San Francisco 49ers

SF — team profile

Built per methodology/team-context.md. Every number needs a source + as-of date or the UNVERIFIED mark. Position evals cite this file; they do not re-research it.

2025 context: 49ers went 12-5, NFC West runner-up, made the playoffs as a wild card, beat the defending-champion Eagles 23-19 in the Wild Card round, then were blown out 41-6 at Seattle (the eventual Super Bowl LX champion) in the Divisional round (Wikipedia 2025 SF season / 49ers.com, Jan 2026). They did it through an injury wave: Purdy (turf toe, 9 games), Bosa (ACL, Week 3), Warner (broken/dislocated ankle, Oct 12), Kittle (11 games), Pearsall (PCL, 9 games). The 2026 offseason then remade the pass-catching room (Evans, Kirk, R2 Stribling in; Jennings, Bourne out; Aiyuk refusing reinstatement) and the defensive coordinator chair (Saleh → Titans HC; Raheem Morris in).

Play-caller

• Calls plays: Kyle Shanahan (HC) — confirmed, incumbent: Shanahan remains the primary play-caller in 2026 with OC Klay Kubiak calling "a lot of plays" situationally; SF blocked any lateral OC move for Kubiak, who withdrew from HC consideration and stays for 2026 (ProFootballRumors 2026-01; Niners Nation "Kubiak plans to stay"; 49ers.com OC profile — all re-verified 2026-07-07). Kubiak called plays in at least one 2025 game (vs DEN — SI), but the offense is Shanahan's.
• Tenure with team: 10th season as SF HC/play-caller (2017–) · Prior relationship with QB1: Purdy's only NFL coach (since 2022); Shanahan also went 5-3 with backup Mac Jones in 2025.

Last 3 play-calling stops (all SF — Shanahan has called SF's plays since 2017; all rows regular-season only, computed 2026-07-07 from nflverse pbp/FTN/participation via nflreadpy under one consistent model — see method notes below):

Method notes (all computed 2026-07-07): PROE = mean(pass) − mean(xpass) on rush/pass plays, nflfastR expected-pass model. Neutral = win prob 20–80%, >2:00 left in half. Pace = snap-to-snap game-clock delta with running clock (prev play in-bounds run/completion, same drive), league-ranked under the same method — the rank is the signal; the absolute seconds are not comparable to the methodology's 27.5/29.5 bands. Motion/PA = FTN charting share of rush/pass plays / dropbacks. Personnel = nflverse participation. RB tgt share includes FB Juszczyk.

Read: The canonical Shanahan/McVay-tree caller — mildly run-lean PROE at full strength (−2.2 both prior years, −0.9 in the injury-reshaped 2025), elite motion rate (66–70%, top tier all three years), healthy play-action, and league-high 21 personnel (~36% every year) that structurally caps WR3 snaps. Two real 2025 shifts to carry forward: pace flipped from bottom-2 to 5th-fastest (corroborated by FanDuel Research charting, Oct 2025), and the inside-10 pass rate has climbed three straight years (36.8 → 49.0 → 54.2%) — red-zone TD equity now tilts toward the pass catchers (CMC receiving, Kittle, the new WRs) rather than plunge carries. The target tree is the NFL's most RB-funneled (30.5% RB+FB in 2025; CMC led the team outright); the WR1 target share has never exceeded ~22% under this roster construction — expect Evans/Kittle to split the non-CMC lead rather than either reaching a true alpha share. Designed-touch/YAC roles are claims on Shanahan and are stable; Evans/Kirk slot into established archetypes rather than forcing scheme change.

QB situation

• QB1: Brock Purdy — 5-yr, $265M extension (signed May 2025 — ESPN); benching risk: none (Shanahan on playing Mac Jones over a healthy Purdy: "not a hard decision" — NFL.com, 2025). 2025: turf toe limited him to 9 starts; fully recovered entering 2026 (ESPN, 2026 offseason).
• Backup: Mac Jones — tier A (proven starter: 5-3 in 8 2025 starts, 268.9 pass ypg — 2nd in NFL over that span, CPOE +3.1% — 8th, 69.6% comp — 9th; ESPN, Jan 2026). Under contract for 2026 with a small spring pay bump; trade talk resolved, he stays (SF Standard 2026-02-28; 49ers Webzone, June 2026).
• Contingency line: If Purdy misses time: Mac Jones, tier A — 2025 proved the pass game survives intact (≤5% pass-rate cut, aDOT holds, WR/TE values hold, CMC's target share holds). This is the best QB2 situation in the league; do not widen pass-catcher ranges much for Purdy games-risk (low-medium given 2025 toe, now healed).

O-line

• Projected starters LT–RT: LT Trent Williams (age-38 season; re-upped 2-yr/$50M, $37M gtd on 2026-04-20 — ESPN/NFL.com; 92% PBWR, 20th among OT in 2025 — ESPN), LG Connor Colby (2nd-yr, 455 snaps as 2025 rookie — CONTESTED/open battle with R4 #127 rookie Carver Willis and vets; Ben Bartch left for DET, Spencer Burford not projected — Niners Nation/SI, June 2026), C Jake Brendel (95% RBWR, 17th IOL — ESPN), RG Dominick Puni (tied-10th among RG — PFF via 49ers Webzone, 2026), RT Colton McKivitz (tied-12th among RT; career-high 90.4 run-block grade — PFF via 49ers Webzone).
• Interior vs edge: Interior is the relative strength at C/RG (Brendel/Puni), with LG the one soft spot — a second-year late-round starter or a rookie R4; expect interior pressure leakage from that spot early, which nicks deep-game efficiency at the margin (Purdy's top-5 pressure-to-sack ratio mitigates — SF Standard, 2025). Edge is Williams (still elite, but 38 with recent injury seasons) and McKivitz (plus run blocker) — if Williams misses time, protection compresses to quick game and Kittle chips more. ESPN analysts project a possible top-10 unit if LG resolves (Niners Nation, June 2026).

Scheme family

• Run scheme: Wide/outside zone (Shanahan tree) with gap/counter change-ups out of 21/22 personnel — RB profiles that fit: one-cut, lateral-burst backs (CMC; rookie Kaelon Black was drafted explicitly for scheme + pass-pro fit — NBC Bay Area, Shanahan quotes, May 2026). Downhill plodders don't fit.
• Pass-game family: Shanahan/McVay tree — wide zone married to play-action (22.3% of dropbacks), elite motion (68.5%), league-high 21 personnel. Implications: YAC engine with intermediate in-breakers; mid aDOT; slot/YAC profiles and TE/FB routes eat; WR3 snaps are structurally capped (43.1% 11 personnel = bottom of the league); the No. 1 target can carry a huge share, but in this roster the "WR1 target share" historically funnels through CMC/Kittle as much as any wideout.

Target/touch hierarchy & vacated math

Departed (2025 targets / carries — nflverse receiving.csv & rushing.csv, pulled 2026-07-07):

• WR Jauan Jennings — 90 tgt / 0 car (→ MIN, 1-yr $8M up to $13M, 2026-05-07 — NFL.com/ESPN)
• WR Kendrick Bourne — 53 tgt (→ ARI, 2-yr $10M, ~2026-03-09/12 — Niners Nation/Wikipedia)
• RB Brian Robinson Jr. — 12 tgt / 92 car (→ ATL — 49ers Webzone tracker, March 2026)
• WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling — 8 tgt (off 2026 depth chart; destination UNVERIFIED)
• WR Skyy Moore — 7 tgt / 2 car (off 2026 depth chart; destination UNVERIFIED)
• WR Brandon Aiyuk — 0 tgt in 2025 (on reserve/left squad since Dec 2025). Effectively finished in SF: on 2026-07-07 Aiyuk posted he "will not be reinstating with them or ever doing any kind of business with them"; SF voided $27M in 2026 guarantees, may seek to recoup $13.8–18.4M in signing bonus, has given up on a trade, and no release path exists unless he petitions for reinstatement; Washington's interest has waned (ProFootballRumors/NBC Sports/SF Standard, 2026-07-02 → 07-07). Vacates nothing statistically; treat him as off the 2026 roster picture for projection purposes.

Vacated targets: ~170 (163 confirmed-departure + 15 likely) of 550 · Vacated carries: ~94 of 481

Arrivals (claim):

• WR Mike Evans — 3-yr/$42.4M (up to $60.4M), $16.3M gtd, effectively 1-yr/$14.3M fully gtd (signed ~2026-03-12 — ESPN/Spotrac). Immediate X/WR1 claim — "their No. 1 guy" (ESPN); age-33 season; Kittle recruited him.
• WR Christian Kirk — 1-yr/$6M, $2.78M gtd (agreed 2026-03-16, official 3/21 — ESPN/49erscap). Primary slot claim ("Kirk should handle slot duties" — beat depth-chart reporting via DraftSharks/RotoWire, re-verified 2026-07-07).
• WR De'Zhaun Stribling (Ole Miss) — R2 #33 (SF traded down from R1 #27 via MIA and #30 via NYJ — Wikipedia/ESPN draft, April 2026). Real capital; year-1 role gated by 21-personnel usage.
• RB Kaelon Black (Indiana) — R3 #90; best pass-protecting RB in the class per draft coverage; OTA frontrunner for RB2 (ESPN/SF Standard, June 2026).
• Re-signed/retained: TE Jake Tonges (2-yr, 2026-03-12 — Niners Nation), FB Kyle Juszczyk (under contract through 2026; 2025 first-team All-Pro; confirmed returning — NBC Bay Area, Jan 2026), K Eddy Piñeiro (4-yr ext).

Projected pecking order (beat depth charts — RotoWire/ESPN/DraftSharks re-verified 2026-07-07 + 2025 usage + Shanahan tendencies):

RB committee split: CMC is all three downs — early-down, passing-down, and goal-line (65% carry share + 23.5% TS in 2025). RB2 is CONTESTED: rookie Kaelon Black (R3, OTA frontrunner, pass-pro claim) vs Jordan James vs Isaac Guerendo (torn pec, out until at least August — ESPN, June 2026), with Patrick Taylor/Sincere McCormick as depth. Expected shape: Black spells CMC 8–12 touches/gm to manage the age-30 workload; any CMC absence makes Black the presumptive lead.

Game environment

• Vegas win total: 10.5 (BetMGM, over +105 / under −125, re-verified 2026-07-07; opened 10.5, tied for league-high tier — BetMGM/CBS; note SF was 5-1 in one-score games in 2025, ~1.5 wins over expected — CBS betting trends) → script lean: positive (≥9.5)
• Projected plays/game: ~64–65 · Projected pass rate: ~58% (dropbacks)
• Projected pass attempts/game: ~33.5 · rush attempts/game: ~28 (show inputs)
• Inputs: SF 2025 = 64.7 plays/gm, 59.7% pass rate, EPA/play +0.090 (nflverse pbp_summary, pulled 2026-07-07); 2025 neutral pace 5th-fastest (computed 2026-07-07) supports holding ~64+ plays; actual 2025 = 33.8 att/gm + 1.6 sacks + ~3.3 scrambles, 28.3 carries/gm (nflverse passing/rushing.csv). Caller PROE series −2.2 / −2.2 / −0.9 (2023–25, nflfastR) + neutral pass 56.8–58.2% + positive script (10.5 win total) → pass rate settles ~58%: 64.5 × 0.58 ≈ 37 dropbacks − ~1.7 sacks − ~2 scrambles ≈ 33.5 attempts; 64.5 × 0.42 ≈ 27 designed rushes + scrambles ≈ 28. If Mac Jones starts a stretch, hold these numbers (tier-A backup, 2025-proven).

Defensive identity

Per methodology §8 — consumed by DST evals (dst.md §3) and /weekly-edge coverage-matchup reads (in-season.md §2).

• Runs the defense: Raheem Morris (DC) — confirmed: hired 2026-02-01 to replace Robert Saleh, who left to become Titans HC (Wikipedia/SF Standard/ESPN, Feb 2026; re-verified via SF Standard and Niners Nation Morris coverage, 2026-07-07). Morris coordinates and calls it; Matt Eberflus was hired 2026-02-02 as assistant HC/defense (replacing Gus Bradley) in a support role, not as the caller (Wikipedia/49erscap staff page, fetched 2026-07-07).
• Tenure with team: 1st season (prior Shanahan ties: Washington, Atlanta 2015-16 staffs) · New DC: YES → new-DC protocol; all 2025 SF scheme rates below are VOID for 2026 projection — recorded for reference only. dc_new: true.
• Front/scheme family: 4-down base retained, with more odd/5-man front and sim-pressure mixes than Saleh ran (Morris says he'll keep the four-man-front foundation while mixing five-man fronts — SI/ESPN/Niners Nation, Feb–June 2026).

Morris prior-stop scheme profile (new-DC protocol, sources: Niners Nation Morris primer via insidethe49 mirror, fetched 2026-07-07; SF Standard 2026-05-07):

• ATL 2025 (HC, defense run under his direction): 42.4% blitz rate through 6 weeks — 2nd only to Brian Flores; 7th-highest passing-down blitz rate and 2nd-highest run-down stunt rate full season; coverage = Cover 3 at the 5th-highest rate, Cover 6 3rd-highest, Cover 1 (man) 3rd-LOWEST — pressure-aggressive but zone-shell, not man-heavy.
• LAR DC 2021–23 (last stop calling a defense; SB LVI): Fangio-adjacent — low blitz volume, zone-heavy quarters/Cover-6 with heavy post-snap rotation/disguise, pressure via front-four + sim pressures; run defense 7th in rushing EPA, 5th in success rate over the span. Exact LAR-era blitz/man/zone percentages: UNVERIFIED.
• Personnel fit: good — SF's 2025 secondary already played 73.4% zone, so the coverage install cost is low; the swing is pressure structure: Saleh blitzed 20.3% in 2025 (Niners Nation; 22.6% by local charting) and Morris's recent profile says expect SF's blitz rate to rise materially, especially if Bosa's knee limits the 4-man rush.

Context: 21.8 points allowed/gm, EPA/play allowed +0.066, only 15 takeaways (nflverse def_summary 2025); 25th in pass yards allowed, 21st in pass TD allowed (Sharp/49ers Webzone, 2026). The 2025 pass rush collapsed with Bosa (Wk 3 ACL) and R1 rookie Mykel Williams (Wk 9 ACL) lost; RSWR 31% (11th) held up.

• Key defensive arrivals/departures (edge and CB1 first):
• OUT — edge Bryce Huff, RETIRED 2026-03-12 (Wikipedia 2026 season page): he was SF's best 2025 rusher — 15% PRWR, 12th among DE (ESPN, Jan 2026). A real pressure-rate hit if Bosa isn't right.
• OUT — DT Jordan Elliott → TEN (2-yr, reunion with Saleh — Niners Nation, March 2026); DC Saleh → TEN HC.
• RETURNING FROM IR (function as arrivals) — edge Nick Bosa (Wk 3 2025 ACL — his second ACL; "tracking well for Week 1" — Heavy/Niners Nation, June 2026), edge/DL Mykel Williams (2025 R1; Wk 9 ACL; Week 1 "a closer call" — same), LB Fred Warner (ankle; "fully healthy, no limitations" — ESPN, 2026 offseason).
• IN — LB Dre Greenlaw (1-yr $7.5M return after 2025 in DEN — 49ers Webzone tracker, 2026-03-13); R3 #70 edge Romello Height (Texas Tech); R4 #107 DT Gracen Halton; R4 #139 CB Ephesians Prysock; R5 #154 LB Jaden Dugger (ESPN/NFL.com draft, April 2026).
• CB room is continuity: CB1 Deommodore Lenoir (1,192 snaps in 2025), CB2 Renardo Green (6.6 yds/target, 84.1 rating allowed through two seasons), slot Upton Stout — same projected trio (49ers Webzone/SI, June 2026).
• Shadow-CB tendency: UNVERIFIED — no established travel pattern reported for Lenoir/Green under Saleh, and Morris's deployment is unknown until camp/season charting.

Read: A zone-shell, disguise-oriented Morris defense (Cover 3/Cover 6/quarters — his ATL secondary ran Cover-1 man at the 3rd-lowest rate) lands on a zone-built SF secondary, so coverage install friction is low; the real change is pressure structure — Morris's recent stops say blitz and stunt rates rise materially from Saleh's ~20%, which raises weekly sack/turnover variance. 2025's 3.16% sack rate and 29th PRWR were injury artifacts; the 2026 ceiling rides on Bosa's and Mykel Williams' knees, with Huff's retirement removing the pressure floor. DST evals: cap confidence (dc_new: true, year-1 install, two edge ACL returns); /weekly-edge: treat SF as zone-leaning until charted otherwise — opposing option-route slots and YAC profiles are the matchup to check.

Stability & change log

• Stability: medium — per methodology §10: incumbent play-caller (Shanahan, 10th yr) + same QB1 (Purdy, healthy) + 4/5 OL returning would read high, but the offense carries exactly one major change: a top-of-depth-chart WR overhaul (WR1 Evans, slot Kirk, and R2 Stribling all new; Jennings/Bourne gone; Aiyuk refusing reinstatement) layered over an open LG spot and an open RB2 battle. CMC's age-30/413-touch profile and the Kittle/Pearsall injury histories reinforce medium. Defensive turnover (new DC, Huff retirement, Bosa/Williams ACLs) is carried in §8 via dc_new: true, not in this rating.
• Watch items: (1) Aiyuk endgame — reinstatement refusal (7/7) makes any 2026 SF role a non-factor, but a surprise reinstatement-and-release before camp (report date July 25 — ESPN) would put him on another roster; roster fact only, no 2025 usage to vacate; (2) Pearsall's PCL through camp — if it lingers, Kirk/Stribling move up and the WR order re-sorts; (3) LG battle (Colby vs R4 Willis) — interior pressure risk; (4) RB2 (Black vs Guerendo's August pec return) — CMC contingency claim; (5) Bosa/Mykel Williams Week-1 clearance — defensive identity only; (6) Evans age-33 camp reports; (7) win-total move ≥1.5; (8) any CMC soft-tissue news (2024 history) — fires every SF eval tripwire.