Seattle Seahawks

SEA — team profile

Built per methodology/team-context.md. Every number needs a source + as-of date or the UNVERIFIED mark. Position evals cite this file; they do not re-research it.

Context: Seattle went 14-3 in 2025 (NFC No. 1 seed) and won Super Bowl LX 29-13 over New England — first title since 2013 (seahawks.com / NFL.com championship coverage; corroborated by 2026 betting previews framing SEA as "defending Super Bowl champions" — CBS Sports; verified 2026-07-07). OC Klint Kubiak left to become Raiders HC (Feb 2026 — NFL.com "New Seahawks OC Brian Fleury: goal is 'to maintain' Klint Kubiak's offense," verified 2026-07-07). Super Bowl MVP RB Kenneth Walker III left in free agency (KC, 3yr/$43.05M — ESPN, verified 2026-07-07).

Play-caller

• Calls plays: Brian Fleury, OC — confirmed, and it is his first play-calling job at any level of the NFL (ESPN, 2026-06-03: Darnold sees little "transition"; Macdonald: "all play callers have to be first-time play callers" — seahawks.com hire announcement + NFL.com, verified 2026-07-07; staff finalized 2026-03-12, seahawks.com).
• Tenure with team: 1st season (7 prior seasons on Kyle Shanahan's 49ers staff — defensive QC 2019, offense from 2020, TE coach from 2022, run game coordinator title added 2025 — seahawks.com/NFL.com hire coverage, verified 2026-07-07) · Prior relationship with QB1: overlapped with Darnold in SF in 2023 (Fleury TE coach, Darnold backup QB — fox13seattle.com, Feb 2026).

Last 3 play-calling stops (skip non-calling years):

Read: Fleury has never called plays, so per methodology §9 every tendency is a low-confidence system prior, not a Fleury track record — but the continuity claim is unusually strong and explicit: Fleury's stated goal is "to maintain" Kubiak's offense (NFL.com/seahawks.com, 2026), and Darnold sees little "transition" (ESPN, 2026-06-03). Expect the 2025 shape: deeply run-tilted (−6.8% PROE, 52.8% neutral pass rate, bottom-quartile pace), heavy 12/21/22 personnel (~50% multi-TE/FB sets — WR3 death band), high motion and play-action, a starved RB target share (13.6%), below-average inside-10 pass rate (42.5% — RB/goal-line run equity), and a monster funnel to the WR1 — JSN's 35.8% target share led the league. Fleury has flagged "tempo, physicality and aggressiveness" as emphases (fox13seattle.com, Feb 2026), so pace could tick up, but bake in a first-year install drag on any new wrinkles.

QB situation

• QB1: Sam Darnold — signed 3yr/$100.5M (ESPN/Spotrac, March 2025), under contract through 2027; 2026 option resolved March 2026 (fox13seattle.com option-deadline report). Benching risk: none — reigning Super Bowl champion QB. 2025: 323/477 (67.7%), 4,048 yds, 25 TD / 14 INT, 27 sacks (data/stats/2025/passing.csv, pulled 2026-07-07).
• Backup: Drew Lock — tier B (veteran, QB2 on Ourlads depth chart, fetched 2026-07-07); QB3 Jalen Milroe (2025 R3) — tier C (raw, rushing-first).
• Contingency line: If Darnold misses time: Lock, tier B — expect a ~3–5 pt pass-rate cut on an already run-heavy offense, lower aDOT, more screens/checkdowns; JSN's perimeter volume compresses toward the slot/TE layer, Shaheed's deep work is hit hardest, Barner/Kupp hold best. If it falls to Milroe, treat as tier C: the offense becomes QB-run/positive-script rushing and every pass-catcher's floor drops a tier.

O-line

• Projected starters LT–RT (Ourlads, fetched 2026-07-07, matches 2025 lineup): Charles Cross (2026 5th-year option exercised, $17.56M — ESPN; missed 3 games in 2025) — Grey Zabel (2025 R1; led all NFL interior OL in RBWR at 83%, 1st — ESPN, 2026-01-06) — Jalen Sundell (listed starter; Olu Oluwatimi started 8 games when Sundell was out in 2025 — snap_counts.csv; mild camp battle) — Anthony Bradford (weakest link; Christian Haynes and R5 rookie Beau Stephens, No. 148, behind him — Ourlads/seahawks.com draft class) — Abraham Lucas (extended 3yr/$46M, $20M gtd, Sept 2025 — ESPN/Spotrac).
• Interior vs edge: bookends are set and paid (Cross/Lucas); the interior is very young but ascending — Zabel is already an elite run-blocker, and Sharp Football rates the unit top-10 after the biggest combined PBWR+RBWR jump in the league (3rd-youngest starting five). RG Bradford is the one interior pressure risk — interior pressure kills the deep game, so watch that spot in camp. Continuity (5/5) is a genuine green flag for both phases.

Scheme family

• Run scheme: wide/outside zone (Shanahan family) with heavy 21/22-personnel and gap/duo wrinkles — ~22% of snaps came with 2+ backs (21+22+31 pers., nflverse participation 2025) behind FB Robbie Ouzts. RB fits: one-cut/lateral-burst backs — R1 pick Jadarian Price's burst/receiving profile fits; power back Emanuel Wilson fits the duo/short-yardage packages.
• Pass-game family: Shanahan/McVay tree — wide zone married to play-action (25.3%), high motion (45.8%), condensed sets, YAC engine. Implications: mid aDOT, in-breakers and schemed YAC, a WR1 target share that can be enormous (JSN 35.8% in 2025), healthy TE routes from the 12-personnel diet, and a squeezed WR3 (11 personnel only ~42%).

Target/touch hierarchy & vacated math

Departed (name — 2025 targets / carries): RB Kenneth Walker III (36 / 221) — Super Bowl LX MVP, signed with KC 3yr/$43.05M (ESPN, March 2026, verified 2026-07-07). Fringe camp backs (Jacardia Wright, Velus Jones Jr., Myles Gaskin — 0 tgt / 12 carries combined, rushing.csv) not retained as locks. No pass-catcher of consequence departed — Shaheed re-signed 3yr/up to $51M (seahawks.com FA tracker, March 2026), Kupp on the roster at $13.5M for 2026 (fox13seattle.com/Heavy, March–June 2026; Ourlads SWR, fetched 2026-07-07). Vacated targets: ~36 · Vacated carries: ~221–233 (data/stats/2025/receiving.csv, rushing.csv, pulled 2026-07-07)

Arrivals (name — claim): RB Jadarian Price — R1, No. 32 overall (Notre Dame), signed (NFL.com draft coverage, April 2026; seahawks.com) — first-round capital is the presumptive claim on the vacated carries, though beat reporting frames him as Walker's *role* replacement, not an immediate bell-cow RB1 (ESPN "Why he's not immediately RB1," 2026; profootballrumors.com, May 2026). RB Emanuel Wilson — FA from GB, 1yr/up to $2.1M (ESPN, 2026-03-12) — power profile, depth claim only. WR Emmanuel Henderson Jr. — R6, No. 199 (Kansas). G Beau Stephens — R5, No. 148. TE Harrison Bryant — vet depth (RotoWire depth chart, 2026-07-07). No QB or veteran WR added.

Projected pecking order (state it even if contested — mark contested):

RB committee split (contested — Charbonnet's rehab controls it): Early downs: Jadarian Price (R1 capital; framed as Walker's-role successor and expected lead while Charbonnet rehabs — ESPN/profootballrumors, May–June 2026) with George Holani in the mix out of minicamp (SI/Yardbarker minicamp reports, June 2026); Zach Charbonnet reclaims lead/1A work when activated — tore ACL 2026-01-17 (divisional round), surgery 2026-02-20, 9–12 month timeline → expected to open camp on PUP and miss the season's start, mid-October return at the earliest (ESPN's Fowler via mynorthwest; Field Gulls; Heavy — June–July 2026; Ourlads still lists him RB1 by name value). Passing downs: Price/Holani early (Price the better receiving profile); Charbonnet takes passing-down work back when healthy. Goal line: Emanuel Wilson's power profile and Price early; Charbonnet (12 rush TD in 2025 — rushing.csv) resumes the goal-line role on return. Kenny McIntosh (July 2025 ACL) may also open on PUP (seahawks.com, June 2026).

Game environment

• Vegas win total: 10.5, DraftKings (Over −115 / Under +105 per CBS Sports betting guide, 2026-07-01; DK "10.5-win club" corroborated via covers.com/CBS, verified 2026-07-07; FanDuel 10+ wins −210) → script lean: positive (≥9.5 band).
• Projected plays/game: ~61 (2025 actual 61.3 — pbp_summary.csv; 30.4 sec/play, 24th — Sharp Football; neutral drive-gap pace 25th of 32 — computed 2026-07-07; Fleury's stated tempo emphasis offset by first-year install drag) · Projected pass rate: ~53% (2025 raw 52.9%, neutral 52.8%, PROE −6.8%; same-tree first-time caller inherits the lean; 10.5 win total sustains positive-script run volume).
• Projected pass attempts/game: ~29 · rush attempts/game: ~28.5 (inputs: 61 plays × ~53% pass = ~32.3 dropbacks − ~1.6 sacks/gm (27 sacks/17, passing.csv) − ~1.5 scrambles ≈ 29 attempts; 2025 actuals were 28.3 pass att/gm and 28.9 rush att/gm — passing.csv, pbp_summary.csv).

Defensive identity

Per methodology §8 — consumed by DST evals (dst.md §3) and /weekly-edge coverage-matchup reads (in-season.md §2).

• Runs the defense: Mike Macdonald, HC — confirmed for 2026. Macdonald has said he will be the defensive play-caller for the 2026 season; Aden Durde holds the DC title but does not call plays (mynorthwest "Why Seahawks chose a DC Macdonald has no history with"; Seattle Times via union-bulletin; verified 2026-07-07). Durde retained for 2026 after HC-interview interest (seahawks.com staff finalization, 2026-03-12; Sky Sports Durde interview, 2026).
• Tenure: Macdonald 3rd season calling this defense (2024–), Durde 3rd as DC · New DC: no (dc_new: false) — continuity green flag: same defensive play-caller ≥2 yrs; 2025 unit was No. 1 in defensive DVOA and allowed 17.18 PPG (Sky Sports; def_summary.csv).
• Front/scheme family: hybrid/odd-front multiple (Baltimore-style) — simulated pressures and disguise over raw blitz volume; pressure generated with 4–5 rushers.

Also: 27 takeaways, −0.111 EPA/play allowed — best in this data pull (def_summary.csv, 2025 reg. season).

• Key defensive arrivals/departures (edge and CB1 first): Edge — Boye Mafe departed to CIN, 3yr/$60M (Field Gulls, March 2026, verified 2026-07-07; 561 snaps in 2025, 19% pass-rush win rate, 8th among edges — ESPN win rates 2026-01-06); replaced by Dante Fowler Jr., 1yr/up to $5M, agreed 2026-05-05 (search-verified 2026-07-07; Durde connection from ATL/DAL) — a real but modest downgrade risk to the elite pressure rate (methodology: premium edge moves shift pressure 2–4 pts). Uchenna Nwosu retained (final year, 3yr/$45M — ProFootballRumors, April 2026); DeMarcus Lawrence and Derick Hall return. CB1 — Devon Witherspoon returns (2nd-team All-Pro 2025; moved from slot to boundary CB in 2025 — SI, verified 2026-07-07). CB2 Riq Woolen departed to PHI, 1yr/$15M (Heavy, March 2026, verified 2026-07-07; 817 snaps) — Josh Jobe steps in full-time with R3 CB Julian Neal (No. 99) behind (Sharp Football 2026 defense outlook; seahawks.com draft class). S Coby Bryant departed to CHI (977 snaps); R2 S Bud Clark (No. 64) drafted into that spot. Interior (Leonard Williams, Byron Murphy II, Jarran Reed) and LB core (Ernest Jones IV) return.
• Shadow-CB tendency: no established shadow — Witherspoon is alignment-versatile (two years primarily slot/nickel, boundary in 2025) and travels situationally rather than by rule (SI/seahawks.com role coverage, 2025–26). Treat weekly shadow calls as news.

Read: a zone-leaning (≈71%), Cover-2-heavy disguise defense that generates elite pressure (33.1%) on a low blitz rate — the profile that upgrades opposing option-route slots slightly but suffocates everything else; it was the No. 1 defense in the league in 2025 and returns its play-caller, CB1, and interior core. The Mafe→Fowler edge swap and the Woolen/Bryant secondary departures are the only leaks — CB2 (Jobe/rookie Neal) is the soft spot opposing offenses will hunt.

Stability & change log

• Stability: low — per methodology §10, a first-time play-caller (Fleury) rates low regardless of surrounding continuity. Heavy mitigation the rating can't fully capture: same HC, same QB1 (SB champion, no benching risk), 5/5 OL starters returning, same scheme tree explicitly retained (Fleury's stated goal is "to maintain" the offense — NFL.com; Darnold sees little "transition" — ESPN), defense fully intact at play-caller level (dc_new: false). If early camp/preseason reporting shows the offense operating as a Kubiak continuation, revisit toward medium.
• Watch items: (1) Charbonnet PUP/activation timeline — late-July checkup; his return date reshapes the whole committee; (2) Price's workload as a rookie lead back weeks 1–6 (beat reporting explicitly resists the "immediate RB1" frame); (3) Kupp's age-33 form / any roster or role change — his slot job is the pecking-order No. 2; (4) Barner's post-surgery camp readiness; (5) Horton's shin recovery (could push past Kupp by midseason); (6) center reps Sundell vs. Oluwatimi; (7) RG Bradford vs. Haynes/Stephens; (8) Fleury's actual tempo/pass-rate drift vs. the Kubiak prior; (9) CB2 Jobe vs. Neal (defensive identity only).