New England Patriots

NE — team profile

Built per methodology/team-context.md. Every number needs a source + as-of date or the UNVERIFIED mark. Position evals cite this file; they do not re-research it.

2025 context: 14–3, AFC #2 seed, won the AFC Championship over Denver, lost Super Bowl LX to Seattle 29–13. Maye was MVP runner-up (NESN / patriots.com / Britannica, verified 2026-07-07).

Play-caller

• Calls plays: Josh McDaniels, OC — confirmed. Patriots.com describes McDaniels as "the lead architect and the offensive play-caller" on Vrabel's 2026 staff ("Five Takeaways From Patriots OC Josh McDaniels..." + "Patriots Coaching Staff Updates for 2026," patriots.com, staff page dated 2026-03-16; verified 2026-07-07). Vrabel does not call offense.
• Tenure with team: entering year 2 of this stint (hired Jan 2025; prior NE OC 2006–08, 2012–21). Prior relationship with QB1: one full season with Maye — the 2025 offense (+0.157 EPA/play, best-in-class; nflverse pbp_summary, pulled 2026-07-07) is the direct prior.

Last 3 play-calling stops (skip non-calling years):

Read: McDaniels is a mildly pass-tilted (+2.4 PROE), slow-and-methodical, low-11-personnel caller who builds weekly game plans rather than a fixed identity — the 2025 stop is the governing prior since it's this exact roster and QB. He spreads targets by design (no 2025 Patriot cleared a 22% target share) and keeps RB/TE routes healthy (17.2% RB share, Henry at 18.1%), but he has fed a true alpha before (Adams in LV), and A.J. Brown's arrival is exactly that test — expect Brown to push toward a 24–27% share while the low 11-personnel rate (44% all-downs, FTN) keeps WR3+ snaps scarce and TE/FB packages fat.

QB situation

• QB1: Drake Maye — 2024 #3 overall pick, rookie deal through 2027 + 2028 fifth-year option; 2025: 72% comp, 4,394 yds, 31 TD / 8 INT, 450 rush yds, MVP runner-up (nflverse passing.csv, pulled 2026-07-07; NESN). Benching risk: none.
• Backup: Joshua Dobbs (2025 QB2, rostered; NE drafted Behren Morton R7-234 as QB3 — NESN draft tracker, 2026-04) — tier B: functional journeyman, offense compresses (−aDOT, screens up), and Maye's ~5 scrambles/game of hidden rushing value disappears.
• Contingency line: If Maye misses time: Dobbs, tier B — pass rate drops ~3–5 pts toward run/quick game, aDOT falls, Brown still commands targets but shifts from downfield X work to hitches/slants; Henderson's receiving role and Henry's underneath role hold best; deep/efficiency profiles (Doubs red-zone work, Boutte-type field-stretching) drop a tier.

O-line

• Projected starters LT–RT: LT Will Campbell (2025 #4 pick; returning from late-2025 knee injury — camp flag, Boston Globe 2026-06-04) · LG Alijah Vera-Tucker (FA from NYJ, 3yr/$42M — ESPN FA tracker, 2026-03) · C Jared Wilson (2025 R3; moving LG→C, his natural college position — Pats Pulpit, 2026-03) · RG Mike Onwenu (incumbent) · RT Morgan Moses (incumbent, age 35). R1-28 OT Caleb Lomu (Utah) is the swing tackle, not a projected starter (Pats Pulpit, 2026-04). Departed: C Garrett Bradbury traded to CHI for a 2027 5th on 2026-03-11 (Yahoo/CHGO).
• Interior vs edge: interior is the strength on paper (Vera-Tucker + Onwenu is a quality guard pair) but carries install risk — new LG plus a position-switching second-year C; early-season interior pressure spikes are the risk to Maye's deep game. Edge: Campbell's knee and Moses' age are the flags; 47 sacks allowed in 2025 (nflverse passing.csv) says pressure was real despite mid-pack win rates (Maye's hold-the-ball style contributes). Net: mid-tier unit, upgraded on talent, watch weeks 1–4 interior communication.

Scheme family

• Run scheme: gap/duo-heavy with inside-zone mix, high under-center and 2-back usage (16% 21-personnel + 7% 22, FTN charting; FB Reggie Gilliam signed 3yr/$12M from BUF — ESPN FA tracker 2026-03). RB fits: downhill/contact-balance backs (Stevenson) and one-cut burst backs (Henderson) both fit; McDaniels tailors runs to the back, not vice versa.
• Pass-game family: Erhardt-Perkins / west-coast hybrid — timing, option routes, heavy TE + backfield involvement, game-plan-specific weekly identity (patriots.com "Breaking Down Josh McDaniels's Offense," 2025). Implications: healthy RB/TE target floors, mid aDOT (9.2, nfelo 2025), slot production is scheme-created rather than one player's alignment monopoly; WR3 snaps gated by the low 11-personnel rate.

Target/touch hierarchy & vacated math

Departed (name — 2025 targets / carries; nflverse receiving.csv + rushing.csv, pulled 2026-07-07):

• WR Stefon Diggs — 102 targets / 0 carries (released 2026-03-11; ESPN 2026-03)
• TE Austin Hooper — 26 targets (signed with ATL; ESPN FA tracker 2026-03)
• RB Antonio Gibson — 3 targets / 25 carries (released 2026-02-23 off a W5 torn ACL; patriots.com)
• RB D'Ernest Johnson — 13 carries (2026 status UNVERIFIED — presumed unsigned FA)

Vacated targets: 131 · Vacated carries: 25–38 (38 if Johnson is gone). Note: vacated volume ≥120 but *massive* capital arrived against it — this is not a feeding-opportunity flag for incumbents; it's a squeeze on Hollins/Boutte/Douglas.

Arrivals (claim):

• WR A.J. Brown — trade from PHI, 2026-06-01, for a 2028 1st + 2027 5th; $28.75M gtd 2026 (NFL.com, ESPN, Pats Pulpit). Presumptive WR1 claim over everyone. 2025 (PHI): 78-1003-7, 4th straight 1,000-yd season (ESPN).
• WR Romeo Doubs — FA from GB, 4yr/$68M base, $39M gtd (NFL.com/Pats Pulpit, 2026-03-10). Top-15 positional money = firm WR2 claim; played primarily slot / third-down role in GB (NFL.com).
• TE Eli Raridon — R3 pick (Notre Dame; NESN draft tracker 2026-04). TE2 claim on Hooper's vacated 512 snaps/26 targets.
• FB Reggie Gilliam (3yr/$12M), RB Jam Miller (R7-245), QB Behren Morton (R7-234).

Projected pecking order (contested slots marked):

Next: Kyle Williams (2025 R3, outside WR3 projection), DeMario Douglas (part-time slot), Kayshon Boutte (trade-rumor limbo — skipped OTAs; not in beat projections, NBC Sports Boston 2026-06-02), Efton Chism III.

RB committee split: contested 1A/1B. Early-down: Stevenson-led split when both healthy (~55/45, trending toward Henderson) — 2025: Stevenson 533 snaps/14 g and 130-603-7 vs Henderson 501 snaps/17 g and 180-911-9 (nflverse snap_counts + rushing.csv); June beat reporting still calls Stevenson the "top dog" (Pats Pulpit scouting report, 2026-06). Passing downs: Henderson. Goal-line/short-yardage: Stevenson, but Henderson scored 9 rush TD mostly on explosives — TD split is genuinely contested. Depth: Jennings, Mitchell, Larison, Miller (R7).

Game environment

• Vegas win total: 9.5, over -140 / under +115 at DraftKings (CBS Sports, early June 2026; market as of 2026-06-01 also priced over 9.5 and under 10.5 both -150, i.e., ~10 wins) → script lean: positive (≥9.5 band; reigning AFC champion, but books price a 4.5-win regression off 14–3 on schedule difficulty).
• Projected plays/game: ~62 (2025 actual 62.5, nflverse; neutral-to-slow pace, TOP 30:55, no-huddle 2.4%, positive script trims hurry-up) · Projected pass rate: ~60% of plays as dropbacks (2025: 61.2% raw; PROE +2.4; positive script and clock-kill trim slightly, Brown arrival supports it)
• Projected pass attempts/game: ~29.5 · rush attempts/game: ~25 designed (~29–30 official incl. ~5 QB scrambles) — inputs: 62 plays × 60% = ~37 dropbacks = ~29.5 attempts + ~2.7 sacks + ~5 scrambles; 2025 actuals were 29.5 att/g, 24.2 designed rush/g, 10.3% scramble rate (nflverse pbp_summary + passing.csv; nfelo).

Defensive identity

Per methodology §8 — consumed by DST evals (dst.md §3) and /weekly-edge coverage-matchup reads (in-season.md §2).

• Runs the defense: Zak Kuhr — confirmed. Promoted to full-time DC 2026-03-16 (patriots.com, NFL.com, ESPN); he had already been the defensive play-caller since September 2025, when DC Terrell Williams stepped back for cancer treatment (Williams is now assistant head coach). Vrabel (defensive HC) shapes identity but Kuhr calls it.
• Tenure with team: year 2 on staff (ILB coach 2025 → play-caller from Sept 2025 → DC 2026); Vrabel/Williams Tennessee tree (with them 2020–23 in TEN). New DC: no by the person-not-title rule — dc_new: false because the 2025 scheme stats below are Kuhr's own play-calling output, not a predecessor's. Mild confidence trim only: first full offseason with the title.
• Front/scheme family: multiple/hybrid front (Vrabel Tennessee-tree: odd/even multiple, edge-driven with interior push from Milton Williams/Christian Barmore — patriots.com, Vrabel quotes 2026-03)

Context: 18.8 PPG allowed (320 points, 4th in NFL — Yahoo/Athlon, 2026), 19 takeaways (modest vs the pressure profile — takeaway-regression upside), −0.041 EPA/play allowed (nflverse).

• Key defensive arrivals/departures: Departed — EDGE K'Lavon Chaisson (→ WAS, 1yr/$12M; 6.5 sacks as of late Nov 2025, final total UNVERIFIED), DT Khyiris Tonga (→ KC 3yr/$21M), LB Anfernee Jennings (released) (ESPN FA tracker, 2026-03). Arrived — DE Dre'Mont Jones (3yr/$39.5M), EDGE Gabe Jacas (R2, Illinois), CB Karon Prunty (R4), S Kevin Byard (1yr/$9M) (ESPN FA tracker + NESN draft, 2026-03/04). Retained core: EDGE Harold Landry (team-high 8.5 sacks, patriots.com), DTs Milton Williams + Christian Barmore, CB1 Christian Gonzalez (2025 Pro Bowl) with Carlton Davis opposite. Net: Chaisson's rush snaps are replaced with equivalent money (Jones) plus R2 capital (Jacas) — pressure profile should hold in the 25–28% range.
• Shadow-CB tendency: Gonzalez is a top-tier man corner who has traveled with WR1s in select matchups in prior seasons; 2025 full-season shadow-vs-sides charting split UNVERIFIED — treat weekly shadow calls as news.

Read: A top-5 scoring defense built on an elite four-man-plus pressure engine (27%) with moderately aggressive blitzing and a man-leaning coverage trend that intensified in the playoffs — soft spot is underneath zone between the numbers rather than the boundary. Continuity case is strong (same caller, same core, CB1 retained); the offseason swapped one rotational edge for a vet DE plus R2 pick, so the pressure profile carries into 2026.

Stability & change log

• Stability: medium — reasoning per methodology §10: play-caller and QB1 both return (McDaniels yr 2 of stint, Maye entrenched) and 4 of 5 OL bodies return, but the caller has only one year in the seat (fails the ≥2-yr bar for high), the WR room's top was rebuilt in one offseason (Brown in / Diggs out), and two genuine open items remain (slot rotation, RB 1A/1B usage). One notch below high, nowhere near low.
• Watch items: (1) Kayshon Boutte trade rumors / OTA absence — a trade fires the skill-position trigger; (2) slot rotation in camp — Doubs vs Douglas vs Hollins snap reporting could reorder #3/#5; (3) Will Campbell's knee in camp — an OL-starter trigger if he misses time; (4) RB committee usage reports — a decisive Henderson takeover reorders touches; (5) Brown's $27.45M option-bonus decision due the day before Week 1 (formality, but contractual); (6) win-total moves ≥1.5 off the 9.5/10 market.