Jacksonville Jaguars DST — 2026 evaluation
Verdict
FADE (medium confidence) at ADP 129.9 (FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07) — DST7 by ADP, a round-11 pick in a 12-team league, costing a startable skill player: Dallas Goedert (128.9), Jonathon Brooks (129.6), Jauan Jennings (130.7), Jordan Mason (126.7), Mark Andrews (130.0). The market's case, stated fairly: JAX finished DST3 in 2025 (144 pts, 8.5 PPG — FantasyPros), set franchise records in takeaways (31), INTs (22), and passes defensed (107), fielded the NFL's best run defense (85.6 ypg), allowed the 8th-fewest points (19.76/gm), returns its DC (Campanile, year 2) and its entire edge room (Hines-Allen, Walker, Gardeck), plays in front of a top-third offense, and opens at home against a 6.5-win-total Cleveland team — and at DST7 the market has already discounted the unit four spots off its finish. Why the market is still wrong: it is paying a round-11 price for outputs, not inputs. The 2025 finish was spike-built — 31 takeaways from a defense that produced 9 the year before with the same edge core, plus 4 defensive/return TDs — sitting on a mid rush (PRWR 38%, 14th; 4.53% sack rate, concern band; pressure manufactured by a 27.7% blitz rate), and the two biggest INT engines (Devin Lloyd, team-high 5 INT, to CAR; CB Greg Newsome to NYG) walked. Regressed per dst.md §1/§4, the median (~120) is a DST9–13 unit whose *drafted* value is one premium week (CLE) followed by a weeks-2–5 stream-away stretch — and a comparable week-1 spot (DET home vs NO, ADP 139.1) exists a round later, with the JAX-shaped stream weeks covered free off waivers. FADE is price, not risk: at ~142+ (round 12+, DST9-or-later territory) this flips to TARGET as arguably the best week-1 card in football at dart cost.
Bull case
- The sack column points up, not down: two straight years of sub-21% pressure-to-sack conversion (19.0% in 2025) on good-band pressure (23.8%) is the 2×2 buy cell — ~35–40 sacks without anything improving — and the full edge room returns under the same DC in year 2, the exact continuity profile dst.md §3 rewards in the weeks 1–4 window.
- Week 1 is arguably the best drafted-week matchup in football: home vs a 6.5-win-total Browns team whose entire QB depth chart is sack-prone or turnover-prone (Sanders 9.8% sack / 4.7% INT rate in 2025; Gabriel 9.3% sack; Flacco 3.8% INT) — a premium floor-and-ceiling spot in the one week every drafted DST must start.
- The ball-production machine wasn't pure luck: Campanile's disguise-heavy hybrid produced 107 passes defensed and 22 INTs, the regressed projection (~24 takeaways) is still comfortably above the ~22 league mean — and Travis Hunter taking a bigger CB role (GM-signaled, June 2026) adds a first-pick-caliber ball-skills talent the 2025 unit never had. In a turnover-weighted league table, this profile re-rates immediately.
Bear case
- You're buying the two noisiest columns at their all-time franchise tick: 31 takeaways and 4 defensive/return TDs from a core that managed 9 takeaways the season before — regression here isn't a prior, it's this team's own recent history — sitting on a rush that ranked 14th in PRWR and 4.53% in sack rate (concern band), with the pressure manufactured by a near-doubled blitz rate rather than a dominant front.
- The takeaway engine was poached in March: Lloyd (team-high 5 INT, the pick-six), Newsome, and Wingard are gone, and the replacement thesis is a two-way rookie coming off knee surgery whose snap split is explicitly unsettled — the INT column loses its top producers in exactly the season it was already due to fall.
- The pick buys one startable week: after the CLE opener, weeks 2–5 run @DEN (9.5 WT, Nix 3.5% sack rate), NE (10.5 WT), @CIN (9.5 WT, healthy Burrow), PHI-in-London (10.5 WT) — a stretch where free waiver units (TB vs CLE wk 2, CHI vs NYJ wk 4, NYJ vs CLE wk 5) profile better, while the round-11 cost was Goedert, Brooks, or Jennings — startable skill players every week.
Projection & comps
Bottom-up, standard DST scoring (assumed table above), 17 games:
| Component | Floor (p20) | Median | Ceiling (p80) | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opp. dropbacks | ~680 | ~700 | ~715 | 2025: ~706 (32 sacks ÷ 4.53% — def_summary, pulled 2026-07-07); win total drifted 9.5 → 8.5 (BetMGM 2026-05-20 → DraftKings June 2026), fewer lead-driven opponent dropbacks than 13-4 produced |
| Sack rate → sacks | 4.4% → 30 | 5.0% → 35 | 5.7% → 41 | Pressure 23.8% (good band, team-profile method) held on full edge continuity; conversion 19.0% (4.53 ÷ 23.8) regressed up toward the ~21% mean — the 2×2 buy cell (good pressure, low sacks) claws back ~3 sacks, but the rush talent base (PRWR 38%, 14th) caps the ceiling |
| Takeaways → pts | 19 → 38 | 24 → 48 | 29 → 58 | 2025: 31 (1.82/gm) regressed ~50% toward 1.3/gm ≈ 1.56/gm, then trimmed for Lloyd (5 INT) + Newsome departures → ~1.4/gm ≈ 24 (≈15 INT/9 FR). The in-house noise proof: same core produced 9 takeaways in 2024 (def_summary). Never project a 28+ season to repeat (dst.md §1) |
| Def/return TDs → pts | 1 → 6 | 2 → 12 | 3 → 18 | Base rate 1.5–2.5 per dst.md §1. 2025 actual: 4 (Lloyd 99-yd + A. Johnson 59-yd pick-sixes, 2 P. Washington punt-return TDs — jaguars.com season review, Jan 2026) — a −12 pt haircut the market at DST7 hasn't fully applied |
| PA/gm → bracket pts | ~22 → 17 | ~20.5–21 → 23 | ~19.5 → 28 | 2025: 19.76 (8th) rode a +13 TO differential and a 6th-in-PROE offense; TO-luck reversal pushes brackets down a band even with the same personnel. Own offense stays good (Lawrence yr 2 under Coen) — holds the floor |
| Safeties | 0 | 1 → 2 | 1 → 2 | League base rate |
| Season total | ~92 (5.4/gm) | ~120 (7.1/gm) | ~147 (8.6/gm) | Floor ≈ DST20+; median ≈ DST9–13 (2025 scale: DST10 = 127, DST12 = 118 — FantasyPros); ceiling ≈ a 2025 repeat (DST3 = 144) requiring the takeaway/TD spike to hold twice |
Sanity check on the build: 2025 actuals reconstruct as 32 sacks + 62 takeaway pts + 24 TD pts + ~25 bracket pts ≈ 144 actual (FantasyPros) — the model reproduces last season, then the regression does the rest.
Games/startability risk: medium. Driver: not injury — the schedule cliff (weeks 2, 4, 5 are likely stream-away spots, so the round-11 pick rides the bench in the window it was bought for) plus dependence on takeaway variance for its weekly ceiling. Edge-room continuity (Hines-Allen + Walker + Gardeck, DC year 2) keeps it off high; a duo injury flips it there (tripwire #4).
Comps (profile: takeaway/return-TD-spike DST3 finish on a mid pressure base, repriced the next summer):
- JAX 2024 → 2025 itself, run backward — the same core swung 9 → 31 takeaways in one season; the eval simply refuses to bet the coin lands on 31 again. This is the cleanest evidence in the whole file and it's in-house (def_summary, both seasons).
- IND 2021 → 2022 — league-leading takeaway season on a non-elite rush, fell to mid-pack DST the following year (directional; totals UNVERIFIED).
- NE 2019 → 2020 — the takeaway/TD-built DST1 that fell out of the startable tier the next season once the turnover column normalized (directional; totals UNVERIFIED).
- MIA 2020 → 2021 — league-leading takeaways roughly halved year-over-year; the fantasy finish followed (directional; totals UNVERIFIED).
- DAL 2021 → 2022 (the contrast comp) — a 30+ takeaway DST1 that *held* value, because elite pressure (Parsons) insured the regression. JAX's 14th-place PRWR is precisely the insurance this profile lacks.
Signal core (dst.md §2)
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | Band / read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pressure rate | 27.9% charted-dropback method (nflverse participation, computed 2026-07-07); 30th on ESPN pressure-% basis (Black and Teal citing ESPN, ~July 2025) | 23.8% all-opp-dropback method (team profile, computed 2026-07-07); 28.9% charted-dropback method — same-method trend flat yr/yr | Good, not elite (23–26 band). Basis discrepancy flagged: charting-based runs hot vs ESPN. Signal: stable, mid-to-good, one year old |
| Sack rate | 5.14% (34 sacks — def_summary 2024) | 4.53% (32 sacks — def_summary) | Concern (<5.5%) both years — the duo eats (18.5 combined) but nobody else does (next-most: Maason Smith 3.0 — Black and Teal, 2025) |
| PRWR (ESPN) | Dead last (Black and Teal citing ESPN, ~July 2025) | 38%, rank 14 (ESPN win rates, 2026-01-06) | Mid — at the <38% concern boundary. One year of mid-pack rush talent, not a two-year base; the 2025 jump is Campanile scheme + health, not proven talent |
| Pressure→sack conversion | ~18.4% (5.14 ÷ 27.9, charted basis) | ~19.0% (4.53 ÷ 23.8, profile basis) | Below the ~21% mean two straight years → regress up — the one column that points in JAX's favor (~+3 sacks) |
| Takeaways/gm | 0.53 (9: 6 INT/3 FR — def_summary) | 1.82 (31: 22 INT/9 FR — def_summary; franchise record) | The 2×2 trap cell: elite takeaways on a mid rush (dst.md §9 red flag). 0.53 → 1.82 in one year with the same edges *is* the regression argument |
| Blitz rate | 16.3% (charted method, pre-Campanile) | 27.7% (charted; team profile: 27.9%) | Below the 32% boom/bust line, but the near-doubling shows the pressure is scheme-manufactured — Flores-style sim pressures, not a dominant 4-man rush |
| Man/zone | 59.2% / 40.8% (prior staff) | 25.8% / 74.2% (zone-leaning) | Matchup input for /weekly-edge; full scheme flip under Campanile — 2024 coverage stats void |
| Opp. implied PPG, wks 1–4 | — | ~17 est. (CLE, 6.5 WT) / ~24 est. (@DEN, 9.5 WT) / ~23 est. (NE, 10.5 WT) / ~24 est. (@CIN, 9.5 WT) — no posted game lines yet; estimates from DraftKings win totals, June 2026 (UNVERIFIED as lines) | One elite week, then concern band — weeks 2–5 opponents all carry win totals ≥9.5 |
| EPA/play allowed | +0.127 (bottom-tier — def_summary) | −0.080 (top-8 range — def_summary) | Real one-year improvement; how much is scheme vs TO luck is the open question the price answers wrong |
| PA/gm | 25.59 | 19.76 (8th) | Improved — but ridden on +13 TO diff and a top-6-PROE offense; treat as output, not input (dst.md §1) |
| Base-rate xFP | — | rebuilt ≈ 120 std pts ≈ DST9–13 | Priced DST7 — the two-to-five-spot gap, at a round-11 cost, is the verdict |
2×2 read (dst.md §2): low sacks on good pressure = buy the sack column (mildly — worth ~3 sacks of positive regression). But the *finish* wasn't built on sacks; it was built on the takeaway/TD columns, which sit in the classic sell cell: elite takeaways + 4 non-offensive TDs on a 14th-PRWR rush. The +3 sacks claw back roughly a quarter of the ~26 points the takeaway/TD regression removes.
Context (team profile: data/team-profiles/JAX.md, built 2026-07-07)
- Continuity, the genuine green flag: Campanile returns for year 2 (
dc_new: false— 2025 scheme stats valid; jaguars.com, Jan 2026), running the Fangio-structure/Flores-chaos hybrid (Match Quarters, 2025). The entire edge room is back — Hines-Allen, Walker (kicks inside on passing downs), Gardeck re-signed 2 yrs (ESPN FA tracker, Mar 2026). No install drag in the weeks 1–4 window. - But the ball-production infrastructure thinned: LB Devin Lloyd (team-high 5 INT, 99-yd pick-six) to CAR 3yr/$45M; CB Greg Newsome II to NYG; S Andrew Wingard to ARI (team profile / Black and Teal tracker, Mar 2026). Montaric Brown re-signed as the outside starter (team-high 12 PD), Jourdan Lewis holds the slot, and Travis Hunter shifts toward more CB snaps in 2026 (GM Gladstone via CBS Sports, June 2026) — a blue-chip ball-skills addition, but off Nov 2025 LCL surgery and still part-time on offense; promise, not production.
- Own offense (§5 multiplier): good. Lawrence enters year 2 under Coen off a career year (4,007/29/12 — nflverse passing.csv), same OL (5 returning bodies, PBWR 9th), 6th in PROE, 66.2 plays/gm (team profile). No short-field bleed into the brackets; a positive-script lean supports opponent dropback volume. Watch: win total drifted 9.5 (BetMGM, 2026-05-20) → 8.5 (DraftKings via RotoWire, June 2026) — the market expects real regression from 13-4.
- Run defense is a fantasy no-op: #1 vs the run (85.6 ypg) and 31st in ESPN run-stop win rate (ESPN, 2026-01-06) barely register in DST scoring either way (dst.md §3).
- Market context: DST7 at 129.9, mid-DST-run — SEA 98.2, DEN 100.8, LAR 104.6, HOU 107.0, NE 118.5, PHI 126.3 ahead; MIN 135.4, DET 139.1, PIT 148.4 behind (FFC, 2026-07-07). The methodology default is a week-1-favorable unit in the last 1–2 rounds; round 11 is not that.
Early-season streaming picture (weeks 1–6) — handoff for /weekly-edge
Schedule: jaguars.com 2026 schedule release / ESPN (May 2026, verified 2026-07-07). No game lines posted yet for weeks 1–6 (checked 2026-07-07); implied totals are win-total-based estimates, UNVERIFIED as lines. QB rates from data/stats/2025/passing.csv (sack rate = sacks ÷ (att + sacks)).
| Wk | Opp | Venue | Opp win total (DK, June 2026) | Opp QB (2025 sack / INT rate) | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs CLE | Home | 6.5 (+105/−120) | Unsettled: Sanders (9.8% / 4.7%), Gabriel (9.3% / 1.1%), Watson, Flacco (5.3% / 3.8% w/ CLE) — Kalshi: Watson 59% / Sanders 36%; Polymarket recently flashed Flacco (fetched 2026-07-07) | Premium — the week the pick buys. Every candidate QB is sack- or turnover-prone; est. implied ≤18 |
| 2 | @ DEN | Road | 9.5 (−115/−105) | Bo Nix (3.5% / 1.8%) | Stream away — road, altitude, low-sack QB |
| 3 | vs NE | Home | 10.5 (+125/−150) | Drake Maye (8.7% / 1.6%, 47 sacks taken) | Coin flip — implied total fails the ≤20 anchor, but real home sack equity |
| 4 | @ CIN | Road | 9.5 (−140/+115) | Burrow (6.2% / 1.9%, healthy) | Stream away — road vs a top-10 implied total |
| 5 | vs PHI | London (Tottenham; JAX home designation UNVERIFIED) | 10.5 (+105/−125) | Hurts (6.6% / 1.3%) | Stream away — neutralized venue, elite offense |
| 6 | vs HOU | London (Wembley; JAX home designation UNVERIFIED) | 9.5 (−125/+105) | Stroud (5.2% / 1.9%) | Coin flip — neutral site, mid matchup |
Likely-available pivots (FFC 2026-07-07; CLE early schedule via ESPN, fetched 2026-07-07): DET (139.1) opens home vs NO — a comparable week-1 premium a round cheaper (per denver-broncos-dst.md card). TB (undrafted, outside the top-15 DST ADPs) hosts CLE in week 2 — a free direct replacement for JAX's @DEN week. CHI (166.0) gets home NYJ in week 4 (18.5 implied per chicago-bears-dst.md) — covers the @CIN week. NYJ (undrafted) hosts CLE in week 5; PIT (148.4) visits CLE in week 4. The pattern: everything JAX's early card lacks after week 1 is available for nothing — which is most of the FADE.
Tripwires (re-run this eval if any fire)
- League DST table gets filled in — if it lands turnover-inflated (turnovers ≥3, or the §7 test passes at DST1−DST12 ≥ 2.5 PPG re-scored), JAX's above-mean regressed takeaway projection re-rates and the verdict likely moves to HOLD at this price.
- ADP slides past ~142 (round 12+, behind DET/MIN) — flips to TARGET: the best week-1 card on the board at dart cost, with the streaming plan pre-written above.
- Josh Hines-Allen or Travon Walker injury/holdout in camp — the duo is 18.5 of 32 sacks with no third rusher behind them (next-most 3.0); either loss guts the pressure base and moves this to AVOID at any drafted price.
- CLE week 1 clarity that degrades the opener — a posted CLE implied total above ~20, or a veteran acquisition that stabilizes the QB room; the premium week is half the remaining value at this price.
- Hunter camp reports as full-time CB1 with elite ball-production buzz (bull tripwire) — materially offsets the Lloyd/Newsome INT losses and softens the takeaway-regression leg; re-check the median.
Sources
data/stats/2025/def_summary.csv,data/stats/2024/def_summary.csv— nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07 (2025: 32 sacks/4.53%, 22 INT/9 FR = 31 TO, PA 19.76, EPA −0.080; 2024: 34 sacks/5.14%, 6 INT/3 FR = 9 TO, PA 25.59, EPA +0.127)data/stats/2025/participation.csv,data/stats/2024/participation.csv— nflverse, pulled 2026-07-07 (charted-dropback method computed 2026-07-07: pressure 27.9% → 28.9%, blitz 16.3% → 27.7%, man 59.2% → 25.8%; team-profile all-dropback method 2025: pressure 23.8%, blitz 27.9%, man 25.4%)data/stats/2025/passing.csv— nflverse, pulled 2026-07-07 (opponent QB sack/INT rates: Sanders, Gabriel, Flacco, Nix, Maye, Burrow, Hurts, Stroud)data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv— FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07 (JAX DST 129.9 = DST7; skill range: Mason 126.7, Goedert 128.9, Brooks 129.6, Andrews 130.0, Jennings 130.7; pivots MIN 135.4, DET 139.1, PIT 148.4, CHI 166.0)data/team-profiles/JAX.md— built 2026-07-07 (Campanile yr 2, scheme rates, edge/CB personnel moves, own-offense quality, win total 9.5 BetMGM 2026-05-20)- ESPN 2025 win-rate rankings, 2026-01-06 (fetched 2026-07-07): JAX PRWR 38% (14th), RSWR 28% (31st), PBWR 68% (9th)
- jaguars.com "10 Statistics That Shaped Jaguars' 2025 Season" (Jan 2026, via search 2026-07-07): 2 defensive TDs (Lloyd 99-yd, A. Johnson 59-yd), 2 P. Washington punt-return TDs, franchise-record takeaways
- Black and Teal (via search 2026-07-07): 2024 ESPN basis — dead-last PRWR, 30th pressure % (~July 2025 article); duo 18.5 combined sacks, next-most Maason Smith 3.0; BR top-5 pass-rush duo ranking
- RotoWire NFL win totals — DraftKings, June 2026 (fetched 2026-07-07): CLE 6.5, DEN 9.5, NE 10.5, CIN 9.5, PHI 10.5, HOU 9.5, JAX 8.5 (drift down from BetMGM 9.5, 2026-05-20)
- jaguars.com / ESPN 2026 schedule release (May 2026, via search 2026-07-07): wks 1–6 = vs CLE, @DEN, vs NE, @CIN, PHI (Tottenham), HOU (Wembley); ESPN CLE schedule (fetched 2026-07-07): CLE @TB wk 2, @NYJ wk 5, @TEN wk 7
- CLE QB market (via search 2026-07-07): Kalshi Watson 59% / Sanders 36%; Polymarket recently Flacco; Grossi odds via Browns Nation — unsettled room
- CBS Sports (June 2026, via team profile/search): Hunter LCL recovery on track, GM-signaled CB emphasis 2026
- FantasyPros 2025 NFL DST statistics (fetched 2026-07-07): JAX DST3, 144.0 pts (8.5 PPG); SEA DST1 179, HOU DST2 164, DEN DST4 143, LAR DST5 136, DST12 NO 118
evaluations/players/2026/denver-broncos-dst.md,chicago-bears-dst.md(2026-07-07): assumed-table inflation test (DST1−DST12 = 61 pts), DET wk-1 vs NO and CHI wk-4 vs NYJ (18.5 implied) pivot cards