Dylan Sampson

Dylan Sampson — RB, CLE — 2026 evaluation

Verdict

TARGET (medium confidence) at a free price. Sampson is a 21-year-old year-2 satellite back with the best target-earning rates in the position group (TPRR ~0.27–0.28, #1 among qualifying RBs; 1.86 YPRR, 2nd — FantasyPros expert note 2026-06/07; DraftSharks Jul 2026) whose only backfield target competition (Jerome Ford, 32 targets, backfield-leading routes) left in free agency with zero capital added behind him — and whose workhorse teammate (Quinshon Judkins) is coming off a Week 16 dislocated ankle + fractured fibula. Why the market is wrong: an undrafted/RB53 price is paying for Sampson's 87.6-point rookie box score, not the 2026 role — vacated RB routes on a 6.5-win (negative-script, target-friendly) team plus live contingency behind a rehabbing starter is exactly the asymmetry the deep pool exists to buy. He is not a lead-back bet — day-3 capital, 2.69 rookie YPC, no goal-line role — so this is a TARGET on role + price, not talent-tier, and it costs a last-round pick or a waiver claim.

Projection & comps

Bottom-up (team volume from data/team-profiles/CLE.md, 2026-07-07: ~62 plays/g, ~58% pass → ~33 pass att/g, ~26 rushes/g; team targets ≈ 540; RB target pool ≈ 100–110 [2025 actual: 120 of 522 = 23%, projected down slightly on the Fannin funnel]):

• Floor = healthy Judkins keeps his own 36-target claim, Fannin swallows the underneath, Sampson repeats rookie usage minus a game or two.
• Median = Ford's routes transfer, ~55% of the RB target pool, modest year-2 carry bump (15.4% → ~18% carry share).
• Ceiling = Judkins misses meaningful time (dislocated-ankle recovery) or a genuine 1B split emerges; Sampson keeps passing downs and splits early downs with Sanders.
• TDs anchored to xTD: goal-line role is Judkins' (7 rush TD 2025; Sampson 0 rush TD, ~0 inside-5 share) — TD projection is receiving-led and low. Never projecting a TD spike.
• Games risk: medium — missed weeks 15–16 as rookie (calf + hand — acute, not soft-tissue-chronic; full practice by week 18: data/stats/2025/injuries.csv). Career odometer ~560 total touches (462 college + 98 NFL) — exceptionally low mileage, age 21 (turns 22 on 2026-09-14: rosters.csv).
• Comps (approximate historical PPR, sanity check): Kenneth Gainwell 2021 PHI (~124) and Antonio Gibson 2023 WAS (~121) bracket the median; Jaylen Warren 2022 PIT (~91) is the floor shape; Chase Edmonds 2020 ARI (~172) / Nyheim Hines 2020 IND (~195) are the ceiling shape. (Approx values, memory-derived priors — role-shape comps, not point estimates.)
• No file in data/projections/ to cross-check (dir contains no external projection set for him) — noted as a gap.

Usage profile (2025 rookie season, REG, 15 games)

Source: data/stats/2025/ (nflverse, pulled 2026-07-07) unless noted.

2×2 read (rb.md §2): low snap share + elite earning-per-route — the inverse of the "trust established" quadrant. The routes, not the talent-per-route, are the bottleneck; Ford's departure is the direct routes catalyst.

Receiving detail: 40 targets, 33 rec (82.5%), 271 yds (6.8 Y/T), 2 TD, −62 air yards, 318 YAC — classic designed/underneath satellite usage (participation.csv routes charted: swings, screens, quick outs). Week 1 with no Judkins and Flacco at QB: 8/8/64 on 12 carries (17.3 PPR) — the ceiling-scenario proof of concept.

Rushing efficiency (bear): 2.69 YPC on 65 carries; NGS RYOE/att in his 3 qualifying weeks: −1.03, −1.14, +0.22 (ngs_rushing.csv) — behind the NFL's 24th-ranked run-blocking line (team profile), but nothing here argues for lead-back carries. MTF/touch and YAC/att for 2025 NFL: UNVERIFIED — PFF shows "Not Enough Snaps" for his 2025 grades (pff.com, fetched 2026-07-07). Pass-block grade: UNVERIFIED (same threshold issue) — a real open question since pass-pro gates the passing downs (rb.md §9).

Pedigree (weighted up — thin NFL sample, per prospect-pedigree.md): 2025 R4 P126 (day 3 — "one bad week from committee," requires usage proof; he has partial proof via the 40 targets). Tennessee: 422-2,492-35 (5.9 YPC) + exactly 40 career receptions (342 yds) — hits the ≥40-reception three-down predictor at the line (NFL.com/draft profiles, fetched 2026-07-07). Age-20 breakout season: 1,491 yds/22 TD, SEC OPOY, 2nd-team All-American (2024). PFF college: 21 forced missed tackles on his 40 catches; 929 yds after contact in 2024, 5th in the draft class. Testing: no combine 40 (hamstring); pro-day 4.42 at ~200 lbs (247Sports, Mar 2025); RAS UNVERIFIED (incomplete testing). Year-2 leap screen (§11): fails the formal trigger (day-3 capital, late-2025 snaps 35–50% not ≥60%) — this is a role-path sleeper, not a screen-qualified breakout.

Context (team profile, 2026-07-07)

• Regime reset: Monken (HC, calls plays) + Switzer (OC, ex-BAL run-game coordinator). Gap/duo-leaning run game fits Judkins; Sampson explicitly tagged the space/satellite fit in the profile. Stefanski-era designed-touch roles are void — but Sampson's role survived the transition in spring reporting.
• Backfield: Judkins (2025 R2, 230-827-7, 54.6% team carry share, goal line) is the workhorse — rehabbing a Week 16 dislocated ankle + fractured fibula; progressed to full OTA/minicamp participation, Monken: "his confidence back, his explosion" (clevelandbrowns.com position preview, Jun 2026). Sampson ran as lead back at the start of the offseason program (FantasyPros news, ~Apr 2026) and is the undisputed RB2 (Sleeper depth_chart_order 2, 2026-07-07). Sanders (2025 UDFA-class depth) split post-Judkins work in wks 16–18. No 2026 draft pick or veteran RB added — Booth/Harden are UDFAs, Marshall a practice-squadder, Burton a fullback (clevelandbrowns.com, Jun 2026).
• Vacated: Ford's 32 targets + backfield-leading routes (data/stats/2025/receiving.csv; DraftSharks Jul 2026) → the direct route inheritance.
• Game script: win total 6.5, under-juiced (BetMGM 2026-07-07) → negative scripts dominate. Sampson is the CLE back whose usage *rises* trailing (snap-by-score-state UNVERIFIED in cache, but role and profile both point that way; the team profile's contingency line explicitly names Sampson a compressed-offense value-holder). Judkins the grinder is the one the 6.5 win total caps.
• Target competition for the checkdown zone: Harold Fannin Jr. (107 targets, Monken's Bowers comp, 22%+ TE target share every Monken BAL year) is the funnel's first read underneath — the biggest structural cap on the RB target pool. QB is a Watson/Sanders open competition; either outcome compresses aDOT and feeds screens/checkdowns (profile contingency line), which helps Sampson's floor.
• OL: rebuilt (4/5 new starters), interior upgraded — helps whoever carries; edge risk raises pressure → more hot-route/outlet throws.

Tripwires (re-run on any)

• CLE adds a veteran RB on a real contract or trades for a back — capital added voids the no-competition thesis.
• Judkins camp/preseason reports confirm full health AND two-minute/passing-down reps — kills the receiving exclusivity → downgrade toward low-confidence HOLD.
• Judkins setback / PUP-list news — upgrade trigger; re-run immediately (verdict likely strengthens, projection shifts toward ceiling).
• Camp reports Sanders (or a UDFA) taking RB2/two-minute work from Sampson — the day-3 committee risk realized → FADE.
• ADP climbs inside ~pick 120 / RB40 — the free-price asymmetry is the edge; at a real price this profile is a HOLD at best until usage confirms.