Mark Andrews

Mark Andrews (TE, BAL) — 2026 evaluation

Verdict

TARGET (medium confidence) at ADP 130.0 (FFC PPR, 2026-07-07 — TE13, ~round 11 in 12-team). The market is pricing 2025's box score — which was suppressed by a three-TE rotation (Likely + Kolar combined for 73.7% of team dropbacks on-field) and 4–5 backup-QB starts — instead of the 2026 role: the entire TE route competition left for NYG/LAC with only day-3 capital added, the offense projects top-5 (11.5 win total), and Andrews still posted TE1 in ESPN's Open Rate with a top-10 end-zone-target role seven seasons running. At a streamer price, you're buying the only established pass-catching TE on a Lamar Jackson offense; the bear case (aging sub-streamer, droppable) costs a round-11 pick, while the realistic bull case is a mid-TE1. This is a punt-tier role bet with an elite trait (end-zone role), not a dead-zone trap — the asymmetry, not the median, drives the verdict.

Projection & comps

Bottom-up: ~62 plays/g × 53% dropback rate ≈ 560 dropbacks / ~476 att (team profile, 2026-07-07). Median: route share rebounds ~63% → ~72% (TE room cleared) ≈ 400 routes × 0.20 TPRR ≈ 80–82 targets; yards/target rebound 6.0 → 7.5 (career ~8.3, 2024: 9.8); TDs anchored to xTD ≈ 5.5–6.5 from a 13-RZ-target/top-10-end-zone role — not to 2024's 11 (that was the TD-luck year; 2025's 5 was roughly at expectation, so no hidden-value bump either way).

Sanity check: FantasyPros/Fitzmaurice projects 597 yds / 6 TD (2026-06-30) — matches the median. No data/projections/ directory exists; no other external projection on file.

Games risk: medium — 17/17 games in both 2024 and 2025 (nflverse), no current injury (Sleeper, 2026-07-07; "body feels really good" — SI, June 2026), but age-31 TE gets the te.md §9 games-risk bump.

Comps (aging former-elite TE, top-2 hierarchy, run-lean offense, TD-driven): Travis Kelce 2025 (11.4 PPG), Dallas Goedert 2025 (12.3 PPG, 15 gm), Zach Ertz 2024 WAS (10.2 PPG), Hunter Henry 2025 (10.5 PPG), Mark Andrews 2024 (11.1 PPG — the ceiling case with TD luck).

Usage profile (te.md §2 table)

All nflverse numbers computed from data/stats/ (pulled 2026-07-07). "RP proxy" = share of team dropbacks on the field (includes block/chip snaps, so true RP is lower).

Supporting reads: NGS avg separation 2.91 (2025) vs 3.57 (2024) and YAC-over-expected −0.41 in 2025 (nflverse NGS) — the §9 decline fingerprint (YAC first). Counterweights: ESPN Open Rate TE1 and Fantasy Points separation win rate TE6 in 2025, plus one of only two TEs (with Bowers) to hit 20+ mph as a ballcarrier (Fantasy Life, 2026-06-21). The athleticism decline is not clean-cut. The ~10-point gap between pass-snap share (72.8%) and reported route share (~63%) implies meaningful chip/block work under Monken — void under the new staff, but it's the tripwire to watch. A claimed 2025 midseason YPRR/TPRR surge (1.77→2.31) surfaced in search results contradicts the nflverse season line and appears to be 2024 data — discarded as UNVERIFIED.

Context (data/team-profiles/BAL.md, 2026-07-07)

• Regime reset, stability low: first-time play-caller Declan Doyle (Ben Johnson/Sean Payton tree, ex-DEN TE coach) — a structurally TE-friendly tree (Johnson's DET fed LaPorta; Payton's "joker" history), but zero play-calling history = everything low-confidence, install drag early. Doyle on Andrews: "one of the hardest workers on offense" (baltimoreravens.com, June 2026).
• Offense quality: 11.5 win total (DK, 2026-07-01), positive script — clears te.md §5's offense-quality bar easily.
• QB: Lamar Jackson, elite MOF thrower, medium games risk (13 gms 2025). His 2025 absences (Huntley starts) compressed the pass game Andrews lives in.
• Volume is the cap: ~28 pass att/g projected — bottom-third. High TPRR × low volume is the one-TE-feeding pattern (te.md §5), and Andrews is now that one TE.
• PA rate: projected high (Johnson-tree, under-center PA) — the receiving-Y archetype's best friend.
• 12 personnel: BAL ran 2+ TE on 45.2% of plays in 2025 (computed from participation.csv) — those routes went to Likely (267 dropbacks on-field, 50.1%) and Kolar (126, 23.6%). Both gone; 2026 TE2 room is Durham Smythe (blocking vet), Matthew Hibner (R4), Josh Cuevas (R5, blocker). The unique TE tax was ~394 competing on-field dropbacks; it just got repealed.
• Competition: hierarchy Flowers (1) → Andrews (2) → Bateman (3). ~102 vacated targets (25%), highest arriving claim a R3 outside WR (Lane) — no slot/MOF threat added. Andrews re-signed 3yr/$39.3M ($25.9M gtd) Dec 2025 — the team paid him as the answer.
• OL: interior rebuilt (rookie R1 guard, journeyman C) — early-season pressure spikes could mean more TE chip work (§5 double jeopardy); tackles are strong.

Archetype: receiving Y / former big slot, aging — TE1-capable in a high-PA scheme, scheme-dependent, auto-recheck on OC change (this year). Not a year-3/breakout pattern; this is a role-restoration bet at age 31, which §9 says needs camp verification of the role — early reports are positive but pre-pads.

Positional scarcity placement (te.md §7)

• Assumed scoring has no TE premium → punt-default league; elite tier (McBride 27.6, Bowers 35.1) is a pay-up decision that doesn't involve Andrews.
• 2025 streamer baseline: TE12 season-long PPG = 10.6 (Juwan Johnson, weekly.csv) + 0.5–1.0 streaming ≈ 11.1–11.6 PPG (note: 2025 was a historically deep TE year; baseline may regress toward ~10.5).
• Andrews: median 9.1 PPG (−2 vs baseline), ceiling 11.3 (≈ baseline to +0.5, more with a TD spike). Punt tier: "one elite trait or a role bet" — he has both (end-zone pedigree + cleared TE room). At pick 130 that's the correct tier price; he is explicitly not a dead-zone trap (not a round-5–8 cost) and not pay-up-worthy. Portfolio action per §7: draft him as TE1a in the double-punt build, pair with a second late TE, stream/upgrade if the role doesn't materialize by October.

Tripwires (re-run on any)

• TE2 role grows: camp/preseason reports of Hibner or Smythe running with the 1s in passing situations, or a veteran receiving-TE addition.
• Alignment/blocking shift: camp reports Andrews heavy inline with expanded blocking/chip work, or preseason route share <65%.
• Lamar situation escalates: extension standoff becomes a holdout, trade request, or injury — the eval's offense-quality multiplier dies with it.
• Price moves: ADP inside ~pick 105 or TE10 — the punt-tier asymmetry is the thesis; at a round-8–9 price this flips toward HOLD/FADE.
• Soft-tissue injury in camp (age-31 recurrence risk per scoring-framework §4).