Don't Look at My Team

Darnell Mooney — WR, NYG — 2026

Scoring note: the tasking for this eval said to assume full PPR pending league confirmation, but methodology/league-settings.md now shows scoring confirmed 2026-07-08: half-PPR, 6pt pass TD, no positional premiums. The confirmed file is the contract source, so this projection is in half-PPR. (Full-PPR equivalents ≈ +0.5 × receptions: floor ~48, median ~102, ceiling ~156.)

Verdict

HOLD at a mock-undrafted price (absent from FFC top-288 mocks, ffc-ppr 2026-07-07; Sleeper search-rank tail, 2026-07-08), medium confidence. The market prices Mooney as free, and the profile mostly agrees: his 2025 season in Atlanta was a full-blown collapse (72 targets → 32-443-1, 44.4% catch, TPRR 0.161, YPRR 0.99 — every earning metric in the concern band while running ~90% of routes, the classic "high RP + low TPRR = capped" sell quadrant, wr.md §2), and his 2026 home is a run-lean, install-year Giants offense projected at ~30 pass attempts/game where Isaiah Likely's $40M, Slayton, Calvin Austin III, rookie R3 Malachi Fields, and two pass-catching RBs all hold claims. What keeps this from AVOID — and what makes him a legitimate watchlist name — is a live contingent path: he was a first-team starter all spring, Malik Nabers may open on PUP with Week 1 in doubt (PFR/Schefter via team profile, April–June 2026), Slayton is coming off sports-hernia surgery (SI Giants, June 2026), and Mooney's only 1,000-yard season (81-1055 in 2021, CHI — PFR) came with Matt Nagy, the Giants' new play-caller, running the offense. No "market is wrong" thesis is required or offered: undrafted is roughly the right price in a 12-team, half-PPR, 6-bench league. Do not spend a pick; put him on the September waiver watchlist keyed to the Nabers/slot-battle tripwires below.

Bull case

Free, with a live September path: first-team starter all spring; Nabers likely opens on PUP and Slayton is post-hernia — if that world holds through August, Mooney opens as a legit starter with 70%+ routes at zero acquisition cost, exactly the contingent-value shape the deep pool is for.
Play-caller reunion with proof of concept: Nagy's Bears made Mooney a 1,000-yard WR (81-1055-4 in 2021) and the 2026 scheme (slot, condensed releases, RPO quick game) targets his skill set far better than Atlanta's 14.2-aDOT decoy role; his separation (3.02 NGS) never declined even in the bad year.
The 2025 collapse has real excuses: camp shoulder (missed all preseason), an early hamstring, and a Penix vertical offense that gave him the league's most fragile target diet — his 2024 profile with a functional veteran QB (0.203 TPRR, 1.90 YPRR, 19.7% TS) was a startable WR2's, and that was 18 months ago, not five years ago.

Bear case

The recent record is the sell quadrant: 90% routes, 0.161 TPRR, 0.99 YPRR, 44% catch rate, WOPR 0.38 — he got every opportunity to earn in 2025 and didn't, and at age 28.7 and ~175 lbs a speed-dependent profile's bad year is more often a cliff than a blip (wr.md §9).
Worst-case target ecosystem even if he starts: ~30 att/gm install-year offense, TE-heavy personnel gating WR3 routes, and four-plus credible claims (Likely $40M, Nabers when healthy, Slayton, Austin, Fields, two receiving RBs) — the median outcome *with a starting job* is still only ~60 targets.
The contested slot is genuinely contested: Austin ran first-team slot all spring and holds SWR1 on Ourlads; Mooney had a "quiet spring" (BBV, June 2026). Lose that battle with Nabers healthy and he's a WR4/5 gadget — the 40-point floor — with cut risk on a 1-year deal if the room squeezes.

Projection & comps

Bottom-up (team volume from data/team-profiles/NYG.md, built 2026-07-07: ~62.5 plays/gm × ~55% dropback ≈ 34.4 dropbacks/gm, ~585 charted-dropback route opportunities over 17, ~30 att/gm):

Scenario	Games	Routes (RP)	TPRR	Targets	Catch%	Rec	Yds (Y/tgt)	TD	Half-PPR pts
Floor (20th)	14	193 (40%)	0.16	31	55%	17	235 (7.6)	1	40
Median (50th)	15	335 (65%)	0.18	60	57%	34	480 (8.0)	3	85
Ceiling (80th)	16	429 (78%)	0.205	88	59%	52	730 (8.3)	5	130

TPRR anchor: median 0.18 sits between his 2025 collapse (0.161) and his 2024 Cousins-year rate (0.203), leaning down for the densest target competition of his career; ceiling 0.205 = his 2024 rate, activated only in the Nabers-out world. Floor 0.16 = 2025 repeat as a rotational WR4.
RP anchor: the swing variable. He ran 90–94% routes the last two years as a locked starter (participation proxy), but the NYG role is a contested slot/Z rotation in an offense that leans 12/21 personnel (Roman/Ricard overlay gates WR3 snaps — team profile). Median 65% assumes he wins-but-splits; floor assumes Austin takes the slot and Nabers returns early.
TD anchor (xTD): 2024–25 actual TD/target = 4.7% and 1.4%; an aDOT-normalizing slot/Z role under a west-coast caller at ~4.5–5%/tgt → ~3 median on 60 targets. His 2025 rate was unluckily low; his usage was also TD-poor (deep decoy). Provider xTD/xFP: UNVERIFIED.
Games-played risk: medium. 15 and 16 games the last two seasons, but 2025 included a camp shoulder injury (dove for a Penix deep ball, missed all preseason + Week 1 — atlantafalcons.com, July–Sept 2025) and a hamstring ruling him out weeks 5–6 (ESPN, Oct 2025). A 172–177-lb, age-28.7 speed profile (rosters.csv DOB 1997-10-29) carries soft-tissue recurrence risk per scoring-framework §4. No current injury flag (Sleeper feed, 2026-07-07).
Sanity check: median 85 ≈ 5.7 PPG ≈ WR70+ seasonal — unrosterable in this format; even the 80th-percentile outcome (~130, ~8 PPG) is a bye-week WR5. The asymmetry a free player needs exists only in the Nabers-PUP branch, and it is capped by team pass volume. No external projections in data/projections/ (dir absent) to cross-check — noted.
Comps (veteran deep/slot WR3 on run-tilted offenses; Kupp line from data/stats/2025/receiving.csv, others approximate historical lines): Cooper Kupp SEA 2025 (47-593-2, ~88 half-PPR — the run-lean WR2 median), Darnell Mooney CHI 2023 (31-414-1, ~62 — his own floor), Tim Patrick DET 2024 (33-394-3, ~70 — vet WR3 on a run-first team), Josh Reynolds DET 2023 (40-608-5, ~110 — good-outcome flavor), Rashid Shaheed NO 2023 (46-719-5, ~125 — the ceiling shape: deep-slot hybrid with schemed touches).

Usage profile

Local numbers from data/stats/<yr>/receiving.csv, ngs_receiving.csv, snap_counts.csv, and a route-participation proxy computed from participation.csv (on-field share of charted team pass plays, REG only), pulled 2026-07-07.

Metric	2024 (ATL, 16 g)	2025 (ATL, 15 g)	Band (wr.md §2/§6)	Read
Targets	106	72	—	Locked WR2 volume → decoy volume
Target share	19.7%	13.9%	good → concern	Role demotion under Penix-era offense
TPRR	0.203 (106/523)	0.161 (72/446)	ok → concern (<0.18)	Earning rate cratered in year 2 of same team
Route participation (proxy)	94.4%	90.1%	elite	Routes were never the problem
Air-yards share	29.2%	24.4%	good → borderline	Still a real downfield claim
WOPR	0.499	0.379	mid → concern (<0.40)	Sub-startable opportunity
aDOT (NGS intended)	12.7	14.2	intermediate → deep	2025 pushed to the fragile >14 band
Catch rate (NGS)	60.4%	44.4%	—	Deep usage + Penix accuracy + shoulder
YPRR	1.90	0.99	ok → concern (<1.5)	One year each side — 2-season rule says unproven change, but 2025 is the recent evidence
First downs per route	0.092	0.056	good → concern	Drive relevance halved
YAC over expected (NGS)	−0.26	−0.23	negative 2 yrs	No after-catch value — boundary/vertical catches
Avg separation (NGS)	2.98	3.02	average	Separation held even in the bad year
RZ target share / end-zone tgts	UNVERIFIED	UNVERIFIED	—	Not in local tables; TD access has never been his profile (1 TD in 2025)
Drop rate / MOF-boundary mix / man-zone splits / slot%	UNVERIFIED	UNVERIFIED	—	Not attributable from local charting; no provider export
xFP	UNVERIFIED	UNVERIFIED (actual: 82.3 PPR = 66.3 half, 4.4 PPG)	—	Actual scoring was WR8x-level

The §2 2×2 read: 90% RP with 0.161 TPRR is the capped/sell quadrant — he was on the field and simply not earning. The partial excuse: ATL 2025 used him as a pure vertical stretch (aDOT 14.2) for an inaccurate deep-ball rookie-contract QB, and his separation (3.02) held steady — this reads more like a role/QB-context collapse than a legs collapse. But wr.md §6's QB-vs-WR test (a good WR with a bad QB shows *high* TPRR + low catch rate) only half-clears him: his TPRR fell too.

Pedigree screens (methodology/prospect-pedigree.md, deep-pool protocol): 2020 R5 pick #173, Tulane (rosters.csv) — day-3 capital, and at year 7 capital predictive power is fully decayed; the NFL record rules. Age 28.7 at kickoff (DOB 1997-10-29) — inside the wr.md §9 fade window for speed-dependent profiles ("fade speed-dependent profiles from 30", earlier for slighter frames; he is 172–177 lbs). The year-2/3 breakout and post-hype screens are long closed. What survives: a genuine 81-1055-4 season in 2021 (PFR career page — pre-2026 history) and a 64-992-5 WR2 season with Cousins in 2024 (receiving.csv) — the talent floor is real NFL starter, not camp body.

Context (team profile: `data/team-profiles/NYG.md`, built 2026-07-07)

Everything is new: HC John Harbaugh, OC/play-caller Matt Nagy (presumed-to-confirmed), Greg Roman run game, stability rated low — 2025 NYG tendencies are void; ranges widened per the profile.
Volume ceiling: power-run identity + year-1 install drag → ~62.5 plays/gm, ~30 att/gm (~510 attempts) at a neutral 7.5 win total (BetMGM, 2026-05-20). This is a bottom-third target pie, and Dart's RPO/scramble game (86 carries, 9 rush TD in 2025 — nflverse) taxes both pass volume and TD access.
Role: signed 1-yr, up to $10M (ESPN FA tracker) — real one-year starter money. Arrived as the presumptive Wan'Dale Robinson slot replacement (140 vacated slot targets), was a first-team starter throughout OTAs/minicamp alongside Austin and Fields with Nabers/Slayton sidelined (Big Blue View, June 2026; NY Sports Day, 2026-06-07), but the slot job is CONTESTED — the team profile and Ourlads (2026-07-07) list Austin as SWR1 after he ran first-team slot all spring, with Mooney a slot/Z rotation at #4 in the pecking order behind Nabers, Likely, and Slayton. BBV's read: "Mooney has the edge for the slot starter role right now... not insulated from competition," and he had "a quiet spring."
Target competition: the ~166 vacated targets were re-claimed with heavy capital — Likely (3yr/$40M, presumptive #2 claim), R3 #74 Fields, Austin ($4.5M), plus OBJ/JuJu camp bodies, Theo Johnson in 12 personnel, and Skattebo/Tracy west-coast RB targets. Mooney is no better than the 4th–5th read at full health.
The contingent path (why he's on the watchlist at all): Nabers had a second cleanup surgery, is expected to open camp on PUP, Week 1 in doubt (PFR/Schefter/SI via team profile, April–June 2026). If Nabers misses September, "everyone shifts up one" (Big Blue View, June 2026) and Mooney is a three-down starter for a play-caller who already made him a 1,000-yard receiver. Slayton's sports-hernia recovery (SI Giants, June 2026) doubles the path.
Scheme fit: Nagy's west-coast/RPO structure with condensed formations is the §10 semi-green flag — a slot move for a 172-lb press-vulnerable frame, with shorter aDOT and manufactured touches that would repair his catch rate and PPR floor. The OL (strong tackles, rookie R1 RG) points to quick game early — helps a slot/underneath role, hurts the 14-aDOT vertical role he played in 2025.

Tripwires

Nabers placed on reserve-PUP (out 4+ games) or ruled out for Week 1 while Mooney runs first-team → re-run; upgrades to a legitimate last-round/waiver-add TARGET for September.
Camp/preseason reporting settles the slot on Calvin Austin III (or Mooney is cut/traded) → path dead; drop to AVOID/zero, remove from watchlist.
Preseason usage shows Mooney ≥80% routes with schemed touches (screens/motion/RPO reads) from Nagy → earning-rate excuse gains evidence; revisit upward.
Any new shoulder/hamstring soft-tissue injury in camp → soft-tissue recurrence at 28+ on a slight frame; treat as zero.
ADP moves inside ~top-200 (WR65-ish) on Nabers news → price no longer free; re-run before paying anything.

Sources

data/stats/2025/ and data/stats/2024/: receiving.csv (targets, TS, AYS, yards, TDs, first downs, PPR points), ngs_receiving.csv (intended air yards/aDOT, separation, catch%, YAC over expected), snap_counts.csv (weekly snap%; 2024 avg 92.8%), participation.csv (route-participation proxy = on-field share of charted team pass plays: 2024 523/554 routes, 2025 446/495), rosters.csv (DOB 1997-10-29, 2020 R5 #173 CHI, Tulane) — nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07.
data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json: age 28, NYG, RWR/3 depth listing, search_rank 194, no injury flag.
data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv: Mooney absent from FFC top-288 (row present with empty ADP, sleeper-searchrank, 2026-07-08); NYG neighbors — Skattebo 37.9, Nabers 43.0, Likely 138.7.
data/team-profiles/NYG.md (built 2026-07-07): Nagy/Roman/Harbaugh structure, volume model (~62.5 plays, ~30 att/gm), pecking order (Mooney #4, slot CONTESTED vs Austin), vacated-target math (~166), Nabers PUP reporting, win total 7.5.
methodology/league-settings.md: half-PPR + 6pt pass TD confirmed 2026-07-08 (supersedes the tasking's full-PPR assumption).
Web (fetched 2026-07-08): Big Blue View — "Mooney has the edge for the slot starter role," starter throughout OTAs, quiet spring, Nabers-out contingency (June 2026); NY Sports Day minicamp WR battle (2026-06-07) — Mooney/Austin/Fields first team, "played well under Matt Nagy"; SI Giants training-camp WR depth chart piece (fetched 2026-07-08) — Nabers PUP-or-ready timeline, Slayton sports hernia, "tough sledding for Mooney," bubble names; atlantafalcons.com (July–Sept 2025) — camp shoulder injury, missed preseason + Week 1; ESPN (Oct 2025) — hamstring, ruled out; The Falcoholic (2025-07-25) — shoulder mechanism; CBS Sports/RotoWire career summaries — 2024/2025 lines, "failed to catch more than four passes in any 2025 game."
PFR career page (pre-2026 history, not re-fetched): 2021 CHI 81-1055-4 under Nagy — his lone 1,000-yard season.
UNVERIFIED: RZ/end-zone target counts, provider xFP/xTD, drop rate, slot/wide alignment splits, MOF-vs-boundary mix, man/zone coverage splits, 2026 contract guarantee structure beyond "1-yr up to $10M."