Don't Look at My Team

Jake Ferguson — TE, DAL — 2026

Verdict

FADE at ADP 114.8 (TE11, ~round 10 of 12, FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07), medium confidence. Ferguson's 2025 TE5 total-points finish (188.1 PPR, 11.06 PPG) decomposes into three parts the market is still paying for: four Lamb-out games at 22.9% TS and 18.6 PPG, an 8-TD conversion year against a ~5–6 xTD role, and 17-game durability. Why the market is wrong: with Lamb and Pickens both active — the 2026 base case, with both locked in and zero target competition departing or arriving — Ferguson earned 14.9% TS, 5.3 targets/game, and ~8.8–9.5 PPG, *below* the 2025 streamer baseline (~11.0 PPG); his median outcome is free on the waiver wire, and comparable-median TEs (Goedert 128.9, Andrews 130.0, Kincaid 134.9) cost 1–1.5 rounds less. This is a mid-tier profile (te.md §7 dead-zone band) priced at the top of the punt range: too expensive to be a punt, no elite-usage path to justify paying. At a round-plus discount (past ~127) the elite RZ role and the proven WR-injury contingency make him a fine punt-tier pick — that's the price this profile is worth.

Bull case

The RZ role is elite, proven, and three years deep: 24 RZ targets (2nd among TEs, 2025), position-leading 25 in 2023, 7 of 8 TDs inside the 20, in the NFL's #1 play-volume offense with a QB who threw 30 TDs. That's the most bankable TD floor outside the top-3 TEs, and it survives everything short of injury.
Role security is absolute and durability is real: $52M through 2029, weekly RP 82–95% for most of 2025, zero TE/WR capital added all offseason, 17/17 games in two of the last three years, age 27. The floor scenarios are about earning rate, never about routes or health.
The ceiling is contingent but has actually hit — twice: without Lamb he was a 22.9% TS, 18.6 PPG, TE1-overall-stretch player (4 games, 2025). Lamb has missed games in consecutive seasons, and Pickens sits on an expiring tag with no extension talks before 7/15 (team profile) — a trade or absence instantly re-runs this eval toward TARGET.

Bear case

His healthy-roster median is free: with Lamb active — the 2026 default — 14.9% TS, 5.3 targets/g, ~8.8–9.5 PPG, *below* the ~11.0 streamer baseline. Even his TE5-by-totals season cleared streaming by +0.8 PPG. Pick 115 buys an outcome you can approximate off waivers, while Goedert/Andrews/Kincaid go 14–20 picks later.
Per-route earning is bottom-third with no rescue traits: 1.20 YPRR (34th pctile) on a 4.9 aDOT, 2 explosive plays all season, PFF receiving grade 33rd of 37, EPA/target 31st among TEs, YAC down ~120 from 2023. The 2025 line was carried by 82 catches of empty-calorie volume plus a TD conversion (8 vs ~5.5–6 xTD) that regresses — the exact te.md §10 trap of pricing a small-base TD spike as real.
The target squeeze is structural, and the tape already showed it: Lamb and Pickens are both locked in and out-target him ~2:1 when healthy; his targets went 4-4-2-2 over the final month *with RP intact* — a demand-side fade, not a role change. Add the pass-pro leak risk if Guyton misses at LT (Smith kicks outside, TE stays in more) and the base case has downside texture, not just a low mean.

Projection & comps

Bottom-up (team volume from data/team-profiles/DAL.md, 2026-07-07: ~65 plays/g, ~36 att/g → ~660–680 dropbacks; 2025 actual: 673 charted dropbacks):

Scenario	Dropbacks	RP	Routes	TPRR	Targets	Rec (C%)	Yds (Y/tgt)	TD	PPR pts
Floor (20th)	~655	72%, 15 g	~420	0.18	76	59 (78%)	445 (5.9)	3	120
Median (50th)	~670	75%	~500	0.185	92	72 (78%)	560 (6.1)	6	162
Ceiling (80th)	~685	78% + WR injury window	~535	0.20+	108	85 (79%)	660 (6.1)	9	205

Includes −2 for a fumble lost (he's lost 2 in each of the last two seasons — receiving.csv 2024/2025).
TD anchor: 24 RZ targets in 2025 (2nd among TEs) and a position-leading 25 in 2023 put xTD ≈ 5.5–6/yr for this role; actuals ran 5 (2023) → 0 (2024, negative outlier) → 8 (2025, positive). Median uses 6, not 8 — the 2025 conversion is the classic te.md §10 TD trap if paid for at face value. Provider xTD: UNVERIFIED.
Ceiling path is contingency, not growth: the 80th percentile assumes a 3–4 game Lamb or Pickens absence (happened in both 2024 and 2025) at his demonstrated without-Lamb rates (8.2 tgt/g, 22.9% TS).
Games-played risk: low — 17/17 in 2025 and 2023-equivalent durability (14 g in 2024); only 2025 flag was a Week 15 calf (Questionable, played — injuries.csv). Age 27 (DOB 1999-01-18, Sleeper 2026-07-07) = peak window.
Comps (all from data/stats/*/weekly.csv, computed 2026-07-07): Hunter Henry 2025 (178.8 PPR, 10.5 PPG — third option, low aDOT), Dalton Schultz 2025 (177.7, 10.5), Juwan Johnson 2025 (179.9, 10.6 — ~100-target low-aDOT volume), Zach Ertz 2024 (177.4, 10.4 — floor-median world), Jonnu Smith 2024 (222.3, 13.1 — ceiling-world if the earning rate spikes). His own 188.1 in 2025 sits between median and ceiling — with four Lamb-out games and +2 TD of conversion luck baked in.
External projections: none cached (data/projections/ absent); no disagreement to flag.

Usage profile (2025, 17 REG games; 2024 in parentheses)

Sources: data/stats/2025/receiving.csv, weekly.csv, ngs_receiving.csv, snap_counts.csv, participation.csv (nflverse, pulled 2026-07-07); routes/TPRR/YPRR from SumerSports player page (retrieved 2026-07-07); PFF figures via search summaries (retrieved 2026-07-07, secondary).

Metric	2025 value	Band (te.md §2)	Read
Route participation	74.6% — 502 routes (SumerSports) / 673 DAL dropbacks (participation.csv). On-field pass-snap proxy 78.9% (531/673). (2024: 56.7%, 388/684)	Good (65–80), not elite	Weekly 82–95% on-field wks 9–16; the gate passes. Big jump from 2024's TE-committee usage
TPRR	0.20 (2024: 0.22)	Good (0.18–0.22)	Real earning rate — but split-dependent: ~0.17 with Lamb active vs ~0.27 without (computed, weekly.csv + participation.csv)
YPRR	1.20 (2024: 1.27)	Concern-adjacent (<1.4)	34th percentile (PFF). Two-season sample — this is the profile, not a blip
Target share	16.8% (102 tgt) (2024: 13.8%)	Good (16–21)	With Lamb active: 14.9% (13 g). Without: 22.9% (4 g). The full-season number flatters the 2026 base case
RZ target share	24 RZ targets, 2nd among TEs; led position with 25 in 2023 (FantasyPros/RotoWire via search)	Elite	The one genuinely elite trait; exact team-RZ-share % UNVERIFIED
End-zone targets	Count UNVERIFIED; 7 of 8 TDs inside the 20 (6th-most NFL incl. WRs — atozsports, 2026-05-30)	~top-5 proxy	Anchor xTD ≈ 5.5–6, below the 8 actual
Detached rate	Slot rate 88th percentile among TEs (PFF via search); exact inline/slot/wide % UNVERIFIED	Good→Elite	Used as a receiver, not a blocking Y — but as a checkdown/underneath receiver (aDOT 4.9 NGS / 5.0 PFF)
Pass-block rate	~5.5% derived (531 on-field pass snaps − 502 routes = ~29)	Mid (3–8%)	atozsports (2026-05-30) reports heavy obvious-passing-down protection duty; Guyton's LT health is the swing
Run-block rate	UNVERIFIED	—	Overall snap share 66.7% vs 74.6% RP → he leaves the field on run downs more than pass downs; not a blocking-Y usage shape
xFP	Provider xFP UNVERIFIED; PlayerProfiler VOS +0.8 PPG (#116); actual 11.06 PPG (TE9 by PPG, TE5 by total)	Mid	Even the career-best season beat the streamer baseline by <1 PPG
Efficiency texture	Catch 80.4%, YAC/rec 3.90 (+0.18 over expected), separation 3.31 (NGS); 2 explosive plays (#40, PlayerProfiler); PFF receiving grade 60.0 (33rd/37); EPA/tgt 31st among TEs (atozsports)	Concern	Volume-dependent producer; nothing here rescues a target dip
Coverage / MOF splits	Man/zone TPRR and MOF-vs-boundary mix UNVERIFIED	—	At 4.9 aDOT the profile is definitionally short/underneath; no seam-stretch evidence in 2025

2×2 read (te.md §2): RP 65–80 + TPRR ≥0.20 nominally screens as an "expansion candidate" — but the expansion path is blocked, not developmental: routes are capped by Lamb/Pickens's claim on the pie, his RP is already established at ~75–79% in this offense, and no role change is coming (same caller, same QB, same room). Archetype: big-slot alignment with a checkdown-outlet earning profile and a red-zone-specialist scoring profile — not the detached alpha (TS and YPRR both miss that bar by a mile).

The split that matters: targets went 4-4-2-2 over weeks 15–18 while RP held 82–85% (wks 15–16) — an earning-rate fade with the role intact, coinciding with Lamb healthy and Pickens surging, plus a Week 15 calf. Per te.md §2, role-driven late splits outweigh the season line; this one confirms the with-Lamb base case rather than voiding it. The early-season spike (12 and 14 targets, wks 2–3) began exactly when Lamb went out (wks 3–6) — injury-driven volume, which the evidence hierarchy (scoring-framework §3) says not to carry forward.

Context (from `data/team-profiles/DAL.md`, built 2026-07-07)

Play-caller/scheme: Schottenheimer year 2, stability high — league-most 65.9 plays/g, −1.0 PROE, 59.2% neutral dropback rate. PA rate 25.0% of dropbacks, 9th of 32 (computed 2026-07-07 from ftn_charting + participation join — fills a team-profile UNVERIFIED) — a genuine te.md §5 boost. 12-personnel 22.4% (up from 11.2% in 2024, participation.csv), but the routes from it stay with Ferguson: TE2 Schoonmaker at 24.2% pass-snap share, Spann-Ford 13.8%.
QB: Dak Prescott (4,552-30-10 in 2025), year 4 with this caller — accurate short/middle passer who trusts Ferguson in the RZ. Per the team profile's contingency line, Ferguson's short-area role *holds best* if Dak misses time — a floor point, not a ceiling one.
O-line: mid (12th PBWR/RBWR), all 5 starters back. The live risk is Guyton's health at LT — atozsports (2026-05-30) already charted Ferguson kept in protection on obvious passing downs in 2025; an OL wobble leaks more of his routes into chips.
Target competition — the thesis: hierarchy is Lamb (slot-heavy, $34M/yr) → Pickens (tagged 4/29/2026, $27.3M fully gtd) → Ferguson. They out-targeted him roughly 2:1 per game when all healthy. Vacated targets ~42 (trivial). No TE or slot-WR capital added — TE room behind him is Schoonmaker (contract year, backup job in jeopardy), Spann-Ford, and UDFAs Michael Trigg (big-slot projection) and D.J. Rogers (traditional Y) — the Cowboys' two priciest 2026 UDFA signings, battling for TE2 (atozsports/yardbarker, May 2026, retrieved 2026-07-07; RotoWire/SI). Zero draft capital = zero route threat under te.md §6's rounds-1–3 bar. Nothing threatens his routes; nothing frees him targets either.
Environment: 8.5–9.5 win total, neutral-to-positive lean. Better 2026 game scripts trim garbage-time pass volume — a mild marginal negative for the #3 target.
Contract/role security: 4-yr/$52M ext., $30M gtd, signed 7/27/2025, through 2029, 7th-highest TE AAV (ESPN, dallascowboys.com). OTA reporting (SI, May–June 2026): all 11 offensive starters return; Ferguson healthy and vocal about year-2 growth. No role ambiguity.

Positional scarcity placement (te.md §7)

League math: no TE premium + 1 TE slot → punt is the default posture. 2025 baselines (weekly.csv): TE12 season total 165.1; TE12-range PPG ~10.3–10.5 → streamer baseline ≈ ~11.0 PPG.
Ferguson's tier: mid (TE4–10 profile) — solid RP, TS 15–18%, offense-dependent, elite RZ role but no elite-usage path (needs RP ≥80% *and* TS ≥20%; his healthy-roster TS is ~15%).
PPG edge vs streamer: median projection ~9.5–9.8 PPG → edge ≈ −1 to 0 PPG; even his career-best 2025 was +0.8 VOS (PlayerProfiler). Ceiling scenario (~12 PPG) gets to +1; the pay-up band (+4 to +6) is not on the map.
Placement: a dead-zone profile priced at the top of the punt range. At 114.8 he costs 3–5 rounds more than punt-tier picks while offering punt-tier median value; Goedert (128.9), Andrews (130.0), and Kincaid (134.9) deliver comparable-or-better medians a round-plus later. Not a pay-up asset; a trap at cost, a value only after a fall.

Tripwires (re-run this eval if any fire)

Pickens departs or holds out — trade (expiring tag, no extension talks before 7/15 per team profile) or camp standoff → ~99 targets loosen; likely flips FADE → TARGET.
Lamb or Pickens multi-week injury in camp/preseason → re-run with the without-Lamb rates live from Week 1.
ADP drifts past ~127 (behind the Goedert/Andrews cluster, round 11+) → the discount this verdict demands has arrived; becomes an acceptable punt-price HOLD/TARGET.
Guyton ruled out / Smith to LT with camp reports of Ferguson chipping-protecting more, or Trigg/Rogers/Spann-Ford running 12-personnel routes with the 1s → deeper FADE.
Install reports of a featured/detached Ferguson role (seam usage, "moving him around" with first-team target volume in preseason) → revisit the median upward; his 0.20 TPRR would reward real route growth.

Sources

data/stats/2025/ + data/stats/2024/: receiving.csv, weekly.csv, ngs_receiving.csv, snap_counts.csv, participation.csv, injuries.csv, rosters.csv, pbp_summary.csv, ftn_charting.csv — nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07. Computed 2026-07-07: RP/pass-snap shares (participation), with/without-Lamb splits (weekly + participation), DAL PA rate 25.0% rank 9/32 (ftn × participation join), 12-personnel rates, TE PPG baselines.
SumerSports player page (retrieved 2026-07-07): routes 502/388, TPRR 0.20/0.22, YPRR 1.20/1.27 (2025/2024).
data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv — FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07: Ferguson 114.8 (TE11); TE board McBride 27.6 → Kittle 103.0 ahead; Goedert 128.9, Andrews 130.0, Kincaid 134.9 behind; round-10 neighbors are WR4/5s, QB2s, DSTs.
data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json: age 27 (DOB 1999-01-18), Wisconsin, years_exp 4, TE1 depth chart, no injury status.
data/team-profiles/DAL.md (built 2026-07-07): caller/QB/OL/hierarchy/vacated targets/win total/volume projections.
PlayerProfiler page (retrieved 2026-07-07): 11.1 FPPG (#10), VOS +0.8 (#116), 2 explosive plays (#40).
PFF figures via search summaries (retrieved 2026-07-07, secondary — page not directly fetched): slot rate 88th pctile, aDOT 5.0, receiving grade 60.0 (33rd/37), route grade 28th pctile, YPRR 34th pctile, 4 drops.
FantasyPros/RotoWire/NFL.com via search (retrieved 2026-07-07): 24 RZ targets, 2nd among TEs 2025; 25 RZ targets led position 2023.
atozsports.com (2026-05-30): 7 of 8 TDs inside the 20 (6th-most NFL), EPA/tgt 31st, YAC 429 (2023) → ~306 (2025), obvious-passing-down protection usage, 2026 route-design optimism.
ESPN / dallascowboys.com (2025-07-28): 4-yr/$52M, $30M gtd, $12M signing bonus, through 2029; 2022 R4 pick; career 149-1,429-7 through 2024.
SI / dallascowboys.com / Blogging The Boys via search (May–June 2026, retrieved 2026-07-07): OTA reporting, all 11 starters back, TE room (Schoonmaker contract year, Spann-Ford, UDFA Trigg), Ferguson Pro Bowl add.
atozsports.com / yardbarker.com (May 2026, retrieved 2026-07-07): TE2 battle — UDFAs Michael Trigg (big slot) and D.J. Rogers (Y) the two priciest 2026 UDFA signings; Schoonmaker/Spann-Ford also competing; Ferguson "best talent I've seen in this room."
UNVERIFIED: exact inline/slot/wide %, run-block snap rate, end-zone target count, team RZ target share %, man/zone TPRR splits, MOF-vs-boundary mix, provider xFP/xTD, exact 2023 stat line (derived ≈71-761-5 from ESPN career aggregate).