Don't Look at My Team

Dallas Goedert — TE, PHI (2026)

Verdict — HOLD (medium confidence) at ADP 128.9 (FFC PPR, 2026-07-07; TE12 off the board, ~round 11 in 12-team)

Goedert's 2025 TE7 finish was a TD mirage — 11 TDs against a 5.1 xTD (ESPN/Mike Clay, 2026-06-26), 35.7% of his fantasy points — but the market has already regressed him from a TE7 finish to a TE12 price, and at that price the profile and cost agree. His usage floor is genuinely top-8 (18% target share, 8th; 15 RZ targets, 7th; 21% first-read share, 8th; ~89% pass-snap participation), and A.J. Brown's 121 vacated targets plus a blocking-only TE2 (Johnny Mundt) keep a path to 90+ targets alive. Against that: age 31.5 with visible decline markers (career-low 9.9 YPC, YPRR 1.43 = 33rd of 59, PFF grade 21st of 37), a first-time play-caller voiding his 2025 role, an R1 slot WR (Makai Lemon) competing for exactly his middle-of-field targets, and a seven-year record of never playing a full season. The up-side and down-side skews roughly cancel; I cannot articulate a "why the market is wrong" thesis in either direction, so per scoring-framework §1 this is a HOLD: take him if he falls, don't reach.

Scarcity placement (te.md §7): punt-tier asset by projected edge — median ~10.7 PPG vs a streamer baseline of ~10.8–11.3 (2025 TE12 = 10.32 PPG, weekly.csv, + 0.5–1.0 streaming bump), i.e., edge ≈ 0 at the median, +1.5 at the ceiling. He is *not* a pay-up asset and he is *not* dead-zone priced (that's rounds 5–8) — he's a reasonable late TE1 anchor for a punt build, at the top of the punt band. PlayerProfiler's 2025 Value Over Stream of +1.6 (fetched 2026-07-07) says even the 11-TD version only beat streaming by a point and a half.

Bull case

121 vacated A.J. Brown targets with the weakest possible TE-room competition — a blocking TE2 and a rookie behind on the playbook — plus 8th-best first-read share and the Hurts-trust reporting: the path to 90–100 targets (~TE4-5) costs a round-11 pick.
The scheme change helps him: LaFleur-tree install raises PA toward 26% and pulls the league's highest aDOT down into the intermediate MOF; the tree just fed Tucker Kraft 5.5 targets/game (GB 2025, cached data).
The RZ role is volume-real even after the luck washes out: 15 inside-10 targets (7th at TE) is a repeatable role on a 10.5-win offense; 5–6 TDs is the *regressed* expectation, not the bull case.

Bear case

The 2025 points were TDs, and the TDs were conversion luck: 11 TDs on 5.1 xTD and just 5 end-zone targets; strip it and his usage produced ~10 PPG — a streamer. 39.4 yds/gm was his worst since his rookie year, YPRR ranked 33rd, PFF grade 21st of 37, and beat reporting says the blocking regressed too (PhillyVoice, 2026-07-03).
Age-31 cliff stacked on chronic absence: 93 games in his first seven seasons, never a full 17, 10 games in 2024, knee designations opening and closing 2025 — on a one-year deal with a second-round succession pick in the building.
The offense structurally caps him: ~30 pass attempts/game, a first-time play-caller with zero history of feeding him, an R1 slot WR hunting the same MOF targets, and the tush push confiscating goal-line TDs.

Projection & comps

Bottom-up, PHI team context: ~61 plays/gm, ~30 pass att/gm ⇒ ~460–475 team targets (team profile, 2026-07-07; 2025 actual: 464 targets, 606 pass plays, receiving.csv/pbp_summary.csv).

Scenario	Games	TS	Targets	Rec (73%)	Yds (y/tgt)	TD	PPR pts	PPG
Floor (20th)	11	17%	53	37	370 (7.0)	3	~90	8.2
Median (50th)	14	~20%	80	58	620 (7.8)	5	~150	10.7
Ceiling (80th)	16	~22%	99	73	820 (8.3)	8	~200	12.5

TD anchor: xTD 5.1 in 2025 on 15 inside-10 targets converted at 11/15 (ESPN/Clay, 2026-06-26). Median 5 assumes the RZ *role* holds and the conversion regresses; ceiling 8 needs the role plus modest luck; Hurts/tush-push takes the 1-yard equity (team profile).
Games risk: HIGH — 93 games across his first seven seasons (~13.3/season, ESPN 2026-06-26), 10 games in 2024 (hamstring/knee, receiving.csv 2024), knee designations bookending 2025 (Out wk2 and wk18, injuries.csv), age 31.5 on a 1-yr deal.
Comps (verified from data/stats/ cached 2026-07-07): Zach Ertz 2024 WAS (age 34: 91 tgts, 66-654-7, 177.4 PPR/17 gms — aging trust TE, new offense, RZ role) · Hunter Henry 2025 NE (age 31: 87 tgts, 60-768-7, 178.8/17) · Travis Kelce 2025 KC (age 36: 108 tgts, 76-851-5, 193.2/17 — the high-target version) · Juwan Johnson 2025 NO (102 tgts, 77-889-3, 179.9/17 — the TD-unlucky mirror). The comp band brackets the median-to-ceiling range; note all four played 17 games — Goedert's missed-game history is why his median total sits below them at similar PPG.
External projections: data/projections/ does not exist — no sanity file. Mike Clay projects 6 TDs in 2026 (ESPN, 2026-06-26), consistent with the median here.

Usage profile (te.md §2 table)

Metric	2025	2024	Verdict
Route participation	~89% pass-snap participation (412 of 462 active-week team pass plays, participation.csv proxy; true RP a few pts lower after pass-block snaps)	68% proxy (injury-distorted: two partial games)	Elite — gate passed. 13 of 15 weeks ≥79%, floor wk8 64%
TPRR	~0.20 proxy (82 tgts / 412 pass snaps; true TPRR slightly higher)	0.25 proxy (small sample, 207 snaps)	Good, verging elite — he earns when he runs
YPRR	1.43 (33rd of 59 TEs, PlayerProfiler via search, 2026-07-07; matches 591/412 from cached data)	2.40 proxy (10-gm sample)	Good band but mid-ranked — per-route juice declining
Target share	17.7% (`receiving.csv`; 18.4% by PP qualifying defn, 8th)	12.4% (10 gms)	Good (16–21 band); projects ~19–21% post-AJB
RZ targets	15, 7th at TE (ESPN/Clay + PlayerProfiler-sourced rank, 2026-06/07); team RZ target share UNVERIFIED	UNVERIFIED	Good-to-elite count — the role is real
End-zone targets	5 — most since 2018, but not top-5 at position (ESPN/Clay, 2026-06-26)	UNVERIFIED	Modest — the 11 TDs were conversion, not volume. xTD 5.1
Detached rate (slot/wide)	UNVERIFIED — no free alignment source; role re-projects under new OC anyway	UNVERIFIED	Watch camp: Mannion-tree install determines it
MOF vs boundary mix	UNVERIFIED; aDOT 7.1 (NGS `avg_intended_air_yards`) + 9.9 YPC imply short MOF work	aDOT 6.8	Consistent with seam/underneath profile
xFP	xTD 5.1 vs 11 actual; PP VOS +1.6 PPG over stream	—	The gap between actual (12.34 PPG, TE5) and expected is the whole story

2×2 read (te.md §2): RP ≥80% with TPRR ~0.20 = a legitimate full-time, target-earning TE — no decoy or blocking-Y signal in the usage. The concern rows are all *quality* rows: YPRR rank, end-zone volume, age. Weekly shape confirms TD dependence: 4 of 15 weeks under 8 PPR points, stdev 6.9 on a 12.3 PPG mean; TD weeks 15.8–26.0, blank weeks 4.0–4.8 (weekly.csv).

First-read share 21% (8th of 59, PlayerProfiler via search 2026-07-07) — Hurts's structural trust is the stickiest thing in the profile: beat coverage calls him one of only two players Hurts "definitively trusts" post-AJB (PhillyVoice, 2026-07-03).

Context (cites `data/team-profiles/PHI.md`, built 2026-07-07)

New play-caller, low stability: Sean Mannion, first-time OC/play-caller (LaFleur/Shanahan tree, GB QB coach 2025). Every 2025 Patullo-scheme role is void; alignment/route mix must be re-proven in camp. Tree prior is TE-friendly: GB 2025 fed its TE room 98 targets and Tucker Kraft 5.5 tgt/gm (44 in 8 games) before his injury (receiving.csv GB rows); LaFleur-tree PA rate ~26% (≥25% = genuine TE boost per te.md §5) and PHI's league-high 9.1 aDOT should compress toward the intermediate MOF — Goedert's habitat.
Volume is the tax: ~30 pass att/gm projected (run-lean tree + Barkley + tush push + positive script at a 10.5 win total). A 20% share of a bottom-third pass volume is how a good profile produces a streamer median.
Target hierarchy: #2 behind DeVonta Smith (project 26%+), ahead of R1 P20 slot WR Makai Lemon, Hollywood Brown, Barkley, Wicks. 157 confirmed vacated targets (A.J. Brown 121 traded to NE 2026-06-02). Lemon is the specific threat — te.md §6: a high-capital slot WR hits the TE's MOF targets first.
TE room (updated vs profile): PhillyVoice (2026-07-03) reports Johnny Mundt — a pure blocking TE with Mannion familiarity — as the likely TE2, R2 rookie Eli Stowers behind in the install after a quiet, leg-injury-limited spring, and Calcaterra retained but 4th. Near-term this *protects* Goedert's routes (the TE2 blocks, the rookie waits); the profile's Stowers-as-TE2 line is superseded. Stowers' 4.51-speed athletic profile is the succession plan and a live midseason route threat.
OL/QB: all 5 starters back, mid-band unit (17th/16th PBWR/RBWR); Hurts locked in — his accuracy and RZ trust are the floor, his low dropback volume the cap.
Contract: re-signed 1 yr/$7M gtd 2026-03-16 (Spotrac via team profile) — a one-year bridge, which is also what it says about the team's long-view.

Tripwires (re-run this eval if any fire)

Camp/preseason reports of Eli Stowers running with the 1s or eating 12-personnel routes (TE2 route growth = the classic route tax).
Any Goedert knee/soft-tissue flare in camp — the 2025 season was bookended by knee Outs; at 31.5 one report moves games_risk from high to thesis-breaking.
Camp reports Lemon as Hurts's primary MOF/slot read — demotes Goedert to third read and the target projection with it.
Mannion install reports showing Goedert inline-blocking heavy / Mundt taking passing-down snaps, or a rising pass-block rate in preseason.
ADP rises inside ~105 (into the TE8-9 range) — the price-profile agreement breaks and this flips to FADE.

Sources

data/stats/2025/ + data/stats/2024/ — receiving.csv, weekly.csv, snap_counts.csv, participation.csv (RP/TPRR proxies computed: pass play = charted time_to_throw or route; REG only), ngs_receiving.csv, injuries.csv, rosters.csv, pbp_summary.csv — nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07
data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv — ADP 128.9, TE12 (FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07)
data/team-profiles/PHI.md — built 2026-07-07 (Mannion hire, AJB trade, hierarchy, volume projections, win total)
ESPN Fantasy, Mike Clay, 2026-06-26 — TD-regression piece: 15 inside-10 targets, 11/15 converted, xTD 5.1 (7th), 5 end-zone targets, 24 TDs in first 93 games, 2026 projection 6 TDs
PhillyVoice, 2026-07-03 — TE room: Mundt likely TE2, Stowers behind install + spring leg injury, Calcaterra 4th, Goedert blocking regression, Hurts-trust note
PlayerProfiler player page + search-sourced ranks (fetched 2026-07-07) — YPRR 1.43 (33rd/59), TS 18.4% (8th), first-read share 21% (8th), RZ targets 15 (7th), 12.3 PPG (TE5), VOS +1.6; PFF grade 66.8 (21st/37) via search
RotoBaller 2026 outlook (2026-07) — market framing: "strong red zone profile, low-end TE1"
Age/draft: rosters.csv (DOB 1995-01-03; 2018 R2 P49)
UNVERIFIED: 2025 detached rate (inline/slot/wide split), MOF-vs-boundary target mix, team RZ target share %, 2024 RZ/end-zone counts, provider xFP season total