Dallas Cowboys

DAL — team profile

Built per methodology/team-context.md. Every number needs a source + as-of date or the UNVERIFIED mark. Position evals cite this file; they do not re-research it.

Play-caller

• Calls plays: Brian Schottenheimer (HC) — confirmed. OC Klayton Adams "does not handle play calling duties, and instead assists Schottenheimer in constructing his gameplan each week" (dallascowboys.com, 2026 offseason coverage; also bloggingtheboys.com "year two of Brian Schottenheimer's offense," as-of 2026-07-07). Adams is retained for 2026 — Dallas blocked an Eagles OC-interview request (dallascowboys.com, Jan 2026).
• Tenure with team: HC/play-caller since Jan 2025 (entering year 2 calling); with organization since 2023 (OC 2023–24 under McCarthy, non-calling). Prior relationship with QB1: 4th consecutive season with Dak Prescott.

Last 3 play-calling stops (skip non-calling years):

Read: Schottenheimer's history is run-tilted Air-Coryell (run game + vertical play-action), but with Dak and this receiver room his 2025 Dallas offense played essentially neutral (−1.0 PROE) at the league's highest play volume — Cowboys led the NFL in plays/game (Sharp Football 65.9; fantasylife also ranks DAL #1) with a 59.2% neutral dropback rate and heavy motion. The volume, not a pass-rate tilt, is the fantasy engine here; RB target share is low (13.5%), so the passing pie concentrates on Lamb/Pickens/Ferguson. Year-2 continuity of caller + QB + OL means the 2025 tendency table carries into 2026 at close to full weight.

QB situation

• QB1: Dak Prescott — 4-yr/$240M deal signed Sept 2024, highest-AAV anchor contract; benching risk: none. 2025: 404/600, 4,552 yds, 30 TD, 10 INT, 31 sacks in 17 games (data/stats/2025/passing.csv, nflverse, pulled 2026-07-07).
• Backup: open competition — Sam Howell vs Joe Milton III (Schottenheimer has called it an open competition; Howell signed 1-yr/$2.5M March 2026 and has climbed to No. 2 reps — bloggingtheboys.com, sports.yahoo.com, June 2026). Tier C for Milton (24 career att); tier B−/C for Howell (17 starts in 2023 WAS, high-sack profile). Treat the position as tier C until the battle resolves.
• Contingency line: If Dak misses time: Howell or Milton, tier C — expect pass rate down 4–6 pts, aDOT compressed toward screens/checkdowns, and Lamb/Pickens both losing a tier of treatment (Pickens' deep X role is hurt most; Ferguson/short-area work holds best). Widen all DAL pass-catcher ranges downward if Dak games-risk rises above low.

O-line

• Projected starters LT–RT: Tyler Guyton (injury flag — 2025 season ended by high ankle sprain after knee + concussion issues) — Tyler Smith — Cooper Beebe — Tyler Booker (yr 2, 2025 R1) — Terence Steele (dallascowboys.com, 2026-03-23). Depth: R4.112 OT Drew Shelton (Penn State), Matt Hennessy (1-yr FA, interior), Nate Thomas (LT safety net). Tyler Smith kicks to LT if Guyton can't stay healthy — that's the one live OL variable.
• Interior vs edge: interior is the strength — Smith/Beebe/Booker is a top-shelf young interior trio, so the deep game and Dak's efficiency are protected. Edge is the softer spot: Guyton's availability at LT is the swing; if he misses, Smith slides out and the interior loses its best player. No rookie starters projected.

Scheme family

• Run scheme: gap/duo-leaning with zone mixed — Klayton Adams (former Cardinals OL coach) built one of the league's most physical, downhill run games in 2025 ("architect behind one of the league's most potent rushing attacks," dallascowboys.com/thelandryhat, 2026). Fits between-tackles grinders with contact balance — exactly Javonte Williams' 2025 usage (252 carries, 4.8 YPC, 11 TD). Satellite backs (Blue) are change-of-pace only.
• Pass-game family: Coryell-family vertical play-action married to heavy motion/shift — boundary iso for Pickens (X, deep aDOT, high air-yards share 31.4% in 2025 per nflverse cache), movement/slot leverage for Lamb, PA seams for Ferguson. Implication: mid-to-high team aDOT (8.2, nfelo 2025), big WR1/WR2 target concentration, thin WR3 volume.

Target/touch hierarchy & vacated math

Departed (name — 2025 targets / carries, data/stats/2025 nflverse cache):

• WR Jalen Tolbert — 34 targets / 4 carries → signed with MIA (ESPN free agency tracker, March 2026)
• RB Miles Sanders — 8 targets / 20 carries → 2026 FA, not expected back after IR season (dallascowboys.com, retrieved 2026-07-07)

Vacated targets: ~42 · Vacated carries: ~24 — trivial; no feeding-opportunity or consolidation flag. The 2025 hierarchy returns intact.

Arrivals (name — claim): QB Sam Howell (1-yr/$2.5M — backup only); OT Drew Shelton (R4.112 — depth); WR Anthony Smith (R7.218, East Carolina — camp claim only). No skill-position capital added — incumbents' claims are unchallenged.

Projected pecking order:

Which WR plays the slot most: CeeDee Lamb. Pickens stays outside at X; Flournoy carries the depth-chart "slot WR3" label but Lamb kicks inside at the highest rate and volume (Reception Perception/rotowire alignment data; dallascowboys.com mailbag, 2026 offseason).

RB committee split: Javonte Williams — early-down AND goal-line bell cow (54.2% carry share, 252 carries, 11 rush TD in 2025; re-signed 3-yr/$24M, $16M gtd, 2/21/2026 — nfl.com). RB2 contested: Jaydon Blue (2025 R5, change-of-pace/passing downs) vs Phil Mafah vs Malik Davis (dallascowboys.com, 3/23/2026). Hunter Luepke is the FB. No committee threat to Javonte's volume was added all offseason.

Game environment

• Vegas win total: 8.5 (FanDuel, Over −150; DraftKings 8.5; BetMGM 9.5, Over +105) — as-of 2026-07-07 via cbssports.com/sportsbooks → script lean: neutral (7.5–9 band), with money moving toward the Over.
• Projected plays/game: ~65 (2025: led NFL — 65.9 Sharp Football / 68.6 pass+rush per nflverse cache; 28.0 sec/play mid-band pace; trim ~1–3 plays for an improved defense producing fewer shootout scripts) · Projected pass rate: ~59–60% (2025 raw 63.2% was inflated by an NFL-worst defense/negative scripts; PROE −1.0 and 59.2% neutral DB rate are the caller's true level)
• Projected pass attempts/game: ~36 · rush attempts/game: ~26 (inputs: 65 plays × ~60% dropback ≈ 39 dropbacks − ~3 sacks/scrambles ≈ 36 att; 2025 actuals were 36.7 team att/g and 25.3 rush att/g, nflverse cache — projection shades run-ward on better game script)

Defensive identity

Per methodology §8 — consumed by DST evals (dst.md §3) and /weekly-edge coverage-matchup reads (in-season.md §2).

• Runs the defense: Christian Parker (DC) — confirmed; hired Jan 2026 after Matt Eberflus was fired 1/6/2026 following a franchise-worst 511 points allowed (nfl.com, espn.com, dallascowboys.com).
• Tenure with team: first year · New DC: YES — new-DC protocol applies; all 2025 Dallas scheme stats below are VOID for 2026 projection. Parker is a first-time coordinator (age 34, youngest DC in franchise history) → tree prior only, everything low-confidence.
• Front/scheme family: Parker says base 3-4 with 4-3 spacing, 4-2-5 nickel, multiple front structures (dallascowboys.com, nfl.com, 2026 offseason). Tree: Vic Fangio school — Broncos DB coach under Fangio 2019–22, Eagles DB coach/pass-game coordinator under Fangio 2023–25 incl. Super Bowl LIX. Fangio-tree prior: two-high shells, light boxes, zone/quarters lean, pre-snap disguise, modest blitz (Eagles 2025 blitz rate 27.1%, 14th — phillyvoice.com/eagles247, 2025 season). Parker has said he'll build around the players, not import Fangio wholesale (nfl.com, 2026).

• Key defensive arrivals/departures (edges and CB1 first):
• Arrivals: EDGE Rashan Gary (trade from GB for a 2027 4th — ESPN/A-to-Z Sports, March 2026); EDGE Malachi Lawrence (R1.23, UCF); S Caleb Downs (R1.11, Ohio State — plays slot/everywhere); S Jalen Thompson (3-yr/$36M); S P.J. Locke (1-yr/$5M); CB Cobie Durant (1-yr); CB Devin Moore (R4.114); EDGE LT Overton (R4.137); LB Jaishawn Barham (R3.92); NT Otito Ogbonnia (1-yr/$3M). In-season-2025 trades already on roster: DT Quinnen Williams (from NYJ) and DT Kenny Clark (Parsons trade return, Aug 2025).
• Departures: CB1 Trevon Diggs — released 12/30/2025 (espn.com); DT Osa Odighizuwa — traded for a 2026 3rd; EDGE Payton Turner → DET; EDGE Dante Fowler — unsigned FA, not expected back (dallascowboys.com, 2026).
• CB1 now DaRon Bland (4-yr/$90M extension Aug 2025; returned from late-2025 foot IR) with Shavon Revel/Caelen Carson/Durant behind — the thinnest position on the defense (cbssports.com, bloggingtheboys.com, 2026 offseason).
• Shadow-CB tendency: unknown — Bland has not been a travel corner historically, and Parker has no DC track record to project from.

Read: a full identity reset — Fangio-tree two-high zone with a rebuilt pass rush (Gary + Ezeiruaku + R1 Lawrence on the edge, Q.Williams + Clark inside) that should lift a 28th-ranked pressure profile meaningfully, but a first-time DC, two new starting safeties, and a thin CB room mean weeks 1–4 install drag and low confidence on every scheme rate. 2025's 11 takeaways and 30.1 PA/g (nflverse cache) mark the floor being climbed out of; DST evals cap confidence while dc_new: true.

Stability & change log

• Stability: high — per methodology §10: same play-caller entering year 2 (Schottenheimer), same QB1 (Dak, year 4 with this caller), all 5 OL starters returning, no unresolved top-of-depth-chart battles, and zero skill-position turnover (vacated targets ~42). Zero major offensive changes occurred this offseason; the DC change is carried separately in dc_new: true and does not drag the offensive rating.
• Watch items: (1) Guyton's health at LT — a camp injury slides Tyler Smith outside and fires the OL staleness trigger; (2) QB2 battle Howell vs Milton (contingency tier, not stability); (3) Pickens on an expiring tag — no extension talks before 7/15 (nfl.com, June 2026) — midseason trade chatter would be a tripwire; (4) RB2 battle Blue/Mafah/Davis; (5) BetMGM already posts 9.5 — a consensus move to 9.5+ flips script lean positive (≥1.5-win move is the formal trigger).