Don't Look at My Team

Wan'Dale Robinson — WR, TEN (2026)

Verdict — TARGET (confidence: medium)

At ADP 90.2 (WR43, FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07), the market is pricing a TD-light 5'8" slot receiver on a 6.5-win team as a WR4 — the consensus framing is "borderline WR3, buy in PPR specifically" (ETR/Footballguys/CBS fallout pieces, 2026-03, via search 2026-07-07). That's a fair reading of his box scores, and it's still wrong. Why the market is wrong: it is charging a box-score price for two straight seasons of WR2-grade *expected* points — xFP 13.4/gm (2024) and 14.7/gm (2025), computed per-bucket from pbp — with the gap to actuals driven by things that just changed: NYG catchable-target rates of 71.4%/72.3% (QB-driven, not hands — his drop rate was 3.6%/2.1%) and TD scoring below xTD both years (3 vs 5.3; 4 vs 5.8). He has earned targets at ≥0.24 TPRR (0.259, 0.281) two straight seasons, and — uniquely at this price — his 140-target role travels with him: the play-caller who built it (Daboll) is the one who had Tennessee pay him $38M guaranteed to reprise it, and June minicamp reports already show him as Ward's most-targeted read. Confidence is medium, not high: a No. 4 overall rookie (Tate) holds the alpha claim, the offense is a year-1 install behind a concern-band interior OL, and the ceiling genuinely is capped by depth-of-target.

Bull case

Two years of WR2 usage priced as WR4 production: xFP 228.6/234.9 (13.4, 14.7/gm) vs 182.7/217.9 actual, with both underperformance channels — catchable-ball rate (71–72%) and TD conversion (3 vs 5.3 xTD, 4 vs 5.8) — attributable to the NYG QB room he just left. TPRR 0.259/0.281 and 28%+ third-down target share say the earning is his; the leakage wasn't.
The role travels with its architect, guaranteed: the play-caller who built his 140-target role signed him for $38M gtd to run it again, the depth chart already lists him as the unchallenged starting slot (Kuharsky 2026-06-16), and 2024 proves the role produced 140 targets *with* a 30.7%-TS alpha on the field — so Tate's arrival is priced into the precedent, not a threat to it. June camp reporting confirms first-read chemistry with Ward.
Price and asymmetry in this format: at 90.2 he's the WR43, behind Jayden Reed (84.1), Josh Downs (84.7) and Jordan Addison (94.5) — none of whom pair his two-year 140-target floor with play-caller continuity. The floor case (~140 PPR, his p20) roughly returns cost; the median (182) is a WR30–33 season two rounds cheap; the ceiling (235, his own 2025 shape plus normal TD luck) is a top-24 WR at a WR4 price.

Bear case

The 2025 breakout was a Nabers-shaped mirage and 2024 is the true self: TS was 18.8% before Nabers' wk-4 ACL, 26.4% after — injury-driven volume the evidence hierarchy explicitly discounts. In Tennessee the healthy-alpha condition returns (Tate at 1.04 + Ridley + Helm + two pass-catching backs), on ~540 team targets instead of NYG's ~600+ script-inflated attempts. 0.245 TPRR could easily be 0.21 in a crowded, installing offense — that's 100 targets and a WR45 season at a WR43 price.
The profile has never actually been efficient: YPRR 1.29 in the Daboll year, FD/RR 0.067–0.080 (concern band both years), career-high 4 TDs, 7 TDs in two seasons, aDOT 4.7 the last time this play-caller ran his role. A 5'8" receiver whose Daboll-mode output is 93-699-3 needs full-PPR and perfect health just to return value at pick 90 — and this league's PPR setting is still an unconfirmed placeholder.
Environment risk is real and correlated: 6.5-win team, year-1 install (Daboll's own NYG offenses were bottom-half scoring), concern-band interior OL, and a QB who took 55 sacks with a 59.8% completion rate. If Ward doesn't improve, the catch-rate/TD normalization the bull case needs never arrives, and every TEN pass-catcher — Robinson included — is a value trap together.

Projection & comps

Bottom-up (PPR, 17-week season). Team inputs from data/team-profiles/TEN.md (2026-07-07): ~62 plays/gm, ~60% dropback rate → ~37 dropbacks/gm, ~33 att/gm (~540 team targets pace).

Scenario	Games	Routes (RP × dropbacks)	TPRR	Targets	Rec (CR)	Yards (Y/T)	TD	PPR
Floor (p20)	15	~465 (84%)	0.22	102	66 (65%)	580 (5.7)	3	140
Median (p50)	16	~510 (86%)	0.245	125	84 (67%)	720 (5.8)	4.5	182
Ceiling (p80)	17	~550 (88%)	0.27	148	101 (68%)	975 (6.6)	6.5	235

Inputs: RP proxy 85.2% (2024) / 86.9% (2025) at NYG (participation.csv, computed 2026-07-07); TPRR 0.259 (2024, Daboll calling, Nabers healthy) / 0.281 (2025) on the same basis; catch rate 66.4%/65.7% on 71–72% catchable balls (receiving.csv, ngs_receiving.csv, ftn_charting.csv) — median assumes modest accuracy gain from Ward year 2 in Daboll's quick-game E-P system; Y/T spans his 2024 (5.0, 4.7 aDOT dumpoff role) and 2025 (7.2, 8.5 aDOT). TDs anchored to xTD (5.31 and 5.80 the last two years, computed per-bucket) discounted for a weaker offense — he has *underscored* expectation both years, so no negative TD regression is baked into the price. Rushing ignored (3 carries each year). Games-played risk: medium — 17 games 2024, 16 in 2025 (missed wk 14 ankle-adjacent, wk 18 rib/RES — injuries.csv, snap_counts.csv), 2022 rookie-year ACL (pre-2026 public record), 185 lbs; no current injury status (Sleeper, 2026-07-07).

Comp seasons:

Wan'Dale Robinson 2024 (self, NYG/Daboll) — 140 tgt, 93-699-3, 182.7 PPR/17 gms: the median shape — max volume, min depth — verified, receiving.csv 2024
Wan'Dale Robinson 2025 (self, NYG) — 140 tgt, 92-1014-4, 217.9/16: the ceiling shape when the tree adds intermediate depth — verified, receiving.csv 2025
Cole Beasley 2020 (BUF, Daboll OC) — 107 tgt, 82-967-4, ~204/15: the Daboll-slot precedent with a functional QB — pre-2026 public record, not in cache
Tyler Boyd 2019 (CIN) — 148 tgt, 90-1046-5, ~225: high-volume slot on a bad team — pre-2026 public record, not in cache
Khalil Shakir 2024 (BUF) — 100 tgt, 76-821-4, 182.5/15: slot-earner median analog — verified, receiving.csv 2024

Sanity check: no data/projections/ dir exists; no external projection on file. Market-implied expectation at WR43 is roughly 150–165 PPR; the median here (182, ≈WR30–33) disagrees by about two rounds of value, and the floor case (140) costs roughly nothing at pick 90.

Usage profile (wr.md §2 table)

Computed from nflverse REG-only tables pulled 2026-07-07 unless noted. RP/TPRR/YPRR use an on-field-during-charted-dropbacks proxy for routes (participation.csv; 540 routes 2024, 498 routes 2025). Note: both NYG seasons landed on exactly 140 targets; 2024 was Daboll calling plays, 2025 was Kafka.

Metric	2024	2025	Band	Read
Target share	25.3% (140 tgt, 17 gms)	27.8% (140 tgt, 16 gms)	Good/Elite	2024 came with Nabers commanding 30.7% — the two coexisted on huge volume; 2025 wk1–4 (Nabers healthy) was 18.8%, wk5+ 26.4%
TPRR	0.259	0.281	Elite	Two straight years above the 0.26 elite line (2024 a hair under); the earning rate is real and QB-independent
Route participation	85.2%	86.9%	Good	Steady, near-lock on passing downs; not the 90%+ elite band because of heavy sets
Air-yards share	17.0%	27.5%	Concern → Good	The 2025 jump is the Kafka-role artifact (aDOT 4.69 → 8.48); a Daboll offense with Tate/Ridley outside likely resets this to ~20%
WOPR	0.498	0.610	Good	Projected 2026 ~0.48–0.55 on TS ~24%/AYS ~20% — strong-flex, not alpha
RZ target share	27.3% (18 of 66)	16.1% (14 of 87)	Elite → Concern	The elite year was the Daboll year — he schemes his slot into the RZ; inside-10 targets 9 → 6
End-zone targets	5	10	Concern → mid	TD path thin but not absent; xTD 5.31/5.80 vs 3/4 actual — he's been TD-unlucky, not TD-starved
xFP (PPR, per-bucket)	228.6 (13.4/gm)	234.9 (14.7/gm)	WR2 usage	Underperformed by 46 pts (2024) and 17 pts (2025) — the §10 "elite xFP, market sees points not usage" green flag

The §2 2×2 read: high RP + high TPRR = established earner, not an expansion bet — the 2026 question is purely whether the earning rate survives the target competition, not whether the role exists. Per §3 evidence hierarchy, the 2025 volume spike is partly injury-driven (Nabers, wks 5+) and gets discounted; the 2024 season — 25.3% TS alongside a healthy 30.7%-TS alpha, under this exact play-caller — is the operative precedent for coexisting with Tate, and it's the better evidence anyway.

Target quality / route tree (wr.md §3): aDOT 4.69 (2024) → 8.48 (2025). 2024 depth mix: 20.7% behind LOS / 62.9% short / 13.6% intermediate / 2.9% deep — a 3-of-4-depths screens-and-underneath tree. 2025: 17.9 / 49.3 / 17.9 / 15.0 — earned at all four depths and proved the intermediate/deep wins are in the toolkit. MOF: pbp pass_location "middle" = 26.4% (2024) / 24.3% (2025) of targets — coarse 3-bucket proxy; true target-location MOF share UNVERIFIED (no Fantasy Points export in data/raw). Third-down target share 32.8% (2024) → 28.6% (2025) — an elite trust-chain number across two different QB rooms; survives negative scripts, which a 6.5-win team will supply. Designed touches: screens 10.7%/12.8% of targets, motion on 45.0%/42.6% of his targeted plays (FTN team-motion-on-play basis) — §3 says designed-touch roles are sticky *while the play-caller stays*; his play-caller moved with him, which converts the usual archetype risk into a feature.

Alignment (wr.md §4): NGS position SLOT_WR (rosters.csv 2024); Sleeper depth chart SWR (2026-07-07); Kuharsky depth chart has him as the starting slot with KJ Osborn behind (2026-06-16, via TEN.md); led all NFL WRs in slot receiving yards (622) in 2025 (SI contract piece, 2026-03, via TEN.md). Precise 2025 slot-snap % UNVERIFIED. 5'8"/185 — no big-slot RZ mismatch, and press exposure outside would be a problem, but nobody is asking him to play outside: Tate (X) and Ridley (Z) hold the boundary.

Coverage splits (wr.md §5, participation-charting join, internally consistent denominators): 2024 — TPRR 0.238 / YPRR 1.08 vs man (CR 61%), 0.220 / 1.21 vs zone (CR 72%); 2025 — 0.200 / 1.30 vs man (CR 51%), 0.262 / 1.96 vs zone (CR 71%). Classic zone-beater slot: option-route spacing feel, floor-stable, and man coverage is the weak split (2025 CR vs man 51% — some of that is NYG QB accuracy into tight windows). NGS separation 3.25 → 3.37 (above-average, slot-aided). Contested-ball rate on targets 17.1% → 14.2% — low contested reliance, nothing fragile being priced. The profile survives both coverage worlds on earning rate, wins clearly in zone — and Daboll's short-motion structures are how he's historically been protected from man.

Efficiency (wr.md §6): YPRR 1.29 (2024, concern) → 2.04 (2025, good) — the concern year is structurally explained by a 4.7 aDOT role, but a bear is entitled to it. FD/RR 0.067 → 0.080 (below good both years — the honest weak spot of a short-depth tree). YAC over expected +0.34 both years (positive 2 yrs = the sticky band, ngs_receiving.csv). Drop rate 3.6% → 2.1% (elite; FTN). Catch% 66.4/65.7 against 71.4%/72.3% catchable-ball rates — the §6 "high TPRR + low catch rate with a bad QB = buy signal" case: the inefficiency is heavily QB-attributable, and Ward-plus-Daboll doesn't need to be good, just league-average-accurate underneath, for the catch rate to jump.

Archetype (§8) / patterns (§9): slot volume — "stable PPR floor; needs red-zone role for ceiling; best slightly under market." He is under market, and the RZ role showed up specifically in the Daboll year (27.3% RZ TS). Age 25 (born 2001-01-05, rosters.csv), year 5, 2022 R2 pick 43 (rosters.csv) — inside the possession/slot longevity window with zero age discount needed. Not a breakout screen; a paid, proven role changing venue with its architect.

Context (data/team-profiles/TEN.md, built 2026-07-07)

Play-caller: Daboll (OC, calls plays, year 1) — the FA class was literally built around Daboll familiarity, Robinson the headline ($70M/4, $38M gtd). His system manufactures a huge short-aDOT slot/outlet role (Robinson's own 140-target 2024) alongside one alpha at historic volume (Diggs 2020, Nabers 170 tgt/30.7% in 2024). Both roles fed at once in 2024 — that's the 2026 blueprint with Tate as the alpha.
Correction to the team profile: TEN.md cites Robinson's Daboll-year line as "92-1,014-4 on 140 targets, 4.8 aDOT, 7.5 Y/R" — that conflates two seasons. Cached CSVs (receiving.csv, pulled 2026-07-07): 2024 (Daboll) = 93-699-3 on 140 tgt, aDOT 4.69, 7.5 Y/R; 2025 (Kafka) = 92-1014-4 on 140 tgt, aDOT 8.48, 11.0 Y/R. This eval uses the CSV values throughout.
QB: Ward year 2 (No. 1 overall, benching risk none): 323/540, 3,169-15-7, 55 sacks in 2025 (passing.csv). Concern-band, but the E-P quick game is the scheme fix, and its first read is the slot. Contingency (TEN.md): a Trubisky relief scenario *compresses the offense toward Robinson* — his floor is QB-change-resistant, rare at this price.
Volume: ~62 plays/gm, ~60% dropback, ~33 att/gm, win total 6.5 (BetMGM via TEN.md, 2026-07-07) — mildly negative script, which feeds a third-down/outlet slot rather than starving him.
Competition: Tate (R1.4) owns the X and the air-yards claim; Ridley (Z, age 31 season, 7-game 2025) is the fade-risk third wheel; Helm at TE and Pollard/Spears checkdowns compete underneath — the real threat to the 0.245 TPRR median. Ayomanor/Dike squeezed to WR4/5. Slot backups (Osborn, UDFA-class Restrepo) are camp-depth noise, not claims.
OL: interior is the risk (two open battles at C/RG) — and interior pressure hurts the deep game while *helping* quick-slot profiles (wr.md §7). Robinson is the beneficiary of TEN's OL problem, not its victim.
Camp signal (June 2026): early OTA miscommunications gave way to "Ward and Robinson connected often" in minicamp scrimmages; beat coverage projects him as "Ward's most reliable target" to open the season (atozsports minicamp notebook, 2026-06-17; titansized, 2026-06).

Tripwires (void this eval; re-run)

Camp/preseason pecking-order reports flip — Tate dominating first-team targets with Robinson visibly third behind Ridley, or any reporting that moves Robinson out of the primary slot role.
ADP rises past ~68 overall (≈WR33) — the two-round value edge is consumed; verdict decays to HOLD.
Ward camp regression or injury that reaches the tier-C QBs (Levis/Hooker) — a Trubisky bridge holds the thesis, a tier-C QB does not.
Robinson injury recurrence (rib/ankle/soft-tissue) costing camp or preseason reps — at 185 lbs with a 2022 ACL in the history, games-risk flips high.
League scoring confirms non-PPR or half-PPR — the reception-heavy math above no longer holds; re-run under actual settings.

Sources

data/stats/2025/ + data/stats/2024/ — receiving.csv (140/140 tgt, TS 25.3%/27.8%, AYS 17.0%/27.5%), ngs_receiving.csv (separation, aDOT/IAY, YACOE, catch%), snap_counts.csv (2025 snap %, missed wks 14/18), weekly.csv (weekly PPR, Nabers wks 1–4 only in 2025), injuries.csv (ankle/foot/rib listings; wk-18 Out — rib), rosters.csv (DOB 2001-01-05, 5'8"/185, Kentucky, 2022 R2.43 NYG, SLOT_WR, wk-18 RES), participation.csv (RP proxy 85.2%/86.9%, routes 540/498, coverage-type mix) — nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07, REG only
nflverse pbp 2024–2025 via nflreadpy (REG only, computed 2026-07-07, scratch scripts): aDOT 4.69/8.48, depth mix, pass_location proxy, RZ TS 27.3%/16.1%, inside-10 (9/6) and end-zone targets (5/10), third-down TS 32.8%/28.6%, wk1–4 vs wk5+ 2025 TS split (18.8%/26.4%), EPA/target (−0.173/+0.138), xFP 228.6/234.9 and xTD 5.31/5.80 (league per-bucket rates: air-yards bin × RZ/field), man/zone TPRR-YPRR splits (participation join)
data/stats/*/ftn_charting.csv joined to pbp (computed 2026-07-07): drops 3.6%/2.1%, catchable-ball 71.4%/72.3%, contested 17.1%/14.2%, screens 10.7%/12.8%, motion-on-play 45.0%/42.6%
data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv — ADP 90.2, WR43; neighbors Reed 84.1, Downs 84.7, Addison 94.5; TEN stack: Tate 62.6, Ward 92.1, Ridley 160.5
data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json — team TEN, SWR, age 25, years_exp 4, no injury status
data/team-profiles/TEN.md (built 2026-07-07) — Daboll/Saleh regime, E-P scheme read, volume projection (~62 plays, ~60% dropback, ~33 att/gm), vacated-target math, pecking order, OL battles, win total 6.5, Kuharsky depth chart (2026-06-16), Robinson contract 4/$70M ($38M gtd) — with the 2024/2025 stat-line conflation corrected in §4 above from cached CSVs
atozsports "Titans Minicamp Notebook" (2026-06-17, fetched 2026-07-07): Ward–Robinson connection improving through June minicamp; Robinson a WR lock; no health concerns
titansized "$70 million gamble" (June 2026, fetched 2026-07-07): consistent chemistry through offseason program, "go-to target" framing
Establish The Run / Footballguys / CBS Sports signing-fallout pieces (2026-03, via search 2026-07-07): market framing — "borderline WR3," "buy in PPR formats specifically"
Pre-2026 public record (not in cache): 2022 rookie-year ACL; comp lines for Beasley 2020, Boyd 2019, Landry 2016
UNVERIFIED: precise slot-snap % (only the league-best 622 slot yards claim via SI/TEN.md), true MOF target-location share (pbp pass_location used as coarse proxy), provider xFP (internal per-bucket computation used instead), Robinson-specific motion rate (team motion-on-play used as proxy)