Los Angeles Rams

LAR — team profile

Built per methodology/team-context.md. Every number needs a source + as-of date or the UNVERIFIED mark. Position evals cite this file; they do not re-research it.

2025 context: Rams went 12-5 (2nd NFC West), beat CAR and CHI in the playoffs, and lost the NFC Championship 31-27 at Seattle (therams.com recap; Wikipedia 2025 Rams season — fetched 2026-07-07). Stafford won MVP (league-high 4,707 yds, 46 TD — NFL.com, Feb 2026). The 2026 offseason was all-in: Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie trades on defense, QB-of-the-future Ty Simpson at #13, near-total offensive continuity.

Play-caller

• Calls plays: Sean McVay (HC) — confirmed incumbent: McVay "remains the play-caller and guiding mind of the offense" after the 2026 staff reshuffle; hiring Kingsbury/promoting Scheelhaase "doesn't mean McVay will relinquish play-calling duties in 2026" (LAFB Network, 2026 offseason; therams.com 2026 coaching-staff announcement, fetched 2026-07-07). OC turnover is real but cosmetic to the caller: Mike LaFleur left for Arizona; Nate Scheelhaase promoted to OC (from pass-game coordinator), Kliff Kingsbury hired as Assistant HC (ex-WAS OC), Dave Ragone QB coach/associate coordinator (therams.com, "Rams' 2026 coaching staff set", fetched 2026-07-07).
• Tenure with team: 10th season as HC/play-caller (therams.com, 2026) · Prior relationship with QB1: 6th season with Stafford (2021 SB LVI together)

Last 3 play-calling stops (McVay has called LAR's plays since 2017 — rows are his last three seasons):

Read: McVay 2025 made an intentional philosophical shift pass-heavy (PROE from −3.0% in 2024 to top-3 in 2025 — FantasyLife/nfelo, fetched 2026-07-07) while simultaneously going TE-heavy: 30.2% 13 personnel (four-TE room) with only 59% 11 personnel — WR3 snaps are gated hard, and the passing volume concentrates on two WRs + the TE room. Motion (50.6%) and PA (32.7%, elite band) remain the McVay signatures; RB targets (11.0%) are bottom-band — receiving value for RBs is capped by design. With the whole skill core returning and Kingsbury/Scheelhaase layered under the same caller, expect continuity, not reinvention.

QB situation

• QB1: Matthew Stafford — reigning MVP, age 38; 1-yr/$55M extension (up to $60M) agreed Feb–Mar 2026, ~$45M in 2026, $40M fully guaranteed as of 2026-03-15 (NFL.com / CBS Sports, fetched 2026-07-07); benching risk: none ("This is Matthew's team" — McVay at the draft, ESPN, Apr 2026)
• Backup: Ty Simpson (rookie, R1 #13 — Alabama), competing with Stetson Bennett for QB2 (ESPN draft analysis, Apr 2026) — tier B/C hybrid: R1 capital + McVay scheme support says B, zero NFL snaps says C early. Treat as C in Sep–Oct, B by midseason (low confidence — no pro sample).
• Contingency line: If Stafford misses time: Simpson (or Bennett short-term). Expect pass rate −4–6 pts toward the run/PA game, aDOT down, and Nacua's target share holds (slot/YAC profile survives) while Adams's contested-catch/deep role degrades most. Kyren/Corum volume rises on positive-script protection. Stafford is 38 with a 2025 back-injury history managed via rest days — games-risk is medium, so position evals must widen ranges downward per methodology §3.

O-line

• Projected starters LT–RT (Ourlads, fetched 2026-07-07): LT Alaric Jackson (1,266 snaps 2025), LG Steve Avila (1,051), C Coleman Shelton (1,335), RG Kevin Dotson (1,025), RT Warren McClendon Jr. (882 snaps in 2025 filling in — the de facto starter already after Rob Havenstein retired this offseason, PFN/NFL.com departures list, fetched 2026-07-07). Depth: R3 #93 OT Keagen Trost (rookie flag), Beaux Limmer, Justin Dedich, David Quessenberry. Note: four of five starters are in expiring contracts (ESPN draft analysis, Apr 2026) — a 2027 problem, not a 2026 one.
• Interior vs edge: interior (Avila–Shelton–Dotson) is the strength of a top-8 unit in both phases — no interior-pressure red flag, deep game and QB efficiency fully supported. The only question is RT, where McClendon already logged ~900 quality snaps in 2025 (the unit posted its 7th/4th ranks largely *with* him after Havenstein's injury). Modest edge risk only; no compression flag.

Scheme family

• Run scheme: wide/outside zone base (McVay/Shanahan tree) with duo/gap mixed from the heavy 12/13 sets — RB fits: one-cut, vision-first backs; Kyren Williams and Blake Corum both fit; the 5.6 adjusted-line-yards unit (FTN, 2025) inflates any back's efficiency.
• Pass-game family: Shanahan/McVay tree — high motion (50.6%), elite PA rate (32.7%), condensed looks, intermediate in-breakers and YAC engine (FTN via nflverse, pulled 2026-07-07). Implications: slot/YAC profiles feast (Nacua's role is the archetype), mid aDOT (9.1 — nfelo, fetched 2026-07-07), WR1 target share can run huge (28.6% in 2025); the 30% 13-personnel rate makes the TE room fantasy-relevant in aggregate but splits it four ways, and it kills the WR3.

Target/touch hierarchy & vacated math

Departed (2025 targets / carries — nflverse receiving.csv & rushing.csv, pulled 2026-07-07):

• WR Tutu Atwell — 15 tgt / 0 car (signed MIA — Turf Show Times/Yardbarker, 2026 FA, fetched 2026-07-07)
• QB Jimmy Garoppolo — 9 car (QB3, off roster — Ourlads, fetched 2026-07-07)
• (Non-skill: RT Rob Havenstein retired; OT D.J. Humphries off roster)

Vacated targets: ~15 · Vacated carries: ~9 — effectively zero. Nowhere near the 120-target feeding band (methodology §6); this is a continuity offense, and every 2025 role projects to be re-contested only internally.

Arrivals (claim): QB Ty Simpson (R1 #13 — future claim, no 2026 target claim), TE Max Klare (R2 #61, Ohio State — real capital into an already 4-deep TE room; ESPN notes he's "unlikely to see regular playing time in 2026"), OT Keagen Trost (R3 #93), WR CJ Daniels (R6 #197, Miami — traded up 10 spots; competes for WR3), TE Tyler Higbee re-signed 2 yrs (ESPN FA tracker, Mar 2026).

Projected pecking order (2025 usage + Ourlads depth chart, fetched 2026-07-07):

RB committee split: Kyren Williams early-down lead + goal-line (259 car, 10 rush TD, 55.7% share) and passing downs (50 tgt vs Corum's 14); Blake Corum clear #2 with a real change-of-pace role that grew all 2025 (145 car / 746 yds / 6 TD, 31.2% share — nflverse). Jarquez Hunter (2025 R4, inactive/injured 2025 — nflverse rosters) and Ronnie Rivers are depth. Split projects ~55–60 / 30–35 / 10 (Kyren / Corum / other) — not contested at the top, but Corum's 2025 efficiency (5.1 ypc) is the watch item.

TE1/TE2 usage: a four-way room (Parkinson, Higbee, Ferguson, Davis Allen) + R2 rookie Klare, run at a 30% 13-personnel rate — huge aggregate TE snaps, but no single TE cleared 56 targets in 2025. Treat every LAR TE as a TD-dependent dart until one consolidates targets.

Game environment

• Vegas win total: 11.5 (DraftKings — opened 10.5 in Feb, moved to 11.5 post-Garrett trade; FanDuel 11.5, over −105/under −115 — Covers/CBS Sports, as-of early July 2026) → script lean: positive (tied with BAL for highest board number on DK)
• Projected plays/game: ~64.5 · Projected pass rate: ~58% of plays (dropbacks)
• Projected pass attempts/game: ~35 · rush attempts/game: ~27 (show inputs)
• Inputs: LAR 2025 = 65.0 plays/gm, 59.7% dropback rate, 26.2 rush att/gm, ~35.1 team pass att/gm (nflverse pbp_summary + passing.csv, pulled 2026-07-07); PROE +3 to +6 (nfelo/FantasyLife); win total 11.5 = positive-script trim of ~1 pt off pass rate; same caller/same QB1/same OL = carry 2025 forward. 64.5 × 0.58 ≈ 37.5 dropbacks − ~2.5 sacks/scrambles ≈ 35 att; 64.5 × 0.42 ≈ 27 rushes.

Defensive identity

Per methodology §8 — consumed by DST evals (dst.md §3) and /weekly-edge coverage-matchup reads (in-season.md §2).

• Runs the defense: Chris Shula (DC) — confirmed: "enters his 10th season with the Rams and his third as defensive coordinator" (therams.com 2026 coaching-staff announcement, fetched 2026-07-07)
• Tenure with team: 10th season with org, 3rd as DC/defensive play-caller · New DC: no — 2025 scheme stats remain valid (dc_new: false)
• Front/scheme family: hybrid odd-front base (OLB-designated edges — Byron Young LOLB, Josaiah Stewart OLB per nflverse rosters/Ourlads) with 4-down nickel sub-packages; 4-man-rush-reliant, zone-shell structure

• Key defensive arrivals/departures (edge and CB1 first):
• IN — edge Myles Garrett, reigning 2025 DPOY, via trade from CLE for Jared Verse + 2027 1st + 2028 2nd + 2029 3rd (ESPN/NFL.com/therams.com, 2026 offseason, fetched 2026-07-07). A premium-edge swap that upgrades an already-32%-pressure unit — dst.md §3's +2–4 pt pressure shift applies at the top end.
• OUT — edge Jared Verse (to CLE in the Garrett trade). Net edge room: Garrett + Byron Young + Josaiah Stewart (2025 R3).
• IN — CB1 Trent McDuffie, via trade from KC (2026 R1 #29 + R5 + R6 + 2027 3rd), signed 4-yr/$124M extension (ESPN FA tracker, 2026-03-12, fetched 2026-07-07); CB Jaylen Watson signed 3-yr/$51M ($34M gtd) (A to Z Sports, Mar 2026).
• OUT — CB Ahkello Witherspoon (→ WAS) and CB Cobie Durant (→ DAL, 1-yr/$5.5M) (NFL.com departures / Ramblin Fan, fetched 2026-07-07). CB room is effectively rebuilt around McDuffie/Watson/Forbes.
• Back end continuity: S Kam Curl re-signed 3-yr/$36M (ESPN, 2026-03-13); S Quentin Lake extended in-season 2025 (therams.com); S Kam Kinchens returns. LB Nate Landman returns (Ourlads); ST LB Grant Stuard added.
• Shadow-CB tendency: unknown for 2026 — Shula's 2025 shell was zone-leaning/sides-based with a CB rotation; McDuffie did not operate as a classic shadow in KC (outside/nickel versatile). No 2026 charting exists yet. UNVERIFIED beyond that.

Read: A 4-man-rush, zone-shell defense (73% zone, 20.8% blitz) that already generated top-tier pressure and 47 sacks with a young front — and then swapped Verse for the reigning DPOY and bought a true CB1 in McDuffie. This is the rare same-DC-year-3 + massive-talent-injection combo: high-floor DST profile, pressure-funnel candidate (≥26% trigger, in-season.md), soft spot is opposing zone-beater slots rather than man-beaters.

Stability & change log

• Stability: high — per methodology §10: same play-caller 10th year (McVay) + same QB1 (Stafford, re-signed) + 4 of 5 OL starters returning (and the 5th, McClendon, started much of 2025) + no open top-of-depth-chart battles. The OC title changed (LaFleur → Scheelhaase) but the play-caller did not, so no §9 protocol; Kingsbury's arrival is an input to McVay, not a new caller. dc_new: false — DST evals get full-confidence scheme stats.
• Watch items: (1) Stafford age-38 health — any missed camp time or back flare-up drops QB security and fires the contingency line (backup = rookie); (2) WR3 battle (Whittington/Mumpfield/Smith/Daniels) — irrelevant unless an Adams or Nacua injury elevates it; (3) TE target consolidation — camp reporting on Ferguson vs Parkinson ordering; (4) Corum's share creeping past ~35%; (5) McDuffie usage reporting (shadow vs sides) once preseason charting lands; (6) win-total moves ≥1.5; (7) any Adams trade/cut chatter in his contract year.