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@NEBo Nix — QB, DEN — 2026
Verdict
TARGET (medium confidence) at ADP 115.6 / QB16 (FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07). Nix has finished QB9 (322.0 pts, 2024) and QB8 (309.8 pts, 2025) in this scoring across 34-of-34 starts, his 2025 finish was fully usage-supported (combined pass+rush xTD ≈ actual TDs), and the 2026 environment improved: Jaylen Waddle arrives against ~4 vacated targets, all five OL starters return from the No. 1 pass-protecting line in football, and the Payton system's top-3 play volume and +1.6% PROE are retained under new caller Davis Webb. Why the market is wrong: it is pricing the ankle surgery and the first-time play-caller as production risk, while the top of the evidence hierarchy — usage and situation — says continuity: ~674 dropbacks of secure, high-volume work with zero benching risk and upgraded weapons, available eight ADP spots below Caleb Williams and behind Jaxson Dart. At pick 115.6 the median outcome is a weekly starter and the downside is a free cut. The verdict is TARGET rather than MUST-HAVE because his rushing profile is genuinely fragile (scramble-heavy, rushing xTD 1.59 vs 5 actual rush TDs in 2025) and CPOE has been negative two straight years — this is a volume/environment bet, not a Konami one.
Bull case
- Back-to-back top-9 totals at a QB16 price, and the finishes were earned by usage: derived 2025 xFP ≈ 300 (xTD-adjusted) vs 309.8 actual — passing xTD (28.45) ran *above* his 25 actual pass TDs, so aggregate TD regression is roughly neutral-to-positive on the passing side. Volume (39.6 db/gm), job, and durability (34/34) are the stickiest signals in the system and all point up.
- The environment got better while the price got cheaper: Waddle added to zero vacated targets, the No. 1 pass-pro OL returns 5/5, elite sack avoidance (11.2% pressure-to-sack) keeps the attempt volume clean, and EPA/dropback improved +0.086 → +0.125 in year 2. A year-3 QB with rising efficiency and his best-ever receiver corps is the market's classic under-price.
- Asymmetric price: at pick 115.6 he costs a round-10 pick for a median ~QB9-in-totals outcome; QB15–17 by ADP (Dart, Baker) offer no comparable two-year floor. If the ankle or Webb install goes sideways, replacement is free on waivers in a 1QB league — the pick risks almost nothing.
Bear case
- The Konami edge mostly isn't there, and what's left is fragile and rehabbing: rushing value is scramble-led (36 scrambles vs 30 designed), scramble rate fell 7.8% → 5.3%, rush yds/gm 25.3 → 20.9, inside-5 carries totaled 1 in 2025, and rushing xTD was 1.59 against 5 actual rush TDs — expect ~2-3, not 5, and a surgically repaired ankle threatens the scramble yardage that remains. In 4pt scoring that's the difference between QB8 and QB12.
- Accuracy below expectation two straight years: NGS CPOE −2.57 and −2.07 (concern band), INT-worthy rate above league average both years with a fortunate INT ledger (1.78% actual vs 2.18% league) — the efficiency case rests on environment, and the environment just handed play-calling to a 31-year-old who has never called a play at any level.
- Positive script + install drag cap the volume thesis: 9.5 win total, a No. 1 defense returning nearly intact, and a first-year caller trimming pace — if DEN leads and Webb slows down, the 604-attempt base erodes toward 560, and Nix's PPG (18.2, ~1–1.5 above streaming replacement) doesn't survive a volume haircut in 1QB.
Projection & comps
| Floor (20th) | Median | Ceiling (80th) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points (PPR assumed, 4pt pass TD) | 225 | 288 | 330 |
Build (bottom-up, per scoring-framework §2, from team profile volume inputs of ~35.5 pass att/gm and ~64.5 plays/gm):
- Passing (median): ~604 attempts (35.5 × 17) × 6.6 YPA (2024–25 range 6.66/6.42, small Waddle-separation bump net of first-year-caller drag) ≈ 3,985 yds (159 pts). Pass TDs anchored to passing xTD: 4.35% blended xTD rate (2025: 28.45 xTD on 617 att = 4.6%; 2024: 23.4 on 568 = 4.1%) → 26 pass TDs (104 pts) — above his 25 actual in 2025, because his passing TDs ran *under* expectation. INTs from INT-worthy rate, not last year's count: 3.57% IW × ~62% league conversion ≈ 2.2% → 13 INTs (−13).
- Rushing (median, projected separately): ~62 real carries (30 designed + 36 scrambles in 2025, trimmed slightly for post-surgery year-1 scramble caution; age 26 = no age haircut) × ~5.4 YPC net of kneel losses ≈ 330 yds (33 pts). Rush TDs anchored to rushing xTD (1.59 in 2025, 2.98 in 2024), not the 5 actuals: 2.5 (15 pts). Fumbles: −2.
- Median sums to ~296 at 17 games; stated median 288 reflects ~0.5 expected games lost (post-surgery). Floor 225 = ankle recurrence / ~14 games at reduced mobility and efficiency under the new caller. Ceiling 330 = 17 games, Waddle unlocks YPA ~7.0, ~29 pass TDs, rushing holds at 2024 levels — roughly a QB4–5 season in either of the last two years.
Games risk: medium — 34/34 career starts, not a heavy-carry runner (3.9 real carries/gm — no §3 heavy-runner nudge), but coming off a Jan 2026 right-ankle fracture with surgery plus an April 2026 bone-spur cleanup; cleared trajectory is "full go" for camp with no PUP candidacy (ESPN, denverbroncos.com, June–July 2026).
Comp seasons (this scoring): Bo Nix 2024 (322.0), Dak Prescott 2025 (319.8), Caleb Williams 2025 (315.0), Jared Goff 2025 (311.1), Baker Mayfield 2025 (284.9 — the down-mix outcome). Source: data/stats/2024–2025 passing/rushing.csv, league scoring applied, computed 2026-07-07.
External projections: none on file (data/projections/ absent) — no cross-check available, noted per SKILL §4.
Usage profile (opportunity core, 2025 REG unless noted)
| Metric | Value | Band | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rush att/gm (excl. kneels) | 3.9 (66/17); 2024: 4.6 | fringe good | Declining year-over-year (92→83 gross carries) |
| Designed rush rate | 2.78% of team plays (30/1,079); 2024: 2.70% | below good (4–8%) | Small, stable sneak/keeper package — not a scheme commitment |
| Scramble rate | 5.3% (36/674 dropbacks); 2024: 7.8% | good | Fell sharply year 2; the fragile half of his rushing value |
| Rush yds/gm | 20.9 (356/17); 2024: 25.3 | good (barely) | Worth 2.5× pass yards in 4pt — but trending down |
| RZ rush share | 18.9% (14/74 team RZ carries); 2024: 21.6% | elite | Real RZ involvement — but mostly 10–20 yd line, not goal line |
| Inside-5 carries | 1 (2025); 6 (2024) | concern | No sneak-TD floor; 2025 rush TDs came from distance |
| Rushing xTD | 1.59 (actual 5); 2024: 2.98 (actual 4) | concern | Two straight years over xTD — regression flag, project ~2.5 |
| Dropbacks/gm | 39.6 (674/17) | elite | The actual edge: top-shelf volume |
| Pass att/gm | 36.3 (617/17 pbp basis) | elite | 604+ attempt base projected for 2026 |
| Team PROE | +1.6% (4th, 2025) | good/near-elite | Payton-system prior; low confidence under Webb (see §4) |
| xFP | ~300 season / 17.7 PPG (derived: 2025 usage with xTD + IW-implied INTs swapped for actuals) | low-end QB1 | 2025's QB8 finish was usage-supported, not TD luck in aggregate. Provider xFP UNVERIFIED (no export on file) |
Efficiency (QB-owned vs environment-owned):
| Metric | 2025 | 2024 | Band | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPA/dropback (incl. scrambles) | +0.125 (674 db) | +0.086 (641 db) | good, improving | Real year-over-year growth; QB-owned trajectory |
| CPOE | NGS −2.07 / pbp −1.20 | NGS −2.57 / pbp +0.56 | concern (NGS basis) | Below expectation both years on NGS; sticky and QB-owned — the talent question |
| Pressure-to-sack | 11.2% (22 sacks / 196 pressured) | 12.4% (24/194) | elite | Elite, sticky, QB-owned; drives the sack-free volume |
| INT-worthy rate (FTN IW/att — TWP proxy) | 3.57% (22/617); league 3.35% | 3.87% (22/568); league 3.53% | slightly worse than avg | Actual INT rate 1.78% vs league 2.18% — mild INT good fortune; project 13, not 11 |
| Deep-ball rate (20+ air yds) | 11.7% | 13.0% | good | Ceiling source intact |
| aDOT (NGS intended air yds) | 7.51 | 7.39 | good/elite edge | Healthy depth, not a checkdown environment |
| Play-action rate | ~25.5% (172 PA plays / 674 db, FTN REG) | ~27.7% (184/~665) | good | Play-caller-owned; system retained |
Archetype (qb.md §10): pocket volume passer with a scramble layer — *not* dual-threat elite (rush yds/gm 20.9 < 35; goal-line role absent). Pattern (§11): partial year-2-leap analog carried into year 3 — improving EPA/dropback, retained system, upgraded pass-catchers — but the strict screen wants CPOE ≥ 0, which he fails.
Context (from data/team-profiles/DEN.md, built 2026-07-07)
- Play-caller: Davis Webb, first-time caller at any level — Payton ceded play-calling (announced 2026-02-24, ESPN) but oversees the same system with staff continuity (Strief run game, Morton pass game). Webb has been Nix's position coach his entire career. Every tendency is a low-confidence Payton-system prior: +1.6% PROE (4th), 60% neutral pass rate (6th), 66.0 plays/gm (3rd, 2025). Profile stability: low (structural first-time-caller rating), heavily mitigated by continuity. CBS Sports (June 2026) frames Webb's Air Raid roots as a pass-volume tailwind.
- Injury status: fractured right ankle Jan 2026 (Divisional Round), surgery Jan + bone-spur cleanup April 2026; limited in minicamp by design, "could be full go right now" per Nix, no PUP candidacy per Payton (ESPN, NFL.com, denverbroncos.com, June–July 2026). Sleeper lists him Questionable as of 2026-07-07 — a rehab-status artifact, not a camp hold-out signal. Watch camp reps anyway.
- O-line: 5/5 starters return; PFF No. 1 OL of 2025, league-low 6 OL-charged sacks, PBWR 8th; 28–29% pressure rate allowed (charting basis). Best pass-protection environment in football; LG (Powers) is the one contested spot.
- Weapons: Waddle (1st+3rd+4th trade capital, $28.25M APY) joins Sutton (124 tgt), Franklin (104), Engram, Harvey against ~4 vacated targets — compression for the pass-catchers, pure upgrade for the QB. Continuity check passes easily: far under the 40%-departure threshold, so 2025 efficiency carryover is trustworthy, with upside from Waddle's separation.
- Script/volume: Vegas win total 9.5 (DraftKings via CBS, 2026-07-01) with the NFL's No. 1 defense returning nearly intact — positive script lean; leading teams run, which caps the 66-plays/gm and PROE inputs at the margin (profile projects ~64.5 plays/gm, ~35.5 pass att/gm). This is the volume-side bear lever.
- Job security: none in question — 2024 No. 12 pick on rookie deal through 2027 + option; QB2 is a Stidham/Ehlinger battle.
Tripwires (re-run this eval if any fire)
- Ankle setback — any new procedure, PUP placement, or limited reps past the first week of training camp (late July 2026).
- ADP rises inside ~pick 90 / QB10–11 — the thesis is the price; at starter-premium cost this profile is the 1QB dead zone (HOLD/FADE).
- Play-caller churn or run-package removal — Payton retaking calls mid-camp, or beat reports that the QB keeper/sneak package is out of the install while Nix rehabs.
- Receiver-corps shock — Waddle or Sutton lost for extended time (re-derive YPA and pass xTD downward).
- Camp reports of visibly reduced mobility — scramble yardage is ~half his rushing value; a pocket-bound Nix is a pure volume passer with a negative CPOE.
Sources
data/stats/2025/anddata/stats/2024/— passing.csv, rushing.csv, ngs_passing.csv, pbp_summary.csv, participation.csv, ftn_charting.csv (nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07). REG-only for derived tables.- nflverse play-by-play 2024–2025 (loaded via nflreadpy 2026-07-07, REG filtered): dropbacks, EPA/dropback, CPOE (pbp basis), designed-vs-scramble split, RZ/inside-5/inside-10 carries, deep-ball rate, half-season designed-run splits, and xTD (league TD-rate-by-yardline buckets, 2024–25 pooled, applied to Nix's attempt distribution).
- Derived pressure-to-sack and INT-worthy rates: participation.csv
was_pressure+ ftn_charting.csvis_interception_worthyjoined on game/play id, DEN offense REG (computed 2026-07-07). IW rate is a TWP proxy (excludes fumble-worthy plays); PFF TWP UNVERIFIED (no export on file). data/team-profiles/DEN.md(built 2026-07-07): play-caller, PROE, pace, OL ranks, Waddle trade, vacated-target math, Vegas win total 9.5 (DraftKings via CBS Sports, 2026-07-01), Nix injury timeline.data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv— ADP 115.6, QB16 (FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07).data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json— age 26 (DOB 2000-02-25), years_exp 2, injury_status Questionable, depth chart QB1 (as of 2026-07-07).- Web (July 2026): ESPN — Nix on track for camp, April surgery was bone spurs; NFL.com — "I could be full go right now"; denverbroncos.com — Payton "full speed by training camp," no PUP; CBS Sports — Webb Air Raid roots / Waddle-Nix outlook; NBC Sports/Yahoo — 2026 Broncos fantasy preview (as-of dates June–July 2026).
- UNVERIFIED: provider xFP (Fantasy Points/PlayerProfiler); PFF TWP rate; PFR-definition pressure rate. League scoring assumed (PPR, 4pt pass TD, 1QB) pending league-settings.md confirmation.