Don't Look at My Team

Tory Horton — WR, Seattle Seahawks (2026)

Verdict

TARGET (medium confidence) at a free price — the classic deep-pool contingent-value flier. Horton is a 23-year-old, elite-testing (RAS 9.79) year-2 WR who produced 5 receiving TDs plus a punt-return TD in 8 rookie games before shin surgery ended his season, and he sits directly behind an age-33 Cooper Kupp on the defending Super Bowl champions. Why the market is wrong: the tail-rank price is still paying for the IR stint — but Macdonald said on 2026-06-11 that Horton should be ready "early on in camp if not the beginning of camp," Seattle added no veteran WR and only R6 draft capital (Emmanuel Henderson Jr., No. 199) at the position, and Horton's pedigree profile (38.7% college dominator, 19.8 breakout age, 4.41 forty) is elite everywhere except the pick number. This is not a starter projection — his 2025 earning rates (TPRR 0.157, RP 60%) were genuinely weak and the offense is the league's most run-tilted — it is an option on the No. 2/3 target claim in a champion offense, at a cost of zero. At undrafted, positive expected value is easy to clear; do not pay a real pick (top-150) for it.

Bull case

Cheapest possible option on a real succession path: Kupp is 33, was already at a modest 15.4% TS in 2025, and Seattle put no capital behind him; Shaheed shares Horton's vertical archetype and has his own soft-tissue history. Week 9 of 2025 is the proof-of-concept: Kupp out → Horton 81.5% routes, 4-4-48-2. One decline event or injury turns Horton into a ~15–18% TS starter on the champs.
Pedigree says the pick number lied: 38.7% dominator (81st pct), 19.8 breakout age, 27.9% college target share, RAS 9.79, 4.41 at 6'2" — that's day-2 tools and production that fell to R5 largely because of a 2024 knee injury; he then out-produced his draft slot immediately (6 total TDs in 8 games, rookie).
The market is pricing the IR memory, not the July reality: HC on record expecting camp-day-1 availability; a healthy Horton with any preseason buzz doesn't stay undrafted, so the free window is now — and worst case the cost of being wrong is a waiver drop.

Bear case

He didn't earn targets when he was on the field: TPRR 0.157 and YPRR ~1.15 are below-startable rates, and the 5-TD splash rode a 22.7% TD-per-target rate that will not repeat. Strip the TD luck and the rookie tape is a rotational deep decoy (usage-based ~4–5 PPG).
Worst passing environment in football for a WR4: ~29 attempts/g, a 35.8%-share alpha, ~50% multi-TE/FB sets, and five claims (JSN, Kupp, Barner, Shaheed, RBs) ahead of him — even the "wins the No. 3 job" outcome may be Jauan-Jennings-2023 numbers if everyone stays healthy.
Availability is a pattern, not an event: knee ended 2024 (college), shin surgery + groin ended 2025, and he hadn't practiced as of mid-June minicamp. Two straight lost second halves for a speed-dependent profile is a real re-injury and conditioning risk (games risk: high).

Projection & comps

Bottom-up, full PPR (assumed), 17-game season, team volume per data/team-profiles/SEA.md: ~61 plays/g, ~53% pass, ~29 pass att/g → ~455 team targets (2025 actual: 455 REG targets — receiving.csv).

Scenario	Games	Routes	TPRR	Targets	Line	PPR pts
Floor (p20)	10–12	~170	0.15	~25	15-200-1.5	~42
Median (p50)	15	~300 (RP ~65%)	0.17	~50	29-390-3.5	~88
Ceiling (p80)	16	~420 (RP ~80% back half after Kupp erosion)	0.19	~80	47-680-7	~158

TDs anchored to a deep-aDOT xTD rate (~0.06–0.09 TD/target), not his 2025 actual 22.7% TD-per-target (5 TD on 22 targets), which is extreme positive variance and pure regression fodder. Provider xTD/xFP: UNVERIFIED (no export on file).
Punt-return role (11 returns, 193 yds, 1 TD in 2025 — weekly.csv) adds small bonus equity in leagues scoring return TDs; excluded from the triple.
Games-played risk: high — two consecutive seasons ended by injury (2024 college knee; 2025 NFL shin surgery + groin), plus a rookie-year ankle listing (injuries.csv). Not yet practicing as of 2026-06-11 minicamp.

Comp seasons (role/profile sanity check):

Darius Slayton 2019 NYG (R5 rookie deep threat who got routes): 48-740-8 — what the ceiling path looks like when the routes arrive.
Rashid Shaheed 2023 NO (deep-threat WR3 with return duties, low-volume offense): 46-719-5 — the healthy WR45-ish outcome.
Christian Watson 2023 GB (soft-tissue-limited deep threat): 28-422-5 in 9 games — the TD-dependent, availability-capped middle.
Jauan Jennings 2023 SF (Shanahan-tree WR3 squeezed by heavy personnel): 19-265-1 — the floor if the 12/21-personnel diet holds and everyone stays healthy.

Usage profile (2025 rookie season, 8 games, weeks 1–9)

All local numbers from data/stats/2025/ (nflverse, pulled 2026-07-07); routes derived from participation.csv dropback join (computed 2026-07-08, approximate).

Metric	2025 value	Band vs wr.md §2	Read
Targets	22 (2.75/g)	—	Tiny sample; splash per target
Target share	4.8% full season; ~10.7% while active (22 of ~206 team targets wks 1–9, W1 team targets estimated from dropbacks)	Concern (<18%)	WR4 target queue position
TPRR	0.157 (22/140 routes)	Concern (<0.18)	Did not earn targets at a startable rate — the honest core weakness
Route participation	60.1% (140/233 dropbacks); W9 with Kupp out: 81.5%	Concern (<70%)	Rotational; the W9 spike is the contingent-path proof: when Kupp sat, Horton ran near-full routes and posted 4-48-2
Air-yards share	9.2% season; ~17% while active (estimated from weekly AYS)	Concern	Deep-ball garnish, not a claim
WOPR (active window)	~0.28	Concern (<0.40)	Consistent with WR4
aDOT	15.3 (337 air yds / 22 tgt)	Deep band (>14)	Volatile, TD-dependent archetype per wr.md §3
YPRR	~1.15 (161/140)	Concern (<1.5)	Deep routes at low target rate; sample too small to condemn talent
Red-zone / end-zone targets	UNVERIFIED (no player-level RZ table on file; no provider export)	—	5 TDs suggest end-zone looks existed, lengths unverified
Drop rate / catchable-target rate	UNVERIFIED (ftn_charting is play-level, no receiver join built)	—	—
Slot/wide split	UNVERIFIED exact; team profile lists him rotational Z/slot behind Kupp (SWR) and Shaheed (RWR) — Ourlads via SEA.md, 2026-07-07	—	Positional-change protocol not triggered; same role, deeper health
xFP	UNVERIFIED (provider) — actual 8.1 PPR PPG was TD-inflated; usage supported roughly 4–5 PPG	—	Market memory of "5 TDs in 8 games" is efficiency, not usage
Man/zone splits	UNVERIFIED	—	—

The §2 2×2 read: low RP and low TPRR = capped in the observed role — this is why the verdict leans on the contingent path plus pedigree (evidence-hierarchy level 4, explicitly justified because the NFL sample is 140 routes and the role ahead of him is age-fragile), not on the usage record.

Pedigree block (prospect-pedigree.md §§1–3): Draft capital R5, No. 166, 2025 (seahawks.com) — day-3, the one weak input ("needs usage proof"). College: 265-3,615-27 career; back-to-back 1,000+ yard seasons at Colorado State 2022–23; 2024 season cut short by knee injury (seahawks.com/NFL.com draft profile, verified 2026-07-08). PlayerProfiler (fetched 2026-07-08): breakout age 19.8 (69th pct — "Good" band), college dominator 38.7% (81st pct — Elite band), college target share 27.9% (84th pct), speed score 106.5 (87th pct). Athletic testing: RAS 9.79 — 73rd of 3,445 WRs since 1987 (ras.football via X, 2025-03), 4.41 forty at 6'2"/196 (NFL combine, seahawks.com). Age 23 (b. 2002-11-29 — Sleeper 2026-07-07); entering NFL year 2, squarely inside the WR year-2/3 breakout window — though he misses the formal year-2 screen on both capital (R5) and rookie TPRR (0.157 < 0.22).

Context (from `data/team-profiles/SEA.md`, built/verified 2026-07-07)

Champion offense, minimal pass volume: SEA won Super Bowl LX; Vegas win total 10.5 (DK via CBS, 2026-07-01) → positive script, sustained run lean. Projected ~29 pass att/g, PROE −6.8%, neutral pass 52.8% (23rd), ~50% multi-TE/FB personnel — the profile the team file calls the "WR3 death band."
Play-caller: Klint Kubiak left (Raiders HC); first-time caller Brian Fleury explicitly aims "to maintain" the offense (NFL.com, Feb 2026). Stability rated low, but continuity of shape is the stated plan.
QB: Sam Darnold, secure through 2027, no benching risk. O-line returns 5/5 starters, PBWR 12th — supports a deep tree adequately.
Target hierarchy: JSN is a historic funnel (35.8% TS, record extension); then Kupp (age 33, 15.4% TS, $13.5M, slot), Barner (TE1, post-surgery), Shaheed (Z deep threat, re-signed 3yr/up to $51M), RB layer (13.6%), then Horton contested with TE2 Arroyo for the No. 6 claim. Vacated targets only ~36 (Walker III) — no vacated-target windfall.
Horton-specific: shin surgery post-W9 2025; "accelerated" recovery, no spring practice, Macdonald on 2026-06-11: ready "early on in camp if not the beginning of camp" (SI). Sleeper lists him Questionable (2026-07-07). Team profile watch item #5 explicitly flags him as able to "push past Kupp by midseason." Seattle added no WR above R6 all offseason.

Tripwires (void this eval; re-run on trigger)

Shin setback — opens camp on PUP/NFI or misses practice past mid-August → downgrade toward AVOID (roster-clog at any cost).
Seattle adds a veteran WR (trade or signing of consequence) → re-run; the succession thesis dies.
Kupp released, traded, or injured — or camp reports Horton running ahead of Kupp/Shaheed in 3-WR sets → immediate upgrade re-run; ceiling path activates pre-draft.
ADP rises inside ~150 overall / WR55 (Sleeper or FFC) → free-price thesis voided; re-judge at the new price.
Fleury's install drifts pass-heavier than the Kubiak prior in preseason (neutral pass rate ≥ 55%) → volume assumption too conservative; re-run.

Sources

data/stats/2025/receiving.csv, weekly.csv, snap_counts.csv, injuries.csv, participation.csv, passing.csv (nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07). Routes/RP/TPRR computed 2026-07-08 from participation.csv dropback join (approximate — dropback proxy = time_to_throw or charted route present).
data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json — age, size, depth chart (RWR #4), injury status Questionable, search_rank 199.
data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv — Horton: no FFC pick; row sourced sleeper-searchrank 2026-07-08. SEA context ADPs: JSN 5.8, Shaheed 132.6, Darnold 144.2, Kupp 169.1 (ffc-ppr, 2026-07-07).
data/team-profiles/SEA.md (built + verification rebuild 2026-07-07) — coaching, scheme, volume, hierarchy, OL, win total, Horton recovery watch item.
SI Seahawks On SI, 2026-06-11 — Macdonald: ready "early on in camp if not the beginning of camp"; shin surgery/IR history. Corroborated by seahawks.com OTA day-1 injury updates, fox13seattle.com Seahawks Notebook, mynorthwest injury updates (May–June 2026), heavy.com rehab progress (fetched 2026-07-08).
RotoWire SEA depth chart (fetched 2026-07-08) — WR room JSN/Kupp/Shaheed/Horton.
seahawks.com draft release (April 2025) — R5, pick No. 166. PlayerProfiler player page (fetched 2026-07-08) — breakout age 19.8, dominator 38.7%, college TS 27.9%, speed score 106.5, 2025 counting stats. ras.football via X (2025-03) — RAS 9.79, 73/3,445. NFL.com combine — 4.41 forty.
methodology/league-settings.md — half PPR/6pt pass TD confirmed 2026-07-08 (see scoring note); eval triple kept in assumed full PPR for board comparability.

*Board note: evaluations/boards/2026/board.md is now stale — run /draft-board update.*