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@SFJalen Hurts — QB, PHI — 2026
Verdict
TARGET at ADP 93.1 (QB11, FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07), high confidence. Hurts just lived his own bear case — career-low rushing yardage (27.3/g kneel-adjusted), designed runs nearly halved (6.1→3.4/g), EPA/dropback sag, the A.J. Brown soap opera — and *still* finished QB7 in PPG (18.8) and QB8 in total points (nflverse cache, 2025). The FFC market prices him behind Jared Goff (90.1) and four picks behind Jayden Daniels. Why the market is wrong: it is pricing the rushing-*yardage* trend as the whole rushing edge, when most of Hurts's rushing fantasy value is TD access — 30% red-zone rush share, an elite inside-5 role, and a tush push that survived 2026 without even a ban proposal (NBC Sports Philadelphia / FOX Sports, spring 2026) — and that layer is fully intact, worth ~6–8 rush TDs at near-zero variance. Sharper markets already agree: Underdog has him QB5–6 at ~69.8 and high-stakes at 73.7 (FantasyLife / SI, fetched 2026-07-07), so FFC 93.1 is a ~2-round cross-market arbitrage on a QB whose worst season in five years was a top-8 finish. The honest risk — first-time play-caller Sean Mannion's Shanahan-tree install shrinking the non-sneak designed-run layer further — is real but already reflected in a median built on 2025's reduced rushing, not 2024's.
Bull case
- The floor is provably elite and the price ignores it: five straight top-8 fantasy finishes including QB7 PPG / QB8 total in his *worst* rushing season (nflverse cache, 2025), now priced QB11 at pick 93 — behind Jared Goff. Sharper markets (Underdog 69.8, QB5–6; high-stakes 73.7, QB7) are ~2 rounds ahead of FFC; you are buying a consensus top-6 QB at a casual-market lag price.
- The TD engine is scheme-protected and rule-safe: 30% RZ rush share, 12 inside-5 carries, 6.3 rushing xTD, above-baseline goal-line conversion, and the tush push survived spring 2026 with no ban proposal even filed (NBC Sports Philadelphia / FOX Sports). In 4pt-TD scoring, 7–8 near-guaranteed rush TDs ≈ 11 pass TDs of value that no pocket QB at this price can match.
- Passing profile is quietly ascending into a friendlier scheme: career-high 454 attempts, elite CPOE (+3.2) for a fifth year, career-best deep-ball rate (14.3%), materially improved sack avoidance (pressure-to-sack 29.7%→20.5%) — now paired with a Shanahan-tree install (motion/PA up), a returning 5-man OL, and R1 capital + Hollywood Brown replacing a disgruntled WR1. The 21.0-PPG 2024 version is live at a 17.9-PPG price.
Bear case
- The rushing yardage decline is structural, not situational: designed runs fell to 3.4/g and 174 yards *while healthy*, he turns 28 in August (first aging-haircut year), and the new caller's tree historically uses modest designed QB runs — beat coverage already warns the new offense "could bring more of the same" (Inquirer, 2026-05-27). If the non-sneak run game keeps eroding, he's a ~25-attempt-per-game passer at −2.5 PROE on a clock-killing 10.5-win team, and the median slides toward 17 PPG.
- TD regression cuts both ways and passing is the exposed side: 25 pass TDs on a derived 18.3 xTD is a ~7-TD overshoot, propped by Goedert's outlier 11-TD season — regress both and 2026 can feel like a disappointment even with identical usage. The projection's 21-pass-TD median is a real haircut off the 2025 line the market remembers.
- Maximum environment uncertainty: first-time OC and play-caller (auto-low team stability), a WR room that is one proven player (Smith) plus a rookie slot, a 36-year-old RT off a foot injury, and a QB with a 2024 concussion on his ledger absorbing sneak-pile contact ~30 times a year. If the install stalls the way year-1 installs often do, the efficiency assumptions (7.15 YPA, 4.4% TD rate) are the first casualties.
Projection & comps
Bottom-up, two components, PPR/4pt/−1 INT (assumed). Team inputs from data/team-profiles/PHI.md (2026-07-07): ~61 plays/g, ~56% dropback rate, ~30 team pass att/g, PROE ≈ −2.5%, positive script (win total 10.5, BetMGM 2026-07-07).
| Scenario | Games | Pass | Rush | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Floor (p20) | 14 | 392 att, 2,700 yds (6.9 YPA), 16 TD, 8 INT | 78 car, 310 yds, 5 TD | ~220 (15.7/g) |
| Median (p50) | 16 | 470 att, 3,350 yds (7.15 YPA), 21 TD (xTD-anchored), 8 INT | 96 car (6.0/g), 400 yds, 7 TD | ~288 (18.0/g) |
| Ceiling (p80) | 17 | 510 att, 3,900 yds (7.65 YPA), 27 TD, 8 INT | 115 car, 510 yds (30/g), 10 TD | ~355 (20.9/g) |
- Pass TDs anchored to xTD, not the 25 actual: derived passing xTD (league TD rate per attempt by field-position bucket, pooled 2024–25 pbp) was 18.3 vs 25 actual in 2025 — he over-scored field-position expectation by ~7 (Goedert's 11 rec TD did the finishing). Median uses a ~4.4% rate on 470 att ≈ 21. 2024 was aligned (16.9 xTD vs 18).
- INTs from ball-security signal, not last year's count: FTN INT-worthy rate 2.2% (2025) / 3.6% (2024) vs actual INT rates of 1.3%/1.4% — mild positive luck, so median 8 regresses up from 6, not down.
- Rushing projected separately — it is the floor: kneel-free 2025 baseline 5.9 car/27.3 yds per game, decomposed (3.4 designed + 2.5 scramble/g). Age-28 season → first qb.md §3 haircut applies, but the designed layer already took its haircut in 2025; median holds ~6.0 car/g and ~25 yds/g under a first-year Shanahan-tree caller who retains the sneak package. Rush TDs anchored to derived rushing xTD 6.28 (2025) plus his above-baseline goal-line conversion (inside-2: 5 TD on 8 carries in 2025, 11 on 20 in 2024, vs 48% league rate) → 7 median.
- Games risk: medium — 15/16/16 games the last three seasons (2024 concussion cost two; Week 18 2025 was a healthy playoff rest — Bleeding Green Nation, Jan 2026). Carries are ~6/g and sneak-heavy (low-speed contact), below the ≥8/g nudge threshold.
- xFP: provider xFP
UNVERIFIED(none indata/); derived xTD anchors above substitute for the TD terms. - Scoring note: cache
fantasy_points_ppruses −2/INT vs the league's assumed −1, so cache PPG understates league scoring by ~0.3–0.4/g for Hurts.
Comps (nflverse cache): Hurts 2025 itself (301 pts, 18.8/g — the median already lived, pre-TD-regression); Hurts 2024 (315 pts in 15 g, 21.0/g — ceiling-side per-game shape); Jayden Daniels 2024 (356 pts, 20.9/g — ceiling shape); Caleb Williams 2025 (318 pts, 18.7/g — median-adjacent); Kyler Murray 2024 (297 pts, 17.5/g — floor-side shape, reduced-rushing dual threat).
Usage profile (opportunity core, qb.md §2)
All pbp-derived figures exclude QB kneels (11 kneels inflate the raw 105-carry line); nflverse pbp via nflreadpy, REG only, computed 2026-07-07.
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | Band (2025) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rush att/g (kneel-free) | 8.7 (131/15) | 5.9 (94/16) | Good, falling | pbp derived |
| Designed runs/g | 6.1 (92) | 3.4 (54) | — nearly halved | pbp derived (qb_scramble=0) |
| Designed rush rate (of team plays) | 8.4% (elite) | 5.4% | Good | pbp derived |
| Scramble rate (scr/dropback) | 8.9% | 7.6% | Elite (≥6%) | pbp derived |
| Rush yds/g (kneel-free) | 43.3 | 27.3 | Good (20–35) | pbp derived |
| RZ rush share (of PHI RZ carries) | 32.6% | 30.0% | Elite (≥18%) | pbp derived |
| Inside-5 carries | 21 (11 TD ins-2) | 12 (6 TD) | Elite (≥10) | pbp derived |
| QB sneaks (tush push) | 38 (11 TD) | 28 (5 TD) | Scheme-protected | FTN charting × pbp join |
| Rushing xTD (field-position derived) | 11.98 (14 actual) | 6.28 (8 actual) | Elite (≥6) | pbp derived |
| Dropbacks/g | 29.2 | 32.9 | Just under Good (33–38) | pbp derived |
| Pass att/g | 24.1 | 28.4 | Concern (<30) | passing.csv cache |
| Team PROE | −8.78% | −2.48% | Concern-adjacent (≤−4% is red; −2.5 is close) | pbp pass_oe; nfelo −2.5% cross-check (team profile) |
| xFP | UNVERIFIED | UNVERIFIED (18.8 actual PPG, QB7) | top-6/QB1-fringe actual | cache |
Read: the two halves of the rushing profile diverged in 2025 and the market is pricing only one of them. The *yardage* layer (designed keepers, scramble yards) fell from elite to merely good — 174 designed rush yards, a career low (Inquirer, 2026-05-27) — and a Shanahan-tree first-time caller gives no strong reason to project a rebound. But the *TD-access* layer is untouched: 30% RZ rush share, 12 inside-5 carries, a 6.3 rushing xTD, and a tush push package that faced no 2026 rule proposal. Within 2025 there was no late-season collapse (designed runs 3.5/g weeks 1–9 vs 3.2/g weeks 10+; rush yds/g 27.4 vs 27.1) — the step down happened between seasons, i.e., it was a play-caller decision under Patullo, whose scheme is now void. Meanwhile pass volume quietly grew to a career-high 454 attempts — the profile is migrating from run-heavy dual-threat toward balanced dual-threat, not toward game-managed.
Efficiency & talent signal (qb.md §5)
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | Band | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPA/dropback | +0.170 | +0.083 | Good (elite ≥0.18) | pbp derived (all Hurts dropbacks) |
| CPOE (pbp) | +7.52 | +3.18 | Elite (≥3.0), sticky, QB-owned | pbp derived |
| CPOE (NGS model) | +6.31 | +3.09 | Elite | ngs_passing cache |
| INT-worthy rate (FTN, TWP-adjacent) | 3.6% | 2.2% | Elite (<2.5%) | FTN × pbp join |
| Actual INT rate | 1.4% (5) | 1.3% (6) | Slightly luck-aided vs IW rate | cache |
| Pressure rate (charting defn) | 29.2% | 29.7% | Mid (OL 17th PBWR) | participation × pbp join |
| Pressure-to-sack | 29.7% | 20.5% | Concern → Good — big QB-owned improvement | participation × pbp join |
| Sack rate | 8.7% | 6.1% | Improved to ~league avg | pbp derived |
| aDOT (NGS intended air yds) | 7.99 | 8.95 | Elite band (7.5–9.5) | ngs_passing cache |
| Deep-ball rate (20+ air yds) | 10.2% | 14.3% | Elite (≥12%) | pbp derived |
| Play-action rate | 24.0% | 22.4% | Good; Mannion's GB prior 26.2% → tailwind | FTN × pbp join; team profile |
Read: every QB-owned trait is intact or improving — elite CPOE both seasons, elite ball security, and the long-standing sack problem genuinely improved (pressure-to-sack 29.7%→20.5%, sack rate 8.7%→6.1%) even as pressure held ~30%. The EPA dip from +0.17 to +0.08 is environment-flavored (highest team aDOT in the league at 9.1 per nfelo, a WR1 in a season-long trade standoff, interior OL slippage per the team profile). The 2025 deep-ball spike (14.3%) plus elite CPOE says the passing ceiling is real if the Mannion install adds the scheme help (motion 37%→GB-prior 44%, PA 22%→26%) that Patullo's offense lacked. The one efficiency red flag points the other way: 25 pass TDs on 18.3 xTD is regression fodder — the median already haircuts it to 21.
Context (from data/team-profiles/PHI.md, built 2026-07-07)
- Play-caller reset, stability: low. Patullo out after the wild-card loss; Sean Mannion, first-time OC and first-time play-caller (GB QB coach 2025, LaFleur/Shanahan tree). No play-calling history → all tendency priors weak. Hurts on the install: "very clear… you can definitely see the vision" (Inquirer, 2026-05-27); OTA reports describe more under-center, more motion, a "blend" of Mannion's Shanahan roots and past Eagles offenses (Inquirer OTA observations, 2026-05-27). Tree prior: efficiency-friendly, modest designed QB runs — the swing variable for the rushing yardage layer. The tush push is roster/identity-owned, not Patullo-owned, and PHI retains it (team profile).
- Pass-catcher turnover — continuity check (qb.md §4): A.J. Brown (121 targets, 26.1% TS) traded to NE 2026-06-02; with Dotson et al., ~157 of ~600 targets vacated (~26%) — below the 40% red line, and replaced with real capital (R1 P20 Makai Lemon, Hollywood Brown, Wicks). But target-corps *and* play-caller both changed → YPA carryover is not trusted; the projection widens the YPA band (6.9–7.65) around a 7.15 median vs 7.10 actual 2025. DeVonta Smith is a real WR1; Goedert (11 rec TD in 2025) is the red-zone hub and TD-regression risk vector.
- OL: all 5 starters return; 17th/16th in PBWR/RBWR in 2025 with interior slippage and Lane Johnson (36) off a Lisfranc sprain — mid band, rebound-to-top-10 upside on health. Pressure profile supports the improved sack numbers holding.
- Script/volume: win total 10.5 → positive script, leading-team volume cap; ~61 plays/g, ~30 team att/g. Hurts's path to top-3 overall is efficiency + TD access, not raw dropbacks — same as every Hurts season.
- Job security: absolute. 5-yr/$255M through 2028; backup is Tanner McKee (team profile). No benching/bridge risk of any kind.
- Age/pedigree: 27 (28 on 2026-08-07), 6 years exp, Oklahoma (Sleeper cache, 2026-07-07); 2020 R2 pick. Squarely in the QB peak window; first age-haircut year for the rush component, applied above.
Tripwires (re-run this eval if any fire)
- Run-package news: camp/preseason reporting that Mannion's offense carries no designed QB-run layer beyond sneaks, or explicit "protect Jalen" carry limits → cut rushing yardage component; verdict likely holds TARGET at 93 but re-run.
- ADP rises past ~70 (into round 6, converging with Underdog): the cross-market arbitrage is the edge — at Underdog's price he's a HOLD-to-soft-TARGET, not this verdict.
- Tush push rule action: any new ban proposal, in-season officiating point of emphasis, or injury-driven emergency review → the rush-TD anchor drops ~3 TDs; verdict re-run.
- DeVonta Smith extended absence or trade (he is the only proven target): passing environment re-derives downward.
- Lane Johnson foot setback or interior OL camp regression: sack-rate and YPA assumptions void; shave median.
Sources
data/stats/2025/&data/stats/2024/: passing.csv, rushing.csv, weekly.csv, ngs_passing.csv, pbp_summary.csv, ftn_charting.csv, participation.csv — nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07- Derived pbp analysis (this eval, computed 2026-07-07 from nflverse pbp 2024–25 REG via nflreadpy): designed/scramble splits, kneel-free rushing lines, RZ/inside-5/inside-2 carries, field-position-bucket rushing & passing xTD, EPA/dropback, pbp CPOE, deep-ball rate, PROE (
pass_oe), sneak counts (FTN join), pressure & pressure-to-sack (participation join), INT-worthy/PA/RPO rates (FTN join), QB PPG ranks data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv— FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07 (Hurts 93.1, QB11; Allen 27.8, Burrow 47.6, Lamar 53.0, Prescott 58.8, Maye 65.2, Mahomes 77.1, Herbert 77.4, Lawrence 80.6, Daniels 86.6, Goff 90.1, Purdy 96.3)data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json— age 27 (DOB 1998-08-07), 6 yrs exp, Oklahoma, active, depth chart 1data/team-profiles/PHI.md— built 2026-07-07 (Mannion hire + tree prior, A.J. Brown trade, OL, hierarchy, win total 10.5, tush push retention, McKee contingency)- Inquirer (2026-05-27, via search): Hurts on Mannion install; OTA observations (under-center uptick, 174 designed rush yards 2025 career low, "could bring more of the same")
- NBC Sports Philadelphia (spring 2026) + FOX Sports (2026): no tush push ban proposal for 2026; 2025 ban vote failed 22–10 (ESPN)
- FantasyLife (fetched 2026-07-07): Underdog ADP 69.8 QB5–6; expert range QB3–QB6; 2025 rush EPA +21.4 (9th) vs +51.5 (3rd) in 2024
- SI fantasy forecast (fetched 2026-07-07): high-stakes ADP 73.71 QB7; 20+ fantasy pts in 7 of first 8 games vs 2 of final 8; 2025 finish QB9/342.3 in that outlet's scoring
- Bleeding Green Nation (Jan 2026, via search): Week 18 2025 healthy rest for playoffs; 2024 concussion cost final two regular-season games (NFL.com)
UNVERIFIEDthis run: provider xFP, provider (PFF) TWP and pressure-to-sack (charting-derived substitutes used), PFR-definition pressure rate, McKee/Dalton trade cost