Indianapolis Colts

IND — team profile

Built per methodology/team-context.md. Every number needs a source + as-of date or the UNVERIFIED mark. Position evals cite this file; they do not re-research it.

Play-caller

• Calls plays: Shane Steichen (HC) — confirmed. Steichen has called IND's plays since his 2023 hire and continues in 2026; OC Jim Bob Cooter does not call plays — he interviewed for the PHI OC job in part because Steichen was open to letting him pursue a play-calling opportunity, and he returned to IND without one (NBC Sports Philadelphia / heavy.com 1–2/2026; colts.com 2026 coaching-staff announcement; Steichen + Ballard returning confirmed by colts.com "2025 season recap / 2026 outlook").
• Tenure with team: HC/play-caller since 2023 (4th season) · Prior relationship with QB1: Year 2 with Daniel Jones — Jones's 2025 resurgence (0.344 EPA/play through 8 games) came in Steichen's system.

Last 3 play-calling stops (Steichen has called IND's plays all three seasons; three most recent seasons shown — PHI 2021–22 OC stops predate):

Row sources: 2025 PROE +1.70% (12th) and 56% pass rate (T-19th) per statrankings/NBC Sports 2026 IND fantasy preview (fetched 2026-07-07); +3.1% PROE in Jones games, 55.6% neutral pass rate, 56.1% pass rate in Jones's games vs 54.1% other QBs per DraftSharks IND team preview (fetched 2026-07-07); motion/PA/personnel computed from data/stats/2025/participation.csv + ftn_charting.csv (nflverse, pulled 2026-07-07); RB target share 77/530 and WR1 TS from receiving.csv; plays/gm 59.9 (19th) and 37.9 dropbacks/gm (19th) per NBC preview (pbp_summary.csv shows 62.35 pass+rush plays/gm on its definition).

Read: Steichen is a slightly pass-lean, QB-friendly caller whose 2025 tilt (+3.1% PROE with Jones healthy) was the most aggressive of his IND tenure — but the identity is balance built on the league's best rush EPA (+0.05/play, 1st) and a TE-heavy shell: 12+13 personnel on ~35% of snaps, which feeds Tyler Warren and gates WR3 snaps hard. RB target share is modest (14.5%) but Taylor's 55 targets came with elite efficiency; there is no fed WR alpha — the No. 1 target in 2025 was the rookie TE, and Pittman's departure pushes the tree further toward Warren/Downs. Pace is middling (19th in plays/gm), so volume upside is script-dependent, not tempo-driven.

QB situation

• QB1: Daniel Jones — re-signed 2-yr/$88M ($50M year 1, $60M+ fully guaranteed, up to $100M w/ incentives; through 2027) after IND had transition-tag leverage (NFL.com / ESPN, ~2/2026). Benching risk: low (money says none; a mid-season Achilles regression is the only realistic path). HEALTH FLAG: tore right Achilles Week 14 of 2025 (Dec); already dropping back/throwing by ~4 months post-op; he and the team expect "100 percent" by Week 1 (colts.com, ~4–6/2026). 2025: 261/384, 3,101 yds, 19 TD / 8 INT, 22 sacks in 13 games (passing.csv).
• Backup: Anthony Richardson Sr. vs Riley Leonard — open QB2 battle, tier C. Richardson: 2023 #4 overall, but 5th-year option declined (UFA after 2026), standing trade request that produced no deal through the draft (ESPN / NFL.com 4–5/2026); career-long accuracy/availability problems. Leonard: 2025 R6 (#189, Notre Dame — colts.com 4/2025); 39/67, 415 yds, 2 TD/3 INT in 5 games of 2025 relief.
• Contingency line: If Jones misses time: Richardson or Leonard, tier C — pass rate drops toward the 54.1% the non-Jones 2025 offense ran, efficiency craters (Taylor's yards before contact fell 1.5 → 1.1 and his PPG fell ~24 → 13.3 without Jones — NBC preview), aDOT compresses or turns scattershot, and every pass-catcher's floor drops a tier; the offense becomes Taylor-plus-QB-run in positive scripts. Jones's Achilles makes QB games-risk medium — widen pass-catcher ranges downward per methodology §3.

O-line

• Projected starters LT–RT: LT Bernhard Raimann (long-term extension, "top-10 LT" per SI/horseshoeheroes 2026), LG Quenton Nelson (All-Pro; contract year — ESPN 6/2026), C Tanor Bortolini, RG Matt Goncalves (2nd year at RG, 16 starts in 2025), RT Jalen Travis (2025 R4 — first year as full-time starter; started the final 4 games of 2025 when Smith was out and played well — profootballrumors 2026-04; horseshoeheroes). Depth: R4 #113 G Jalen Farmer (Kentucky) projected sixth man (SI 6/2026); Luke Tenuta (listed RT on ESPN's auto depth chart, but beat reporting points to Travis).
• Interior vs edge: Interior is the strength — Nelson/Bortolini/Goncalves all return on a unit that was 7th in RBWR and allowed a 4.5% sack rate; the question is the right edge, where Travis replaces a long-time starter. Edge issues compress (chips, quick game) rather than kill the deep ball — relevant to Pierce's 20+ aDOT role if Travis struggles. No rookie interior starters, so no §4 early-pressure-spike flag.

Scheme family

• Run scheme: Zone-lean with gap/duo mixed, heavy 12/13-personnel run looks — Steichen's system produced the NFL's best rush EPA (+0.05/play, 1st in 2025 — NBC preview) and a league-leading 73.1% carry share for Taylor. RB fits: every-down backs with vision and burst; Taylor is the scheme.
• Pass-game family: Steichen QB-friendly spread/west-coast hybrid with vertical shot element and RPO seasoning (7.2% RPO, 28% PA of dropbacks, 42.6% motion — ftn_charting.csv/participation.csv 2026-07-07). Implications: heavy 12/13 usage (~35%) makes the slot (Downs) and TE (Warren) the volume roles, keeps WR3 fantasy-dead, and reserves the boundary for low-volume/high-aDOT iso shots (Pierce, 20+ aDOT). Middle-of-field YAC lives with Warren (7.0 YAC/rec on throws under 10 yds — NBC preview).

Target/touch hierarchy & vacated math

Departed (2025 targets / carries, from receiving.csv/rushing.csv):

• Michael Pittman Jr., WR — 111 targets / 0 carries → traded to PIT (3/2026) for a 2026 6th (#214) with a 2026 7th (#230) going back; PIT gave him 3-yr/$59M (colts.com / NFL.com 3/2026)
• Adonai Mitchell, WR — 16 targets (in 8 IND games) → traded to NYJ in the Sauce Gardner deal (11/2025)
• Ameer Abdullah, RB — 17 targets / 14 carries → not on 2026 depth chart; departure/status UNVERIFIED as of 2026-07-07
• Tyler Goodson, RB — 3 targets / 9 carries → not on 2026 depth chart; status UNVERIFIED

Vacated targets: 127 confirmed (Pittman 111 + Mitchell 16), ~147 if Abdullah/Goodson gone · Vacated carries: ~23 (Abdullah 14 + Goodson 9)

Arrivals (claim): WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (FA, ex-MIA — terms UNVERIFIED; depth-tier), WR Deion Burks (2026 R7 #254), RB Seth McGowan (2026 R7 #249), TE Carson Towt (UDFA-tier convert). No meaningful pass-catching capital added → 127+ vacated targets clears the ≥120 feeding-opportunity green flag (wr.md §10) for the incumbents: Warren, Downs, Pierce, Taylor.

Projected pecking order:

RB committee split: Taylor is a true bell-cow — early-down, passing-down, and goal-line (73.1% carry share, led NFL with 323-1,585-18; 18 of the team's rush TDs). RB2 is an open camp battle: DJ Giddens (2025 R5; 26 carries, no established role) vs rookie Seth McGowan (R7) — winner gets breather work only while Taylor is healthy (NBC preview 2026).

Game environment

• Vegas win total: 7.5 (DraftKings, over/under both near even) as of 2026-07-07 search (theplayoffs.news / legalsportsreport); market drifted down from ~8.5 after the offseason → script lean: neutral, bottom edge (7.5–9 band, methodology §7) — IND went 8-9 in 2025 after an 8-2 start
• Projected plays/game: ~61 (2025: 59.9/gm, 19th — NBC; 62.35 pass+rush plays/gm on pbp_summary.csv definition; DraftSharks projects 60.9; middling pace, no tempo bump)
• Projected pass rate: ~56–57% of plays (dropback basis ~57%) (2025: 56.1% in Jones's games, +1.7 to +3.1% PROE; healthy Jones sustains the lean, neutral-negative script adds a hair, an early-season "run lean" while Jones's Achilles ramps subtracts it — DraftSharks)
• Projected pass attempts/game: ~32 · rush attempts/game: ~26. Inputs: 61 plays × 57% ≈ 34.8 dropbacks − ~2.8 sacks/throwaways/scrambles ≈ 32 att (2025 actual: 32.2 att/gm on 547 team attempts, 4.5% sack rate); 61 × 43% ≈ 26.2 designed runs ≈ 26 att incl. scrambles (2025 actual: 26.0 rush att/gm on 442 carries).

Defensive identity

Per methodology §8 — consumed by DST evals (dst.md §3) and /weekly-edge coverage-matchup reads (in-season.md §2).

• Runs the defense: Lou Anarumo (DC) — confirmed returning for 2026 (colts.com 2026 coaching-staff announcement; heavy.com "both coordinators return," 2/2026). Presumed defensive play-caller (standard Anarumo role, as in CIN 2019–24 and IND 2025; no reporting suggests otherwise as of 2026-07-07).
• Tenure with team: Year 2 (hired 2025) · New DC: no (dc_new: false) — 2025 IND scheme stats are live priors, though defensive personnel turned over meaningfully (below), so the same-DC continuity green flag (dst.md §3) is only half-met.
• Front/scheme family: 4-down base, hybrid/multiple — Anarumo's signature is week-to-week disguise and coverage multiplicity; 2026 staff added his former CIN DL coach Marion Hobby (colts.com 2/2026).

2025 IND rates under Anarumo (live priors for 2026):

• Key defensive arrivals/departures (edge/CB1 first):
• CB1: Sauce Gardner — acquired 11/2025 from NYJ for two 1sts (2026+2027) + WR Adonai Mitchell; first full IND season in 2026. Paired with Charvarius Ward outside and Kenny Moore II at nickel; beat reporting says the plan is heavy press-man with the two of them (SI/colts.com 5–6/2026)
• OUT: Kwity Paye, EDGE → LV 3-yr/$48M; Samson Ebukam, EDGE → ATL; S Nick Cross → WAS 2-yr/$14M; LB Zaire Franklin → traded to GB (for DT Colby Wooden); LB Germaine Pratt (FA); DT Neville Gallimore → CHI (ESPN FA tracker + SI, 3/2026)
• IN: EDGE Arden Key 2-yr/$20M; EDGE Micheal Clemons 3-yr/$17M; DT Derrick Nnadi; DT Jerry Tillery; CB Cam Taylor-Britt 1-yr (Anarumo reunion, CB depth); LB Akeem Davis-Gaither; S Jonathan Owens, S Juanyeh Thomas (ESPN FA tracker 3/2026). Draft (defense-first class): R2 #47 LB CJ Allen, R3 #78 S A.J. Haulcy (projected starting SS — ESPN depth chart 7/2026), R4 #113 LB Bryce Boettcher, R5 #156 EDGE George Gumbs Jr., R6 #214 EDGE Caden Curry (colts.com draft recap 4/2026)
• Edge room 2026: Laiatu Latu + JT Tuimoloau (0 sacks as a 2025 R2 rookie; team expects a year-2 step — SI) + Key + Clemons — net capital downgrade from Paye/Ebukam; pressure sustainability is the open question (dst.md §3: premium edge departures shift pressure 2–4 pts)
• Shadow-CB tendency: Gardner travels situationally — colts.com (5/2026) explicitly cites his "ability to travel with an opponent's top wideout" as flexibility Anarumo uses in weekly plans; not a locked every-week shadow. Treat weekly shadow calls as news.

Read: A man-heavy (37.4%), mid-high-blitz, disguise-driven Anarumo defense built from the back end forward — Gardner/Ward press-man is the identity, and it upgrades vs teams without separators while man-beater WRs are the counter. The pressure profile (29.6% charted) leaned on a now-departed edge duo; until Latu/Tuimoloau/Key prove it, project the coverage to be ahead of the rush, with off-ball LB (two rookies high in the rotation) the soft spot.

Stability & change log

• Stability: medium — per methodology §10: the core is stable (same play-caller 4th year, same QB1 re-signed through 2027, 4/5 OL returning), but Jones is rehabbing a December Achilles, the volume WR1 (Pittman, 111 targets) was traded with no capital replacing him, Pierce may miss camp time post-ankle-surgery, and QB2/RB2/WR3 are open battles — one major change (skill-position departure reshaping the tree) plus real health noise keeps this off high.
• Watch items: (1) Jones's camp ramp — any Achilles setback flips QB games-risk to high and tier-C backup math takes over; (2) Pierce camp/PUP status; (3) Taylor extension talks — contract-year noise on the offense's engine; (4) Richardson trade request — a trade changes nothing on the field but sets QB2; (5) RB2 battle (Giddens vs McGowan) and WR3 battle (NWI vs Dulin vs Burks); (6) win total move ≥1.5 (currently 7.5); (7) Travis at RT vs live edge rushers — first pressure data in preseason.