Don't Look at My Team

Colby Parkinson — TE, LAR (2026)

Scoring note: The evaluator brief said to assume full PPR ("PPR (assumed)") because league-settings had placeholders. methodology/league-settings.md was confirmed 2026-07-08 as half PPR (0.5/rec), 6pt pass TD, no TE premium — this eval uses the confirmed half-PPR scoring as primary and gives full-PPR equivalents in §2. No TE premium + 1 TE slot means punt-is-default posture per te.md §7; nothing here shifts Parkinson's tier under either scoring.

Roster-status verification (deep-pool check): Confirmed on the Rams as of this writing. A Wikipedia edit claims LAR released him 2026-06-29 and Seattle signed him hours later — no news outlet, transaction wire, or database corroborates it. OverTheCap shows the contract Active with LAR through 2026, no dead-money event (fetched 2026-07-08); Sleeper player feed lists him LAR/Active (2026-07-07); Ourlads lists him LAR TE1 (fetched 2026-07-07); SI Rams coverage dated 2026-07-06 discusses his central 2026 role. Treated as false/vandalism. The underlying cut-candidate chatter is real, though — final contract year, $9.08M cap hit, ~$7.0M savings if released (OverTheCap/Spotrac, fetched 2026-07-08; B/R-via-Yahoo cut-candidate piece, July 2026; Last Word on Sports, 2026-06-11) — and it is tripwire #1.

Verdict

HOLD (medium confidence) at a mock-undrafted price. Parkinson is a blocking-Y/red-zone-specialist hybrid whose career-year 2025 (43-408-8) was built on a ~2x TD-rate spike over expectation, a sub-45% route participation that fails the te.md §2 gate, and a late-season snap surge caused by Tyler Higbee's injury — and the 2026 room got *more* crowded (Higbee re-signed 2 years, R2 #61 Max Klare added, year-2 R2 Terrance Ferguson ascending). His median projection sits below the streamer baseline in a 1-TE, no-premium league; even his 80th-percentile outcome is a fringe TE2. The market prices him at zero and the market is right — profile, tier, and price agree, so there is no TARGET or AVOID thesis to write. Do not draft; he's an in-season waiver watch only if the room thins and the red-zone role survives.

Bull case

The one elite trait is real: 22 RZ targets, T-3rd among NFL TEs (2025) — on an offense that will again live in the red zone (11.5 win total). If the goal-line package role persists, 5–7 TDs are repeatable and he's a bye-week TD dart.
2025 TPRR 0.22 / YPRR 1.61 on 253 routes is the te.md green flag "earning elite with routes the only missing piece" — in his one extended-routes stretch (wk14+) he posted 2.33 YPRR at a 64% route share and 12.9 PPR PPG (weeks 10–18, CBS).
He is the incumbent lead Y (Ourlads TE1) whom beat coverage calls central to the 13-personnel identity; Higbee is 33 and missed six weeks in 2025 — one injury re-creates the exact conditions of his late-2025 TE1 run, at zero acquisition cost.

Bear case

He fails the RP gate in both seasons (~43% and ~51%) — a part-time blocker whose 8-TD season still produced only 7.2 half-PPR PPG, *below* the TE streaming baseline. The career year, at its TD-spiked best, wasn't startable in this format.
The TD rate (14.3%/tgt, ~2x expectation) is the classic small-sample TE trap, and every comp season (Tonyan '20, Knox '21, Henry '21) collapsed the following year; strip the spike and the median is ~5 half-PPR PPG.
The routes he'd need were just claimed twice over: Higbee re-signed for two years, Ferguson (R2 '25) is listed TE1 on Sleeper's depth chart, and the Rams spent R2 #61 on Klare — while Parkinson himself is a documented June/July 2026 cap-cut candidate in a contract year.

Projection & comps

Half PPR (league scoring, confirmed 2026-07-08), bottom-up from routes:

	Routes	TPRR	Tgt	Rec	Yds	TD	Half-PPR	PPR equiv
Floor (p20)	~200 (role recedes to Ferguson/Klare, or camp cut → depth role elsewhere)	0.16	32	23	230	2	45	~57
Median (p50)	~275 (RP ~46% of ~625 dropbacks, 16 gm)	0.185	51	37	370	4	80	~98
Ceiling (p80)	~360 (Higbee misses time again, Klare redshirts, late-2025 role holds)	0.21	75	55	530	7	125	~150

Team volume inputs: ~64.5 plays/gm, ~58% dropback, ~625 dropbacks (team profile, 2026-07-07; nflverse pbp_summary 2025: 660 pass plays, pulled 2026-07-07).
TD anchor: 8 TD on 56 targets (14.3%/tgt) is roughly double the TE norm on a 4.43 aDOT. Internal xTD estimate off his elite RZ target count: ~4–5. Median uses 4; ceiling 7 requires the RZ role repeating at T-3-in-the-NFL volume. No provider xFP available — 2025 usage-based xFP internally estimated at ~6.5–7.0 PPG PPR vs 8.7 actual (TD-driven overperformance ~25–30 pts). Marked as internal estimate, not provider xFP.
Median = 5.0 half-PPR PPG, below a TE12+streaming baseline (~8–9 half-PPR PPG). Ceiling = ~7.8 PPG, still sub-baseline.
Games risk: medium — missed wk2 (shoulder) and wk6 (concussion) in 2025 (nflverse injuries.csv); age 27; high-collision blocking role. Roster risk (cap cut) is separate and covered by tripwire #1.
Comps (TD-spike part-timers, year N+1): Robert Tonyan 2020→21 (11 TD on 59 tgt → irrelevance), Dawson Knox 2021→22 (9 TD on 71 tgt → sub-streamer), Hunter Henry 2021→22 (9 TD → 2 TD), Mo Alie-Cox 2021–22 (elite-blocker TD dart, never rosterable season-long). Every comp fell out of the startable pool the following season.

Usage profile (te.md §2 table)

Metric	2025	2024	Verdict
Route participation	~43% (253 routes ÷ ~582 est. team dropbacks in his 15 gm; routes: SumerSports fetched 2026-07-08, dropbacks: nflverse pbp_summary)	~51% (300 ÷ ~594 est.)	FAILS the <55% gate — part-time player; ends the eval at streamer/AVOID territory per te.md §2
TPRR	0.22 (253 routes)	0.16	Elite band in 2025, but a one-year jump; evidence hierarchy requires 2 seasons before believing an efficiency change
YPRR	1.61	0.98	Good band 2025 / concern 2024 — same one-year-spike caveat
Target share	9.6%	9.1%	Concern (<12% = streamer ceiling); has never averaged 4 tgt/gm in 6 seasons (CBS, 2026-06-08)
RZ targets	22 — T-3rd among NFL TEs (FantasyPros/SI reporting, fetched 2026-07-08)	UNVERIFIED	Elite — the one genuinely elite trait; sustains the TD floor if role holds
End-zone targets	UNVERIFIED	UNVERIFIED	No provider export available
Detached rate (slot/wide)	UNVERIFIED exact; qualitatively inline-heavy — "ace blocker… from in-line positions" (Nate Tice via SI, 2026-07-06); aDOT 4.43 = leak-out/checkdown route tree	UNVERIFIED	Concern — profile is a blocking Y, not a big slot
Run/pass-block snap rates	UNVERIFIED exact; blocking is his stated primary job (SI 2026-07-06: run-game explosive rate 14.5% with him vs 10.4% without)	UNVERIFIED	Believe the blocking (te.md §3)
xFP	~6.5–7.0 PPG PPR, internal estimate (no provider xFP)	—	Below streamer line

The late-season split and why it doesn't carry: from wk14 on, 63.9% route share and 2.33 YPRR (FantasyPros wk16 outlook, Dec 2025); snap share 86/86/78/84% wks 15–18 (nflverse snap_counts). That surge maps exactly onto Higbee's absence (no Higbee snaps wks 12–17). Higbee re-signed for 2 years in March 2026 and the team spent R2 #61 on Klare a month later — the role-change condition that created the split was reversed, then further crowded. Per te.md §2 a late split outweighs the season number only when the role persists; this one demonstrably does not.

RGS/pedigree note (deep-pool screen): 2020 R4 #133 (SEA), Stanford, 6'7"/251, age 27, year 7 — outside every breakout window (TE year-3 pattern long past); no post-hype angle. NGS 2025: 3.55 avg separation, +0.44 YAC over expected (nflverse ngs_receiving) — fine, not mismatch-grade.

Context (team profile, 2026-07-07)

Offense: elite — Stafford (reigning MVP, age 38, medium games-risk), 11.5 win total, PROE +3 to +6, PA 32.7% (elite band, TE-friendly), OL top-8 both phases. Offense quality is the *only* multiplier working for him.
Scheme: McVay's 2025 shift to 30.2% 13-personnel (nflverse participation) makes the TE room fantasy-relevant in aggregate — 150 TE targets in 2025 — but split four ways: Parkinson 56, Higbee 36, Allen 33, Ferguson 25 (nflverse receiving.csv). No LAR TE cleared 56 targets. SI (2026-07-06) frames Parkinson as the 13-personnel "engine" — as a blocker.
Competition (the eval-defining section): five claims on routes. Higbee re-signed 2 yrs (ESPN FA tracker, Mar 2026); Ferguson (2025 R2 #46) is the seam/vertical TE (466 air yds on 25 tgt) with late-2025 route growth — Sleeper's depth chart already lists Ferguson TE1, Parkinson TE2 (2026-07-07), while Ourlads says Parkinson TE1 (2026-07-07); Klare (2026 R2 #61) profiles detached per beat coverage (Turf Show Times, July 2026). Two R2-capital receiving TEs behind an inline blocker is a route-share death sentence per te.md §6 ("team drafting a TE in rounds 1–3 splits the only resource that matters").
Hierarchy: Nacua (28.6% TS) and Adams (19.6% TS, 14 rec TD — the RZ alpha) own the target tree; Parkinson is at best the 4th option, contested. Vacated targets ≈ 15 (nothing to inherit).
Contract: final year, $9.08M cap / $7.0M savings if cut (OTC/Spotrac, fetched 2026-07-08); documented cut-candidate reporting June–July 2026. Contract-year status also caps any team investment in expanding his role.

Scarcity-tier placement (te.md §7)

Below the punt tier. Not pay-up (RP/TS nowhere near), not dead-zone (no round-5–8 price exists), and not even the right last-2-rounds punt dart: punt-tier picks want "one elite trait *plus* a role bet," and his role bet points the wrong way. In this no-premium, half-PPR, 1-TE league the punt/stream posture is default, and Parkinson's median sits ~3 PPG *under* the streamer baseline — he is part of the stream pool, not a roster hold. Portfolio note: the LAR TE worth a watch-list slot is Terrance Ferguson (year-2 R2, seam profile, route growth, also free) — he owns the breakout-screen path in this room, not Parkinson.

Tripwires

Rams release Parkinson (live chatter, ~$7M savings) → re-run at the new team; a landing spot with vacant TE1 routes flips him to a deep-league waiver TARGET.
Camp/preseason shows Ferguson or Klare as the clear lead receiving TE with the 1s (or Parkinson pass-blocking/pure-inline in preseason) → drop to plain AVOID, remove from watch list.
Higbee (33) injury or release → Parkinson's late-2025 role (60%+ routes + RZ package) goes live → re-run; streamer relevance.
Any real ADP appears (top-24 TE) → someone is drafting the TD spike → verdict flips to FADE at that price.
League scoring re-confirmed with a TE premium → re-run §7 math (helps route-runners more than him; verdict likely unchanged).

Sources

data/stats/2025/receiving.csv, ngs_receiving.csv, snap_counts.csv, injuries.csv, pbp_summary.csv, rosters.csv; data/stats/2024/receiving.csv, pbp_summary.csv — nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07
data/team-profiles/LAR.md — built 2026-07-07 (13-personnel 30.2%, PA 32.7%, hierarchy, win total 11.5, TE-room table)
data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json — age 27, LAR/Active, depth order TE2 (Ferguson TE1)
data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv — no Parkinson ADP; TE22 = pick 168.1; ADP basis: mock-undrafted (Sleeper search-rank tail, 2026-07-07 per evaluator brief)
SumerSports player page — 2025: 253 routes, 0.22 TPRR, 1.61 YPRR; 2024: 300 routes, 0.16 TPRR, 0.98 YPRR — fetched 2026-07-08
SI Rams (2026-07-06): 13-personnel X-factor piece, Nate Tice blocking quotes, on-field splits; FantasyPros wk16 2025 outlook (Dec 2025): wk14+ 63.9% route share, 2.33 YPRR; 22 RZ targets T-3rd among TEs (FantasyPros/SI 2025 reporting, fetched 2026-07-08)
CBS Sports "2026 Outlook: Colby Parkinson" (2026-06-08): regression case, "don't recommend drafting," never 4 tgt/gm
OverTheCap / Spotrac (fetched 2026-07-08): contract Active LAR through 2026, $9.08M cap, $7.0M savings; B/R-via-Yahoo + Last Word on Sports (2026-06-11) cut-candidate reporting; Turf Show Times TE-room coverage (July 2026)
Wikipedia release-and-Seattle-signing claim: checked and rejected — uncorroborated by OTC, Sleeper, Ourlads, ESPN, or any news outlet as of 2026-07-08
UNVERIFIED: exact inline/detached alignment %, run/pass-block snap rates, end-zone targets, provider xFP