Cleveland Browns

CLE — team profile

Built per methodology/team-context.md. Every number needs a source + as-of date or the UNVERIFIED mark. Position evals cite this file; they do not re-research it.

Play-caller

• Calls plays: Todd Monken (HC) — confirmed. Monken stated he will call plays himself while HC, with first-time OC Travis Switzer (ex-BAL run game coordinator 2024–25) not calling (SI/Browns Nation/Yahoo, Feb 2026; verified 2026-07-07). Kevin Stefanski was fired 2026-01-05 after 5-12 and is now ATL's HC with Tommy Rees calling plays there (ESPN, Jan 2026) — the entire 2025 CLE play-calling lineage (Stefanski wks 1–9, Rees wks 10–18) is gone.
• Tenure with team: year 1 (hired on a 5-year deal, Jan 2026 — ESPN) · Prior relationship with QB1: none with Watson or Sanders; called plays for Lamar Jackson (BAL 2023–25) and coached Joe Flacco in CLE 2019 as OC (didn't call plays there — Kitchens did).

Last 3 play-calling stops (skip non-calling years; Georgia 2020–22 was college — noted below, not tabled):

Context on the table: BAL raw pass rate 53.6%, 58.5 plays/gm in 2025 (data/stats/2025/pbp_summary.csv, pulled 2026-07-07); BAL raw pass rate fell 49.7% (2023) → 47.5% (2024) after the Derrick Henry signing (DraftSharks, Jul 2026). TB 2018 led all teams in WR PPR points; his offenses ranked 1st/5th/10th in WR PPR points in TB 2016–18 (DraftSharks). Georgia 2020–22 (two national titles) featured Brock Bowers as the target hub.

Read: Monken's BAL tendencies (deeply negative PROE, slow pace, 30% 12 personnel) were Lamar/Henry roster-shaped — separate the caller from the roster. His TB/air-raid roots and pre-BAL history (3 of his first 4 offenses ranked higher in pass than rush attempts — DraftSharks) plus a 6.5-win roster point to a much more neutral-to-pass profile in CLE, filtered through a year-1 install drag. The stickiest caller-shaped signal is TE usage: 20%+ TE target share in 5 of his 7 offenses, 22%+ in each of the last three BAL years (DraftSharks, Jul 2026) — he has already publicly comped Harold Fannin Jr. to Brock Bowers. Expect heavy 12/big-slot TE usage, a spread-spacing dropback game, and less outside-zone/PA than the departed Stefanski scheme.

QB situation

• QB1: contested — open competition, unresolved after June minicamp. Deshaun Watson (final year of contract, $46M fully guaranteed 2026 salary — CBS Sports/ESPN, Mar 2026; healthy after missing all of 2025 with a twice-ruptured Achilles) vs Shedeur Sanders (2025 R5 pick; 8 games/7 starts in 2025: 120/212, 1,400 yds, 7 TD, 10 INT, 23 sacks — data/stats/2025/passing.csv). ESPN's Jeremy Fowler (Jun 2026): most around the league expect Watson, the veteran, to win it, but Sanders "closed ground" in OTAs/minicamp and GM Andrew Berry praised his spring. Benching risk for whoever starts: live in both directions.
• Backup: the competition loser. If Watson starts → backup Sanders, tier C on 2025 evidence (42nd of 42 in completion rate, 38th in CPOE, 21 sacks in 7 starts — DraftSharks, Jul 2026). If Sanders starts → backup Watson, tier B (functional veteran floor, but 61.2% comp / 6.0 YPA across his CLE tenure and two Achilles ruptures — DraftSharks). Dillon Gabriel is an active trade candidate (Browns Nation, Jun 2026); QB4 Taylen Green (2026 R6 P182) is developmental.
• Contingency line: If the week-1 starter misses time, the swap is Watson↔Sanders — expect a compressed offense either way: pass rate −2–4%, aDOT down, screens/checkdowns up. Fannin (option-route slot/TE profile) and Sampson hold value; boundary/deep targets (Boston, Bond) lose the most. With a C-tier backup scenario live, widen every CLE pass-catcher's range downward.

O-line

• Projected starters LT–RT: LT Spencer Fano (R1 P9 rookie — did not play LT his last two college years), LG Zion Johnson (FA, 3yr/$49.5M, $32.4M gtd), C Elgton Jenkins (FA, 2yr/$24M), RG Teven Jenkins (re-signed), RT Tytus Howard (trade from HOU + 3-yr extension) (SI Browns OL projection, Jun 2026). Depth/battles: R5 C Parker Brailsford could push at center; Dawand Jones trying guard; R3 OT Austin Barber is the swing tackle. 2025 mainstays Joel Bitonio (retired after 12 seasons — clevelandbrowns.com, early 2026) and Wyatt Teller (post–June-1 release → HOU) are gone.
• Interior vs edge: interior is the strength — three paid veterans (Johnson's run-block win rate jumped in 2025; Elgton Jenkins ranked 5th in pass-blocking at his spot; Howard 14th — DraftSharks, Jul 2026). Edge is the risk: a rookie LT learning a new side protecting a QB coming off two Achilles ruptures (or a rookie-contract QB who took sacks at a high rate). Expect early-season edge pressure → compressed aDOT, chips/extra protectors, quick game — which further funnels targets to Fannin/slot/RB and away from deep boundary shots.

Scheme family

• Run scheme: gap/duo-leaning with inside zone mix — OC Travis Switzer was BAL's run game coordinator for Derrick Henry's downhill gap/duo attack (clevelandbrowns.com, Feb 2026). Fits: Quinshon Judkins (downhill, contact balance, goal-line mass) is a clean scheme fit; Dylan Sampson fits the space/satellite role, not the between-tackles work.
• Pass-game family: air raid–rooted pro spread (Monken: Leach tree via Okla. St., modernized at TB/UGA/BAL) — spacing and dropback volume over the Stefanski wide-zone/PA marriage, with heavy 12-personnel and TE-as-primary tendencies from the BAL years. Implications: big-slot/TE target funnel (Fannin), healthy slot volume (Concepcion), mid aDOT, less schemed condensed-set YAC than the previous regime — Stefanski/Rees-era designed-touch roles are void until re-established.

Target/touch hierarchy & vacated math

Departed (2025 targets / carries, data/stats/2025/receiving.csv + rushing.csv, pulled 2026-07-07):

• David Njoku, TE — 48 targets / 0 carries (not re-signed; replaced by blocking TE Jack Stoll — ESPN FA tracker, Mar 2026)
• Jerome Ford, RB — 32 targets / 24 carries (1-yr deal, WAS — ESPN FA tracker, Mar 2026)
• Joe Flacco QB (traded to CIN in-season 2025) and Kenny Pickett already off roster; Trayveon Williams (8 tgt/7 car) unsigned, status UNVERIFIED

Vacated targets: 80 (Njoku 48 + Ford 32) of 522 team targets ≈ 15% · Vacated carries: 24 (Ford) — modest vacancy, but the Browns added ~2 rounds-1–2 receiving claims on top of it, so this is a capital-over-incumbents reshuffle, not a feeding opportunity.

Arrivals (claim):

• KC Concepcion, WR — R1 P24 (2026); Texas A&M: 61-919-9 in 2025; "Zay Flowers-esque flanker," snaps all over the formation (clevelandbrowns.com position preview, Jun 2026)
• Denzel Boston, WR — R2 P39 (2026); 6'4"/212 boundary X, 20 TD over final two college seasons (DraftSharks)
• Jack Stoll, TE — 1-yr FA; blocking TE2, minimal target claim
• Tylan Wallace, WR — FA depth/ST (ESPN FA tracker)
• Joe Royer (R5 P170) / Carsen Ryan (R7 P248), TE — depth behind Fannin (NFL.com draft tracker)

Projected pecking order (contested slots marked):

Isaiah Bond (44 tgts, 2025) and Cedric Tillman (39 tgts) are WR4/5 — both squeezed by the rookie capital.

RB committee split: early-down: Judkins (230 carries in 14 games, 54.6% team carry share, 71.9% RB rush share — cache + DraftSharks) · passing-down: Sampson · goal-line: Judkins (7 rush TD in 2025). Raheim Sanders is the depth back. Clearest role split on the roster — Judkins is the workhorse, Sampson the satellite; neither slot contested.

Game environment

• Vegas win total: 6.5 (BetMGM: Over +155 / Under −190, as-of 2026-07-07; CBS Sports notes market expects the under) → script lean: negative
• Projected plays/game: ~62 (2025 CLE base 63.4 — cache; new-staff install drag and Monken's recent slow-pace stops minus a few, negative script hurry-up adds some back) · Projected pass rate: ~58% (Monken's BAL PROE −8.8% was Lamar-shaped; his neutral pass ~53% there vs pass-leaning pre-BAL history; 6.5-win negative script pushes up; DraftSharks independently projects 58.0%)
• Projected pass attempts/game: ~33 · rush attempts/game: ~26 (inputs: 62 plays × 58% = ~36 dropbacks − ~2.5–3 sacks/gm behind a rebuilt line ≈ 33 att; 62 × 42% ≈ 26 rushes incl. scrambles)

Defensive identity

Per methodology §8 — consumed by DST evals (dst.md §3) and /weekly-edge coverage-matchup reads (in-season.md §2).

• Runs the defense: Mike Rutenberg (DC) — presumed play-caller (first-time DC; HC Monken is offense-side and calls the offense; clevelandbrowns.com coordinator announcement + NFL.com hire report, Feb 2026; verified 2026-07-07). Jim Schwartz departed after three seasons.
• Tenure with team: year 1 · New DC: yes → new-DC protocol; all 2025 CLE scheme stats below are VOID as forward signal. Age 44, first coordinator job. Tree: Saleh/Ulbrich — Jaguars DB/LB assistant 2013–19, 49ers pass-game specialist 2020, Jets LB coach 2021–24 (top-5 total defense 2022–24), Falcons defensive pass game coordinator 2025 under Jeff Ulbrich (#1 total defense/DVOA) (NFL.com/SI, Feb 2026).
• Front/scheme family: 4-down, wide-9 principles — reporting notes his familiarity with CLE's existing wide-9 front from the Saleh tree (NFL.com, Feb 2026); most recent stop (ATL 2025) layered the league's heaviest blitz/pressure-disguise package on top of it.

• Key defensive arrivals/departures (edge/CB1 first):
• OUT: Myles Garrett (edge, traded to LAR for Jared Verse + 2027 R1 + 2028 R2 + 2029 R3 — ESPN/NFL.com, 2026 offseason). He personally drove the 2nd-ranked team PRWR (21% individual PRWR — ESPN). Expect a multi-point pressure-rate drop even with the return.
• IN: Jared Verse (edge, via the Garrett trade) — 2024 DROY, two-time Pro Bowler, 7.5 sacks and top-15 pressure rate in 2025 (ESPN). Premium arrival, but a net downgrade from Garrett.
• OUT: Greg Newsome II (CB, traded to JAX) / IN: Tyson Campbell (CB) in the same swap (Sharp Football, Jun 2026). Denzel Ward remains CB1 after a bounce-back 2025.
• OUT: LB Devin Bush (CHI) / IN: LB Quincy Williams (2 yr) — Rutenberg's Jets pupil; pairs with 2025 DROY LB Carson Schwesinger (ESPN FA tracker / Sharp, Mar–Jun 2026).
• Shadow-CB tendency: unknown — Ward was not a consistent shadow under Schwartz's sides-heavy wide-9, and the new staff's usage is unreported as of 2026-07-07. UNVERIFIED.

Read: expect a shift from Schwartz's rush-4/wide-9 toward the ATL 2025 model — heavier blitz and pressure disguise with more single-high man mixed in — which fits a post-Garrett roster that can no longer win with four. Personnel fit is decent (Verse, Ward/Campbell, Schwesinger/Williams speed at LB), but a first-time DC, a traded superstar edge, and a year-1 install cap DST confidence; the 2025 elite sack numbers do not carry forward.

Stability & change log

• Stability: low — per methodology §10: new HC/play-caller (year 1) + open QB1 competition + 4/5 new OL starters = two-plus major changes. (Defensive trust is separately capped by dc_new: true.)
• Watch items: (1) QB battle resolution in camp/preseason — most-likely-to-fire trigger, flips the qb1 field and every pass-catcher read; (2) Jerry Jeudy trade rumors (MIN speculation, day-3 pick price) — would vacate ~106 targets and de-contest the WR order; (3) Dillon Gabriel trade; (4) rookie LT Fano's camp — a move of Fano to RT/Howard flip or a Brailsford-at-C win changes the OL section; (5) win-total movement off 6.5; (6) Fannin camp usage confirming the Bowers-comp role.