CHI
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@BUFCaleb Williams — QB, CHI — 2026
Verdict — TARGET (medium confidence)
Williams produced 315.0 points (18.5/g) in this exact league scoring in 2025 — QB5 — and everything that generated it returns: the same play-caller (Ben Johnson, year 2), the same top-three targets (Odunze/Burden/Loveland), and the NFL's No. 1 pass-blocking line, yet FFC drafters price him QB14 at pick 106.3. His 30 combined TDs were xTD-clean (27 pass TD vs 26.5 passing xTD; 3 rush TD vs 2.68 rushing xTD), so there is no TD-luck to fade — the market is instead fading his ugly accuracy profile (58.1% comp, −6.9 NGS CPOE) and the run-tilted scheme (−3.9% PROE). Why the market is wrong: FFC mocks are pricing the completion-percentage narrative while ignoring that QB5 production was usage-supported and fully returning — he needs continuity, not a leap, to beat a QB14 price, and sharper high-stakes markets already price him QB6 (SI, 2026-07-02). Not MUST-HAVE: the rushing floor is scramble-built (designed-run rate 2.1%, concern band) and 2025's efficiency gains (sacks 68→24, EPA −0.05→+0.11) are one-season changes the evidence hierarchy says to only half-believe.
Bull case
- Price vs production: QB5 in this exact scoring (315.0 pts, 18.5/g, 2025) with the play-caller, all three top targets, and the No. 1 pass-blocking line all returning — priced QB14/pick 106. Continuity alone beats the cost; the year-3 leap is free upside.
- Nothing to regress on TDs: 27 pass TD vs 26.5 passing xTD, 3 rush TD vs 2.68 rushing xTD — production was usage-clean, and 150 vacated targets concentrate the tree on his best three weapons with no new capital competing.
- Real weekly floor at the price: elite scramble rate (6.7%), elite RZ rush share (19.8%), 7 QB sneaks, 23–29 rush yds/g two straight years at age 24 (no age haircut for years), plus elite deep-ball rate (14.4%) for ceiling weeks.
Bear case
- The accuracy is genuinely bad and got worse: −6.9 NGS CPOE and 58.1% comp in 2025 (from −1.1 / 62.5% as a rookie); the efficiency gains that made him QB5 (EPA −0.05→+0.11, pressure-to-sack 29%→12%, 68→24 sacks) are single-season changes — the evidence hierarchy says half-believe them, and a partial giveback plus INT/fumble luck landing (7 INT on 18 IW throws; 1 of 8 fumbles lost) shaves the median.
- The rushing floor is fragile, not schemed: 2.1% designed-run rate (concern band), only 2 inside-5 carries, and usage faded in the back half (3.6 att/g, 1.0 designed/g weeks 10+) — a scramble-built profile is the first thing better protection and coverage discipline erode. No Konami protection here.
- Volume is capped and the cap could tighten: −3.9% PROE sits on the concern line, a 9.5 win total means clock-killing scripts, 4th-in-NFL pace is regression-prone — and the LT spot (oft-injured re-signee, backup out for the year) is a single point of failure for a 3.20s time-to-throw QB.
Projection & comps
Bottom-up, 17-game basis, league scoring (4pt pass TD, −1 INT, 0.04/pass yd, 0.1/rush yd, −2 fumble lost):
Passing (median): ~65 plays/g × ~57% pass rate → ~33.2 att/g × 17 = ~565 attempts (2025 actual: 568 — team profile projection, 2026-07-07). YPA 7.0 (2025: 6.94; continuity + target concentration nudge, CPOE drag caps it) → ~3,950 yds. Pass TDs anchored to passing xTD (26.5 in 2025 on identical volume) → 26. INTs from INT-worthy rate, not last year's 7: 3.15% IW × 565 ≈ 18 IW throws × ~50% historical conversion → 9–10 INTs. ≈ 158 + 104 − 10 = 252 pts.
Rushing (median — projected separately; it is the floor): scrambles 6.7% of ~615 dropbacks ≈ 41; designed carries carried forward under the same play-caller at ~1.4/g ≈ 24 (incl. sneak package — 7 sneaks in 2025); ≈ 65 real carries at ~6.0 YPC → ~390 yds net of kneels. Rush TDs anchored to rushing xTD (2.68) + intact 19.8% RZ rush share → 3. Age 24: no age haircut (haircuts start at 28). ≈ 39 + 18 = 57 pts.
Fumbles/2pt: 8–10 fumbles/season both years; 2025's 1-of-8 lost was luck (2024: 5 of 10) → assume 4 lost = −8; +2 two-point. Median ≈ 252 + 57 − 8 + 2 ≈ 305 (17.9/g — QB5–7 on the 2025 scale).
- Floor 250 (20th pct): efficiency giveback (YPA 6.7, sack-avoidance partial regression), INT/fumble luck lands, and/or ~2 missed games → ~QB13–15, roughly par with cost.
- Median 305: continuity season; comp% ticks up but CPOE stays negative.
- Ceiling 350 (80th pct): the comp%-fix year Johnson has publicly targeted — 62–63% comp, ~4,250 yds, 30 pass TD, sneak/keeper package grows near the goal line (5 rush TD) → top-2 overall range.
Games risk: low — 34 straight regular-season starts (17+17, nflverse 2024–25), 3.9 real carries/g is well under the ≥8/g heavy-runner nudge threshold, and 2025 sack exposure was league-low (24).
Comp seasons (profile: ~565-att pass-first QB, modest scramble rushing, positive script — recalled published season lines, sanity-check only, not from cached data): Joe Burrow 2022 (~4,475/35 + ~250 rush — the median shape), Dak Prescott 2023 (~4,500/36, minimal rushing — median/ceiling), Jared Goff 2024 under Johnson in DET (~4,600/37 with zero rushing — what this passing environment alone supports), Justin Herbert 2021 (~5,000/38 + ~300 rush — ceiling), C.J. Stroud 2023 (~4,100/23 — the low-TD floor variant).
Usage profile — opportunity core (all pbp-derived figures REG only; kneels excluded where noted)
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | Band (2025) | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rush att/g (ex-kneel) | 4.41 | 3.88 | Good (low end) | 66 real carries; 11 kneels inflate the raw 77 |
| Designed rush rate | 2.35% | 2.09% | Concern-adjacent | Play-caller uses him sparingly by design; sneak package (7 in 2025) is the growth vector |
| Scramble rate | 7.2% | 6.7% | Elite | The rushing engine — QB-owned, but coverage/OL-dependent |
| Rush yds/g (ex-kneel) | 29.1 | 23.2 | Good (low end) | 5.98 YPC on real carries |
| RZ rush share | 18.3% | 19.8% | Elite | 20 RZ carries (13 designed) of 101 team RZ rushes |
| Inside-5 carries | 1 | 2 | Concern | TD access is via sneaks + RZ scrambles, not a goal-line keeper package |
| Rushing xTD | 1.14 | 2.68 | Concern→trending up | Actual 3 ≈ xTD — no regression either way |
| Dropbacks/g | 40.6 | 37.9 | Good (near elite) | Team total; volume real despite run tilt, via 4th-in-NFL pace (67.1 plays/g) |
| Pass att/g | 33.1 | 33.4 | Good | × YPA 6.94 = the yardage base |
| Team PROE | UNVERIFIED | −3.9% (nfelo) | Concern line | Johnson generates volume through pace/efficiency, not pass-heaviness |
| xFP | — | provider xFP UNVERIFIED; xTD-adjusted 2025 ≈ 313 lg-scoring pts (18.4/g) | Top-6 range | Derived: actuals ± (xTD−actual TD) deltas; INT adj included |
Late-season split (weeks 10+, 9 gm, 2025): 3.56 real att/g, 1.00 designed/g, 22.8 rush yds/g — rushing usage declined in the back half; no designed-run install to project forward. This is why the rush projection holds flat rather than growing.
Efficiency & talent signal
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | Band (2025) | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPA/dropback | −0.049 | +0.108 | Good | Real year-2 jump; half-believe per 2-season rule |
| CPOE | −0.10 pbp / −1.13 NGS | −3.51 pbp / −6.87 NGS | Concern | The bear case. Worsened as aDOT rose; accuracy is the unfixed QB-owned flaw |
| Pressure-to-sack | 29.3% | 12.2% | Elite | Charting-defn; the 68→24 sack collapse is scheme+OL+QB — biggest single-season swing in the profile, only half-bankable |
| INT-worthy rate (FTN; excl. fumble-worthy) | 2.10% | 3.15% | Mid | 7 INTs on 18 IW throws → INT luck lands eventually; costs only ~3 pts at −1/INT |
| Deep-ball rate (20+ air yds) | 14.2% | 14.4% | Elite | Ceiling source is real |
| aDOT | 7.98 | 8.62 | Elite band | Not a checkdown environment |
| Play-action rate | 17.7% | 31.1% | Elite | Play-caller-owned — persists with Johnson |
| Comp % | 62.5% | 58.1% | Concern | Johnson's stated 2026 objective #1 (chicagobears.com) |
QB-owned vs environment-owned: the scramble ability, deep aggression, and (negative) CPOE travel with him; the PA rate, YPA support, protection, and pace are Johnson/OL-owned — and all of those return intact, which is the core of the continuity thesis.
Context (from data/team-profiles/CHI.md, built 2026-07-07)
- Play-caller: Ben Johnson (HC) calls plays, year 2 — confirmed for 2026; OC Press Taylor explicitly does not call plays (Sun-Times/SI, Feb–June 2026). Shanahan/McVay-family scheme: league-high motion (54.9% of dropbacks), 30.3% PA, 12-personnel-heavy, wide-zone run game. −3.9% PROE but 4th in plays/g — volume via pace.
- Pass catchers: 150 vacated targets (DJ Moore traded to BUF, Zaccheaus to ATL) with no round-1–2 receiver capital added → concentration on Odunze (90 tgt in 12 gm), Burden (Johnson publicly committed to feeding him), Loveland (82 tgt as rookie). Below the 40% continuity-break threshold (~26% of targets departed) → YPA carryover is trustworthy.
- O-line: No. 1 PBWR (74%, ESPN through Wk 18 2025); interior elite (Thuney 98%, Wright 95%). Risk concentrated at LT — Braxton Jones (4 starts in 2025) in an open camp battle with Wills/Benedet, swing tackle Trapilo out 9–12 months. A 3.20s time-to-throw QB is disproportionately exposed if the edge breaks.
- Script: Vegas win total 9.5 (BetMGM/DK, 2026-07-07) → positive-script lean; team profile projects ~33.5 pass att/g, ~65 plays/g. Volume is capped, not growing.
- Job security: none in question — 2024 1.01 on rookie deal through 2027 + option; backups Bagent/Keenum. Benching risk zero.
- 2026 camp reporting: offense "far crisper" at OTAs, Williams "no longer drowning" in the system with real command in year 2 (SI/CBS Chicago/atozsports, June 2026); comp% is the named point of emphasis (chicagobears.com, 2026).
Tripwires (re-run this eval if any fire)
- ADP rises inside ~pick 80 (QB8–9) — the thesis is price-built; at QB7–12 dead-zone cost with a scramble-only rushing edge, TARGET flips to HOLD/FADE.
- LT breaks — Braxton Jones injury or a messy camp loss (Trapilo already out 9–12 mo): pressure spike vs his 3.20s TTT unwinds the sack-avoidance pillar.
- Camp/beat reports of a reined-in scramble game or no QB sneak/keeper package — the rushing floor is the thinnest leg; any further erosion drops the floor a tier.
- August injury to Odunze, Burden, or Loveland — target concentration is the passing-efficiency case; losing one re-opens the continuity question.
- Win total moves to 10.5+ — deepens the positive-script volume cap.
Sources
data/stats/2025/passing.csv,rushing.csv,ngs_passing.csv(and 2024 equivalents) — nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07 (REG-only derived tables)- nflverse play-by-play 2024–2025 via nflreadpy
load_pbp, loaded 2026-07-07 — designed/scramble/kneel splits, RZ + inside-5/10 carries, EPA/dropback, pbp CPOE, aDOT, deep-ball rate, rushing/passing xTD (league TD rate by yardline applied to his carries/attempts), fumbles, 2pt, exact league-scoring totals, weeks-10+ splits, 2025 QB ranks data/stats/2025/ftn_charting.csv+participation.csv(nflverse, pulled 2026-07-07), joined to pbp — INT-worthy rate (TWP proxy; excludes fumble-worthy plays), play-action rate on his dropbacks, QB sneaks, pressure rate + pressure-to-sack (charting definition; absolute level not comparable to PFF)data/team-profiles/CHI.md(built 2026-07-07) — play-caller, PROE (−3.9%, nfelo), OL (ESPN PBWR #1, 2026-01-06), vacated targets, Vegas 9.5 (BetMGM/DK 2026-07-07), plays/pass-rate projectionsdata/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv— ADP 106.3, QB14 (FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07)data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json— age 24 (DOB 2001-11-18), USC, years_exp 2- SI fantasy sleeper piece (2026-07-02) — high-stakes ADP QB6 note, fumble count (9 incl. playoffs, UNVERIFIED vs REG pbp count of 8); si.com/onsi/fantasy
- 2026 camp/OTA reporting: SI Bears, CBS Chicago, atozsports, roundtable.io, chicagobears.com (Johnson comp% emphasis) — June–July 2026
- UNVERIFIED / gaps: provider xFP (no Fantasy Points/PlayerProfiler export in
data/raw/); PFF-definition TWP and pressure rate (charting proxies used); NGS CPOE and pbp CPOE differ (−6.87 vs −3.51, 2025) — both reported