Don't Look at My Team

Ryan Flournoy — WR, DAL (2026)

Scoring note: League scoring per methodology/league-settings.md — half PPR (0.5/rec), confirmed 2026-07-08. The evaluation request assumed full PPR based on stale placeholder info; the confirmed settings file overrides that assumption. (Full-PPR equivalents: floor ~92 / median ~131 / ceiling ~176.)

Verdict

TARGET (medium confidence) at a free price (mock-undrafted). Flournoy is the locked WR3 on the NFL's highest-play-volume offense, coming off a real late-2025 role expansion — W14–18 route participation ~68% with a 0.265 TPRR (elite earning band), including a 13-target, 27.7% target-share game vs DET with *both* CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens active — and he sits one injury or one Pickens trade away from a top-two target claim with Dak Prescott. Why the market is wrong: it is pricing his 9.2% full-season target share and ~350 targets ahead of him, while ignoring (a) the late-season earning-rate signal, (b) zero WR capital added behind him (R7.218 only, Tolbert's 34 targets vacated), and (c) the contingency leverage — Lamb missed 4 games in 2025 and Pickens plays on an unresolved expiring franchise tag with no extension talks before 7/15 (nfl.com, June 2026). At zero cost, that skew is pure positive expected value; the realistic median (fringe WR5) is why this is a deep-league/bench TARGET, not a starter call.

Bull case

The role expanded and he earned in it: W14–18 RP ~68% with 0.265 TPRR — elite earning band — including 13 targets and a 27.7% TS vs DET with both Lamb and Pickens on the field; 11th of 93 WRs in first downs per route run. That's the wr.md §2 "RP <80% + high TPRR = buy" cell exactly.
Uncontested WR3 on the league's #1 play-volume offense: Tolbert gone, zero meaningful WR capital added, first-team OTA reps, elite athletic profile (9.80 RAS) with a stable elite QB — the median is boring but the job is his.
Free contingency leverage: one Lamb injury (4 missed games in 2025) or a Pickens tag blowup/trade promotes him into a ~20%+ target share role with Dak at literally zero draft cost — the exact deep-pool asymmetry we hunt.

Bear case

Hard target cap: Lamb + Pickens + Ferguson took 58.7% of targets, and a *healthy* Lamb season (he played only 13 games) shrinks the leftover pie further; 9.2% full-season TS and 0.205 WOPR are concern-band numbers, and even his late-split WOPR (~0.44) is below the 0.50 "good" line.
Pedigree says role player: day-3 FCS pick, age 27 in October, full-season TPRR 0.209 below the 0.22 earn line — the 2025 flash (71% catch rate, 7.1% TD/target) has single-season-spike regression written on it, and half-PPR scoring trims his possession-profile value further.
Even the hit case is modest: the 80th-percentile outcome (~144 half-PPR, ~8.5 PPG) is a WR4/5 — without a Lamb/Pickens absence he is a bye-week flex, and a Dak injury (tier-C backups) collapses the entire DAL passing tree beneath him.

Projection & comps

Half PPR. Bottom-up: DAL projected ~36 pass att/g × 17 ≈ 610 attempts (team profile, 2026-07-07).

Scenario	Routes basis	Targets	Rec	Yds	TD	Half-PPR pts
Floor (p20)	RP ~55%, TPRR ~0.18, healthy Lamb/Pickens all year	52	36	415	2.5	74
Median (p50)	RP ~68%, TPRR ~0.20 (WR3 every-down in 11 personnel)	72	50	570	4	106
Ceiling (p80)	RP ~75%, TPRR ~0.23, or 3+ games of Lamb/Pickens absence	95	64	760	6	144

TDs anchored to usage: ~5% of targets at his depth/RZ access (his 2025 rate, 4/56 = 7.1%, was mildly hot). Catch rate ~69% (2025: 71.4% on 8.8 aDOT, NGS). Rushing negligible (3 carries in 2025). Games-played risk: low — missed only W17 2025 (knee, returned full W18 at 87% snaps; injuries.csv).

Role comps (WR3 on a concentrated passing offense, half-PPR): Michael Wilson 2024 ARI (47-548-3, ~96) · Tre Tucker 2024 LV (47-672-3, ~108) · Rashid Shaheed 2023 NO (46-719-5, ~125) · Demarcus Robinson 2023 LAR (26-371-4, ~74, floor case) · Jauan Jennings 2024 SF (77-975-6, ~172 — the contingency-blowup overshoot case). Comp lines from memory of pre-2026 seasons; treat as approximate role anchors, not sourced stats.

No external projections found in data/projections/ (directory not present) — no sanity-check disagreements to log.

Usage profile (2025, nflverse cache pulled 2026-07-07; route/RP figures are an on-field-for-pass-plays proxy from participation.csv)

Metric	2025 full	W14–18 split	Band	Read
Target share	9.2% (56 tgt, 15 g)	~19.7% (27 tgt/4 g, wks 14/15/16/18)	Concern → approaching Good	Late split is the signal: expanded role persisted to season end
TPRR	0.209 (56/268 routes proxy)	0.265	Below Good → Elite	Earning rate spiked in the bigger role — the buy signal
Route participation	~40%	67.5% (92% in W18)	Concern → approaching Good	Classic RP<80% + high TPRR expansion candidate (wr.md §2 2×2)
Air-yards share	9.5%	~0.20 avg (weekly.csv)	Concern	Lamb/Pickens own the air yards
WOPR	0.205	~0.44	Concern → below Good	Even the late split is short of the 0.50 line — real cap
RZ target share	UNVERIFIED	UNVERIFIED	—	No RZ-split table in cache; pbp_summary is team-level
End-zone targets	UNVERIFIED	—	—	Same
xFP	UNVERIFIED (no provider export)	—	—	Actuals: 114.0 full-PPR in 15 offensive games = 7.6 PPG

Efficiency: YPRR 1.74 (up from 1.06 rookie; PlayerProfiler, retrieved 2026-07-08) — between concern and good. 11th of 93 qualifying WRs (250+ routes) in first downs per route run — elite drive relevance, sandwiched between Drake London/Ja'Marr Chase and Rashee Rice/Keenan Allen (PlayerProfiler, retrieved 2026-07-08). NGS (2025 season): aDOT 8.79 (intermediate sweet spot), catch 71.4%, avg separation 3.04 yds, YAC/rec 5.03 with +0.65 YAC over expected (positive, 1 yr). Drop rate: UNVERIFIED (FTN charting lacks a clean receiver join in cache). 2024 rookie base: 14 tgt, 10-102-0 in 9 games, 2.25% TS — year-1 sample is noise; role re-projection governs.

Target quality/tree: two 100+ yard games (W5 @NYJ 6-114 with Lamb out; W14 @DET 9-115-1 with the full corps active); led DAL in receiving TDs weeks 9–18 (roundtable.io, retrieved 2026-07-08). Depth mix, MOF/boundary split, coverage (man/zone) splits, exact slot%: UNVERIFIED — no provider alignment/coverage exports in data/raw/. Qualitative: Sleeper depth chart lists him SWR (2026-07-07); PlayerProfiler describes a "power slot" who also wins outside; the team profile has Lamb taking the majority of slot snaps, with Flournoy at Z/outside in most 3-WR looks — multi-alignment, not a one-route tree.

Pedigree (weighted up — NFL sample still thin): 2024 R6.216 (day 3 — weak capital prior, so the NFL usage record above is the load-bearing evidence). SEMO (FCS) — per prospect-pedigree.md §4, FCS production requires athletic confirmation: RAS 9.80 (63rd of 3,063 WRs since 1987), 4.44 forty, 39.5" vert, 11'0" broad (si.com/steelersdepot, 2024 combine) — clears the ≥8.0 bar decisively. Age 26 (b. 1999-10-27, Sleeper 2026-07-07), turns 27 in October, NFL year 3 — at his peak now; this is the window, not a rising dynasty asset. The formal WR yr-2/3 breakout screen requires day-1/2 capital and doesn't fire; his late-2025 usage partially substitutes for it.

Context (data/team-profiles/DAL.md, built 2026-07-07)

Volume engine: DAL led the NFL in plays/game (65.9, Sharp Football 2025); projected ~36 pass att/g in 2026. Stability high: Schottenheimer year 2 calling, Dak year 4 with him, all 5 OL starters back.
Hierarchy: Lamb (slot/movement) → Pickens (tagged 4/29/2026, $27.3M, X) → Ferguson (TE1, 102 tgt) → Javonte (51 tgt, low RB-target scheme) → Flournoy WR3 → Turpin (gadget). The big three ate 356 of 607 targets (58.7%) in 2025 — the structural cap on his median.
Vacated/added: Tolbert (34 tgt) → MIA; only WR added is R7.218 Anthony Smith (camp body). Vacated ~42 targets — below the 120 green-flag line, but the WR3 job is uncontested.
2026 camp signal: locked-in WR3, took first-team reps as Dak's de facto No. 1 during Pickens' voluntary absence and Lamb's excused OTA absences (dallascowboys.com; clutchpoints; bloggingtheboys; thelandryhat — June 2026). Local breakout buzz is real but volume-capped (SI "cold water" piece notes 350+ targets ahead of him).
Contingency: Lamb missed weeks 3–6 in 2025 (Flournoy posted 9 tgt/32% TS/6-114 in W5); Pickens on an expiring tag with a no-talks-before-7/15 stance — a midseason trade or 2027 walk-year drama is live. Dak contingency (Howell/Milton, tier C) would compress the whole passing tree — the main systemic downside.

Tripwires (re-run on any)

DAL signs or trades for a veteran WR, or rookie Anthony Smith/Turpin takes first-team 3-WR reps from Flournoy in camp (beat reports, Aug 2026).
George Pickens is traded or holds out — flips this eval bullish; re-run immediately.
CeeDee Lamb or Pickens suffers a multi-week injury in camp/season — re-run bullish.
Flournoy's ADP rises into the top ~180 overall / WR60 — no longer free; re-judge vs the WR4 field.
The W17 knee (or any soft-tissue issue) resurfaces and costs him camp reps.

Sources

data/stats/2025/receiving.csv, weekly.csv, snap_counts.csv, ngs_receiving.csv, participation.csv, injuries.csv, pbp_summary.csv — nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07 (2025 REG). Routes/RP/TPRR are an on-field-during-pass-plays proxy computed from participation.csv (268 routes counted; PlayerProfiler's 250+ qualifier corroborates the magnitude).
data/stats/2024/receiving.csv, snap_counts.csv, depth_charts.csv — nflverse, pulled 2026-07-07 (2024 REG).
data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json — age, college, depth-chart slot (SWR, order 3), team=DAL.
data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv — no ADP value for Flournoy (FFC PPR mocks 2026-07-07); sleeper-searchrank tail row 2026-07-08 → judged as undrafted/free.
data/team-profiles/DAL.md — built 2026-07-07 (pass volume, hierarchy, Pickens tag, vacated targets, Dak contingency).
PlayerProfiler player page/news — YPRR 1.06→1.74, FD/RR 11th of 93, "power slot" role (retrieved 2026-07-08).
dallascowboys.com ("playing freely in year 3"; OTA practice notes), clutchpoints, bloggingtheboys, thelandryhat, heavy.com — 2026 OTA/minicamp role reports (June 2026, retrieved 2026-07-08).
si.com/roundtable.io — 2025 season recaps, target-cap counterargument, led DAL in rec TD wks 9–18 (retrieved 2026-07-08).
si.com FCS/yardbarker/steelersdepot/nfl.com — 2024 combine: RAS 9.80, 4.44 forty, 39.5" vert, 11'0" broad (retrieved 2026-07-08).
UNVERIFIED: RZ/end-zone target counts, xFP, drop rate, exact slot/wide %, MOF-vs-boundary mix, man/zone coverage splits, depth-of-target mix. Comp-season stat lines are approximate memory anchors, flagged in §2.