI 2024 vs the Saints' 11.2% in 2025 (nola.com via team profile). Rising 12P grows TE routes but is run-lean — it feeds exactly one TE's receiving line, and the incumbency evidence says that's Johnson.
• PA rate: UNVERIFIED for 2025 (team profile) — can't credit the PA-seam boost; neutral.
• Target competition (§6): the honest negative. 107+ vacated targets, but heavy capital came in against them: Tyson (1.08) is the presumptive WR2 and hits the target tree hard when healthy (he was limited all offseason — PFN, June 2026); Olave (27.6% TS, 156 targets in 2025) worked the slot most at minicamp — direct MOF competition; Fant (2-yr deal) is a pass-catcher-first TE2 claiming real 12P routes, though his 2025 was modest (41 tgt, 34-288-3, 6.7% TS in 13 gm at CIN — receiving.csv); Delp (3.73) is a §10 red-flag item on paper ("team drafted a TE rounds 1–3"), but beat coverage frames him as the traditional blocking Y (nola.com), which threatens Johnson's *blocking* snaps, not his slot routes. 2025 TE2 route counts were trivial — Moreau 90, Hill 81, Stoll 70 charted pass snaps vs Johnson's 510 (participation.csv) — so Fant is a genuine new tax of maybe 100–150 routes. Hierarchy: Olave → Tyson → Johnson (3rd) → Etienne → Kamara (contested). Elite TE seasons come from top-2; his healthy-roster ceiling is capped, but the two players above him carry live health questions (Olave blood clot recovery; Tyson maintenance plan).
• OL: 29th PBWR in 2025 (ESPN, 2026-01-06) — double-jeopardy risk (chip assignments, compressed quick game), partially mitigated by 4/5 returning + Edwards at LG, and the quick-game lean actually funnels short targets his way.

Scarcity-tier placement (te.md §7)

Punt tier, correctly priced as one — with the profile of a mid-tier TE attached. Streamer baseline: 2025 TE12 PPG = 10.58 (weekly.csv, min 8 gm — Johnson himself was that line) + 0.5–1.0 streaming bump ≈ 11.1–11.6 PPG. His median (~9.3 PPG) is baseline-minus, his ceiling (~11.4 PPG) is baseline-flat with a top-8 TE total-points outcome if the TD count normalizes or a WR misses time. That is a punt-tier asset by the table ("one elite trait or a role bet; 0 to +1.5 PPG; last-2-rounds picks"), and at 156.5 (the round-13/14 turn in a 12-team) that's exactly what he costs. He is not a dead-zone trap (nobody is paying rounds 5–8) and not pay-up-worthy (no credible ≥13 PPG path with this RZ role). His elite trait — top-3-at-the-position route participation — is the one te.md §2 calls the gate, which is why he's the right *kind* of punt: the failure mode is boring (streamer-level points), not zero (no routes). TE-premium note: +0.5/rec adds ~+2 PPG on 63–74 catches and promotes him to clear mid-tier value; +1.0 makes him a startable bargain — re-run if scoring confirms a premium.

Portfolio action: draft as TE1a in a punt build (rounds 12–14), ideally paired with a second late TE or a streaming plan; Strange (152.6, TARGET) and Johnson are the same-priced fork — Strange offers the RZ-role upside, Johnson the route-volume floor. Holding both is a legitimate punt-tier portfolio.

Tripwires (void this eval; re-run)

• Fant running ahead of Johnson in 11-personnel with the starters in camp/preseason, or Johnson's preseason route share < 70% — the routes thesis inverts into the §10 blocking-demotion pattern.
• Camp alignment reports put Johnson inline while Olave/Fant own the slot — the age-30 detached-rate decline signal; ceiling reverts to blocking-Y territory.
• Any foot/soft-tissue flare in camp (2024 fracture/surgery history, age 30) — floor scenario becomes the base case.
• Taysom Hill un-retires and re-signs (team profile watch item) — claws back RZ/TE-adjacent snaps from an already thin TD role.
• ADP rises inside ~pick 125 / TE12–13 — the punt-price edge is gone; verdict decays to HOLD, and to FADE if the rise is TD-narrative-driven.