Philadelphia Eagles

PHI — team profile

Built per methodology/team-context.md. Every number needs a source + as-of date or the UNVERIFIED mark. Position evals cite this file; they do not re-research it.

Play-caller

• Calls plays: Sean Mannion, OC — confirmed (NBC Sports Philadelphia, 2026 OTAs coverage; philadelphiaeagles.com hire announcement 2026-01-30; Sirianni has not called plays since taking over in 2021, and reporting confirms Mannion carries play-calling). HC Nick Sirianni retained (6th season).
• Tenure with team: year 1 — hired late Jan 2026 after Kevin Patullo was let go following the wild-card loss (nfl.com, 2026-01). · Prior relationship with QB1: none — first year with Hurts.
• First-time OC and first-time play-caller (GB QBs coach 2025, GB offensive assistant 2024; 9-yr NFL QB with Rams/Vikings/Seahawks). Coaching-change protocol (methodology §9) applied: no play-calling history exists, so the Matt LaFleur / Shanahan-tree prior below is a weak prior, low confidence; expect a year-1 install drag (slower pace, lower motion early).

Last 3 play-calling stops (skip non-calling years):

GB/PHI motion, PA, personnel computed from data/stats/2025/participation.csv + ftn_charting.csv (nflverse, pulled 2026-07-07, REG only); PROE from nfeloapp.com (fetched 2026-07-07).

Read: Mannion comes from the LaFleur/Shanahan tree — expect a wide-zone, motion- and play-action-heavy install (GB prior: 44% motion, 26% PA vs PHI's 37%/22% last year) that spreads targets rather than force-feeding an alpha (GB WR1 TS just 18.5%). Roster-bounded adjustments: an elite RB (Barkley), a mobile QB, and the tush push keep the pass rate low regardless of tree; with A.J. Brown gone, DeVonta Smith is the only established target — expect his share to run well above Mannion's tree prior. Every 2025 scheme-dependent role (Patullo's designed touches) is void until re-established.

QB situation

• QB1: Jalen Hurts — max security (5-yr $255M ext through 2028, OverTheCap; benching risk: none). 2025: 3,224 yds, 25/6 TD-INT, 64.8% comp in 16 gms + 105 carries, 421 yds, 8 rush TD (data/stats/2025/passing.csv, rushing.csv).
• Backup: Tanner McKee — favored over Andy Dalton (acquired via trade, cost UNVERIFIED) per Bleeding Green Nation 53-man projection, 2026-06. Tier B — functional in spot starts, but the offense compresses and the QB-run/tush-push layer disappears.
• Contingency line: If Hurts misses time: McKee, tier B — pass rate roughly holds but aDOT drops, screens/checkdowns rise, rush volume shifts from QB to RBs (Barkley +2-3 carries/gm), Smith holds targets but loses deep efficiency, and the offense loses ~8 goal-line QB-sneak/scramble TD equity.

O-line

• Projected starters LT–RT: Jordan Mailata — Landon Dickerson — Cam Jurgens — Tyler Steen — Lane Johnson. Flags: Lane Johnson (36) returning from a Week 11 Lisfranc foot sprain that ended his 2025 (10 gms); avoided surgery, confirmed return for a 14th season and expected full strength (Inquirer, 2026-02-19). Dickerson down year (60.3 PFF pass-block grade, 51st of 81 G) and missed time; Jurgens 15 gms. Depth: Fred Johnson (proven swing RT, started 8 games in 2025), R3 P68 rookie OT Markel Bell, R6 OG Micah Morris.
• Interior vs edge: the 2025 slippage was interior-tilted (Dickerson/Jurgens both below their 2024 standard) while the edges were fine when healthy — full-strength Mailata + Lane Johnson is still a top-edge pair. If Lane's foot lingers, Fred Johnson at RT compresses the offense toward quick game; if the interior doesn't rebound, fade the deep-aDOT layer. Unit was 17th/16th by PBWR/RBWR in 2025 — priced as mid, not the historical elite, with rebound-to-top-10 upside on health.

Scheme family

• Run scheme: wide/outside zone base with gap/duo mixed (LaFleur-tree install; PHI retains its gap/QB-run and tush-push package) — RB profiles that fit: one-cut vision backs; Barkley fits any scheme, Bigsby's downhill style fits the duo/gap share, Shipley the satellite role.
• Pass-game family: Shanahan/McVay tree (LaFleur branch) — motion + play-action married to wide zone. Implications: motion and PA rates should climb from 2025's 37%/22% toward GB's 44%/26%; more schemed YAC and intermediate in-breakers, mid aDOT (2025 PHI aDOT 9.1 was the league's highest — expect it to come down); slot and YAC profiles gain, which is exactly the Makai Lemon profile.

Target/touch hierarchy & vacated math

Departed (name — 2025 targets / carries, data/stats/2025/receiving.csv + rushing.csv):

• A.J. Brown — 121 tgts / 0 carr — traded to NE 2026-06-02 for a 2028 R1 + 2027 R5 (ESPN, nfl.com)
• Jahan Dotson — 36 tgts — FA to ATL (phillyvoice tracker, 2026-03)
• A.J. Dillon — 3 tgts / 12 carr — not on 2026 roster projections (presumed departed)
• Kylen Granson — 9 tgts — squeezed out by R2 TE (presumed departed, contested)
• QB Sam Howell — FA to DAL

Vacated targets: 157 confirmed (169 w/ presumed) · Vacated carries: ~12

Arrivals (name — claim):

• Makai Lemon, WR (slot) — R1 P20 2026 (traded up 23+114+137 → 20 + 2027 R7 w/ DAL); Biletnikoff winner, USC (nfl.com, 2026-04-23). Presumptive round-1 claim.
• Hollywood Brown, WR — 1 yr / $6.5M FA (mid-March 2026, ESPN/A-to-Z tracker)
• Dontayvion Wicks, WR — trade from GB (2026 R5 + 2027 R6), then 1-yr ext $12.5M / $9M gtd (NBCSP, 2026-04); Mannion familiarity from GB
• Elijah Moore, WR — 1 yr / $1.315M (Spotrac, 2026-03-24) — depth-only money
• Eli Stowers, TE — R2 P54 2026, Vanderbilt (philadelphiaeagles.com draft class)
• Cole Payton, QB — R5 P178; Andy Dalton, QB — trade (cost UNVERIFIED)

Projected pecking order (2026):

TE2: Eli Stowers (R2) over Grant Calcaterra — 12-personnel was 24.9% in 2025 with a 14.7% 13P rate; Stowers' capital says the multi-TE lean survives the OC change (watch camp).

RB committee split: Barkley ~65% early-down lead + primary receiving back; Bigsby #2 early-down/short-yardage hammer (5.9 YPC on 58 carr in 2025, beat reporting pushes for more — expect 8-10 carr/gm); Shipley #3 satellite/change-of-pace. Goal-line: Barkley first, but Hurts/tush push takes the 1-yard TD equity. All three back (BGN, 2026-06).

Game environment

• Vegas win total: 10.5 (BetMGM, Over +120 / Under −145, as-of 2026-07-07) → script lean: positive
• Projected plays/game: ~61 (2025 baseline 60.9, pbp_summary; GB prior 60.6; install drag + positive script keep it slow) · Projected pass rate: ~56% of plays (dropback) (2025: 58.5% raw at −2.5 PROE; LaFleur-tree run lean + elite RB + positive script pull it down)
• Projected pass attempts/game: ~30 · rush attempts/game: ~27 (inputs: 61 plays × 0.56 ≈ 34 dropbacks − ~2 sacks − ~2.5 scrambles ≈ 30 att; 27 rushes incl. ~6 Hurts carries/sneaks; 2025 actuals: 29.4 team att/gm, 25.3 rush/gm)

Defensive identity

Per methodology §8 — consumed by DST evals (dst.md §3) and /weekly-edge coverage-matchup reads (in-season.md §2).

• Runs the defense: Vic Fangio, DC — confirmed; considered retirement, then confirmed return for a 3rd season (Inquirer/NBC Sports Philadelphia, 2026-02-04).
• Tenure with team: 3rd season (2024–) · New DC: no (dc_new: false) — continuity green flag: same DC ≥2 yrs; Eagles allowed 2nd-fewest points in NFL across 2024–25 (NBCSP, 2026-02).
• Front/scheme family: 4-down nickel / two-high Fangio shell — league's highest light-box rate (60.1%, 1st) and lowest heavy-box rate (Sharp Football, fetched 2026-07-07).

2025 results context: 19.1 PPG allowed, 21 takeaways, −0.050 EPA/play allowed (def_summary, 2025).

• Key defensive arrivals/departures (edge and CB1 first):
• IN: Jonathan Greenard, EDGE — trade from MIN during 2026 draft (2026 R3 P98 + 2027 R3 → Greenard + 2026 R7 P244) + 4-yr/$100M ext, $50M gtd (ESPN/CBS, 2026-04-25). Premium-edge arrival → +2-4 pt pressure-rate claim.
• OUT: Jaelan Phillips, EDGE — FA to CAR, 4 yr/$120M (ESPN tracker, 2026-03). Greenard replaces him roughly one-for-one.
• OUT: Za'Darius Smith, EDGE — retired mid-2025 (ESPN, Nov 2025). Brandon Graham 2026 status UNVERIFIED (hinted at 17th season, NBCSP 2026-02 — watch item).
• IN: Arnold Ebiketie, EDGE — 1 yr/up to $7.3M, $4.3M gtd (tracker, 2026-03); Keyshawn James-Newby, EDGE — R7.
• CB: Quinyon Mitchell + Cooper DeJean both return (3rd seasons); IN: Tariq Woolen — 1 yr/up to $15M (tracker, 2026-03) to fix the Kelee Ringo CB2 hole. OUT: LB Nakobe Dean (LV), S Reed Blankenship (HOU).
• Shadow-CB tendency: Mitchell travels — shadowed opposing WR1s from early 2025 on (Egbuka, Adams, Lamb; Inquirer, 2025-10-03; 41.6% comp allowed, best in NFL over 3 yrs per PFF). Expect shadow calls vs alpha X receivers.

Read: a low-blitz, elite-coverage defense that leans man/Cover-1 behind a 4-man rush (2nd-highest man rate, 31st blitz rate) — it suppresses opposing WR1s via the Mitchell shadow and is soft nowhere obvious; slot/option-route profiles vs DeJean are the least-bad entry. Greenard-for-Phillips keeps the pressure profile intact (8th in pressure) with Fangio continuity — top-tier DST floor, takeaway-dependent ceiling.

Stability & change log

• Stability: low — per methodology §10: first-time play-caller (auto-low) stacked with a skill-corps overhaul (WR1 traded, three veteran WR arrivals + R1 rookie, contested WR3 slot). Offsets that keep it high-floor low: same HC/QB1/DC and all 5 OL starters return.
• Watch items: (1) camp reporting on Lemon vs Hollywood Brown vs Wicks target order and who actually mans the slot; (2) Lane Johnson's foot in camp — any setback flips OL band; (3) McKee-Dalton QB2 battle; (4) Mannion install pace/motion reports vs the GB prior; (5) Brandon Graham return decision; (6) Goedert (31, 1-yr deal) usage vs R2 Stowers in 12P; (7) win total moves ≥1.5.