Ricky Pearsall

Ricky Pearsall — WR, SF (2026)

Pedigree/age context: R1 pick #31, 2024 (nflverse rosters, pulled 2026-07-07); age 25, turns 26 on 2026-09-09 (Sleeper, 2026-07-07) — NFL year 3, the tail of the WR breakout window (wr.md §9), pre-decline curve. Fifth-year-option decision follows this season.

Verdict

TARGET at 103.6 (WR49). The market is pricing the season-long 2025 line (9 games, 9.8 PPG, 0 TD); the healthy-game usage says something else entirely: in his 6 non-PCL-hampered games, Pearsall posted a 21.1% target share, 41.7% air-yards share, 0.608 WOPR, and 88 yards/game — WR2-caliber opportunity — while scoring 0 TDs against ~2.9 expected (bucket-model xTD, nflverse pbp 2025). Why the market is wrong: it sees a zero-TD injury season and a crowded new WR room; the usage record plus pure positive TD regression is worth roughly two rounds by itself, and the beat consensus ("clear No. 2 [WR] if he's on the field" — July 2026) confirms the role survived the Evans/Kirk/Stribling overhaul. Health is the real risk — that's why this is TARGET (medium confidence, high games risk) and not MUST-HAVE: the price already carries most of the injury discount, but the WOPR path requires ~15 games from a player who hasn't played more than 11.

Projection & comps

Bottom-up (team inputs from data/team-profiles/SF.md, 2026-07-07: ~64.5 plays/gm, ~36–37 dropbacks/gm, ~33.5 att/gm, positive script at a 10.5 win total):

TD rate anchored to the 2025 xTD bucket model (0.055 xTD/target on his target profile), not his actual 0. Ceiling case = Evans (age 33) misses time or fades and Pearsall's healthy 21% TS becomes the non-CMC target lead. Games-played risk: high (9/17 in 2025 — hamstring PUP + Wk 4 PCL re-aggravated Wk 17; 11/17 in 2024, though that was the Aug 2024 gunshot recovery, not a football injury).

Comps (role/profile sanity check): Brandon Aiyuk 2021 (SF WR2 in this same tree, 56-826-5, ~169 PPR — the median), Jameson Williams 2024 (yr-3 deep-leaning No. 2 next to an alpha, 58-1,001-7, ~205 — upper), George Pickens 2023 (boundary aDOT-14 volume, 63-1,140-5, ~208 — volume ceiling), Rashod Bateman 2024 (boundary Z, modest TS, ~175 — TD-heavy mid), Christian Watson 2023 (9-game injury season, ~96 — the floor). No external projections in data/projections/ to cross-check (directory absent, 2026-07-07).

Usage profile (wr.md §2 table)

All 2025 figures computed 2026-07-07 from nflverse pbp/participation/FTN (REG only, his 9 active weeks: 1–4, 11–13, 15, 17) unless noted. "Healthy split" = Wks 1–4, 15, 17 (excludes the three PCL-return games 11–13 where he was visibly compromised: 9 tgt, 20 yds).

¹ Routes proxied as on-field dropbacks (nflverse participation joined to pbp). Corroboration: PFF charted him at 302 pass snaps incl. playoffs (via Heavy, 2026-07-03). ² Method: actual PPR/gm in the 6 healthy games (83.8 pts = 13.97 PPG, zero TD) + xTD gap (2.4 xTD in those games × 6 pts / 6 gm). Crude usage anchor, not a provider xFP.

Target quality / route tree (§3): aDOT 14.11 (2025) — deep band, volatile-floor territory; 2024 was 11.48. Depth mix 2025: 3 BLOS / 13 short / 20 intermediate / 17 deep — earns at 3+ depths, healthy tree, not a one-route go/post profile. Field zone: MOF 26.4% (14/53), boundary 73.6% — near the 75% boundary-only discount line; floor is target-depth fragile. 19 third-down targets in 9 games — strong trust-chain signal. 28 receiving first downs / 281 routes = 0.100 FD/RR (Good band).

Alignment (§4): 2025 slot/wide % UNVERIFIED (no cached alignment table; PlayerProfiler page didn't surface it, fetched 2026-07-07) — pbp target locations (73.6% boundary) and beat usage say he played predominantly outside/Z. 2026 role per beat depth charts (RotoWire/ESPN/DraftSharks via team profile, re-verified 2026-07-07): Z starter, Evans at X, Kirk primary slot — so the 2-WR sets in SF's league-high 21 personnel (36.6% of snaps) should be Evans + Pearsall, protecting his RP.

Coverage splits (§5): 2025 TPRR 0.232 vs man (23/99 routes) vs 0.165 vs zone (30/182) — a man-beater tilt, the scarce/valuable profile; 2024 was similar (0.159 man / 0.150 zone on smaller earning). NGS avg separation 2.34 (2025) — low, but read against a 13.9 intended-air-yards profile. Contested: 9 contested targets (FTN 2025); contested-catch conversion UNVERIFIED — not a contested-dependent profile by volume.

Efficiency (§6): YPRR 1.95 (2025, 281 routes — under the 300-route min, flag) vs 1.33 (2024). Y/T 9.96. Drop rate 1.9% (1 drop/53 — FTN) — elite hands signal. QB-vs-WR separation: only 69.8% catchable-target rate (37/53, FTN) and he caught 36 of 37 catchable balls — the 67.9% raw catch rate is depth-and-accuracy driven, not a hands problem. High TPRR-vs-man + low catchable rate = the methodology's buy signal, not a flaw. YAC over expected −0.74 (NGS 2025) — negative, consistent with a downfield/boundary profile in a YAC scheme; he's not the YAC engine, CMC is.

Archetype (§8): developing boundary Z / vertical No. 2 — deep-leaning (aDOT >14) so weekly volatility is real; PPR floor rests on the third-down role and intermediate work, not screens. Breakout screen (§9/pedigree §5): day-1 capital + year 3 + rising RP ✔, rookie TPRR ≥0.22 ✘ (0.157, gunshot-recovery context), competition departed (Jennings 90 tgt + Bourne 53 tgt out) but replaced with Evans/Kirk/Stribling — a partial screen hit at a crashed ADP, which is also the post-hype shape.

Context (from data/team-profiles/SF.md, built/refreshed 2026-07-07)

• Play-caller: Shanahan, year 10, incumbent — elite motion (68.5%), PA 22.3%, league-high 21 personnel that caps WR3s but not the Z. Pace flipped to 5th-fastest in 2025; inside-10 pass rate has risen three straight years to 54.2% — pass-catcher TD equity is improving.
• QB: Purdy healthy (turf-toe 2025 behind him), $265M deal; tier-A backup (Mac Jones, 5-3 in 2025) means pass-catcher values survive a Purdy absence. Pearsall produced with both: 36 tgt/375 yds from Purdy, 17 tgt/173 yds from Jones (pbp 2025).
• Target tree: the NFL's most RB-funneled — CMC 23.5% TS in 2025; no Shanahan-roster WR has cleared ~22% TS in three years. That structurally caps Pearsall's ceiling share near his healthy 21% — which he already hit.
• Vacated/arrivals math: ~170 targets vacated (Jennings 90, Bourne 53, others); arrivals Evans (X, "their No. 1 guy," age-33, effectively 1-yr $14.3M), Kirk (slot, 1-yr $6M), Stribling (R2 #33, X-Z rotation, year-1 role gated by 21 personnel). Net: competition quality up, but Pearsall is the only WR on the roster with a 2026-role claim *and* recent SF usage evidence.
• O-line: PBWR 10th, 4/5 returning; LG the soft spot — interior leakage nicks the deep game at the margin, relevant to an aDOT-14 profile.
• Environment: 10.5 win total, ~64.5 plays/gm, ~58% dropback rate → ~33.5 att/gm. Positive script, stable volume.

Tripwires (re-run this eval if any fire)

• Any Pearsall soft-tissue/knee setback in camp (PUP start, PCL flare, hamstring) — verdict likely drops to FADE/AVOID at cost; the thesis requires ~15 games.
• Stribling takes first-team Z reps ahead of Pearsall in August camp reports — role floor breaks.
• ADP rises inside ~pick 75 / WR40 — the mispricing is the edge; at that price this is a HOLD.
• Evans age/injury news (either direction) — he is the ceiling gate; an Evans absence upgrades Pearsall a full tier.
• Any CMC soft-tissue news — team-profile master tripwire; reshapes the whole SF target tree.