Adam Randall

Adam Randall (RB, BAL) — 2026 evaluation

Player facts: age 21, turns 22 on 2026-07-14 (Sleeper players export, 2026-07-07; Wikipedia DOB, fetched 2026-07-08). 6'3"/232 (baltimoreravens.com roster + Sleeper 75"/232; RAS page renders height differently — team listing used). Clemson; 2026 R5 #174 to BAL (NFL.com/baltimoreravens.com, April 2026 — famously the first draft pick owner Steve Bisciotti ever made himself). Converted WR: three seasons at wide receiver (2022–24, incl. a spring-2022 ACL tear he returned from that same season), moved to RB permanently for 2025 (Wikipedia/steelersdepot.com, fetched 2026-07-08). Rookie — zero NFL sample; eval is pedigree + contingent-path driven per prospect-pedigree.md.

Verdict — TARGET (medium confidence)

Randall is a free player with a live contingent path: he is the only Henry-shaped body on the roster behind a 32-year-old with 2,662 career regular-season carries, on a run-first offense with an 11.5 win total. Standalone 2026 value is near zero — he must beat Rasheen Ali for RB3 and the beat consensus is "it remains to be seen how the Ravens will find offensive snaps for Randall" (Yahoo camp preview, June 2026). But the rb.md §7 handcuff test scores 2.5 of 3: fragile/aged starter (Henry age 32, three straight 300+ touch seasons — the age SI calls the historical RB cliff), elite offense (11.5 DK win total, ~30 box rush att/g projected), and *plausibly* clean early-down succession — Justice Hill is a locked but capped passing-down specialist on an expiring $3M/yr deal, and Ali (2024 R5) has 7 career carries and lives on special teams. Why the market is wrong: the market reads the depth-chart label (RB4 in July) and prices him at literal zero; the system reads the succession shape — a 9.45 RAS, 113.2 speed-score 232-pounder with 84 career college receptions, drafted into a gap/duo scheme built for exactly his frame, one Henry injury from goal-line and early-down work in the NFL's best rushing environment. At an undrafted price, that asymmetry is a TARGET (last-round dart / top waiver watchlist); this is emphatically not a starter projection.

Projection & comps

Team inputs from data/team-profiles/BAL.md (built 2026-07-07): ~62 plays/g, ~30 box rush att/g (Henry ~18–19, Lamar ~5–6, Hill ~3–4), ~28 pass att/g. RB carry pool ≈ 22–24/g; Henry's 2025 carry share was 60.6% (data/stats/2025/rushing.csv).

• TDs anchored to xTD from role, not talent: goal-line access exists only in the Henry-out scenario (Henry took 16 rush TD in each of 2024 and 2025 — data/stats). Median xTD ≈ 2; ceiling xTD ≈ 6.
• The true league-winner tail (Henry out 8+ games, Randall as a 15-touch bellcow on a top-3 rush offense) sits beyond the 80th percentile and is the entire reason to hold the ticket — Henry's role produced 279.5 PPR in 2025 and 336.4 in 2024 (data/stats/2025, 2024).
• Games-played risk: medium — he is a healthy 21-year-old (post-2022 ACL, fully recovered), but fringe-RB3 healthy-scratch/inactive risk is real if Ali's special-teams value wins gamedays.
• External projections: none in data/projections/ (directory absent as of 2026-07-08) — no sanity-check disagreement to report.

Comps (rookie/contingent seasons, verified locally where possible):

• Ray Davis 2024 (BUF R4 rookie behind Cook): 113-442-3 rush, 17-189-3 rec, 116.1 PPR (data/stats/2024) — the ceiling shape: day-3 rookie carving a role + spiking when the starter sat.
• Jordan Mason 2024 (SF, handcuff hits): 153-789-3, 115.0 PPR in 12 games (data/stats/2024) — what clean early-down succession pays when the starter goes down.
• Braelon Allen 2024 (NYJ rookie, big-back RB2): 92-334-2, 19-148-1, 85.2 PPR (data/stats/2024) — a between-median-and-ceiling outcome with no starter injury.
• Kimani Vidal 2024 (LAC day-3 rookie RB3): 43-155-0, 32.7 PPR (data/stats/2024) — the mundane RB3 outcome, just above floor.
• Gus Edwards 2018 (BAL UDFA big back, emerged midseason): ~137-718-2 — the franchise's own precedent for a big rookie back seizing early-down work; pre-cache season, from training data, UNVERIFIED against local CSVs.

Usage profile — opportunity table

No NFL sample; table filled with college 2025 + projected 2026 role. All NFL cells N/A.

Efficiency (college, one season at RB): 168-814-10 = 4.8 YPC with a 65.1% carry share; +36-254-3 receiving (Sports-Reference/clemsontigers.com via search, fetched 2026-07-08). MTF/touch, YAC/att, RYOE: no NFL data — UNVERIFIED. One year of RB tape is exactly why he cost pick 174.

Pedigree screen (prospect-pedigree.md):

• Draft capital: R5 #174 — day-3: "one bad week from committee regardless of production; require usage proof, not camp hype." The capital gate is the biggest structural knock and caps confidence.
• College receiving: 84 career receptions (10/22/16/36, 2022–25 — Wikipedia, fetched 2026-07-08) — clears the ≥40-reception three-down predictor (rb.md §11) more than 2× over; he was a WR. Fourth Clemson player ever with 750+ rush and 750+ receiving yards (Spiller, Etienne company — TigerNet/clemsontigers.com, fetched 2026-07-08).
• Athletic testing: RAS 9.45 (127th of 2,306 RBs since 1987): size 9.99 "elite", explosion 8.63 "great", speed 8.30 "good"; official 4.50 forty at 232 → 113.2 speed score, 3rd in the 2026 RB class (ras.football + theclemsoninsider.com combine coverage, fetched 2026-07-08). Per pedigree §3, testing separates ceiling among equal-capital backs — his is the class's outlier size-speed combo.
• Age curve: turns 22 in camp; one year of RB mileage (172 college carries total) — the odometer is nearly untouched. He will hit any year-2/3 opportunity years from the cliff.
• Production context: only one season of RB production, at age 21, with a 65.1% carry share and 10 TD on a playoff team — good, not dominant (4.8 YPC). Pedigree is capital-weak / traits-strong: exactly the profile that goes R5 and then outplays the pick or vanishes.

Context (data/team-profiles/BAL.md, built 2026-07-07)

• Regime: everything new — HC Minter, first-time play-caller OC Declan Doyle (Ben Johnson/Payton tree), stability rated low. Doyle's stated identity: run-game-first, "physical, detailed, explosive," projected gap/duo-leaning scheme that "fits big downhill backs (Henry ideal); goal-line hammers, contact-balance grinders" — Randall is the only other back on the roster matching that description. Minicamp note: OL run blocking "created paths to the second level on zone concepts for Henry, Randall and Hill" (baltimoreravens.com minicamp coverage, June 2026) — he is getting real team-period run reps.
• The incumbent: Derrick Henry — age 32 (the age SI's 55-year study calls terminal for productive RBs — si.com, fetched 2026-07-08), 2,662 career REG carries + ~195 receptions ≈ ~2,860 REG touches (PFR via search, fetched 2026-07-08; 2024–25: 325 and 307 carries verified in data/stats), signed through 2027, 300+ touches three straight seasons. Historically iron-durable — that is priced into the floor/median; the age-32 + mileage base rate is priced into the ceiling.
• Backfield committee: Henry (early downs + goal line, 60.6% carry share) · Hill (passing downs, 2yr/$6M through 2026 — Spotrac/OTC, fetched 2026-07-08; a ~$3M/yr specialist contract = "committee/insurance," not a featured-role claim per rb.md §9) · Ali vs Randall for RB3, contested (team profile + ESPN/baltimoreravens.com depth charts, fetched 2026-07-08). Ali's 2025: 7 carries, 11 targets, ~55–70% ST snaps most weeks (data/stats/2025) — a special-teamer, not a runway blocker. Keaton Mitchell (59 carries) departed to LAC → ~59 carries vacated to the RB3 winner + Henry.
• Game script: win total 11.5 (DK, 2026-07-01 — steamed up from 10.5) → positive scripts frequent; this is the good-offense leg of the handcuff test. Note the standalone catch: positive script feeds *Henry*, not the RB3.
• Pass protection: one year at RB; no college pass-pro grade found — UNVERIFIED. Per rb.md §9 this gates any passing-down work; assume Hill keeps two-minute/third down all season and treat any preseason report of Randall in those packages as an upgrade trigger.
• Special teams: 9 KO returns, 213 yds at Clemson in 2025; return ability is his roster-spot insurance vs Ali (baltimoreravens.com "5 Things", April 2026).

Committee 2×2 placement (rb.md §7): low standalone / high contingent = handcuff lottery ticket quadrant. Three-factor test: fragile-aged starter ✓ (32, ~2,860 touches) · good offense ✓ (11.5 win total, top-3 rush volume) · clean succession partial — Hill can't absorb early-down volume at 200 lbs and Ali has no capital claim, but Randall hasn't beaten Ali yet and a Henry injury likely opens as a committee before Randall consolidates it. The partial third factor is what separates this from a league-winner quadrant and what keeps confidence at medium.

Tripwires (void this eval and re-run)

• Loses the RB3 battle to Rasheen Ali — camp pecking order, preseason usage with the 2s, Week 1 inactives. Ali winning = downgrade to AVOID (roster-clog quadrant).
• Any Henry injury/absence news (including camp maintenance patterns) — immediate re-run; Randall becomes a priority add before the market reacts.
• BAL adds veteran RB capital (FA signing or trade for a between-the-tackles back) — kills the succession-clarity leg.
• Preseason pass-pro/passing-down evidence either way — Randall running two-minute or third-down packages ahead of Ali (or ever ahead of Hill) upgrades the three-down ceiling; a benching-for-blitz-pickup report caps it.
• ADP rises into drafted range (inside ~pick 180 / RB60 on FFC or Sleeper mocks) — the free-asymmetry thesis dies at a real price; re-grade toward HOLD.