Don't Look at My Team

De'Zhaun Stribling (WR, SF) — 2026 evaluation

Scoring note: the evaluator brief said to assume full PPR with league-settings unconfirmed, but methodology/league-settings.md was confirmed 2026-07-08 (half-PPR 0.5/rec, 6pt pass TD, no TE premium) — this eval uses the confirmed half-PPR scoring, consistent with the 199 evals already rescored to "Half-PPR, 6pt pass TD". Full-PPR equivalents: add ~0.5/rec (floor ~47 / median ~90 / ceiling ~155).

Verdict

TARGET (medium confidence) at an undrafted/free price (no FFC 15-round mock ADP, 2026-07-07; carried only via Sleeper search-rank tail, #214, 2026-07-08). The market's case is fair: he's the WR4 on the NFL's most WR-hostile target tree (CMC 23.5% team-high TS in 2025; no Shanahan-SF WR has cleared ~22% in three years; league-high ~36% 21 personnel structurally caps WR3+ snaps), he's an old rookie (24 in December) who needed five college seasons and three schools, and the 2025 version of his role (Demarcus Robinson) produced 35 targets. Why the market is wrong: at literally zero cost it is pricing him like a roster clog when he is the system's textbook contingent-value rookie — #33-overall capital (SF's top 2026 pick; near-R1, "real runway" per prospect-pedigree §1) with a 9.57 RAS behind one of the most fragile WR-depth-chart trios in football: an age-33 Mike Evans on an effectively 1-yr deal, Ricky Pearsall with a PCL that cost him half of 2025 and re-aggravated Week 17, and Christian Kirk on a 1-yr/$6M deal. One injury ahead of him puts a team-force-fed R2 pick into full routes on a 10.5-win-total offense, and even the standalone path — the beat/coach expectation is a role that "grows late-season" (SI via team profile) — lands exactly on fantasy playoff weeks. Free lottery tickets with live paths are the hunt at this pool depth; this is one.

Bull case

Near-R1 capital in the league's most fragile WR depth chart: #33 overall with a 9.57 RAS sitting behind an age-33 Evans (1-yr practical), a Pearsall who has missed 14 of 34 possible games in two seasons with a live PCL flag, and a $6M 1-yr slot vet — the joint probability that all three stay healthy 17 games is low, and any single absence hands a team-force-fed R2 pick full routes on a 10.5-win offense.
The standalone path peaks at the right time: SF's own beat expectation is a rookie package that grows late-season (SI via team profile, 2026-07-07) — Shanahan did exactly this with Pearsall (2024) and Jennings; the verified output of the seized version of this role is Jennings 2025's 90-target, ~146 half-PPR season, and SF's inside-10 pass rate (54.2%, third straight yearly rise) now feeds pass-catcher TDs.
He's free: zero draft cost, Sleeper tail listing. The floor case costs nothing; the ceiling case is a startable WR3+ for the fantasy playoffs. At this price the eval only has to be right about the *path*, not the median.

Bear case

The role math is brutal even in the median: league-high 21 personnel (~36%) plus a 43.1% 11-personnel rate means the WR4 barely sees the field — the 2025 occupant of this exact role (Demarcus Robinson) got 35 targets and 47 half-PPR points, and CMC/Kittle/Evans/Pearsall/Kirk all sit ahead of him in the target queue on a team whose WR1 has never cleared ~22% TS under Shanahan.
The pedigree has real cracks the capital papers over: five college seasons, three transfers, no verified early breakout, a 20.2% final-year dominator as the #2 receiver on his own college team, age 24 in December of his rookie year, and poor agility testing with scout-flagged separation issues vs. elite corners — this is the "workout warrior-adjacent" shape whose NFL earning rate is unproven at every level.
Rookie WRs in this offense start slow by design: Shanahan's system is a route-precision and run-blocking meritocracy where even R1 Pearsall needed until year 2 to be trusted; if Pearsall stays healthy and Evans ages gracefully, Stribling's 2026 is 200-odd routes of developmental snaps and he's a waiver drop by Week 4 in a 6-bench league.

Projection & comps

Bottom-up (half-PPR, 17-game season; team inputs from data/team-profiles/SF.md, 2026-07-07: ~64.5 plays/gm, ~33.5 pass att/gm, ~550 team targets, pass rate ~58%):

Scenario	Shape	Routes	TS	Targets	Rec	Yards	TD	Half-PPR
Floor (p20)	Healthy room all year; pure rotational WR4 in 43% 11-personnel	~230	~5.5%	30	18	230	1	~40
Median (p50)	WR4 with a real package that ramps late (capital force-feed)	~350	~9%	50	31	405	3	~75
Ceiling (p80)	Pearsall PCL or Evans soft-tissue costs 6–8 games; full X/Z routes from mid-season	~470	~14.5%	80	51	670	5	~130

Inputs: rookie TPRR assumed ~0.14–0.17 (no NFL sample — prior from R2 capital + a 25.5% final-college target share; deliberately below the 0.22 breakout bar); catch rate ~62% on a short/intermediate Shanahan tree ("strong, reliable hands" — DFF scouting, 2026-04-24); TDs anchored to xTD ≈ 2–3 median (SF's inside-10 pass rate has climbed to 54.2%, but he is 5th–6th in the RZ pecking order behind CMC/Kittle/Evans/Pearsall). The true league-winner tail (p90+: Pearsall traded or out long-term, Stribling runs the full-season Jennings-2025 role — 90 tgt, ~146 half-PPR) sits above the p80 shown. No external projections available in data/projections/ (directory absent, checked 2026-07-08).

Games-played risk: low — durable 2024–25 (12 + 15 games); one college injury of note (2023 season-ending hand, Oklahoma State — Wikipedia). The dominant risk here is role, not health; it's carried in the scenario spread, not games.

Comp seasons (sanity check on range):

Demarcus Robinson 2025 SF — 35 tgt, 22-276-1, 47.2 half-PPR/14 gm (verified, data/stats/2025/receiving.csv): the exact role if nothing opens → floor
Ricky Pearsall 2024 SF (R1 #31) — 46 tgt, 31-400-3, 78.0 half-PPR/11 gm (verified, data/stats/2024/receiving.csv): same team, same gating, day-1 capital rookie → median
Kendrick Bourne 2025 SF — 53 tgt, 37-551-0, 73.6 half-PPR/14 gm (verified, 2025 receiving.csv): the SF WR3 rotation outcome → median
Christian Watson 2022 GB (R2 #34) — 66 tgt, 41-611-7 (approx., evaluator prior — not in cache): size/speed R2 whose role opened mid-season → ceiling
Jauan Jennings 2025 SF — 90 tgt, 55-643-9, 145.8 half-PPR/15 gm (verified, 2025 receiving.csv): the full "SF WR2 next to the field-stretcher" role → above-ceiling (p90) reference

Usage profile

No NFL usage exists — rookie (0 NFL snaps; nothing in data/stats/2024–2025). Per prospect-pedigree.md, priors get weighted up; the §2 opportunity table is filled with the projected role and college/pedigree inputs:

Metric	Value	Band	Read
Target share	Projected ~9% median (rookie WR4→3); college best 25.5% final-season TS (2024 OSU — DFF/PFF, 2026-04-24)	Concern (yr-1)	The 2025 SF WR4 (D-Rob) got 6.4%; capital + late ramp lifts the median above that
TPRR	No NFL sample; assumed 0.14–0.17 yr 1	UNVERIFIED	College YPRR 2.44 best season (DFF, 2026-04-24) suggests earning ability vs. Big 12; SEC year was more modest
Route participation	Projected 35–45% median; >80% only via the contingent path	Concern (yr-1)	43.1% 11-personnel (league-low tier) + 36.6% 21-personnel (league-high) is the structural cap — team profile, computed 2026-07-07
Air-yards share	Projected ~12–15% median	Concern (yr-1)	D-Rob got 11.4% AYS on 35 targets in this role in 2025 — downfield claim exists even for the SF WR4
WOPR	~0.23 median; ~0.55 in the contingent (Jennings-2025-shape) role	Concern → Good	The verdict rides on the probability the contingent role opens
RZ target share	Projected <10% median	Concern	5th–6th in line; SF's 54.2% inside-10 pass rate helps whoever is on the field late in the year
End-zone targets	UNVERIFIED (no sample)	—	6'2"/207 with 36" vert plays the boundary-fade role if he's out there
xFP	UNVERIFIED (no NFL sample; no provider export)	—	Anchored instead to the verified 2025 role outputs above

§2 2×2 read: not applicable yet — no RP/TPRR sample. The rookie-year question is purely *does he get routes*; the earliest hard evidence will be camp/preseason alignment and first-team rep reports (wr.md §4).

Pedigree (prospect-pedigree.md §§1–4):

Draft capital: R2 #33 overall, 2026 — SF's first pick, after trading down from R1 #27 (via MIA) and #30 (via NYJ) (Wikipedia/ESPN draft via team profile; olemisssports.com, 2026-04-24). Highest-drafted Ole Miss WR since Treadwell (2016). Capital is the master prior: it buys 2–3 years of runway and force-fed routes the moment anything opens.
College production: the soft spot. Five seasons, three schools: WSU 2021 (44-471-5, true freshman), WSU 2022 (51-602-5), OSU 2023 (14-198-1, 4 gm, season-ending hand injury), OSU 2024 (52-882-6 — team-leading, 25.5% TS, 2.44 YPRR), Ole Miss 2025 (55-811-6 in 15 gm — Wikipedia, fetched 2026-07-08). 2025 dominator ≈ 20.2% (17.3% of 4,679 team rec yds + 23.1% of 26 rec TD, computed from FOX Sports team table, fetched 2026-07-08) — #2 on his own team behind Harrison Wallace III (61-934-4). Breakout age: no verified ≥20% dominator season before age 21 (UNVERIFIED precisely; his freshman line implies well under 20%) — Concern band. Old rookie: born 2002-12-18, age 23.5 now, 24 in December. Mitigation: the 2025 room was a loaded all-transfer WR corps on a CFP team (four receivers ≥ 635 yds), and teammate quality cuts both ways per §4.
Athletic testing: elite with one hole. Official 4.36 forty at 6'2⅛"/207, 36" vert, 10'7" broad, RAS 9.57 official (9.88 unofficial; ~top-50 of 3,844 WRs since 1987) — NFL.com combine + RAS via search, 2026-03. But shuttle/3-cone poor — short-area quickness/twitch is the flagged deficiency (DFF, 2026-04-24). Per §3, production >> testing when they conflict — and his production is the weaker leg, which is why this is not a higher-conviction call.
Scouting shape (DFF, 2026-04-24; Kubiak quotes via NBC Bay Area, 2026-05-07): wins at all three levels with build-up speed, technically sound routes, strong reliable hands, excellent run blocking ("complete football player" — Kubiak); weaknesses: limited twitch/separation vs. elite CBs, not physical in contested situations, limited YAC elusiveness. Profile reads as a boundary X/Z possession-plus-vertical type — the run-blocking is a real Shanahan playing-time currency (Jennings won this exact job with it).

Alignment: outside X/Z rotation behind Evans (X) and Pearsall (Z); Sleeper depth chart LWR-4 (2026-07-07); precise college slot/wide % UNVERIFIED (no alignment export). Coverage splits: UNVERIFIED (no college charting export) — the DFF separation caveat vs. elite corners is the man-coverage worry.

Context (from `data/team-profiles/SF.md`, built/refreshed 2026-07-07)

Play-caller: Shanahan, 10th year (Kubiak OC, situational calls). Elite motion (68.5%), 22.3% PA, pace now 5th-fastest, mild run-lean PROE (−0.9). The tree is the NFL's most RB/TE-funneled: CMC 23.5% TS, 30.5% RB+FB target share in 2025. League-high 21 personnel (~36% three straight years) structurally caps the WR4 — the single biggest bear fact.
QB: Purdy ($265M, healthy) with tier-A backup Mac Jones — best QB2 situation in the league; the pass game survives a Purdy absence intact. Environment: 10.5 win total (BetMGM, 2026-07-07), ~33.5 att/gm, top-10-capable OL. Whatever routes he gets come in a high-quality offense.
The rebuilt room and its fragility: Evans (33, effectively 1-yr/$14.3M) is the X; Pearsall ("clear No. 2 if he's on the field" — beat reporting, July 2026; PCL Wk 4 2025, re-aggravated Wk 17, 9 games; also 11 games in 2024) is the Z; Kirk (1-yr/$6M) is the slot. Jennings (90 tgt) and Bourne (53) are gone — ~170 targets vacated; Aiyuk is off the 2026 picture (refused reinstatement 2026-07-07). Team profile watch item #2 verbatim: "Pearsall's PCL through camp — if it lingers, Kirk/Stribling move up."
Org buy-in / camp record: GM Lynch on drafting WRs: "probably healthy business to try to add them as much as you can in these drafts" (NBC Bay Area, 2026-04-24). OTA record uniformly positive: Purdy — "a guy that can come in and make an instant impact"; Kubiak — "complete football player"; Juszczyk on his explosion/acceleration at his size (49ers Webzone, 2026-05-22); "high-floor performer at OTAs" (SI OTA rookies roundup, June 2026); rookie-minicamp Day-1 standout (NBC Bay Area, May 2026). No first-team-rep reports yet — that's a tripwire, not evidence.
Long-term shape: neither Evans nor Kirk has guaranteed money beyond 2026 (NBC Bay Area, 2026-04-24) — Stribling is the drafted successor at outside WR; the question is only whether the future arrives in 2026 or 2027.

Tripwires (void this eval; re-run)

Pearsall PCL flares in camp / misses preseason time (team-profile watch item #2) → Stribling moves to top-3 WR; immediate upgrade re-run — likely high-confidence TARGET with a real median.
Evans (age-33) soft-tissue injury news at any point → same contingent trigger; upgrade re-run.
Camp/preseason reports him running with the 1s or clearly ahead of Kirk in 2-WR sets → standalone role bigger than projected; upgrade and expect ADP to move fast.
Preseason shows him behind Demarcus Robinson/Watkins in actual rotation, or beat reports a redshirt-shaped year → contingent path stays but standalone value dies; downgrade to low-confidence HOLD (waiver watchlist only).
ADP rises inside ~pick 140 (round 12, 12-team) → the free-price thesis is gone; at a real pick cost in a 6-bench half-PPR league, a 75-point median rookie is a HOLD at best.

Sources

data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json — age 23 (DOB 2002-12-18), 6'2"/207, Ole Miss, years_exp 0, SF depth LWR-4, search_rank 214, #15, Active.
data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv — no FFC PPR mock ADP; sleeper-searchrank tail row (2026-07-08). SF context: Evans 50.7, Purdy 96.3, Kittle 103.0, Pearsall 103.6, CMC 4.8; Kirk also undrafted.
data/stats/2025/receiving.csv + data/stats/2024/receiving.csv (nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07) — 2025 SF target tree (CMC 129/23.5%, Jennings 90/16.4%, Kittle 69, Pearsall 53/9 gm, Bourne 53, Tonges 46, D-Rob 35, Juszczyk 28); comp lines (Pearsall 2024 rookie 46 tgt/31-400-3; half-PPR conversions computed as PPR − 0.5×rec).
data/team-profiles/SF.md (built/refreshed 2026-07-07) — Shanahan tendencies (personnel, PROE, pace, motion, inside-10 pass 54.2%), hierarchy, vacated-target math (~170), Evans/Kirk/Pearsall contracts & roles, Pearsall PCL watch item, win total 10.5, draft trade-downs to #33, Aiyuk reinstatement refusal (2026-07-07), OL/QB context.
methodology/league-settings.md — half-PPR 0.5/rec, 6pt pass TD, no TE premium, confirmed 2026-07-08 (overrides the "assume full PPR" evaluator brief; discrepancy noted in header).
Wikipedia — De'Zhaun Stribling (fetched 2026-07-08): full college career table (WSU 2021–22, OSU 2023–24 incl. season-ending hand injury, Ole Miss 2025: 55-811-6/15 gm), DOB, 6'2⅛"/207, 4.36/36"/10'7", R2 #33 2026 by SF, rookie deal signed 2026-05-08.
olemisssports.com (2026-04-24) + 49ers Webzone + NFL.com + NBC Bay Area draft coverage (April 2026, via search 2026-07-08) — R2 #33 confirmation; "one-year starter at Ole Miss... 4.36 40"; highest-drafted Ole Miss WR since Treadwell 2016.
NFL.com combine video (March 2026) + The Rebel Walk + RAS via search (fetched 2026-07-08) — official 4.36 forty; RAS 9.57 official / 9.88 unofficial (~47th of 3,844 WRs 1987–2026); vert 36" (17th in class), broad 10'7" (11th in class).
Dynasty Football Factory prospect profile (2026-04-24, fetched 2026-07-08) — career-best 25.5% target share and 2.44 YPRR (2024 OSU); strengths (three-level winner, reliable hands, run blocking) and weaknesses (twitch/separation vs. elite CBs, contested-catch physicality, YAC elusiveness, poor shuttle/3-cone).
FOX Sports Ole Miss 2025 team receiving table (fetched 2026-07-08) — team 339-4,679-26; Wallace 61-934-4, Stribling 55-811-6; dominator ≈ 20.2% computed.
NBC Bay Area (2026-04-24, 2026-05-07/08, May 2026 minicamp) — fit analysis, Lynch quote, Kubiak expectations ("big, fast, powerful... complete football players"), rookie-minicamp Day-1 standout.
49ers Webzone (2026-05-22) — OTA impression piece: Purdy "instant impact," Kubiak "complete football player," Juszczyk explosion/acceleration quotes; "reach" criticism noted with positive internal evaluations.
SI OTA rookie-WR roundup (June 2026, via search 2026-07-08) — "high-floor performer at OTAs," strong hands, pro-ready frame, 10" hands.
RotoWire SF depth chart (via search 2026-07-08) — WR order Evans/Pearsall/Kirk/Stribling/D. Robinson/Watkins/Cowing; Aiyuk Reserve-DNR.
UNVERIFIED / gaps: NFL rookie usage (none exists); provider xFP; college slot/wide alignment %; college man/zone splits, drop rate, contested-catch rate, aDOT; exact breakout age / pre-2025 dominator seasons (freshman share not computed); 2024 OSU dominator (target share only, via DFF); Christian Watson 2022 comp line (evaluator prior, pre-cache).