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DENDrake Maye (QB, NE) — 2026 evaluation
Verdict
HOLD (medium confidence) at ADP 65.2 / QB5 (FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07). Maye is the reigning fantasy QB2 (351.0 pts, 20.6 PPG in 4pt scoring — nflverse weekly.csv, pulled 2026-07-07) at age 23, with his play-caller retained and the best receiver of his career (A.J. Brown, traded 2026-06-01) arriving — and the market already discounts him three QB spots below his finish. But the profile is the methodology's least-bankable kind: elite *efficiency* (least predictive pillar) on modest pass volume (28.9 att/g) with a scramble-dependent, near-zero-designed-run rushing floor — not the top-3-positional-edge rushing profile that justifies paying up at a onesie position in 4pt scoring. Price and profile agree almost exactly; no "market is wrong" thesis clears the bar in either direction. Take him happily if he slides toward pick 75+; do not reach.
Bull case
- Two-season elite accuracy signal at age 23: CPOE +2.9 → +9.1 (NGS 2024/2025) with EPA/dropback jumping to elite — CPOE is QB-owned and sticky, and two seasons is the methodology's bar for believing an efficiency change. This is trait, not spike, and he doesn't turn 24 until August (Sleeper, 2026-07-07).
- The environment improved while the price discounted: reigning QB2 (351 pts) priced QB5 at 65.2 — the market pre-paid the regression — and then the team added the best receiver of his career (Brown) plus Doubs, retained the play-caller, and upgraded the OL interior on talent. Passing-efficiency carryover has unusually strong structural support.
- The floor pieces are quietly real: ~10% scramble rate sustained across two seasons and two coaching staffs, a 14-sneak short-yardage package (FTN), 30 consecutive starts, and INT-worthy rate in the good band. 20.6 PPG had weekly stability, not just season-total inflation.
Bear case
- He's priced to repeat a top-1% efficiency season on bottom-third volume. 28.9 att/g is below the good band, script/pace/PROE all cap it near 30, and the 8.93 YPA + 6.3% TD rate that carried QB2 are the two least-sticky numbers in the profile (passing xTD UNVERIFIED but certainly below 31). If YPA lands at ~7.7, he's a low-end QB1 who cost pick 65.
- The rushing floor is fragile by construction: 422 of 450 rush yards on scrambles, <2% designed-run rate (concern band), no designed package in McDaniels' history — the methodology explicitly grades scramble-built floors as coverage/OL-dependent, the first thing better protection erodes. In 4pt scoring he lacks the Konami edge that justifies QB5 pay-up at a onesie position.
- Pressure profile is partly self-inflicted and the OL has install risk: 47 sacks, ~22.6% pressure-to-sack, 2.97s time to throw (slowest tier); new LG + converted C + Campbell's knee could spike early-season interior pressure — the exact conditions under which hold-the-ball efficiency QBs crash (see Stroud 2024 bear comp). Meanwhile true dual-threats (Daniels 86.6, Hurts 93.1) cost 2+ rounds less — discounted for real injury reasons, but they cap Maye's relative upside at cost.
Projection & comps
Bottom-up, 17 games, 4pt pass TD / -1 INT / 0.1 rush yd / 6 rush TD / -2 fumble:
| Component | Floor (p20) | Median (p50) | Ceiling (p80) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 16 | 17 | 17 |
| Pass attempts | 460 | 502 (29.5/g × 17; team profile volume model) | 515 |
| YPA → pass yards | 7.7 → 3,540 | 8.4 → 4,215 | 8.9 → 4,580 |
| Pass TD | 22 | 28 (≈5.6% rate; regressed off 2025's 6.3% — xTD UNVERIFIED) | 34 |
| INT | 12 | 10 (anchored to 2.61% INT-worthy rate, not the 8 actuals) | 8 |
| Rush | 90 car, 360 yds, 2 TD | 100 car, 430 yds, 4 TD | 105 car, 500 yds, 6 TD |
| Points | ~265 | ~330 | ~390 |
- Passing basis: ~62 plays/g × ~60% dropback rate → ~37 dropbacks/g → ~29.5 att/g (team profile, 2026-07-07; 2025 actual 28.9 att/g). YPA regressed from 2025's league-outlier 8.93 toward 8.4 median — continuity (McDaniels yr 2) plus a net pass-catcher upgrade (Brown+Doubs in / Diggs out, ~21% of 2025 targets departed, under the 40% continuity tripline) justifies keeping most of it.
- Rushing basis (projected separately — it is the floor): ~62 scrambles (2 straight seasons ≈10% scramble rate: 10.8% in 2024, DraftSharks 2025-06; ~10.3% team rate 2025, nfelo) + sneak package (14 QB sneaks, FTN 2025) + minimal designed keepers. Age 23 — no age haircut. Rush TDs anchored near actual 4 (rushing xTD UNVERIFIED; sneak/goal-line access supports 4, scramble TDs are variance).
- Median 330 ≈ QB3–4 by 2025 scoring (QB5 scored 316) — a mild positive edge vs the QB5 price, fully offset by the efficiency-dependence of the range (floor 265 would have been ~QB12–13 in 2025).
- External sanity check: DK Network projects 4,094-27-11 passing + 532/4 rushing ≈ 332 pts (dknetwork.draftkings.com, 2026-06-01) — matches this median. RotoBaller (2026-06) is higher (4,772 yds, 32 TD, ranks him QB4). No
data/projections/directory on hand. - Comps: Joe Burrow 2022 (4,475-35-12 + 257/5 — efficiency yr-3, ~340 pts), Dak Prescott 2019 (4,902-30-11 + 277/3, ~347), Patrick Mahomes 2020 (4,740-38-6 + 308/2), Justin Herbert 2021 (5,014-38-15 + 302/3 — the volume-added ceiling case), bear comp C.J. Stroud 2024 (3,727-20-12, ~230 — the efficiency-crash shape when protection and environment slip).
- Games risk: medium — 30 straight starts since taking over (13 in 2024, 17 in 2025), only 6.1 carries/g (below the ≥8 nudge threshold), but 47 sacks and a 2.97s hold-the-ball style absorb real contact.
Usage profile (qb.md §2/§5 tables)
All 2025 numbers are REG-season, nflverse tables pulled 2026-07-07 unless noted.
| Metric | 2025 value | Band | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rush attempts / game | 6.1 (103 car) | Good (4–7) | Down from 7.8/g pace equivalent? No — 2024 was 4.2/g; volume rose with games |
| Designed rush rate | ~2% true designed (41 non-scramble carries incl. 14 sneaks and kneel-downs, / 1,063 team plays) | Concern (<2–4%) | PFF: 422 of his 450 rush yds came on scrambles (pff.com scrambling-QB ranking, 2026 offseason) — essentially no designed run package |
| Scramble rate | ~10.3% of dropbacks (~62 scrambles / 601 dropbacks) | Elite (≥6%) | 2nd-highest in NFL in 2024 (10.8%, DraftSharks 2025-06) — a persistent QB trait, but methodology grades scramble-built floors fragile (OL/coverage-dependent) |
| Rushing yards / game | 26.5 (450 yds) | Good (20–35) | Worth ~2.5x pass yards in 4pt; real but not the ≥35 elite floor |
| Red-zone rush share | UNVERIFIED | — | No public split found; not in cached tables |
| Inside-5 carries | UNVERIFIED — proxy: 14 QB sneaks (FTN charting, computed 2026-07-07) | Proxy: good | Sneak package = short-TD/1st-down access; some sneaks are midfield, not inside-5 |
| Rushing xTD | UNVERIFIED (actual 4) | — | Anchored median rush TD at 4 on the sneak role + scramble profile |
| Dropbacks / game | ~35.3 incl. scrambles (601/17, PFF dropback count); 31.7 att+sacks (nflverse) | Good (33–38) | Below the ≥38 elite gate |
| Pass attempts / game | 28.9 (492) | Below good band (30–35) | The structural cap: 14-3 script + 30:55 TOP + 2.4% no-huddle + 24 designed team rushes/g |
| Team PROE | +2.4% (nfelo, 2026-07-07) | Neutral-good | McDaniels is mildly pass-tilted but methodical; Vegas 9.5 win total keeps positive-script trim |
| xFP | UNVERIFIED (no provider xFP on hand) | — | Actual 20.6 PPG was QB2; usage-based xFP is certainly lower — the gap is the efficiency dependence |
| Efficiency metric | 2025 | 2024 | Band | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPA/dropback | +0.31 per (att+sack) — computed, nflverse weekly.csv | −0.07 | Elite (≥+0.18) | Cross-check: +0.295 EPA/play, 4th, thru W9 (Evan Lazar/NGS, X, 2025-11-04) |
| CPOE | +9.1 (NGS season row) | +2.9 | Elite (≥+3.0) | QB-owned, sticky, two-season sample — the core of the bull case |
| Pressure-to-sack | ≈22.6% (47 sacks / 208 FTN pressures, computed 2026-07-07) | worse (34 sacks, 29.9% pressure rate) | Mid-to-concern (14–20 good, >24 concern) | Pairs with 2.97s avg time to throw (NGS — slowest tier): pressure is partly QB-owned and travels with him |
| INT-worthy throw rate (TWP proxy) | 2.61% of charted throws (14/537, FTN computed) | 2.95% | Good (2.5–3.5) | 8 actual INTs ran slightly *under* the worthy rate — mild negative regression due, priced into median 10 INTs |
| Deep-ball rate (20+ air yds) | UNVERIFIED (NGS aggressiveness 17.3%, iAY 9.1) | UNVERIFIED | — | ngs_air_yards column empty in participation.csv |
| aDOT | 9.13 (air yards / att, nflverse) | 7.32 | Elite band (7.5–9.5) | Real downfield growth in yr 2 |
| Play-action rate | 23.8% of dropbacks (FTN, computed) | 17.4% | Good (22–28) | McDaniels-owned, carries with continuity |
Archetype (qb.md §10): closest to *dual-threat lite / efficiency passer* — he is not the pocket-volume passer (attempts too low) and not the dual-threat elite (rush yds/g 26.5 < 35, no designed package). The 2025 season was a top-1% efficiency year layered on a middling opportunity core. Evidence hierarchy (scoring-framework §3) says trust opportunity first — which is exactly why the median regresses him ~20 points despite the improved environment.
Context (from data/team-profiles/NE.md, built 2026-07-07)
- Play-caller: Josh McDaniels, OC, year 2 of this stint — the single most important continuity fact; 2025 (+0.157 EPA/play, best in class) is the direct prior with this exact QB. Slow, methodical (TOP 30:55), +2.4 PROE, game-plan-weekly identity, no designed-QB-run history of note.
- Pass catchers: A.J. Brown arrives (trade from PHI 2026-06-01, 2028 1st + 2027 5th; $28.75M gtd) as the true alpha McDaniels has fed before (Adams in LV); Romeo Doubs (4yr/$68M) in the slot; Hunter Henry retained (87 targets, 7 TD). Departed: Diggs (102 targets), Hooper, Gibson — ~131 vacated targets replaced with superior capital. Minicamp: Maye-to-Brown connection already producing ("19-for-22 in red-zone period" — SI/Pats Pulpit minicamp reports, 2026-06-10).
- O-line: mid-tier, upgraded on talent (PBWR 13th, RBWR 12th, 2025 final; Vera-Tucker signed at LG) but with install risk — new LG, position-switching yr-2 C (Wilson), Campbell returning from a late-2025 knee, Moses age 35. 47 sacks allowed in 2025; early-interior communication is the watch item for a hold-the-ball QB.
- Script/environment: Vegas win total 9.5 (o-140, DraftKings via CBS, ~2026-06-01) — positive script lean trims dropbacks; ~62 plays/g, ~60% dropback rate → ~29.5 att/g. This is the ceiling governor: the offense wins with efficiency and clock, not volume.
- Job security: absolute. #3 overall pick (2024), MVP runner-up, backup is Joshua Dobbs + an R7 rookie. Zero benching/bridge risk.
Tripwires (re-run this eval if any fire)
- McDaniels leaves (HC hire elsewhere or any play-caller change) — voids the continuity premise under both efficiency carryover and PA/scheme rates.
- A.J. Brown unavailable — injury, holdout, or option-bonus standoff (his $27.45M option decision is due the day before Week 1, per team profile) — the YPA-hold premise loses its anchor.
- Will Campbell knee setback or persistent camp reports of interior OL trouble — pressure spike risk on a 2.97s-TTT QB; floor drops a tier.
- ADP rises past ~50 overall (round 4) — flips verdict to FADE: that price pays full career-year freight.
- Camp reports of a designed QB-run / red-zone keeper install — flips verdict toward TARGET: it adds the exact missing Konami floor. (Conversely: league settings confirmed as 6pt pass TD or superflex → TARGET.)
Sources
data/stats/2025/+data/stats/2024/: weekly.csv, passing.csv, rushing.csv, ngs_passing.csv, participation.csv, ftn_charting.csv, pbp_summary.csv — nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07. Derived numbers (EPA/dropback, CPOE weighting, INT-worthy rate 14/537, pressure 141/537 throws, PA 23.8%, 14 QB sneaks, deep-ball UNVERIFIED) computed 2026-07-07 from REG-only joins.data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv— FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07: Maye 65.2 (QB5; Allen 27.8, Burrow 47.6, Lamar 53.0, Dak 58.8, Mahomes 77.1, Daniels 86.6, Hurts 93.1).data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json— age 23 (DOB 2002-08-30), years_exp 2, UNC, 6'4"/225.data/team-profiles/NE.md— built 2026-07-07 (McDaniels/Vrabel staff, Brown trade, Doubs signing, OL, Vegas 9.5, volume model).- PFF scrambling-QB ranking (pff.com, 2026 offseason): 422 scramble yards, 75.6 rush grade (11th/30); DraftSharks (2025-06): 2024 = 4 designed rushes, 10.8% scramble rate (2nd).
- Evan Lazar / Next Gen Stats via X (2025-11-04): thru W9 EPA/play +0.295 (4th), CPOE +11.5% (1st); NGS X post (2026-01): AFC Championship rushing detail.
- Minicamp reporting: SI.com Patriots On SI, Pats Pulpit, Boston.com, NBC Sports Boston (2026-06-09 through 06-12) — Maye "excellent," red-zone 19-for-22, Brown rapport, McDaniels letting Maye call plays at the line.
- Fantasy landscape: dknetwork.draftkings.com (2026-06-01) projection 4,094-27 + 532/4; RotoBaller (2026-06) QB4, 4,772/32; ESPN fantasy trade reaction (2026-06); CBS Sports / SI (2026-06) on Daniels' injury-driven ADP fall (7 games in 2025).
- League scoring: assumed full PPR, 4pt pass TD, no TE premium, 1QB —
methodology/league-settings.mdplaceholders unconfirmed as of 2026-07-07.