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@INDErick All — TE, CIN — 2026
Verdict
HOLD (low confidence), judged against a mock-undrafted ADP (Sleeper rank tail, 2026-07-08; no FFC PPR appearance in data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv). All is the only player in this deep-pool batch with a genuine NFL earning-rate flash: as a 2024 rookie he caught 20 of 22 targets for 158 yards on a tiny part-time role (16.4% pass-play participation, ~0.19 targets per pass snap — receiving.csv 2024 + participation join, computed 2026-07-08) before tearing his ACL for the second time. He's now "completely healthy" and fully participating in spring work (Cincy Jungle/SI/Yardbarker, May–June 2026, searched 2026-07-08), Noah Fant's 41 targets left the room (team profile, 2026-07-07), and he's entering NFL year 3 — the TE calendar's turn (te.md §9). But the screen misses on capital (2024 R4, not day-2 — "punt-price darts only" per prospect-pedigree.md), the depth chart is unfriendly (bengals.com's June roster reset stacks Gesicki, Sample, Hudson ahead of him, with All "carving out a rotational role"), and the ceiling is capped by the scheme itself: Zac Taylor funnels everything to Chase/Higgins/Brown, and CIN's 2025 TE1 managed 42 targets at a 46.3% route rate. Verdict is HOLD, not TARGET, because at zero cost the profile, tier (deep punt/waiver), and price all agree; it's not AVOID because the injury is healed, the talent flash is real, and a Gesicki injury makes him an immediate waiver watch. Do not draft; track camp.
Bull case
- The rookie tape earned: 20-of-22 (90.9%) with a 0.19 TPRR proxy on a part-time role — te.md's exact "earning without routes" green flag, and both staff and beat expected a real 2-TE role for him before the 2024 tear (Cincy Jungle, 2026).
- He's fully healthy and practicing, says he feels "like a completely different person," and 41 Fant targets just vacated a room with no day-2 blocker in front of him — the route path is contestable in camp (SI/Yardbarker, June 2026).
- Year 3 + elite offense + Burrow's underneath accuracy: if he wins the receiving-TE2 job, the streamer-week path (RZ leak-outs from a top-5 scoring offense) is live immediately.
Bear case
- Two ACL surgeries on the same knee (one a revision of a botched repair) plus a college back surgery — he has not completed a full season since 2022, and games risk is the profile's defining fact.
- bengals.com lists him fourth in his own room, and the room's *first* chair only got 42 targets — a fully healthy, job-winning All still projects below the te.md streamer baseline (~9.3–9.8 half-PPR PPG; TE12 2025 = 8.8, computed from receiving.csv 2026-07-08).
- R4 capital and a 114-pass-snap career sample mean the "talent flash" rests on 22 targets — well under the ~200-route bar te.md requires before trusting efficiency.
Projection & comps
Half-PPR, 6pt pass TD (league-settings.md, confirmed 2026-07-08), bottom-up:
| Floor (p20) | Median (p50) | Ceiling (p80) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Role | knee setback or final-cuts squeeze in a 7-body TE room | rotational TE3/4, ~15% RP | wins the receiving-TE2 job; Gesicki misses time; ~35% RP half the year |
| Volume | ~2 targets | ~22 targets, 17 rec, ~140 yds, 1 TD | ~50 targets, 38 rec, ~330 yds, 3 TD |
| Half-PPR pts | ~0 | ~20 | ~70 |
- 2024 actual (8 games): 22 tgt, 20-158-0, 35.8 PPR = 25.8 half-PPR (receiving.csv 2024). 2025: did not play (no receiving/snap rows — nflverse 2025).
- xTD anchor: near-zero demonstrated end-zone role (0 TD on 22 targets, aDOT ~3.3 — 72 air yards on 22 targets); even the ceiling TD count leans on projection, not usage.
- Games risk: high — two ACL surgeries on the same knee (the college repair was done incorrectly and required revision — Yahoo/SI, 2026) plus a college back surgery; hasn't finished a season since 2022.
- Comp seasons (part-time year-3 receiving TEs returning from injury in TE-starved rooms; characterization): Tanner Hudson 2023 (~39-352, ~55 half-PPR), Drew Sample 2024, Irv Smith Jr. 2023 CIN (fizzle case), Brenton Strange 2024 (40-411-2 breakout-lite = the ceiling shape).
Usage profile (te.md §2 table — 2024 rookie season, CIN, 8–9 games; 2025 = no data)
| Metric | Value | Band | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Route participation | 16.4% of CIN pass plays (114/694) — on-field pass-play proxy | Concern — gate fails | Part-time player; eval capped at streamer/AVOID band on usage (te.md §2). Sample: 114 pass snaps, well under the 200-route trust bar |
| TPRR (proxy) | 0.193 (22 tgt / 114 pass snaps; true TPRR slightly higher net of pass-block snaps) | Good | The green flag: earning ≥0.18 on a part-time role is the te.md §9 breakout ingredient |
| Catch rate / YPRR | 90.9% catch; ~1.39 yds per pass snap (158/114) | Mid | Checkdown-flavored (aDOT ~3.3) but reliable hands |
| Target share | 3.5% (2024) | Concern | Bounded by the role, not the earning |
| RZ / end-zone targets | UNVERIFIED (no charting in data/raw); 0 TD on 22 tgt | Concern | No TD access demonstrated |
| Detached rate / alignment | UNVERIFIED — 2024 usage mixed inline/H-back per game film reports; snap log: 231 off. snaps, 42% avg in 9 games (snap_counts 2024) | — | — |
| Pass-block rate | UNVERIFIED | — | — |
| xFP | usage-implied ≈ 3 PPG (2024 role) | Concern | — |
Breakout screen check (te.md §9 / prospect-pedigree §5): year 3 ✓ · TPRR ≥0.18 part-time ✓ · routes opening (Fant's 41 targets gone) half-✓ · day-2 capital ✗ (R4) · yr-2 RP climbing ✗ (missed the season). Two clean hits, two misses — watch-list, not TARGET.
Age/pedigree: 25 (born 2000-09-13), NFL year 3; 2024 R4 pick out of Iowa (Michigan transfer); college résumé was talent-over-production due to the back/knee injuries (Sleeper cache 2026-07-07; CBS Sports player page, searched 2026-07-08).
Context (from data/team-profiles/CIN.md, updated 2026-07-07, + June 2026 beat)
- The scheme starves TEs: Taylor's target tree is Chase (30.4% TS), Higgins, Chase Brown, Iosivas — CIN TE1 Gesicki got 42 targets at an 8.9% TS in 2025. Even a clean win of the TE room lands in streamer-fringe volume.
- Depth chart (bengals.com roster reset, June 2026): Gesicki (signed through 2027, move/slot TE1), Drew Sample (blocking Y), Tanner Hudson, then All fighting for a rotational role, plus R7 Jack Endries and Cam Grandy. Fant's 41 targets vacated is the one opening; the R7 pick is mild extra competition, not a block.
- Offense quality is elite when Burrow is upright (9.5 win total, ~37 att/gm, top-2 pass tilt) — the multiplier is a plus for whoever runs TE routes; the problem is the share, not the pie.
- Stability high: same caller 8th year, Burrow back, 5/5 OL returning — no scheme-change wildcard to reshuffle TE usage.
Tripwires (re-run if any fire)
- Camp/preseason reports of All running with the 1s in 12 personnel or beating Hudson/Sample for receiving snaps — upgrade toward a late-round TARGET in deeper formats.
- Gesicki injury at any point — All (if rostered/active) becomes the immediate waiver watch.
- Any knee soreness/setback reporting — drop to AVOID and remove from watch list.
- Final-cuts casualty in the 7-body room — void the eval.
Sources
data/stats/2024/— receiving.csv (22 tgt, 20-158-0, 3.5% TS), snap_counts.csv (231 off. snaps/9 gm, 42% avg), participation.csv pass-play join computed 2026-07-08 (114/694 = 16.4% RP proxy; 0.193 TPRR proxy) — nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07data/stats/2025/— no All rows (missed season); TE baseline: TE12 half-PPR PPG 8.8 computed from receiving.csv 2026-07-08data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json— age 25, Iowa, 2 yrs exp, CIN TE depth 2 (Sleeper label; beat coverage disagrees — see bengals.com)data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv— no row; mock-undrafted basis (Sleeper rank tail, 2026-07-08)data/team-profiles/CIN.md(updated 2026-07-07) — Fant departure (41 tgt vacated), Gesicki 42 tgt/46.3% route rate, Taylor tendencies, Endries R7, stability high- bengals.com "2026 Roster Reset Entering Mandatory Minicamp" (June 2026, searched 2026-07-08) — TE room order: Gesicki, Sample, Hudson, All (rotational), Grandy, Endries, Kattus
- Cincy Jungle / SI Bengals / Yardbarker / Yahoo (May–June 2026, searched 2026-07-08) — "healthy and ready," "fully healed," two ACL surgeries incl. revision of incorrect college repair, spring practice participation
- Marked UNVERIFIED: RZ/end-zone targets, alignment/detached splits, pass-block rate, 2024 draft slot number (R4 — pick number not re-verified), comp-season exact totals