Don't Look at My Team

Jerry Jeudy — WR, CLE (2026)

Verdict

HOLD (low confidence) at ADP 143.9 (FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07 — WR69, round 12 of a 12-team draft). Jeudy is a 27-year-old, year-7 incumbent coming off a 106-target, 35.9%-air-yards-share season whose points collapsed (7.1 PPG) under the league's worst QB room — and the market has responded by pricing both rookie teammates (Concepcion 119.8, Boston 135.6) ahead of him. The usage record and the GM's post-draft "he's our bell cow" line say the market is somewhat too dark; the earning-rate profile (TPRR ≤0.19 both CLE years), 6–9 drops, two rounds-1–2 WRs added at his alignments, a live trade market, and a minicamp hamstring say the risk is real. Profile and price roughly agree: a cheap usage floor with a contested role. No "market is wrong" thesis clears the bar in either direction, so this is a HOLD — but a fragile one; the tripwires below flip it fast.

Bull case

The market prices 7.1 PPG; the usage said ~10+. 106 targets, 35.9% AYS, 91.6% RP, derived xFP ~170–185 vs 120.7 actual — and the GM publicly reaffirmed him as the No. 1 after drafting the rookies. At WR69/pick 144, one more 90-target season pays the pick by itself.
2025 efficiency was demonstrably QB-driven and 2024 is recent proof of life: only 58% of his targets were charted catchable (FTN join; 70% in 2024), yet he caught 82% of the catchable ones. 90-1229-4 (14.2 PPG) at age 25 with functional QB play is two years old, not five. Any competent QB stability regresses his catch rate up from 47.2% toward his 62.1% 2024 mark.
Monken's pass-first roots favor WR scoring (TB offenses ranked 1st/5th/10th in WR PPR points 2016–18), and a 6.5-win team throws late in games — team pass volume (~530 targets) holds even if his share slips.

Bear case

Three first-read claims were added or ascended around him in 12 months (Fannin hub, R1 Concepcion at his Z/slot, R2 Boston at the X), against only ~80 vacated targets — and his own TPRR (0.17–0.19 both CLE years) says he has never out-earned contested volume. High RP + low TPRR is the classic capped-role sell signal.
Not all of 2025 was the QBs: drop rate on *catchable* balls rose 7.8% → 11.5% (FTN join), NGS separation fell 2.77 → 2.47, RZ target share fell 25.0% → 15.8% (inside-10: 8 → 3) with the same 106-target volume, and his field-zone profile is boundary-only (17.9% MOF) — the floor-fragile shape. Age-27 year-7 receivers don't usually rediscover separation in a new scheme.
Trade limbo + soft-tissue flag: skipped voluntaries, hamstring at minicamp, an org that saves cap by dealing him post-June-1, and a market (LV/NYG/WAS/ATL floated) that could land him in an equal-or-worse role — while every camp rep he misses goes to rookies the front office drafted to replace him.

Projection & comps

Bottom-up (CLE team inputs from data/team-profiles/CLE.md, 2026-07-07: ~62 plays/gm, ~58% pass, ~33 att/gm → ~560 att / ~530 targets on the season):

Scenario	Games	Routes	TPRR	Targets	Rec (catch%)	Yards	TD	PPR
Floor (p20)	13–14	~350	0.16	~56	30 (54%)	~390	2	~80
Median (p50)	16	~490	0.185	~90	50 (56%)	~660	3.5	~135
Ceiling (p80)	17	~550	0.20	~110	68 (62%)	~880	5	~185

Floor = role erosion (Boston takes the X, Concepcion the slot/Z, Jeudy squeezed to clear #3) and/or a trade into a committee, plus the soft-tissue flag.
Median = keeps a starting outside job at a ~17% TS behind hub Fannin, modest efficiency rebound with a more stable QB (Watson or year-2 Sanders) and Monken spacing.
Ceiling = the "bell cow" claim holds at ~20% TS with a real catch-rate rebound; his 2024 (240.9 PPR) is the p95 tail, not the p80, given the new capital around him.
TDs anchored to usage-based expectation (~3–4 xTD on 90ish mid-aDOT targets for a low-win offense), not 2025's 2 or 2024's 4.
Games-played risk: medium — 17/17 games in both 2024 and 2025 (data/stats), but an active hamstring flag (June 2026) on a separation-dependent profile.

Comp seasons (similar role: veteran boundary WR on a bad-QB / contested-target offense — approximate, from historical record, UNVERIFIED against cache):

Jerry Jeudy 2023 DEN: 54-758-2 on 87 targets ≈ 142 PPR
Marquise Brown 2023 ARI: 51-574-4 on 101 targets ≈ 132 PPR
Tyler Lockett 2024 SEA: 49-600-2 on 74 targets ≈ 121 PPR (aging vet passed by ascending teammates)
Brandin Cooks 2023 DAL: 54-657-8 ≈ 156 PPR (vet in reduced role, TD-driven ceiling)

External projections: none in data/projections/ (directory absent, checked 2026-07-07).

Usage profile (wr.md §2 table)

All cache numbers from data/stats/2025 & 2024 (nflverse, pulled 2026-07-07). RP derived from participation.csv (Jeudy on-field for 544/595 charted CLE pass plays 2025; 655/701 in 2024); routes = RP × team pass plays from pbp_summary (681 / 813) → TPRR. RZ/EZ/depth/location computed from full pbp (loaded 2026-07-07).

Metric	2024	2025	Band / read
Target share	22.9% (145 tgt)	20.3% (106 tgt)	Good→low-good; still team WR1 by volume in 2025
TPRR (derived)	0.192 (145/755)	0.170 (106/624)	Concern — never out-earned volume; 2025 sits at the <0.18 line even with the QB excuse
Route participation (derived)	93.4%	91.6%	Elite — the gate is open; he was never rotated off the field
Air-yards share	32.2%	35.9%	Elite band — held the downfield claim all year (NGS intended-AY share 36.5%)
WOPR	0.57	0.56	Good band both years
RZ target share	25.0% (17/68)	15.8% (9/57)	Good→Concern — the TD role was already migrating (Fannin/others) before the rookies arrived; inside-10: 8/34 → 3/21 (computed from nflverse pbp, loaded 2026-07-07)
End-zone targets	10 (26% of team 39)	6 (24% of team 25)	Held share of a shrunken pie; ~WR40s absolute volume — thin TD access either way (computed from pbp)
xFP	—	UNVERIFIED (provider); derived estimate ~170–185 PPR expected on 106 tgts at 12.2 aDOT vs 120.7 actual	Big usage-over-results gap — the market prices the 7.1 PPG, not the 106 targets

2×2 read (wr.md §2): high RP + low TPRR = capped earner — the sell-side quadrant. His floor comes from being on the field, not from winning targets at an above-slot rate.

Late-season split: with Sanders (wks 11–18) Jeudy managed 40 tgts / 22-267-1 in 8 games (5.0 tgt/gm) as rookie TE Fannin became the hub; TS spiked to 29–30% only in weeks 17–18 (weekly.csv). No persisting-role signal worth overriding the season line.

Target quality, alignment, coverage

aDOT 11.9–12.3 (NGS 2025 intended air yards 11.9; PFF-sourced reporting 12.3) — the intermediate sweet spot by depth, but with a 47.2% catch rate the value never converted.
Depth mix 2025 (computed from pbp): behind-LOS 2 / short 0–9: 41 / intermediate 10–19: 45 / deep 20+: 18 — earns at 3 of 4 depths, intermediate-heavy. A genuinely healthy tree by depth; the profile problem is location, not depth.
Field zones: boundary-only. MOF target share just 17.9% (19/106 charted "middle"; 55 left / 32 right) in 2025 and 18.6% in 2024 (computed from pbp) — under the ≥45% MOF-earner bar and past the ≥75% boundary-only line (wr.md §3) both years → structural floor discount; boundary catch rates travel worse through bad QB play, which 2025 demonstrated.
Slot/wide split, man/zone splits: UNVERIFIED — not in cache, provider pages not exposing 2025 alignment data (PlayerProfiler checked 2026-07-07). Team profile lists him "outside (Z/X), some slot."
NGS separation fell 2.77 (2024) → 2.47 (2025); cushion 5.63; YAC over expected ≈ 0.0 both years (ngs_receiving.csv). Some genuine decline signal mixed into the QB excuse.
Drops: 7 drops on 61 catchable targets = 11.5% of catchable balls in 2025, up from 8/103 = 7.8% in 2024 (FTN charting × pbp join, computed 2026-07-07); ESPN counted 6 (tied 6th-most, May 2026), PFF-sourced reporting 9. Above the concern band however counted. Jeudy publicly worked ball-drills on it this offseason (ESPN, 2026-05-31).
First downs per route run: 0.075 (2024) → 0.050 (2025) — concern band.
YPRR: 1.63 (2024) → 0.96 (2025) — concern band, worst of his career.

QB-driven vs WR-driven: mostly QB-driven, now quantified. Joining FTN charting to Jeudy's pbp targets (computed 2026-07-07): only 58% of his 2025 targets were charted catchable (61/106) vs 70% in 2024 (103/148) — 45 uncatchable balls, ~42% of his volume thrown away by the QB room. On catchable balls he still caught 82% (50/61) vs 87% in 2024 — a real but much smaller skill decline than the raw 47.2% catch rate implies. CLE cycled Flacco (wks 1–4: 30 tgt/13-182-0 to Jeudy), Gabriel (wks 5–10: 36/15-153-1), Sanders (wks 11–18: 40/22-267-1) (weekly.csv); Sanders finished 42nd of 42 in comp rate and 38th in CPOE (DraftSharks via team profile, Jul 2026). But the drop rate on catchable balls rising to 11.5%, the separation decline, the RZ-share fall, and a TPRR that was mediocre even in the good 2024 season mean a nontrivial WR-driven share. Call it 70/30 QB/WR.

Context (data/team-profiles/CLE.md, 2026-07-07)

New everything, stability: low. Monken (HC, calls plays, year 1) replaces the Stefanski/Rees lineage; air-raid-rooted pro spread, ~58% projected pass rate on ~62 plays/gm; win total 6.5 → negative script (more dropbacks, worse efficiency).
The funnel tilts away from Jeudy. Monken's stickiest tendency is TE target share (20%+ in 5 of 7 offenses; Bowers comp hung on Fannin, who had 107 targets and led all TEs in TPRR as a rookie). CLE then spent picks 24 (KC Concepcion, slot/flanker) and 39 (Denzel Boston, 6'4" boundary X) on WRs. Vacated targets are only ~80 (Njoku 48, Ford 32) — this is a capital-over-incumbents reshuffle, not an open buffet.
QB: open Watson-vs-Sanders competition, unresolved after June minicamp (ESPN/Fowler, Jun 2026). Either outcome is a below-average passer; the backup scenario is C-tier. Widen all CLE pass-catcher ranges downward.
O-line: 4/5 starters new; rookie LT; interior upgraded. Expected early edge pressure → quick game → funnels to Fannin/slot/RB, away from Jeudy's intermediate/boundary tree.
Jeudy-specific: GM Berry after day 2 of the draft: "Zero impact on Jerry. He's our bell cow" (NBC Sports/ESPN, Apr–May 2026). But he skipped April voluntaries amid live trade rumors (Dawg Pound Daily/Last Word, Mar–Jun 2026; LV/NYG/WAS/ATL floated; ~R3 pick in one SI mock, Apr 2026), tweaked a hamstring at June minicamp (Monken: "his hamstring grabbed him a little bit… not want him to go into the offseason with a hamstring problem" — Heavy, 2026-06-11; Sleeper lists him Questionable as of 2026-07-07), and his contract (3yr/$52.5M ext, ~$10.3M 2026 cap hit, cheap post-June-1 trade) makes him the roster's most movable veteran.
Pedigree screen (deep-pool): R1 P15 (2020), breakout age 19.4 (81st %ile), college dominator 25.1%, 4.45 forty (PlayerProfiler, fetched 2026-07-07) — a real pedigree, but capital's predictive power decays by year 3 (prospect-pedigree.md §1). At year 7 he's priced on his NFL usage record, and none of the year-2/3 or post-hype breakout screens fire. His deep-pool case is pure incumbency + price.

Tripwires (void this eval and re-run)

Jeudy is traded (any team, any time) — full re-projection in the new context; also upgrades Concepcion/Boston/Tillman evals.
Camp/preseason reports Boston or Concepcion running with the 1s over Jeudy (or Jeudy's first-team outside snaps visibly shrinking) → shade toward FADE/AVOID.
Hamstring lingers into training camp (missed practices in late July/August) → downgrade floor, games_risk to high.
QB battle resolves — either way: Watson named starter (modest catchable-rate upside) or Sanders (Fannin-funnel risk) → re-check median.
ADP moves: drifts past ~160 → flips to TARGET (free usage floor); rises inside ~110 → FADE (paying for a contested role).

Sources

data/stats/2025/{receiving,weekly,ngs_receiving,snap_counts,participation,ftn_charting,passing,pbp_summary}.csv; data/stats/2024/{receiving,weekly,ngs_receiving,participation,ftn_charting,pbp_summary}.csv — nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07 (REG only). RP derived from participation.csv on-field share of charted CLE pass plays (91.4–91.6% 2025, 93.4% 2024); routes = RP × team pass plays (pbp_summary: 681 in 2025, 813 in 2024) → TPRR 0.170/0.191.
nflverse pbp (REG), loaded fresh via nflreadpy 2026-07-07: Jeudy RZ targets (17/68 team 2024 → 9/57 2025), inside-10 (8/34 → 3/21), end-zone targets (10 of team 39 → 6 of team 25), depth mix, pass-location MOF/boundary split (19 middle / 87 boundary, 2025).
FTN charting × pbp target join (computed 2026-07-07): 2025 — 61/106 catchable (58%), 7 drops (11.5% of catchable), 19 contested; 2024 — 103/148 catchable (70%), 8 drops (7.8%), 22 contested.
data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv — FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07 (Jeudy 143.9 = WR69; Concepcion 119.8; Boston 135.6).
data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json — age 27, years_exp 6, status Active, injury_status Questionable, depth RWR-3.
data/team-profiles/CLE.md — built 2026-07-07 (Monken/Switzer regime, QB battle, OL overhaul, hierarchy, 62 plays / 58% pass / 33 att projections, vacated-target math).
ESPN, "Jeudy aims to return to Pro Bowl form in 2026" (2026-05-31): Berry "bell cow" quote, 6 drops (tied 6th), 35.4 ypg/12.0 ypc career lows, offseason ball-drill work — fetched 2026-07-07.
Heavy.com (2026-06-11): Monken on minicamp hamstring ("grabbed him a little bit"), WR coach Christian Jones on Jeudy's mentoring; potential 2027 out — fetched 2026-07-07.
NBC Sports PFT (Apr 2026): Berry "Zero impact on Jerry. He's our bell cow" after day 2 — via search 2026-07-07.
NFLWag Jeudy trade explainer (2026-04-04): contract (3yr/$52.5M, ~$10.3M 2026 cap hit, post-June-1 trade math), LV/NYG speculation, SI mock ~R3 comp — fetched 2026-07-07.
Dawg Pound Daily / Last Word on Sports / Heavy (Mar–Jun 2026): live trade-rumor thread, skipped April voluntaries — via search 2026-07-07 (Last Word article 403'd; characterization from search results + team profile).
PlayerProfiler Jeudy page (fetched 2026-07-07): draft 1.15 (2020), breakout age 19.4 (81st %ile), dominator 25.1%, 4.45 forty; 2025 advanced alignment metrics not populated → slot rate, RZ/EZ targets, coverage splits marked UNVERIFIED.
PFF via search snippets (2026-07-07): 58.5 overall grade (72nd/81 WRs), 9 drops charged, 12.3 aDOT — secondary source.
DraftSharks CLE preview (Jul 2026, via team profile): Sanders 42/42 comp rate, 38th CPOE; Monken TE-share history; 58.0% pass-rate projection.
Comp-season stat lines in §2: historical record, UNVERIFIED against cache (pre-2026 seasons outside cached years).