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@TB
ARITyler Shough — QB, NO — 2026
Verdict
TARGET (medium confidence) at ADP 149.6 / QB21 (FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07). Shough is a clean hit on the QB year-2 leap screen (rookie CPOE ≥0, retained play-caller, meaningfully upgraded weapons, modest rushing role — qb.md §11 / prospect-pedigree.md §5) priced at a round-13 dart. Why the market is wrong: it is pricing his rookie-year raw season total (QB25-ish points in 11 games) and the "old prospect, no Konami code" archetype, and missing that his nine-start PPG — 17.1 in 4pt scoring, 20.0 over the last five — was already fringe-QB1 *while* his pass-TD rate (3.1%) was artificially crushed by dead-last inside-10 pass tendencies, a traded-away WR2, an injured WR1, and a 29th-ranked pass-blocking line. Usage and yardage are already there; the TD term is the piece most likely to regress upward after New Orleans spent pick 1.08 (Jordyn Tyson), $52M (Travis Etienne), and a Fant/Delp TE infusion on the red-zone problem. At QB21 you pay nothing for any of that. The bear case (worst-in-NFL pressure-to-sack, age-27 season, PROE −2.3%) is real but is exactly what the 149.6 price already charges for.
Bull case
- The year-2 leap screen fires on all four legs (rookie CPOE ≥0, rushing role, retained play-caller, upgraded weapons) at a QB21 price — the most profitable QB buy pattern in the system, and the market's own "sleeper" coverage (Fantasy Life's "this year's Drake Maye") hasn't moved the ADP yet.
- TD regression is one-directional from here: 10 pass TDs on 2,384 yards (3.1%) with dead-last inside-10 pass PROE, no healthy WR1, and no rookie-WR capital — replaced by pick 1.08, a healthy Olave, and a rebuilt TE room. 22+ pass TDs requires only league-average conversion on the same yardage.
- He already produced at the price point's ceiling: 17.1 PPG (4pt) across 9 starts and 20.0 over the final five with +0.159 EPA/dropback and the 7th-most deep completions in the league over that stretch — the finish was efficiency-real, not garbage-time TD luck (only 5 pass TDs in those 5 games).
Bear case
- Worst-in-NFL pressure-to-sack rate (~25%) despite the 7th-lowest pressure rate faced, and worst-in-NFL off-target rate under pressure — QB-owned, sticky traits behind a 29th-PBWR line. If the interior OL doesn't improve, sacks erase drives and the floor projection is generous.
- No Konami floor and no goal-line role: ~19 rush yds/gm, ~3% designed-run rate, rush TDs scored from distance — one bad passing week is a zero-floor week, unlike every dual-threat priced near him. Moore's −2.3% PROE and stated 2026 run/12-personnel emphasis cap the volume upside too.
- Age-27 one-year-wonder pedigree on a 9-start sample: seven college seasons, one good one at 25, two broken collarbones and a broken fibula in the file — the market's ceiling skepticism (CBS: "the ceiling may not be there") is a defensible position, and 9 starts is below every stated efficiency-sample threshold.
Projection & comps
Bottom-up, two components (scoring-framework §2), per-game rates × games, anchored to the team profile's 2026 environment (~65 plays/gm, ~59% dropback rate, ~34 team pass att/gm — data/team-profiles/NO.md, 2026-07-07):
Passing (median): ~560 att (33–34/gm × ~16.5 gm) × 7.4 YPA (7.65 in his 9-start window, haircut for OL and rookie-WR ramp) ≈ 4,145 yds; pass TDs anchored to an xTD-style rate of ~3.9% (his 3.1% actual was environment-suppressed — Moore was dead-last in inside-10 PROE and the 2025 RZ corps was gutted; league norm ~4.3%) ≈ 22 TD; INTs from his elite 1.85% TWP rate, not last year's count ≈ 10 INT.
Rushing (median — projected separately; it is a modest floor, not a Konami floor): ~4.3 real carries/gm (kneel-adjusted; 4.7 nflverse carries/gm as starter) × ~16.5 gm ≈ 70 carries × ~4.6 YPC ≈ 320 yds; rush TDs anchored down to 2.5 — his 3 actual rush TDs came on runs of 34 and 18 yards (nola.com, 2025-12-10) with no evidence of a goal-line/sneak package, so actuals outran expectation.
| Floor (p20) | Median (p50) | Ceiling (p80) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | ~13.5 | ~16.5 | 17 |
| Pass | 3,115 yds / 16 TD / 11 INT | 4,145 yds / 22 TD / 10 INT | 4,505 yds / 27 TD / 9 INT |
| Rush | 230 yds / 1 TD | 320 yds / 2.5 TD | 390 yds / 4 TD |
| Points (4pt) | 205 | 285 | 330 |
Sanity check: median = 17.3 PPG (his actual starter-window PPG was 17.07); ceiling = 19.7 PPG (his last-5 actual was 20.03). ~285 lands in the seasonal QB10–QB13 band most years — vs a QB21 price. No files in data/projections/ to cross-check (checked 2026-07-08).
Games risk: medium — worst-in-NFL pressure-to-sack rate means real hit volume, and his college file includes two broken collarbones and a fractured fibula; but he took every snap W9–W18 with no missed starts, and his 4–5 carries/gm is below the heavy-runner threshold that forces a games-risk bump (qb.md §3).
Comp seasons: Geno Smith 2022 SEA (older "young" breakout, completion-led, 4,282/30/11 + 366 rush yds from a free ADP — the ceiling comp) · Baker Mayfield 2023 TB (post-reset vet in a competent new system, 4,044/28/10, QB10 from QB18 price) · Sam Darnold 2024 MIN (market-ignored starter, upgraded environment, QB9) · Jared Goff 2017 LAR (year-2 leap with retained-caller + weapons infusion, low rushing) · Tua Tagovailoa 2023 MIA (the median-shape warning: high comp%, low rushing, capped weekly ceiling).
Usage profile (qb.md §2 table)
2025 splits: 11 appearances, 9 starts (W9–W18; W3/W8 relief). Starter-window numbers preferred — the relief games are noise. All nflverse-derived stats from data/stats/2025/ (pulled 2026-07-07) unless noted.
| Metric | Value | Band | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rush att/gm | 4.7 as starter (45 car/11 gm total, incl. kneels; ~4.3 real) | Good (4–7) | Real but modest; scramble-weighted |
| Designed rush rate | 13 designed/RPO carries through 7 appearances ≈ ~3% of team plays (nola.com, 2025-12-10) | Below Good (<4%) | Keeper/RPO element live late (W14: 7 car, 55 yds, 2 TD) and Moore endorsed it, but no committed package |
| Scramble rate | 10 scrambles / ~211 dropbacks ≈ 4.7% through 7 appearances (nola.com split ÷ nflverse dropbacks) | Good (3.5–6%) | Trait is real — 19.4 mph on the 34-yd TD |
| Rush yds/gm | 19.3 starter window; 27.0 last 5 | Fringe (20–35 = Good) | Trending up as the offense stabilized |
| RZ rush share / inside-5 carries | UNVERIFIED (play-level data not in cache; no provider page pulled) | — | No reporting of a sneak/goal-line role; Taysom Hill's vacated 52 carries are the speculative path to one |
| Rushing xTD | UNVERIFIED provider value; carry mix implies < the 3 actual (both described TDs from 18+ yds out) | — | Anchor 2026 rush TDs at ~2–3, not 3+ |
| Dropbacks/gm | 36.0 as starter (excl. scrambles) | Good (33–38) | Volume floor is real in a Moore offense (every Moore offense ≥65 plays/gm) |
| Pass att/gm | 32.8 as starter | Good (30–35) | Team profile projects ~34 team att/gm 2026 |
| Team PROE | −2.3% (Roundtable/NBC via team profile, 2026-07-07); dead-last inside-10 pass PROE Wk8–18 | Below Good | The structural cap on pass-TD upside — and the source of the regression-up asymmetry |
| xFP | UNVERIFIED (no provider xFP pulled) | — | Actual 17.1 PPG (4pt) as starter with a suppressed TD rate — usage-based expectation ≈ actual or higher |
Efficiency & talent signal (qb.md §5)
| Metric | Value | Band | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA/dropback | ≈0.00 full season; +0.058 in 9-start window; +0.159 last 5 (nflverse weekly EPA sums). CBS lists −0.12 EPA/play, 29th/33 — different window/denominator; disagreement noted | Concern → Good trend | data/stats/2025/weekly.csv; CBS Sports (retrieved 2026-07-08) |
| CPOE | +0.65 season (NGS); 4th in comp% from W9 | Good (low end) | data/stats/2025/ngs_passing.csv; CBS Sports |
| Pressure-to-sack | ~25%, worst in NFL (only Geno Smith comparable), despite 7th-*lowest* pressure rate faced — i.e., QB-owned, not OL-owned | RED (>24%) | CBS Sports (retrieved 2026-07-08); 31 sacks, 8.7% sack rate (passing.csv) |
| TWP rate | 7 TWP / 378 dropbacks = 1.85%; 13 big-time throws | Elite (<2.5%) | PFF via search (retrieved 2026-07-08) |
| INT ledger vs TWP | 6 INT vs 7 TWP — clean, no luck bomb pending either way | Neutral | PFF + passing.csv |
| aDOT (intended) | 8.29 | Good (7.5–9.5) | ngs_passing.csv |
| Deep ball | Aggressiveness 11.9% (NGS); 16 completions of 15+ air yds in final 5 wks, 7th-most in NFL | Good, late-emerging | ngs_passing.csv; CBS Sports |
| Off-target under pressure | 24.4%, worst in NFL; PFF grade 84.7 clean vs 44.6 pressured | RED | PFF/CBS (retrieved 2026-07-08) |
| Play-action rate | UNVERIFIED | — | — |
| PFF overall | 74.6, 19th of 43 qualified QBs | Good for a rookie | PFF (retrieved 2026-07-08) |
Read: the QB-owned traits split cleanly. Elite decision-making (TWP) and adequate accuracy (CPOE) travel with him; the pressure response (pressure-to-sack, off-target under pressure) is the sticky liability that caps the floor behind a 29th-PBWR line. Archetype: pocket volume passer with a scramble sprinkle — not dual-threat elite, so he never earns an early pick in 1QB; the whole thesis is late-round asymmetry.
Pedigree & age (prospect-pedigree.md)
Rd 2, pick 40 (2025, NO) — day-2 capital bought the runway and Moore cashed it. Turns 27 on 2026-09-28 (Sleeper, 2026-07-07) — the oldest "year-2 breakout" candidate on the board; a seven-year college career (Oregon → Texas Tech → Louisville) with one genuinely good season at age 25 (Louisville 2024) is the classic one-year-wonder-at-23+ flag (prospect-pedigree §2). College injury file: broken collarbone twice, fractured fibula. This doesn't break the thesis — the NFL sample (378 dropbacks, elite TWP, positive CPOE) now outranks the prior per the evidence hierarchy — but it justifies medium, not high, confidence and trims the dynasty/ceiling tail: this is a floor-raising profile, not a superstar lottery ticket (CBS Sports made the same read, retrieved 2026-07-08).
Context (from data/team-profiles/NO.md, built 2026-07-07)
- Job security: locked. Team publicly committed after the 5-4 finish (ESPN, 2026-01-08); took all first-team reps at OTAs/minicamp and is organizing a player-funded San Diego throwing retreat this summer (ESPN/neworleanssaints.com, retrieved 2026-07-08). Backups are tier-C (Rattler vs Zach Wilson battle). No benching-risk triad (qb.md §8): his EPA was not bottom-8 as a starter, there is no high-capital backup, and the regime drafted him.
- Play-caller: Kellen Moore, retained (year 2). Fast pace, high volume — all six Moore offenses ≥65 plays/gm — but run-lean PROE (−2.3%) and extremely run-lean inside the 10. His stated 2026 emphasis (more under-center runs, doubled 12-personnel, feed Etienne) leans *against* raw pass volume, so the passing projection uses ~34 att/gm, not 2025's script-inflated 34.8.
- Weapons: the offseason's biggest QB-adjacent upgrade. 107+ vacated targets were replaced with premium capital: Jordyn Tyson (1.08), Etienne (4yr/$52M), Noah Fant + rd-3 Delp, plus Olave (27.6% TS) cleared from the blood clot that ended his 2025 and Juwan Johnson (102 targets) retained. Watch items: Olave's camp clearance and Tyson's offseason maintenance plan.
- O-line: the weak leg. 29th PBWR in 2025; 4/5 starters return with Edwards added at LG and two recent first-round tackles (Banks/Fuaga). Interacts badly with Shough's worst-in-NFL pressure-to-sack — the interior must be mid-tier for the ceiling case.
- Script: Vegas win total 7.5 (BetMGM, 2026-07-07) — neutral, up from 4.5; less garbage-time tailwind than 2025 but also fewer catastrophic scripts.
Tripwires (re-run this eval if any fire)
- Olave setback (blood-clot recurrence/any camp absence) or Tyson not full-go when camp opens late July — the weapons/TD-regression leg breaks.
- QB reps shared or a competition reopened with Rattler/Wilson at any point — thesis-breaking; drop to AVOID at any price.
- Interior OL bad news (McCoy injury, Edwards losing the LG job to a rookie) — the pressure-to-sack interaction moves floor to ~180.
- ADP rises inside ~pick 110 / QB14 — the free-square asymmetry is gone; re-verdict toward HOLD.
- Moore cedes play-calling to OC Nussmeier or credible camp reports of a bottom-quartile pace plan — volume assumptions void.
Sources
data/stats/2025/passing.csv,rushing.csv,weekly.csv,ngs_passing.csv— nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07 (all splits computed 2026-07-08)data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv— FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07: Shough 149.6, QB21 (Darnold 144.2, Kyler 149.3 just ahead; Stroud 154.9 behind)data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json— age 26 (DOB 1999-09-28), 6'5"/219, Louisville, years_exp 1, depth chart QB1data/team-profiles/NO.md(built 2026-07-07) — play-caller history, PROE −2.3%, inside-10 PROE, OL win rates, vacated-target math, arrivals, win total 7.5, plays/pass-rate projections- ESPN — Saints committed to Shough as 2026 starter (2026-01-08); summer retreat/first-team reps (retrieved 2026-07-08)
- CBS Sports "Year 2 expectations for 2025 rookie QBs" (retrieved 2026-07-08) — EPA/play −0.12 (29/33), pressure-to-sack worst in NFL, 7th-lowest pressure faced, off-target 24.4% pressured, comp% 4th from W9, last-5 deep-completion counts, age/ceiling comment
- PFF (via search, retrieved 2026-07-08) — 74.6 overall grade (19/43), 73.1 passing (17th), 378 dropbacks, 13 BTT, 7 TWP, clean/pressured grade split 84.7/44.6
- nola.com (2025-12-10) — designed/scramble decomposition (13 designed-or-RPO vs 10 scrambles through 7 appearances, excl. kneels), rush-TD distances, Moore run-game quotes, college rushing background
- neworleanssaints.com / Fantasy Life / SI (retrieved 2026-07-08) — offseason program, market sleeper framing
- UNVERIFIED: provider xFP, rushing/passing xTD (provider), RZ/inside-5 carry counts, play-action rate, motion rate — play-level and provider tables not in cache; projection anchors stated where these were approximated
*Note: evaluations/boards/2026/board.md is now stale — run /draft-board update.*