Don't Look at My Team

Devontez "Tez" Walker — WR, BAL (2026)

Scoring note: The evaluator brief said to assume full PPR with 4pt pass TD, but methodology/league-settings.md was updated with confirmed values dated 2026-07-08: half-PPR (0.5/rec), 6pt pass TD, no TE premium. Per the setup contract (league-settings is read first and governs), this eval projects in half-PPR. Half-PPR mildly *helps* his relative case — a TD-dependent deep threat loses less to the reception discount than slot volume profiles do. Full-PPR equivalents: add ~0.5 × receptions (≈ +5/+12/+19 to floor/median/ceiling).

Verdict

TARGET (medium confidence) at a price of zero — last-round dart / first-week watchlist add, judged against an undrafted ADP (absent from FFC PPR ADP; Sleeper search-rank tail 999, both 2026-07-07). The market's case is fair: a 2024 fourth-rounder with 9 career targets across two seasons, buried behind Flowers/Bateman/Hopkins, is normally a roster clog. Why the market is wrong: the staff that buried him (Harbaugh/Monken) is gone; the new regime's own communications repeatedly single Walker out as the spring winner *over* the team's fresh R3/R4 rookie WRs (baltimoreravens.com, 2026-07-01; SI Ravens, 2026-06-16); ~102 targets (~25%) vacated with no arriving claim above Round 3 (team profile, 2026-07-07); and his archetype — 4.36 speed, 24.7 air yds/target — is the literal centerpiece of OC Declan Doyle's stated "explosive-hunting off run action" install. Layer a live contingent path (Bateman, the WR2 above him, played 13 games in 2025 and has a chronic injury history) onto a Lamar Jackson offense with an 11.5 win total, and a free lottery ticket clears the bar. This is a contingent-value/dart verdict, not a starter projection — the median outcome is not weekly-startable in a 12-team league.

Bull case

The burial is regime-specific and the new regime keeps saying his name: outplayed both drafted rookies (R3 Lane, R4 Sarratt) in OTAs/minicamp per the team's own site (2026-07-01) and multiple beats (SI 2026-06-16; heavy.com June 2026) — a role-expansion signal the ADP (undrafted) prices at exactly zero.
Scheme-archetype lock: 9.9-RAS, 4.36-speed vertical X in an offense whose first-time play-caller's stated pillar is explosive shots off run action, attached to the NFL's best deep-ball QB and ~102 vacated targets. His three career splash plays (6-136-3 on 8 targets, 24.5 aDOT) are exactly the play Doyle wants to mass-produce.
Free contingent value: Bateman has played 12, 13 and 13 games in three of his five seasons (13 in 2025 — nflverse; injury history per profile) and Walker is the spring-confirmed next man up outside. One soft-tissue injury converts Walker into an every-down field-stretcher for Lamar on an 11.5-win offense — the Christian Watson 2025 / Alec Pierce 2024 outcome band (~115–143 half-PPR) — at a cost of nothing.

Bear case

Nine career targets in two seasons. Day-3 capital with zero NFL usage proof is the exact profile the pedigree doc says to treat as noise; year-3 is where the capital prior expires. He couldn't beat out 33-year-old DeAndre Hopkins for routes as recently as December.
The math caps the hit scenario: ~28 team pass att/g behind a 29%-TS alpha and a top-2 TE means even a cleanly-won WR3 job projects to ~45 targets at aDOT 15+ — a boom/bust FLEX-at-best line (Slayton/Wicks band, ~60–80 half-PPR) with a fragile weekly floor and 3+ zero-point weeks. Deep-threat archetype = only playable on spike weeks you can't predict.
The battle is genuinely contested and he's the guy without draft-capital protection: the org spent R3 + R4 picks on this room three months ago; if camp/preseason flips to Lane or Sarratt, Walker is a special-teamer again — his 2025 floor — and cutting him costs the roster spot you spent. Soft-tissue history (oblique, groin 2025) adds camp-availability risk to a player who must win reps in August.

Projection & comps

Bottom-up, half-PPR, from team profile volume (62 plays/g, ~33 dropbacks/g, ~28 pass att/g → ~500 team routes; BAL.md 2026-07-07):

Percentile	Role scenario	Routes	Targets	Line	Half-PPR pts
Floor (20th)	Loses WR3 battle to Lane/Sarratt; decoy + special teams (his 2025)	~120	~18	10-190-2	~35
Median (50th)	Wins WR3; rotational field-stretcher in a run-first, condensed offense (TPRR ~0.15, CR ~55% at aDOT 15+)	~300	~45	25-430-4	~78
Ceiling (80th)	Bateman misses time or is out-played; Walker holds an every-down outside role for 8+ weeks	~430	~70	38-720-6	~130

TD anchor: xTD-based, not his 2025 actuals — 3 TD on 8 targets (37.5% TD/target) is extreme small-sample noise; deep-target xTD rates support ~0.08 TD/target, which is what the 4/6 TD figures above use. Games risk medium: two 2025 soft-tissue entries (oblique, out wk 6 + scratches; groin listing wk 14 — injuries.csv 2025), but a rotational role limits exposure.

Comp seasons (deep-threat WR3/4 on run-lean offenses; cached nflverse receiving.csv, half-PPR = PPR − 0.5×rec):

Dontayvion Wicks 2025 GB: 46 tgt, 30-332-2 → ~61 (floor–median)
Darius Slayton 2025 NYG: 63 tgt, 37-538-1 → ~80 (median)
Christian Watson 2024 GB: 53 tgt, 29-620-2 → ~91 (median–ceiling)
Christian Watson 2025 GB: 55 tgt, 35-611-6 in 10 g → ~115 (ceiling shape)
Alec Pierce 2024 IND: 69 tgt, 37-824-7 → ~143 (85th-pct+ outcome)

No external projection for Walker exists in data/projections/ (directory not present) — no sanity-check disagreement to log.

Usage profile (2025, with 2024 note)

All 2025 numbers from data/stats/2025/ (nflverse, pulled 2026-07-07) unless noted. Role-change protocol applies (wr.md §4): the 2025 raw totals are void as projection inputs — new play-caller, new role. They matter only as the "no NFL usage proof" bear exhibit.

Metric	2025 value	Band	Read
Target share	2.0% (8 of ~407)	Concern	Buried WR5/6; 39-target WR3 job (Hopkins') now vacated
TPRR	~0.13 (8 tgt / 61 routes, SI 2026-06-16; 0.15 on 52-route participation proxy)	Concern	Sample far below any signal threshold
Route participation	~12% (61 routes vs ~490 team dropbacks); fewer routes than the return specialist	Concern	Gate metric; the entire 2026 thesis is that this moves, and spring reports say it is moving
Air-yards share	5.8%	Concern	On 8 targets
WOPR	0.07 (1.5×.020 + 0.7×.058)	Concern	Meaningless at this route count
aDOT	24.5 (196 air yds / 8 tgt); SI cites 24.7 air yds/target, ~13-yd avg route depth	—	Purest deep-shot usage on the roster
RZ / end-zone targets	UNVERIFIED (no charting export for a 8-target sample)	—	3 TD on 8 targets = noise, not role
xFP	UNVERIFIED (no provider xFP in `data/raw/`)	—	Usage-based expectation in 2025 was trivially small (<40 pts)
Efficiency flash	6/8 for 136 (17.0 y/t); 2024: 1 rec, 21-yd TD on 3 tgt	—	Perfect-world per-target results, but 9 career targets = zero evidentiary weight (framework §3, level 5)
Snap share	≤28% offense in all games wks 1–17; 73% in wk 18 finale; heavy ST (45–65% most weeks) — snap_counts.csv	Concern	2025 job was special teams

Coverage splits, MOF/boundary mix, drop rate: UNVERIFIED — no charting sample exists at 8 targets. Alignment: outside boundary profile per team profile pecking-order table (BAL.md, 2026-07-07).

Pedigree layer (weighted up because the NFL sample is empty — prospect-pedigree.md): Draft capital R4, pick 113, 2024 (rosters.csv) — day-3, i.e., "needs usage proof; hype without routes is noise," and capital's predictive power is expiring in year 3. Athletic testing: elite — RAS ~9.9, 4.36 forty, 40.5" vertical, 11'2" broad at 6'0.5"/193 (ras.football / nflcombineresults via web, 2024 combine, fetched 2026-07-08). College: NC Central → Kent State (2022: 58-921-11, led MAC in rec TD, age-21 breakout) → UNC 2023 (41-699-7 in 8 games after the NCAA eligibility fight cost him four; Sports-Reference/NFL.com via web, 2026-07-08). Age-21 G5 breakout = mediocre production profile; the athletic profile is the elite half. Net: workout-warrior-leaning pedigree that needed a route-participation trigger — which is exactly what 2026 spring reporting supplies.

Context (from data/team-profiles/BAL.md, built 2026-07-07)

Regime reset: Harbaugh fired 2026-01-06; HC Jesse Minter, OC Declan Doyle (first-time play-caller, Ben Johnson/Payton tree). Stated identity: run-first, under-center PA, motion, "explosive" shot plays off run action — mid/high-aDOT shots are the scheme's featured passing concept, i.e., Walker's one skill. Every 2025 usage pattern is void; stability low.
Volume: ~62 plays/g, ~53% dropback, ~28 pass att/g projected — a bottom-quartile passing-volume environment. This caps everyone below Flowers/Andrews; a won WR3 job here is a ~45-target job.
QB: Lamar Jackson (benching risk none; games risk medium). Elite deep-ball thrower; spring reports already show Lamar-to-Walker deep connections. Huntley contingency compresses aDOT and would gut Walker specifically (profile contingency line).
Hierarchy: 1 Flowers (29% TS) · 2 Andrews · 3 Bateman (38 tgt in 13 g) · then a contested WR3/4 pile: Lane (R3), Walker, Sarratt (R4), Wester on the bubble. Vacated: ~102 targets (~25%), incl. Hopkins' 39 and Likely's 36. Spring result: "Walker was the most impressive of that group during OTAs and mandatory minicamp" and the team site names him among five in line for bigger roles, listing him as the third receiver (baltimoreravens.com, 2026-07-01); SI Ravens (2026-06-16) reports he ate Bateman's first-team reps when Bateman was out and "won't take much for him to get a ramped-up opportunity in 2026."
O-line: tackles strong, interior rebuilt (rookie R1 guard, journeyman C) — profile flags early-season interior pressure that specifically taxes deep-shot timing → temper Weeks 1–4 deep game.
Environment: win total 11.5 (DK, 2026-07-01) → positive scripts, but positive scripts in this offense mean Henry clock-drain, not garbage-time passing.

Tripwires (re-run on any)

Camp battle flips: August beat reports show Lane or Sarratt running ahead of Walker with the first team → verdict collapses to AVOID.
Bateman status change (injury, trade, or Walker outright taking his first-team job) → re-run immediately; ceiling scenario activates and TARGET may strengthen.
Veteran WR added (FA signing or trade before Week 1) → re-run; hierarchy claim voided.
Walker soft-tissue injury in camp (oblique/groin/hamstring recurrence) costing him a week+ of reps → downgrade.
Price stops being zero: ADP rises inside ~pick 180 / he's being drafted in 12-team leagues → re-run; this verdict is only valid at a free/waiver price.

Sources

data/stats/2025/receiving.csv, weekly.csv, snap_counts.csv, injuries.csv, participation.csv, rosters.csv; data/stats/2024/receiving.csv, snap_counts.csv — nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07. Route-participation proxy (52 on-field route plays) computed from participation.csv 2026-07-08; provider-charted figure 61 routes per SI (2026-06-16) used as primary.
data/team-profiles/BAL.md — built 2026-07-07 (regime, hierarchy, vacated-target math, volume projections, win total, OL).
data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv (FFC PPR, 2026-07-07 — Walker absent/undrafted; sleeper-searchrank tail row appended 2026-07-08); data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json (age 25, years_exp 2, depth_chart_order 5, search_rank 999).
SI Ravens (fetched 2026-07-08; pub 2026-06-16) — spring reps, 61 routes 2025, 24.7 air yds/target, Bateman-absence first-team work.
baltimoreravens.com "Five Ravens in Line for Bigger Roles" (fetched 2026-07-08; pub 2026-07-01) — "most impressive of that group during OTAs and mandatory minicamp"; listed third among WRs; 16.1% snap rate 2025.
ras.football / nflcombineresults / NFL.com prospect page / Sports-Reference CFB (via WebSearch 2026-07-08) — RAS ~9.87–9.92, 4.36 forty, 40.5" vert, 11'2" broad; Kent State 2022 58-921-11; UNC 2023 41-699-7 (8 games).
methodology/league-settings.md — half-PPR 0.5/rec, 6pt pass TD, no TE premium (confirmed 2026-07-08). Caller's "assume full PPR" instruction superseded by the confirmed file values; conversion noted above.
UNVERIFIED: RZ/end-zone target counts, coverage splits, MOF/boundary mix, drop rate, provider xFP (no charting sample at 8 targets; no exports in data/raw/).