Don't Look at My Team

Tyler Warren — TE, IND — 2026

Verdict

TARGET (medium confidence) at ADP 55.0 (FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07 — TE4, round 5, behind McBride 27.6, Bowers 35.1, Loveland 44.8; ahead of Fannin 66.4, Kraft 71.8, LaPorta 71.9). Warren did the thing rookie TEs almost never do — 112 targets (21.1% team-leading TS), 88.7% route participation, TE3 in red-zone targets — and the market is pricing the *result* (11.1 PPG, TE11) instead of the *usage*. Why the market is wrong: the full-season line hides three quantifiable suppressors that all resolve upward in 2026: (1) TD luck — shape-adjusted xTD 6.3 (bucket method 7.8) vs 4 actual receiving TDs, worth ~2 PPG of invisible production; (2) a 4-game tier-C QB stretch (Philip Rivers/Riley Leonard, weeks 15–18) that dragged him from 12.4 PPG with Daniel Jones to 7.0 without — Jones is re-signed through 2027 at $88M; (3) Michael Pittman's 111 targets (plus Mitchell's 16) left with zero pass-catching capital added — Warren was already the No. 1 target with Pittman there. Scarcity placement (te.md §7): dead-zone price, pay-up-adjacent profile — the exact exception the dead-zone rule carves out (elite-usage path banked as a rookie; RP ≥80% ✓, TS ≥21% ✓, top-3 RZ role ✓; only the end-zone-target bar, 5, falls short of the full pay-up checklist). The offsetting risk that keeps this from MUST-HAVE: Jones's December Achilles — the floor scenario is proven, not hypothetical, and it's ugly.

Bull case

The usage is already elite and the roadblock left: 21.1% TS / 88.7% RP / TE3 RZ share *as a rookie sharing with a 111-target WR1* — and Pittman is gone with zero capital replacing him. Target share is the stickiest stat in the system, and his trajectory (92–96% RP late) points up, not sideways.
Two hidden PPG resolve upward: xTD 6.3–7.8 vs 4 actual (~+14–23 pts), and the 7.0-PPG Rivers/Leonard tail dragging a 12.4-PPG-with-Jones season down to 11.1. Reprice him on the with-Jones, luck-neutral baseline (~13.5 PPG) and he's a top-4 TE priced as the TE4 — with TE2-3 upside at less than half McBride's cost (55.0 vs 27.6).
Scheme fit compounds: highest-PA-rate band (28%), ~35% multi-TE shell, a play-caller publicly planning around him, designed-touch/wildcat layer, and 7.0 YAC/rec short-area profile that survives even mediocre QB play better than a seam-dependent TE would.

Bear case

Daniel Jones's Achilles is a proven, not theoretical, floor-breaker: Warren's efficiency without Jones was 57% CR at 4.2 Y/tgt — streamer output. A December-Achilles QB turning 29 with one good half-season on his resume is a fragile foundation, and 2025 Jones (0.344 EPA/play early) may itself be the outlier that regresses even if healthy.
The TD profile is volume-shallow: 5 end-zone targets (~TE13). His RZ role is flats and option routes at the 15, not fades at the 2 — that supports 6–8 TDs, never the 10–12 that make elite TE seasons. Combined with a 5.4 aDOT, he needs ~120+ receptions-adjacent volume to hit ceiling; any target-share stall leaves him at ~12 PPG, a +0.5 edge over streaming that wasted a round-5 pick (te.md §7 dead-zone trap, verbatim).
The market has already moved: TE4 at 55 prices in a chunk of the breakout — he's 11+ picks ahead of Fannin/Kraft/LaPorta, who posted comparable-or-better 2025 PPG (11.7/14.6/11.9 vs his 11.1). If the year-2 leap is ordinary rather than special, pick 55 bought last year's TE8–11 at a TE4 tag while a starting RB/WR lived there.

Projection & comps

Bottom-up from data/team-profiles/IND.md (2026-07-07): ~61 plays/g × ~57% dropback ≈ 34.8 dropbacks/g (~590–610 routes available at his RP), ~32 att/g (~544 attempts). Warren's own durability is clean (17/17 as a rookie, no injury history, age 24) — the floor is a QB scenario, not a health scenario.

Scenario	Games	Routes (RP)	TPRR	Targets	Rec (CR)	Yards (Y/tgt)	rec TD	Rush	PPR pts	PPG
Floor (p20)	17	~520 (87%)	0.21	110	74 (67%)	760 (6.9)	4	~10 yds, 1 TD	~180	10.6
Median (p50)	17	~545 (90%)	0.225	123	86 (70%)	935 (7.6)	6	~15 yds, 0–1 TD	~220	12.9
Ceiling (p80)	17	~560 (92%)	0.24	135	95 (70%)	1,030 (7.6)	8	~20 yds, 1 TD	~255	15.0

Targets converge two ways: routes × TPRR (545 × 0.225 ≈ 123) and TS × attempts (22.5% × 544 ≈ 122). Median assumes TS climbs 21.1% → ~22.5% on 127 vacated targets; ceiling (25%) only requires he absorb ~a third of Pittman's share — plausible with no arrivals and Downs' durability history (3 injuries in 2025) plus Pierce's boundary-only, post-ankle-surgery profile.
TDs anchored to xTD, not actuals (scoring-framework §4): 23 RZ targets (TE3, 25.3% of IND RZ attempts) and 13 inside-10 targets support 6–7 xTD; 2025's 4 receiving TDs was the unlucky tail (shape-adjusted xTD 6.29, computed from 2025 pbp league TD rates by yardline × end-zone-throw buckets). Only 5 end-zone targets caps the ceiling at 8, not 10+.
Floor scenario = Jones misses ~6 games (Achilles regression) and the 2025 backup split (57% CR, 4.2 Y/tgt) partially repeats — note this is roughly a rerun of his actual rookie season (188.5), because his rookie season *already contained* that scenario.
Efficiency evidence for the with-Jones rates: weeks 1–14 (Jones): 71.4% CR, 8.3 Y/tgt, YPRR ~1.75 on 399 routes. Weeks 15–18 (Rivers/Leonard): 57.1% CR, 4.2 Y/tgt, YPRR 0.98 (weekly.csv + participation.csv splits, computed 2026-07-07).
Games risk: low for Warren himself; the QB dependency is expressed in the floor. No current injury (Sleeper, 2026-07-07).
No external projections to sanity-check — data/projections/ does not exist.

Comps (year-2/high-usage low-aDOT TE hubs, PPR):

Sam LaPorta 2023 DET: 120 tgt, 86-889-10, 245.5 — the ceiling shape (usage + TD conversion)
Evan Engram 2023 JAX: 143 tgt, 114-963-4, ~235 — volume hub, low aDOT, TD-poor (ceiling on catches, median on points)
David Njoku 2023 CLE: 123 tgt, 81-882-6, ~206 — elite usage, uneven QB play — the median analog
Brock Bowers 2025 LV (year 2): 14.7 PPG in 12 games — PPG ceiling analog for a year-2 leap
Kyle Pitts 2022 ATL (year 2): 28-356-2 — the sub-floor cautionary: elite rookie usage + QB collapse; kept out of the p20 floor only because Jones's contract and Steichen's system are nothing like 2022 ATL

Usage profile (te.md §2 table — 2025 rookie season; no 2024 NFL data, pedigree in §3b)

Metric	2025	Band	Read
Route participation (RP)	88.7% (520/586 charted IND dropbacks on-field; participation.csv, 2026-07-07)	Elite (≥80%)	Gate passed. Never below 80% in any week; weeks 12–16 ran 92–96% — a rising late-season split in a persisting role (green flag, te.md §10)
TPRR	0.215 (112/520)	Good, at the elite doorstep	Denominator includes any pass-block snaps, so true TPRR is slightly higher; elite for a rookie TE
YPRR	1.57 full season; ~1.75 with Jones (wks 1–14) / 0.98 after	Good → Elite with Jones	The split is the signal — efficiency tracked the QB, not the role
Target share	21.1% (112/530, led team)	Elite (≥21%)	The stickiest signal; achieved as a rookie with Pittman (20.9%) on the roster
RZ target share	25.3% (23/91 IND RZ pass att; TE3 in RZ targets behind McBride 34, Ferguson 25)	Elite (≥25%)	Computed from 2025 pbp (nflreadpy, 2026-07-07); 13 inside-10 targets
End-zone targets	5 (≈TE13; McBride 18, Bowers 13, J.Ferguson 11, Andrews 10)	Below top-12	The one gap in the profile: his RZ role is catch-and-run volume, not jump balls — supports 6–8 TDs, not 10+
Detached rate	~42.7% (384 slot/wide receiver snaps of 899; plus 466 inline = 51.8%, 64 backfield, 3 wildcat — PFF via colts.com rookie review, fetched 2026-07-07)	Good (30–45%), just under elite	Big-slot/move hybrid; the backfield/wildcat usage is Steichen's designed-touch layer
Pass-block / run-block snap rates	UNVERIFIED (no provider export)	—	Bounded: 88.7% of dropbacks on-field at 0.215 TPRR is not a protector's profile; PFF blocking grade 72.7 (5th of 20 TEs with 100+ blocking snaps) says the blocking is good enough to never leave the field
MOF vs boundary mix	UNVERIFIED by the methodology's standard (Fantasy Points target-location export absent). Pbp proxy: 19.6% "middle" (22/112), L 49 / R 41	—	Pbp "middle" is a between-the-hashes definition, far narrower than "between the numbers" — do not read as boundary-skewed; aDOT 5.4 (602 air yds/112) with +0.62 YAC over expected (ngs_receiving) is a short-area, YAC-driven habitat
xFP	Provider xFP UNVERIFIED. Usage-based expectation: 188.5 actual + ~14 pts of xTD deficit ≈ 202 (~11.9 PPG, ~TE6 expected); PlayerProfiler: 11.1 PPG actual (#9), VOS +0.8	TE4–6 expected range	Actuals understated the usage all season

Archetype (§8): big slot / move-TE hybrid — detached 42.7% + H-back/wildcat layer, with elite RP. Not a blocking Y (blocking is a floor-keeper, not his job description). Year-2 note (§9): the year-3 breakout screen doesn't apply — he skipped the queue; rookie-TE fade rule is moot (it fired correctly *last* year and he beat it: most rookie-TE receptions/yards in Colts history, 4 TE-rookie-history-tier counting stats per PFF). Age 24 (DOB 2002-05-24, Sleeper 2026-07-07), 6'6"/256. Athletic testing: largely UNVERIFIED (limited combine testing); pedigree carries the prior instead.

§3b pedigree (methodology/prospect-pedigree.md inputs): 2025 R1 pick 14 — first Colts first-round TE since Dallas Clark 2003 (colts.com, 4/2025). College: 2024 Mackey winner, 104-1,233-8 receiving + 4 rush TD + 1 pass TD at Penn State — one of four 104+ reception TE seasons in FBS history (colts.com/statecollege.com). Fifth-year senior, so not an early declare; elite college dominance and R1 capital carry the profile.

Context (data/team-profiles/IND.md, built 2026-07-07)

Continuity where it matters: Steichen (play-caller, year 4) and Jones (re-signed 2yr/$88M, $60M+ fully gtd) both return; stability medium. Steichen's 2025 shell was TE-heavy — 12+13 personnel ~35% of snaps — and slightly pass-lean with Jones healthy (+3.1% PROE in his full games).
QB: Jones tore his right Achilles Week 14 2025; throwing by ~4 months post-op, team expects "100 percent by Week 1" (colts.com, 4–6/2026). Backups Richardson/Leonard are tier C — the 2025 evidence (Warren 7.0 PPG in the Rivers/Leonard weeks) is the floor case in miniature. QB games-risk: medium → widen Warren's range downward (done in the floor).
Target hierarchy: Warren is #1 in the profile's pecking order. Vacated: 127 confirmed targets (Pittman 111 → PIT 3/2026; Mitchell 16) with only depth-tier arrivals (NWI, R7 Burks) — the ≥120-vacated green flag fires for him first. Competition: Downs (slot, injury-marred 2025), Pierce (boundary/deep, $28.5M AAV but an 84-target volume profile, late-March ankle surgery may cost camp time), Taylor (14.5% RB share).
The TE2 tax is minimal: Alie-Cox ran 30.9% of dropbacks (181) for 20 targets, Ogletree 16.0% for 6 — blocking-first 12-personnel pieces, both re-signed cheap; no TE drafted. High 12/13 rate + Warren running 88.7% of routes anyway = extra TEs displace WR3s, not Warren (mirrors the McBride/ARI dynamic).
Play-caller intent, 2026: Steichen says finding creative ways to get Warren involved is an offensive focus with Pittman gone (SI/colts.com, 5–6/2026); beat reports from OTAs/minicamp had every QB "looking Warren's way early and often" (horseshoeheroes/SI, 6/2026) — camp-hype tier evidence (hierarchy #5), but it points the same direction as the usage.
Environment caps: win total 7.5 (DK, 7/2026, drifted down from ~8.5) — neutral-bottom script, mid pace (19th in plays/g). ~544 att means a 23% TS is needed for 125 targets; volume is share-driven, not attempt-driven. PA rate 28% of dropbacks (top-10 range) is a genuine TE boost (te.md §5); OL good (RBWR 7th, 4.5% sack rate) with a new RT the only question.

Tripwires (re-run this eval if any fire)

Jones Achilles setback — PUP to start camp, missed preseason reps, or any "not 100%" beat reporting → floor scenario activates; verdict drops to HOLD at best at this price.
IND adds a meaningful pass-catcher (veteran slot WR trade/signing with starter money) — slot arrivals hit the TE first (te.md §6); recompute the target math.
ADP moves inside ~44 (ahead of Loveland / into round 4) → the discount is gone, verdict → HOLD; falls past ~65 → upgrade toward strong TARGET/MUST-HAVE consideration.
Camp reports the 12-personnel routes shifting — Alie-Cox/Ogletree running routes with the 1s, or Warren's pass-block rate visibly up in preseason → role-shape demotion signal (te.md §3).
Win total drops ≥1.5 (to ≤6) or Taylor holds out into September — offense-quality multiplier reprices downward.

Board note: no evaluations/boards/2026/ directory exists yet — nothing to mark stale.

Sources

data/stats/2025/receiving.csv, weekly.csv, snap_counts.csv, participation.csv, ngs_receiving.csv, rushing.csv, passing.csv, pbp_summary.csv — nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07 (2025 REG). RP/TPRR/TE2 routes/weekly splits computed from participation.csv + weekly.csv, 2026-07-07
2025 play-by-play via nflreadpy load_pbp (computed 2026-07-07): RZ targets 23 (TE3), end-zone targets 5, inside-10 targets 13, IND RZ pass att 91, xTD 7.79 (yardline buckets) / 6.29 (shape-adjusted), pass-location proxy, weeks 15–18 passers (Rivers 20 tgt, Leonard 8)
data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv — FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07 (Warren 55.0 TE4; full TE ladder)
data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json — age 24, DOB 2002-05-24, Penn State, years_exp 1, 6'6"/256, no injury status, depth chart TE1
data/team-profiles/IND.md — built 2026-07-07 (Steichen/Cooter, Jones contract + Achilles, vacated-target math, hierarchy, PA/personnel rates, win total 7.5, OL, TE2s)
colts.com "2025 Colts Rookie Review: Tyler Warren" (fetched via search 2026-07-07) — 899/1,075 snaps, 466 inline (51.8%), 384 slot/wide, 64 backfield, 3 wildcat (PFF charting), Alie-Cox 421 snaps
PFF player page + "rewriting rookie history" article (via search 2026-07-07) — 67.6 overall / 72.0 receiving grade (16/37), 72.7 blocking grade (5th of 20, 100+ block snaps), aDOT 5.9 (PFF charting; nflverse computes 5.4), 5 drops, PFF-charted 106 targets (nflverse: 112 — charting-rule difference)
PlayerProfiler Tyler Warren page (fetched 2026-07-07) — 11.1 PPG (#9), VOS +0.8; advanced 2025 fields not populated
colts.com / SI Colts / horseshoeheroes (5–6/2026, via search 2026-07-07) — Steichen on featuring Warren post-Pittman, OTA/minicamp target-hog reports, year-2 growth quotes
colts.com / statecollege.com (4/2025) — drafted R1 #14; Penn State 2024: 104-1,233-8 + 4 rush TD, Mackey Award; career 153-1,839-19
UNVERIFIED (no source found): pass-block/run-block snap *rates*, methodology-standard MOF-vs-boundary mix, man/zone TPRR splits, provider xFP, athletic testing (RAS)