Don't Look at My Team

Kimani Vidal — RB, LAC (2026)

Verdict

TARGET (medium confidence) at a free/undrafted price. Vidal is the classic handcuff-lottery-ticket quadrant (rb.md §7) with all three value factors present: a fragile lead back (Hampton — 2025 ankle fracture, pulled by medical staff after 2 snaps in the wild-card game), a top-10 offense (Herbert, 10.5 win total, rebuilt OL), and demonstrated succession — when Hampton went down in 2025, Vidal immediately ran a 70% snap share, 66.5% backfield opportunity share, three-down role for 9 games in this exact building, including 93% of snaps in the playoff game. Why the market is wrong: the market drafts Keaton Mitchell (ADP 178.8) as the LAC RB2 because of his speed and $5M guarantee, while the back who actually absorbed the volume role when it opened — and was on the field for 75% of dropbacks doing it — costs literally nothing. At a last-round/waiver price, a proven 12+ PPG contingency on a ~10.5-win offense is the exact sleeper profile the deep-pool screen hunts. He has no standalone season without a Hampton injury — that is priced in at zero.

Bull case

Proven, immediate contingency on a top-10 offense: 9-game 2025 audition at 70% snaps / 66.5% opp share / 12.4 PPG (in a Roman offense behind the 31st-ranked run-blocking line) — and the 2026 version of that role comes with a rebuilt OL, a 10.5 win total, and McDaniel's scheme. The wild-card game (93% snaps when Hampton was pulled) shows who the staff hands the offense to.
The room thinned out and nobody was added: Najee Harris, Haskins, Hines gone; no 2026 RB draft pick; Mitchell is a $4.6M/yr satellite whose 190-lb frame can't take the volume role. Vidal's succession to the early-down/goal-line work on a Hampton injury is close to clean — and Hampton has an ankle-fracture-plus-recurrence 2025 on his record.
Free: outside the entire 180-pick FFC mock range. The bar at this price is "a live path to a role," and he has the most-proven path of any undrafted-tier RB — with sneaky-decent underlying rushing (+0.50 RYOE/att vs a 31.6% heavy-box diet).

Bear case

Zero standalone value: if Hampton plays 17 games, Vidal is a ~5-carry, sub-1-target committee piece — TPRR ~0.10, aDOT −0.6, nothing but checkdowns; he was on the field on passing downs but earned almost no targets. In PPR that's a droppable ~35–60-point season, and his weeks 6–15 HVT/g (3.3) says even the lead version is grinder-shaped, not bellcow-shaped.
The staff has never chosen him when whole: healthy scratches weeks 1–3 2025, 2–21% snaps once Hampton returned (wk16–18), day-3 capital, an ERFA tender with zero guarantees, and a new play-caller whose scheme identity (wide zone, speed-in-space) explicitly imported Mitchell. A camp loss of the #2 job to Mitchell — or a veteran add (SI floated an Ekeler reunion, 2026-07-06) — turns him into a roster clog.
Grinder efficiency questions are real: 36.1% success rate, 3.9% breakaway rate, and the McDaniel wide-zone fit is unproven for his inside-zone/duo profile (team profile flags it). If the 2026 fill-in version is less efficient in the new scheme, the ceiling case shrinks even when the volume hits.

Projection & comps

Bottom-up (PPR assumed). Team inputs from data/team-profiles/LAC.md (2026-07-07): ~62.5 plays/g, ~27 rushes/g (~22 RB carries/g after ~5 Herbert), ~35.5 dropbacks/g, McDaniel MIA 2025 RB target share 22.3% (flows mostly to Mitchell/Hampton).

	Floor (20th)	Median (50th)	Ceiling (80th)
Scenario	Loses #2 job to Mitchell/vet add; Hampton plays 17	Clear early-down #2; Hampton misses ~2 games	Hampton misses 6–8 games; Vidal reprises the 2025 lead role
Carries	~45	~107 (15×~5 + 2×16)	~195
Targets	~5	~18	~31
Yards (ru+re)	~220	~570 (4.3 YPC on improved OL)	~1,040
TD (xTD-anchored)	1	3 (2025 window: 55% of team inside-5 carries; as #2 that share drops to ~15–20% of season total)	~6.5
PPR pts	~35	~90	~160

Games-played risk: medium — RB baseline; own 2025 injury log is one neck week (injuries.csv wk17). The bigger variance driver is Hampton's health, not Vidal's.

Comps (role/profile): Tyler Allgeier 2023 ATL (clear #2, ~121 PPR — high-median), Ray Davis 2024 BUF (day-3 #2, ~105 — median), Kenneth Gainwell 2024 PHI (~60 — floor-median), Jordan Mason 2024 SF (starter-injury fill-in, ~130+ in 12 games — ceiling), Vidal 2025 himself (117.9 PPR, 13 games — the contingency proof). No data/projections/ directory exists — external-projection sanity check unavailable.

Usage profile (rb.md §2–5)

Primary sample: weeks 6–15, 2025 — the role-driven late-season split (Hampton on ankle IR) that outweighs the full-season line per rb.md §2. 9 games. All nflverse-derived (pulled 2026-07-07); play-level numbers computed from participation.csv + pbp.

Metric	Wk 6–15 (lead window)	Full season 2025	Band	Read
Snap share	70.1%	54.5% (13 active gms)	Elite (window)	Three-down usage when the role was his
Opportunity share (backfield)	66.5% (163 of 245)	~33% carry share	Good→Elite	Next RB in window: Patterson 32 opps
Weighted opps /g	21.4 (143 car + 2.5×20 tgt)	~13.6	Good	Volume was real, target-light
High-value touches /g	3.3 (20 tgt + 10 inside-10 car)	~2.5	Concern→Good	The scoring-engine gap vs true bellcows
Inside-10 carry share	53% (10/19)	31% (11/35)	Good	Goal-line was his in window; inside-5 6/11 = 55%
Third-down on-field share	74.8% (110/147)	—	Elite	Did NOT leave the field on passing downs
Dropback participation (RP proxy)	75.8% (272/359 pass snaps; incl. pass-pro)	—	Good+	Routes not separable from pass-pro in nflverse
TPRR	~0.07–0.10 (20 tgt on ≤272 pass snaps)	—	Concern	On-field but not earning; avg air yds −0.6 = pure checkdowns
xFP	UNVERIFIED (no provider xFP on hand; actual 9.1 PPG, RB35 — PlayerProfiler, fetched 2026-07-07)		—

Efficiency (separating back from line — 2025 LAC RBWR was 69%, 31st, ESPN via team profile):

Metric	Value	Band	Source
RYOE /att (NGS)	+0.50 (+74.7 total, 36% of att over expected)	Good, near-elite	ngs_rushing.csv 2025
Success rate (EPA>0)	36.1%	Concern	pbp 2025 (computed)
Breakaway (15+ yd)	3.9% (6 runs)	Fringe-Good	pbp 2025 (computed)
8+ box rate	31.6% of att (NGS) — heavy; charted on-field avg box 5.32 (participation.csv, definitions differ)	Drag, not his	ngs_rushing.csv
YAC/att, MTF/touch	UNVERIFIED (no PFF/FantasyPoints export; PlayerProfiler advanced panel not populated, fetched 2026-07-07)	—	—
Pass-pro grade	UNVERIFIED — behavioral proxy: 74.8% third-down on-field share = staff trusted him on protection downs	—	computed

Read: boom-bust grinder behind a bad line — positive blocking-adjusted efficiency (RYOE) with poor down-to-down success rate. 4.15 YPC behind the 31st-ranked run-blocking unit, into a 31.6% heavy-box diet (NGS), is a quietly decent rushing profile. 2024 rookie year: 43-155-0 (3.6 YPC), 9 tgt — pre-role, low signal.

Context (team profile, cited: data/team-profiles/LAC.md, 2026-07-07)

Play-caller: Mike McDaniel, year 1 — outside-zone/motion/PA scheme; MIA 2025 RB target share 22.3%. Profile flags Vidal as a "grinder profile fits inside-zone/duo looks" — a partial scheme-fit question in a wide-zone identity, mitigated by his one-cut/north-south NGS efficiency (3.90) and the FB/21-personnel (Ingold) run packages.
OL: major projected upgrade — elite tackles (Slater/Alt returning from IR), all-new interior. 2025's 31st-ranked run blocking is not the 2026 baseline; that lift accrues to whoever carries.
Game script: win total 10.5 (BetMGM) / 9.5 (DK drift) → positive-script lean, which feeds early-down RB volume. Vidal's window usage skewed positive-script (25.5% of leading plays vs 13.8% of trailing-by-7+ plays got him a touch/target, wks 6–15) — but he stayed on the field trailing (playoff game: trailed throughout, 93% snaps). As a grinder his ceiling projection leans on team quality; at 10.5 wins, that box is checked.
Backfield (committee math, rb.md §7): Hampton (2025 R1 #22) is the locked lead + goal-line back — 2026 role loss for Vidal is not the question; contingency is. Mitchell (2-yr/$9.25M, $5M gtd) is a 4.37-speed satellite/space back — a cheap vet contract, not day-1/2 capital, and a 190-lb archetype that does not absorb 16 carries/game on an injury. Patterson extended (depth). Najee Harris/Haskins/Hines all gone; no RB drafted in 2026 (R5 #145 = DT Nick Barrett — chargers.com, April 2026). Vidal signed his exclusive-rights tender in April 2026 (chargers.com, 2026-04; thefantasyfootballers/fieldlevelmedia) — zero guarantees, but retained on purpose.
Beat consensus (May–July 2026): Hampton "entrenched" lead, back healthy from ankle fracture; "Vidal will compete with Keaton Mitchell to be the No. 2 … either will be worth a late-round pick as a handcuff" (CBS Sports 2026 outlook, fetched 2026-07-07); roundtable.io (2026-05-09) projects Vidal as the "glue guy" — short-yardage, pass-pro, 500–700 rush yards in a three-man rotation.

Pedigree screen (prospect-pedigree.md; deep-pool hard screen)

Draft capital: 2024 R6 #181 (rosters.csv) — day-3: "one bad week from committee; require usage proof, not camp hype." He has the usage proof — the 2025 window is exactly the demonstrated-NFL-usage gate a day-3 back must clear. Capital still caps how much benefit-of-the-doubt the staff owes him (they scratched him weeks 1–3, 2025, behind vet depth until injury forced the issue).
College: Troy all-time leading rusher — 781 car, 4,010 yds, 33 TD; 2023: 297-1,661, Sun Belt POY (Wikipedia/troytrojans.com via search, fetched 2026-07-07). Career receptions ~90 (per-season figures conflict across sources; comfortably clears the ≥40-reception three-down screen). College dominator 31.5%, 79th pct (PlayerProfiler, fetched 2026-07-07). G5 production — needs athletic confirmation, which he has.
Testing: RAS ~8.7–8.9 (ras.football via search); Speed Score 107.7 (87th pct), Burst 123.8 (76th pct) at 5'8"/213–215 (PlayerProfiler) — G5-dominator-with-traits, not a workout-warrior flag.
Age/mileage: turns 25 in Aug 2026 (DOB 2001-08-28, rosters.csv); NFL year 3. Career pro touches ~245 (48 in '24 + 184 in '25 incl. playoffs) — nowhere near the 1,800 cliff; 781 college carries noted as context. Years from the age-27 line: two.
Breakout screens: misses the year-2-leap trigger on capital (day-3, not day-1/2) and the incumbent didn't depart — this is not a breakout buy, it's a contingency buy. The applicable green flag is §12: *"clean handcuff to a fragile starter on a top-10 offense at a free ADP."*

Tripwires (void this eval and re-run)

LAC signs/trades for a veteran RB (Ekeler reunion chatter or otherwise) — succession clarity is the whole thesis.
Camp/preseason first-team reports put Mitchell (or Patterson) ahead of Vidal for early-down #2 work, or Vidal appears on roster-bubble lists at cutdowns (no contract protection) → drop to AVOID-as-clog.
Hampton misses camp time or re-aggravates the ankle → upgrade: Vidal becomes a priority last-two-rounds pick; re-price immediately.
Vidal's ADP climbs inside ~pick 160 — the verdict is price-dependent; at a 13th-round cost this profile is a HOLD at best.
Preseason usage shows Hampton taking 3rd-down/two-minute AND goal-line with Mitchell as the sole change-of-pace → Vidal's contingent share shrinks below the projection's assumptions.

Sources

data/stats/2025/rushing.csv, receiving.csv, weekly.csv, snap_counts.csv, ngs_rushing.csv, injuries.csv, rosters.csv, participation.csv — nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07 (all 2025 usage/efficiency; window splits computed from play level)
data/stats/2024/rushing.csv, receiving.csv, snap_counts.csv — nflverse, pulled 2026-07-07 (rookie year)
nflverse pbp 2025 via nflreadpy (loaded 2026-07-07): inside-10/inside-5 carries, third-down usage, success rate, 15+ yd runs, score-state splits, target air yards
data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv — FFC PPR top 180 + Sleeper search-rank tail (2026-07-07): Vidal no ADP; Hampton 16.9; K. Mitchell 178.8
data/team-profiles/LAC.md (built 2026-07-07): McDaniel scheme/volume, OL, win total, backfield claims, vacated touches
chargers.com (2026): ERFA tender + Patterson extension; Nick Barrett DT R5 #145 (draft class); OTA/minicamp coverage — fetched 2026-07-07
CBS Sports "2026 Outlook: Kimani Vidal" (fetched 2026-07-07): Vidal-vs-Mitchell #2 battle, handcuff framing, Hampton healthy
roundtable.io (2026-05-09): "glue guy" role projection, 500–700 yd rotation estimate
SI/chargers.com (Jan 2026, fetched 2026-07-07): Hampton pulled after 2 snaps in wild card (ankle recurrence), questionable pregame; SI (2026-07-06): Ekeler reunion speculation (not a signing)
Wikipedia / troytrojans.com / ESPN college (fetched 2026-07-07): Troy career 781-4,010-33; 2023 Sun Belt POY; career receptions ~90 (season splits conflict across sources — approximate)
ras.football via search (fetched 2026-07-07): RAS ~8.7–8.9; PlayerProfiler (fetched 2026-07-07): Speed Score 107.7 (87th pct), Burst 123.8, College Dominator 31.5%, 2025 9.1 FPPG (RB35)
UNVERIFIED: YAC/att, MTF/touch, PFF pass-block grade, provider xFP (no PFF/FantasyPoints exports in data/raw/; PlayerProfiler advanced panel unpopulated)