Don't Look at My Team

Quentin Johnston — WR, LAC — 2026

Verdict

TARGET at ADP 100.0 (FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07 — WR47, late 8th round in 12-team), medium confidence. The market's case for the price is fair: three seasons without a top-30 finish, back-to-back 8-TD years that scream regression (usage-based xTD was 5.1 and 5.5 — own pbp calc), a concern-band 0.172 TPRR in 2025, and a boundary-volatile weekly profile inside an unproven year-1 McDaniel install. Why the market is wrong: it is pricing the TD regression as if the volume stays at 84 targets — but Keenan Allen's team-high 122 targets are vacated (159 team-wide, no outside-WR capital added; Allen still unsigned as of 2026-07-07), and Johnston's own no-Allen baseline is already on file: 18.5% TS and 0.228 TPRR in 2024, the last time Allen wasn't on the roster. Reverting toward that earning rate on ~605 Herbert dropbacks replaces the TD luck with real targets, holding the median at roughly his 2025 output — which itself out-scored the WR47 price — while the new play-caller is publicly casting him in the Julio Jones/Andre Johnson power-X role and the front office just exercised his ~$18M fifth-year option. At pick 100 the 100+ target ceiling comes attached for free.

Bull case

The cleanest vacated-volume bet in his ADP range: 122 Allen targets gone, zero outside-WR capital added, and Johnston's no-Allen 2024 baseline (18.5% TS, 0.228 TPRR) already demonstrates what he earns without a slot alpha in the building — ~95–110 targets from Justin Herbert is a reversion case, not a projection leap (methodology §10 green flag: vacated ≥120, no capital).
The 2025 inefficiency was upstream of him: 64.3% catchable-target rate behind a 32nd-ranked pass-blocking line with a broken-handed QB — and he still dropped only 3 catchable balls while posting positive YAC over expected for the second straight year. A rebuilt OL, a healthy Herbert, and a YAC-manufacturing play-caller who publicly comps him to Julio Jones fix the catch rate without Johnston changing anything.
You're paying WR47 for a guy who just out-scored the price twice: 174.7 and 171.2 PPR in consecutive seasons (12+ PPG), age 24, R1 pedigree, fifth-year option exercised, locked starting X with coach and QB hype on record — even TD regression fully realized plus the target bump lands him right back at ~175, above the pick-100 waterline, with a 220 ceiling free.

Bear case

The 2×2 sell signal is live: RP 87% with TPRR 0.172 = fully deployed and not earning — the methodology's textbook "capped" read. His target share *fell* 18.5% → 15.4% year over year, WOPR is 0.39, and betting on a TPRR rebound leans on a one-year-old sample in a different offense under a different caller.
Two straight years of TD luck is exactly what the price remembers: 8 TDs vs xTD of 5.1 and 5.5 (~17 PPR points of annual inflation), only 8 end-zone targets (35th league-wide) with McConkey (12) the preferred scorer — usage-adjusted he was a ~11 PPG WR3/4, and McDaniel's run-lean, RB/TE-heavy target tree (37% 11-personnel, 22.3% RB target share in MIA 2025) can flatten boundary volume in a year-1 install.
Fragile weekly floor with two live role threats: 82–88% boundary targets, separation down to 2.36 (NGS), weekly TS spanning 0%–30% — and either a Keenan Allen re-signing (door explicitly "not closed") or a year-2 Tre Harris leap directly cannibalizes his targets. Add the soft-tissue pattern (hamstring/shin/groin flags in 2025; 14 and 15 games the last two years) and the p20 outcome is a droppable WR5.

Projection & comps

Bottom-up (inputs from data/team-profiles/LAC.md, 2026-07-07: ~62.5 plays/g, ~35.6 dropbacks/g → ~605 team dropbacks over 17 g; Johnston RP proxy 87% in 2025):

Scenario	Games	Routes	Targets	Rec	Yards	TD	PPR
Floor (p20)	13	~390	68	41	560	4	120
Median (p50)	16	~495	94	58	800	6	175
Ceiling (p80)	17	~535	112	71	1,000	8	220

Targets = routes × TPRR 0.175–0.21 (median 0.19 — between his 0.228 no-Allen 2024 and 0.172 with-Allen 2025). Catch rate 60→62–63% (2025's 64.3% catchable-target rate — FTN — was QB/OL-driven and should rebound; see §3). Yards/target 8.2–8.9 (8.75 in 2025, 7.8 in 2024). TDs anchored to xTD (5.1 on 2025 usage, 5.5 on 2024 — computed from nflverse pbp, 2026-07-07) plus a modest volume bump — not to the back-to-back 8s.
Games-played risk: medium — 14 games in 2025 (hamstring W6, groin W15 — injuries.csv; W18 absence UNVERIFIED reason), 15 in 2024. Recurring soft-tissue pattern (hamstring/shin/groin all flagged in 2025). Age 24, turns 25 Sept 2026 (Sleeper cache 2026-07-07).
Sanity check vs external: no data/projections/ directory exists. Fantasy Football Calculator's 2026 outlook (retrieved 2026-07-07) projects a "larger role, triple-digit target" path with Allen gone and consensus WR49 rank — consistent with the median-to-ceiling band here. CBS/RotoWire coverage calls him "worth drafting as a sleeper as early as Round 8" (retrieved 2026-07-07).

Comp seasons (boundary #2 X with mid-tier target share, TD-flavored, good QB): Courtland Sutton 2023 DEN (59-772-10, ~191 PPR), Gabe Davis 2022 BUF (48-836-7, ~174), Darnell Mooney 2024 ATL (64-992-5, ~193), George Pickens 2024 PIT (59-900-3, ~167), ceiling comp Mike Williams 2021 LAC (76-1,146-9, ~245 — the Herbert-boundary-X breakout mode).

Usage profile

All 2025/2024 rows from data/stats/<season>/ (nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07, REG only) unless noted. Routes are an on-field-for-pass-plays proxy from participation.csv (charted plays). 2025 = 14 games on field (snap_counts; 13 with a target); 2024 = 15 games.

Metric	2025 (14 g)	2024 (15 g)	Band	Read
Target share	15.4% (84 tgt)	18.5% (91 tgt)	Concern	The dip is Allen's 2025 return (122 tgt); 2024 is the no-Allen baseline and Allen is gone again
TPRR	0.172 (84/487 routes-proxy)	0.228 (91/400)	Concern (2025)	2025 has an excuse: Allen ran the underneath tree, pushing QJ deeper (intended aDOT 11.0→12.3, NGS) on 64% catchable throws
Route participation	87.1% proxy	79.1% proxy	Good	Rising — entrenched full-time X; 2024's RP<80 + TPRR≥0.22 expansion signal half-delivered (RP came, TPRR didn't)
Air-yards share	22.4%	23.4%	Below good	Real but not dominant downfield claim; McConkey + Gadsden split the air yards
WOPR	0.389	0.442	Concern	Needs the TS bump to clear 0.45; no path to 0.60 with McConkey the clear No. 1
RZ target share	16.1% (15/93; 7 inside-10)	16.7% (12/72)	Moderate	Consistent secondary RZ role, two years running
End-zone targets	8 (rank 35th league-wide, nflverse pbp)	10	~Top-24 fringe	McConkey drew 12 EZ targets (11th) — QJ is not the EZ alpha
xFP	~11.0/g usage-adjusted (171.2 actual − 17.5 pts of TD-over-xTD ≈ 154 in 14 g; provider xFP UNVERIFIED)	similar (−15 pts TD inflation)	WR3/4 range	Actual points overstate usage two straight years — the core regression fact

Target quality / route tree (2025, nflverse pbp): aDOT 11.8 (NGS intended 12.3) — intermediate sweet spot, deep-leaning. Depth mix: 11 behind LOS (13%) / 37 short (44%) / 17 intermediate (20%) / 19 deep (23%) — earns at all four depths; not a one-route go/post profile. 7 screen targets + 14 play-action targets (FTN) show designed-touch and PA usage that maps to McDaniel's tree. Field-zone flag: pass-location proxy = 82% boundary (37 L / 32 R / 15 M) in 2025, 88% in 2024 — a boundary-only profile per methodology §3; floor discounted accordingly (weekly TS ranged 0%–30.2% in 2025). 20 third-down targets (30 in 2024) — real trust-chain presence. First downs/route 0.055 (2025, concern) vs 0.080 (2024).

Hands & QB-driven vs WR-driven (FTN, 2025): only 54 of 84 targets (64.3%) were catchable — Herbert took 54 sacks behind the NFL's 32nd-ranked PBWR line and played from December on a surgically repaired left hand (team profile). Johnston caught 51 of those 54 catchable balls with just 3 drops (5.6% of catchable — good band; 4 drops in 2024). The 2023 drops narrative is dead on two years of charting; the low catch rate (60.7% NGS) is throw-quality, not hands — and the OL was rebuilt. Contested: 6/10 in 2025 but 8/22 (36%) in 2024 — combined 44%, below-average; he is *not* contested-dependent by usage, which is fine because he doesn't win those anyway.

Efficiency: YPRR 1.51 (2025) / 1.78 (2024) — concern-to-mid band. NGS separation collapsed 3.17 → 2.36 as his aDOT rose. YAC over expected positive both years (+0.75 in 2025, +1.16 in 2024, NGS) — the one genuinely above-average skill signal, and the one McDaniel's scheme is built to monetize ("nearly half his TCU receiving yards came after the catch" — FFC outlook; Johnston himself: expects to be "set up for the yards after catch," chargers.com minicamp, June 2026).

Coverage splits (participation charting + pbp, own calc): 2025 — TPRR 0.198 / YPRR 1.65 vs man (36 tgt, 182 routes), 0.158 / 1.43 vs zone (48 tgt, 304 routes). 2024 — TPRR 0.272 / YPRR 1.26 vs man, 0.187 / 2.25 vs zone. He earns vs man at an X-receiver clip both years; efficiency splits flip year to year (small samples). Profile survives both coverage worlds at a mediocre-but-viable level; no man-crutch or zone-crutch fragility. Slot/wide%: exact slot rate UNVERIFIED — all sources and the location mix consistently place him outside at X (PFF via search, 2026-07-07; a PFF note floats a possible X↔Z swap with Tre Harris, which changes little for volume).

Context (from data/team-profiles/LAC.md, 2026-07-07)

Stability: low — new play-caller (Mike McDaniel, year 1, confirmed caller) and an all-new interior OL. Year-1 install drag applies; Roman-era roles are void.
Vacated targets: ~159 (~29% of 544) — Keenan Allen 122 (team-high), Dissly/Conklin/backs the rest. No outside-WR capital added (only R4 speed flier Brenen Thompson). Allen unsigned as of 2026-07-07 (Hortiz: "door is not closed" but "letting young guys get a chance"); Saints/Texans floated as suitors (heavy.com/SI, early July 2026) — this is the single biggest live variable.
Hierarchy: McConkey clear No. 1 (slot/crosser archetype the scheme feeds), Johnston locked X No. 2, then Gadsden/Hampton/Njoku/Harris. Depth chart order confirmed across CBS/RotoWire/ESPN boards (retrieved 2026-07-07) and Sleeper cache (LWR, order 2).
Scheme fit: McDaniel = ~70% motion, heavy PA (28.3% in MIA 2025), crossers, YAC manufacturing — good for Johnston's +YACOE profile; but also a run-lean PROE (−5.8 MIA 2025), 22.3% RB target share, and just 37% 11-personnel — the target tree flattens even as Herbert pulls pass volume above the Miami baseline (~33 att/g projected). McDaniel comped Johnston to "powerful, explosive" Xs he's coached — Julio Jones and Andre Johnson — and Herbert publicly called him a breakout candidate (SI/chargers.com OTA coverage, June 2026).
QB: Herbert, no benching risk; contingency (Trey Lance, tier C) hits Johnston's deep boundary role hardest per the profile's contingency line.
OL: elite tackles when healthy (Slater/Alt both return from IR), all-new interior — early-season pressure spikes are a modest fade on his deep-aDOT efficiency, but the unit projects as a major upgrade over 2025's 32nd-place PBWR.
Commitment: fifth-year option (~$18M for 2027) exercised April 2026 (chargers.com/Yahoo via team profile; RotoBaller, retrieved 2026-07-07).

Tripwires (re-run this eval if any fire)

Keenan Allen re-signs with LAC (team-profile watch item #1) → void; ~100+ targets un-vacate, verdict likely flips to FADE/AVOID at this price.
LAC adds any veteran outside WR, or camp/preseason reports show Tre Harris running ahead of Johnston with the 1s (X or Z).
Soft-tissue injury (hamstring/groin) costing him 2+ weeks of camp or Week 1.
ADP moves: rises inside ~pick 80 / WR38 → value case dies (HOLD at best); falls past ~pick 120 → strengthen toward high-confidence TARGET.
Preseason usage shows RP proxy <80% or heavier 2-TE/21-personnel than projected squeezing the No. 2 WR routes.

Sources

data/stats/2025/ & data/stats/2024/: receiving.csv, ngs_receiving.csv, participation.csv, ftn_charting.csv, snap_counts.csv, injuries.csv, passing.csv — nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07 (REG only for derived tables). Routes/RP are an on-field-during-charted-pass-plays proxy from participation.csv; coverage splits from participation defense_man_zone_type joined to pbp targets.
nflverse pbp 2025 & 2024 via nflreadpy load_pbp (computed 2026-07-07): RZ targets 15/12, RZ TS 16.1%/16.7%, inside-10 7/2, end-zone targets 8 (rank 35)/10, depth mix, pass-location mix, aDOT 11.8/10.8, 3rd-down targets 20/30, xTD 5.09 (2025) & 5.54 (2024) via league-average TD rates by bucket (EZ 40.6%, RZ-non-EZ 13.0%, other 1.2% — 2025 rates).
FTN charting (cached, 2026-07-07): catchable 54/84 (2025) & 65/91 (2024), drops 3/4, contested 10 tgt–6 rec (2025) & 22–8 (2024), screens 7/9, PA targets 14/23.
data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv: Johnston 100.0 = WR47 (ffc-ppr); McConkey 36.6, Hampton 16.9, Herbert 77.4.
data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json: age 24 (DOB 2001-09-06), 6'2"/208, TCU, years_exp 3, depth chart LWR order 2.
data/team-profiles/LAC.md (built 2026-07-07): McDaniel tendencies (PROE −5.8, motion ~70%, 37% 11-personnel, 22.3% RB TS, PA 28.3%), volume projection (~62.5 plays / ~33 att/g), vacated-target math (159; Allen 122), hierarchy, OL rebuild, Herbert hand, win total 10.5/9.5.
chargers.com (June 2026, via search 2026-07-07): McDaniel comps Johnston to Julio Jones/Andre Johnson; Johnston "set up for the yards after catch" minicamp quotes; Harbaugh/McDaniel praise. SI Chargers OTA coverage (June 2026): Herbert breakout endorsement.
RotoBaller / chargers.com / Yahoo (April–May 2026, retrieved 2026-07-07): fifth-year option exercised (~$18M, 2027).
NFL.com (Aug 2025) / heavy.com / SI / BetMGM (early July 2026, via search 2026-07-07): Allen's 2025 one-yr LAC return; still unsigned July 2026, Saints/Texans floated.
PFF via search (retrieved 2026-07-07): 67.6 overall / 67.8 receiving grade (49th–52nd of 81); possible X/Z swap note with Harris.
Fantasy Football Calculator player page (retrieved 2026-07-07): R1 pick 21 (2023) confirmed; TCU YAC-heavy college profile; consensus WR49. (FFC's stat table conflicts with nflverse on 2024–25 lines — nflverse cache is authoritative here.)
UNVERIFIED: exact slot%, provider xFP, MOF share beyond the 3-bucket pass-location proxy, 2023 rookie stat line (season not in cache), W18-2025 absence reason, Kolar contract terms.