Don't Look at My Team

Isaiah Likely — TE, NYG — 2026

Verdict

TARGET (medium confidence) at ADP 138.7 overall / TE15 (FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07). The market is pricing Likely's 2025 box score (27-307-1 behind Mark Andrews, coming off July foot surgery); it is not pricing the 2026 role purchase — 3yr/$40M ($20.5M gtd, up to $47.5M), 3rd-highest paid TE in football (giants.com/baltimoreravens.com, March 2026), following Harbaugh to a rebuilt offense that beat reporters describe as "a two-tight-end offense built around Jaxson Dart, and Likely is the movable piece that makes it go" (Newsweek/Yahoo camp preview, June 2026). Per scoring-framework §3, a role-driven usage change can be believed immediately — and this one comes with a live catalyst: WR1 Malik Nabers is expected to open camp on PUP with Week 1 in doubt (PFR/Schefter via team profile, April–June 2026). Why the market is wrong: at TE15/pick 139 you pay a streamer price for a player whose contract capital, target hierarchy slot (#2, possibly #1 to open the season), and 2023 proof-of-role stint (13.9 PPR PPG as BAL's starting TE — Yahoo, 2023) give him a top-6 ceiling path that nothing else at this price offers. Weak athletic testing and a real TE2 tax keep this a TARGET, not a MUST-HAVE.

Scarcity placement (te.md §7): punt tier, correctly priced within it, with above-tier upside. Median projection (~9.7 PPG) sits *below* the streamer baseline (~11.1–11.6 = 2025 TE12 PPG 10.6 + 0.5–1.0 streaming bonus — weekly.csv, pulled 2026-07-07); the edge is entirely in the ceiling scenarios (+1.5 to +2 PPG, TE5–7 range). This is a role bet at punt cost — draft him as the punt-TE anchor, pair with a second late TE or stream, and cut without pain if the tripwires fire. He is not a dead-zone trap (he costs round 12, not rounds 5–8) and not a pay-up asset.

Bull case

The role was bought, not hoped for: 3rd-highest TE money ($40M/3yr, $20.5M gtd) from the HC who drafted him, in an offense beat writers explicitly describe as built around two TEs with Likely as the movable centerpiece — and his 2024 TPRR (~0.20) at sub-65% RP is the exact "routes are the only missing piece" green flag (te.md §10).
Live path to being the No. 1 target: Nabers expected to open camp on PUP, Week 1 in doubt (Schefter/PFR, April–June 2026) behind a WR room of one-year deals and a rookie R3 — Likely's 2023 stint as a full-time TE1 produced 13.9 PPG, top-5 TE pace, so the ceiling scenario has an on-field precedent.
Nagy + RZ mismatch: Reid-tree play-callers funnel TE targets (Burton 76, Graham 76-tgt pace w/ 31% RZ share), Likely's calling card is the red-zone mismatch, and at pick 139 you pay nothing for 7-TD upside.

Bear case

He has never done the thing he's now priced to do: four seasons, zero with RP ≥ 65% or a target share above 12.7% — every elite-TE season starts at RP ≥ 75–80%, and Likely's is a projection resting entirely on contract inference. His 2025 in his walk year, healthy from Week 4 on, was 63% pass-snap participation, 0.157 TPRR, and 4.4 FPPG (#42).
Weak tester in a bad offense: 4.88 forty / 17th-pct speed score with day-3 capital — the profile that historically never reaches the pay-up tier (te.md §9) — attached to a 7.5-win-total, year-1-install offense with a second-year QB and ~30 pass att/gm. The median outcome is a sub-streamer TE13 you drop by Week 6.
The two-TE offense cuts both ways: Theo Johnson ran 451 routes-proxies (78.7%) and earned 74 targets just last season — the staff's stated 12-personnel identity keeps him on the field, and two TEs from one team are almost never both rosterable (te.md §6). A 55/45 route split makes both of them streamers, and 2024 6-TD memories (10.3% TD/target) are regression bait, not a base.

Projection & comps

Bottom-up, 17-week season, ~16 games for Likely at median (build inputs from data/team-profiles/NYG.md, 2026-07-07: ~62.5 plays/gm, ~55% dropback rate → ~585 team dropbacks, ~550–560 route-eligible plays).

Scenario	RP	Routes	TPRR	Tgt	Rec	Yds	TD	PPR pts	PPG
Floor (p20)	~62% (Johnson splits; 14 gm)	~285	0.19	~57	40	440	3	~105	7.5
Median (p50)	~72%	~400	0.20	~80	58	655	5	~155	9.7
Ceiling (p80)	~80% (Nabers misses time)	~450	0.23	~105	74	830	7	~205	12.8

TD anchor: xTD from role, not 2024 actuals. Career 7.5% TD/target is inflated by the 2024 spike (6 TD on 58 targets = 10.3%/target — the classic small-base TE trap, te.md §10); Nagy offenses do feature the TE in the red zone (Graham had 31.3% of CHI RZ targets early 2020 — FantasyPros, 2020), but Dart vultured 9 rush TDs in 14 games in 2025 (rushing.csv), a permanent tax. 5 TDs on ~80 targets ≈ league-average TE RZ role, not a spike.
Games risk: medium — broken foot + surgery July 2025 (missed Wks 1–3 — Wikipedia/PFN, fetched 2026-07-07), missed one 2024 game; age 26, inside the 25–29 peak window.
Comps (paid free-agent move-TEs entering new offenses; PFR career pages, historical): Jonnu Smith 2024 MIA (88-884-8 — the ceiling), Hunter Henry 2021 NE (50-603-9 — TD-driven median with a young QB), Gerald Everett 2022 LAC (58-555-4 — the median), Austin Hooper 2020 CLE (46-435-4 — paid TE1 money into a run-lean offense; the floor), Jonnu Smith 2021 NE (28-294-1 — the disaster tail: two-TE room eats the routes).
External projections: data/projections/ does not exist — no external sanity check on file. UNVERIFIED.

Usage profile (te.md §2 table)

All nflverse numbers from data/stats/2024|2025/ (pulled 2026-07-07). RP/TPRR/YPRR are pass-snap-share proxies computed from play-level participation.csv (on-field for team pass plays); true route-based figures run slightly higher (pass-block snaps not removed) — provider route exports not in data/raw/, marked accordingly.

Metric	2024 (BAL)	2025 (BAL)	Band	Read
Route participation (proxy)	59.2% full / 63.6% excl. wk10 (297/502 pass plays)	51.5% full / 63.1% post-return (229/363, Wks 4–18)	Concern on history	Gate fails on the old role — but the role is void (te.md §3): new team, TE1 money, no Andrews. Re-projected 70–78%. Never proven ≥75% over a full season — that's the median risk
TPRR (proxy)	0.195 (58 tgt/297) → true ≈0.20+	0.157 (36 tgt/229)	2024 Good, 2025 Concern	The 2024 number is the §10 green flag: TPRR ≈0.20 with RP <75% — routes were the only missing piece, and NYG just bought them. 2025 sample is injury/aggregate-depressed
YPRR (proxy)	1.61 (477 yds/297)	1.34	2024 Good, 2025 below	Efficiency fine for a #2-option TE; never elite (≥1.8)
Target share	12.7%	8.9%	Concern	Both seasons behind Andrews (61–62% snap share both years, snap_counts.csv). Re-project 15–18% as NYG TE1
aDOT	8.05 (467 air yds/58)	7.97	—	Middle-of-field mover profile; NGS 2024: +1.32 YAC over expected, 4.32 avg separation (ngs_receiving.csv) — legit after-catch juice
Red-zone target share	UNVERIFIED (not in derived tables; no provider export)	UNVERIFIED	—	Directional: 6 rec TD 2024, RZ mismatch is his reputation (giants.com, March 2026); anchor TDs to role, not this
End-zone targets	UNVERIFIED	UNVERIFIED	—	No source on file
Detached rate	UNVERIFIED	"lined up as a receiver on 70%+ of snaps" (empiresportsmedia, June 2026)	Elite if accurate	Move/"F" TE, not an inline Y; NYG plan is flex/slot/seam usage (empiresportsmedia, June 2026)
Run-down usage (proxy)	On field 41.0% of BAL run plays	32.7%	Green	He is not the blocking TE (Kolar was: 61.4% of 2025 run plays); pass-block rate UNVERIFIED but profile says receiver
xFP	UNVERIFIED (PlayerProfiler shows actual FPPG: 7.7 #19 in 2024; 4.4 #42 in 2025, fetched 2026-07-07)		—	No usage-based xFP source on file
MOF vs boundary / man-zone splits	UNVERIFIED	UNVERIFIED	—	No charting export; aDOT ~8 + YAC profile is MOF-consistent but unproven

Sample-size note (te.md §2): 2025 is <250 route-proxies post-return and injury-clouded — lean on the 2024 rate + pedigree. Pedigree (Sleeper players JSON 2026-07-07 + PlayerProfiler, fetched 2026-07-07): age 26, 6'4"/241, 2022 R4 pick 139 (Wikipedia), college dominator 31.4% (92nd pct), breakout age 18.4 (97th pct) — but 4.88 forty / 87.1 speed score (17th pct). Per te.md §9, weak testers with day-3 capital almost never reach the pay-up tier — this is the structural ceiling governor on the eval, offset partly by elite agility-in-space production (YAC +1.32 over expected) and the 2023 on-field mismatch evidence.

Breakout-pattern check (te.md §9): not a year-3 case (year 5, age 26) — but the post-hype shape rhymes: day-3 pick, market fatigued after a lost 2025, routes newly available via TE1 departure-equivalent (he left Andrews for a TE1 job). 2023 proof-of-role: 25-372-6 in the 8 games after Andrews' injury; 13.9 PPR PPG over the final six regular-season starts (clutchpoints/Yahoo, 2023 — fetched 2026-07-07). Rookie-fade rule N/A.

Context (from `data/team-profiles/NYG.md`, built 2026-07-07)

Offense quality: 7.5 Vegas win total (BetMGM, 2026-05-20), neutral script, year-1 install drag under a new staff — a bottom-third projected offense. This caps the median hard (te.md §5) and is the main reason the median sits below the streamer baseline despite a good role.
QB: Jaxson Dart, year 2 (R1 2025; 15 pass TD, 5 INT in 14 rookie starts — passing.csv). Young-QB seam trust is unproven — checkdown floor yes, ceiling throws TBD. Contingency (Winston) keeps volume but spikes variance.
Play-caller: Matt Nagy (year 1, presumed caller). Reid-tree, RPO-heavy, west-coast — his offenses structurally feature the move TE: Trey Burton 2018 CHI got 76 targets (54-569-6) at "80s, 85%" snaps per Nagy himself; Jimmy Graham 2020 finished 50-456-8 with 31.3% of early-season RZ targets (Bleacher Nation/FantasyPros, fetched 2026-07-07). That history supports a 70–85 target TE1 with real TD access — and also flags the archetype: move-TE production is play-caller-dependent (te.md §8).
Scheme: Roman run game + Ricard FB + rising 12/21-personnel rate — heavy sets guarantee Likely snaps but gate team pass volume (~30 att/gm projected, team profile). Low volume × decent TPRR is a one-TE feeding pattern — good for Likely, bad for anyone hoping both NYG TEs matter.
Target competition (te.md §6): hierarchy per team profile — Nabers (health-contested) > Likely (#2 claim, $13.3M/yr) > Slayton > Mooney/Austin (contested slot) > Skattebo. ~166 vacated targets (Robinson 140 + Bellinger 26) were re-claimed with capital, but no high-capital *slot* WR arrived — Mooney ($10M/1yr) and Austin ($4.5M) are modest claims on Likely's MOF turf. TE2 tax is the real one: Theo Johnson ran a pass-play participation of 78.7% (451/573) with 74 targets / 14.7% TS in 2025 (participation.csv, receiving.csv). He's demoted by the contract, but a two-TE offense keeps him in routes — the split is the single biggest week-to-week variable in Likely's median. No TE drafted rounds 1–3 (green flag).
OL: 4/5 returning, strong tackles, rookie R1 RG — early interior pressure favors quick game and TE outlets (team profile read), mildly Likely-positive weeks 1–4.
Camp signal: Likely has produced "the top offensive plays of the spring" with contested one-handed grabs (giants.com OTA reports, May–June 2026). Noise, but directionally consistent with featured usage.

Tripwires (re-run eval if any fire)

Nabers activated healthy for Week 1 and practices fully through camp — the No.-1-target ceiling path narrows; verdict likely drops to HOLD.
Camp/preseason shows Theo Johnson running with the 1s or a ~50/50 route split in 11/12 personnel (or Likely reported inline, not detached).
Likely foot/soft-tissue recurrence in camp (2025 surgical foot).
ADP rises inside ~pick 100 / top-10 TE — the punt-price thesis is the verdict; at TE9 cost this is a FADE.
NYG win total drops ≤ 6.5 or Dart injury — offense-quality cap tightens to streamer range.

Sources

data/stats/2025/ + data/stats/2024/ — receiving.csv, participation.csv (play-level, RP/TPRR/YPRR proxies computed 2026-07-07), snap_counts.csv, ngs_receiving.csv, weekly.csv (TE PPG baseline: 2025 TE12 = Juwan Johnson 10.6 PPG, min 8 gm), passing.csv, rushing.csv — nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07
data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv — Likely 138.7 overall, TE15 (FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07)
data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json — age 26 (DOB 2000-04-18), 6'4"/241, Coastal Carolina, depth_chart TE1
data/team-profiles/NYG.md (built 2026-07-07) — coaching staff, volume inputs, hierarchy, vacated targets, win total, OL
giants.com / baltimoreravens.com (March 2026) — contract 3yr/$40M, up to $47.5M, $20.5M gtd, 3rd-highest-paid TE
Newsweek/Yahoo "2026 Training Camp Preview: The John Harbaugh Effect" (June 2026) — two-TE offense quote; giants.com OTA Cover 3 reports (May–June 2026) — spring highlight usage
empiresportsmedia "Isaiah Likely is the mismatch weapon" (June 2026) — 70%+ receiver-alignment claim, move/F-TE role
Wikipedia / ProFootballNetwork (fetched 2026-07-07) — July 2025 broken foot + surgery, missed Wks 1–3, Week 4 debut; 2022 draft R4 #139
PlayerProfiler Isaiah Likely page (fetched 2026-07-07) — athletic testing (4.88 forty, 87.1 speed score, 106.8 athleticism #24 TE), college dominator 31.4%, breakout age 18.4, FPPG ranks
clutchpoints/Yahoo (2023, fetched 2026-07-07) — 25-372-6 post-Andrews-injury stretch; 13.9 PPG final six 2023 starts
Bleacher Nation / FantasyPros / NBC Sports Chicago (fetched 2026-07-07) — Nagy TE history: Burton 2018 76 tgt at "80s" snaps, Graham 2020 50-456-8, 31.3% RZ target share; Reid-tree ~156.6 TE tgt/yr
PFR career pages (historical) — comp seasons (Jonnu Smith 2021/2024, Hunter Henry 2021, Gerald Everett 2022, Austin Hooper 2020)
UNVERIFIED: red-zone/end-zone target counts, true route counts, exact detached/blocking-snap rates, man/zone + MOF splits, xFP, external projections (no data/projections/)