Denver Broncos

DEN — team profile

Built per methodology/team-context.md. Every number needs a source + as-of date or the UNVERIFIED mark. Position evals cite this file; they do not re-research it.

Context: Denver went 14-3 in 2025 (AFC No. 1 seed), lost the AFC Championship Game 10-7 to New England after Bo Nix fractured his ankle at the end of the Divisional Round win over Buffalo (ESPN, NFL.com, as-of 2026-03; confirmed 2026-07-07). Joe Lombardi (nominal OC, non-caller) was fired two days after the AFCCG loss.

Play-caller

• Calls plays: Davis Webb, OC — confirmed. Sean Payton announced at the combine (2026-02-24) that Webb will be the primary play-caller in 2026, the first time Payton has ceded play-calling as an NFL HC since 2006. Payton: "I'll still be involved" (ESPN, 2026-02-24; NFL.com; denverbroncos.com staff announcement, Feb 2026).
• Tenure with team: 4th season (Broncos QB coach 2023–25, promoted to OC Feb 2026) · Prior relationship with QB1: Webb has been Nix's position coach for Nix's entire NFL career (ESPN, 2026-02-24).

Last 3 play-calling stops (skip non-calling years):

Read: Webb has never called plays at any level of the NFL — per methodology §9 every tendency here is a low-confidence Payton-system prior, not a Webb track record. The system stays (Payton oversees, same staff tree, run-game coordinator Zach Strief and pass-game coordinator John Morton retained/installed around Webb — 9news/NBC Sports, Feb 2026), so expect the 2025 shape — top-5 PROE, top-3 plays/game, ~60% neutral pass rate, healthy RB targets — with a first-year install drag on pace and aggressiveness early. Payton's stated reason for the handoff was play-call speed/efficiency, which argues against a philosophical shift.

QB situation

• QB1: Bo Nix — 2024 1st-rounder (No. 12), rookie deal through 2027 + 5th-year option; benching risk: none. 2025: 388/612 (63.4%), 3,931 yds, 25 TD / 11 INT, only 22 sacks taken, +356 rush yds and 5 rush TD (data/stats/2025/passing.csv, rushing.csv, pulled 2026-07-07). Injury flag: fractured right ankle Jan 2026 (Divisional Rd), surgery Jan + cleanup procedure April 2026; limited at minicamp, Payton says "full go" for training camp (Heavy/ClutchPoints/AtoZ Sports, June 2026). Watch camp reps.
• Backup: open QB2 competition — Jarrett Stidham vs. Sam Ehlinger (both re-signed March 2026; Stidham was not handed the job — SI Broncos, June 2026). Stidham tier B (started the AFCCG after Nix's injury; functional, offense compresses — 7 points in that start), Ehlinger tier C.
• Contingency line: If Nix misses time: Stidham (presumed), tier B — expect a ~3–5 pt pass-rate cut, lower aDOT, screens/checkdowns up; Sutton's contested/possession profile holds best, Waddle/Franklin deep-and-intermediate work is hit hardest, RB targets hold. If Ehlinger wins the job and starts, treat as tier C — floor drops a tier for every pass-catcher.

O-line

• Projected starters LT–RT: Garett Bolles (age 34; 90.8 PFF pass-block grade in 2025, best among OTs) — Ben Powers (flag: coming off partially torn biceps; $13M 2026 pay non-guaranteed; contested — camp competition vs. Alex Palczewski and R4 rookie Kage Casey) — Luke Wattenberg (extended through 2029, ~$48M — Heavy, 2026) — Quinn Meinerz (7th among guards in RBWR) — Mike McGlinchey (age 31; must hold off Frank Crum) (Yahoo/SI Broncos, June 2026).
• Interior vs edge: interior is the strength (Meinerz elite, Wattenberg just paid; LG the one soft spot) — supports the deep game and Nix's clean pockets. Tackles are good but aging; no rookie projected to start. Best pass-protecting line in football by sacks allowed in 2025.

Scheme family

• Run scheme: mixed zone/gap, Payton system (retained run-game coordinator Zach Strief) with heavy 21/22-personnel packages (10.3% / 8.1% in 2025 — nflverse participation) — RB fits: all-purpose backs; both grinders (Dobbins) and space/burst profiles (Harvey) got schemed work in 2025.
• Pass-game family: Payton West Coast — timing-based, RB/TE-friendly, shot plays off run action; healthy slot usage, mid aDOT, RB targets healthy (20.0% RB target share 2025). System continuity under Webb presumed (Payton oversight, staff retained) but low-confidence until he has game tape. Manufactured-touch roles (Mims gadget work) are technically void under a new caller per methodology §2 — though Payton's continued involvement mutes this.

Target/touch hierarchy & vacated math

Departed (name — 2025 targets / carries): WR Trent Sherfield (4 / 0 — moved to NE during 2025), FB Michael Burton (0 / 0 — to CLE, NFL.com departures tracker, March 2026). Everyone else returns: Badie retained on ERFA tender (SI Broncos, March 2026), Humphrey/McLaughlin/Krull/Adkins/Trautman/Prentice re-signed (denverbroncos.com FA tracker, March 2026). Vacated targets: ~4 · Vacated carries: ~0 (data/stats/2025/receiving.csv, rushing.csv)

Arrivals (name — claim): WR Jaylen Waddle — trade from MIA 2026-03-18 for 1st (No. 30) + 3rd (No. 94) + 4th (No. 130), receiving Waddle + 4th (No. 111); signed 3yr/$84.75M ($28.25M APY) through 2028 (NFL.com, denverbroncos.com). Massive capital claim — presumptive top-2 target. 2025 at MIA: 100 targets, 64-910-6, 21.65% TS (receiving.csv). RB Jonah Coleman — R4 No. 108 (Washington). TE Justin Joly — R5 No. 152 (developmental). TE Dallen Bentley — R7 No. 256 (ESPN draft tracker, April 2026).

The story is compression, not vacancy: ~100 targets of Waddle demand arrive with only ~4 vacated. Franklin (104 tgt), Engram (76), Mims (51), Bryant (49) cannot all hold their 2025 volume.

Projected pecking order:

RB committee split (mark: 1A/1B, contested at the top): Early downs — Dobbins 1A / Harvey 1B, roughly the 2025 shape (Dobbins 164 touches to Harvey's 75 through Wk 10; Harvey 16.2 touches/gm after Dobbins' foot injury — Fantasy Life, June 2026; Dobbins re-signed 2yr/$20M, $8M gtd, ESPN FA tracker March 2026). Passing downs — Harvey primary receiving back; Badie (retained) and R4 Coleman compete for the third-down pass-pro role. Goal line — contested: Harvey led with 7 rush TDs in 2025, Dobbins the short-yardage hammer when healthy. Beat blueprint: "Dobbins and Harvey in similar roles to last year, Coleman as the third-down back plus maybe a little more" (Fantasy Life/Heavy, June 2026).

Game environment

• Vegas win total: 9.5 (Over/Under both -110), DraftKings, as-of 2026-07-01 (CBS Sports) → script lean: positive (at the ≥9.5 threshold; market treats 14-3 as partly fluky — 3rd in AFC West odds behind KC and LAC).
• Projected plays/game: ~64.5 (2025 actual 66.0, 3rd in NFL — pbp_summary.csv; trimmed for first-year-caller install drag on pace per methodology §9) · Projected pass rate: ~60% neutral / ~61% raw (2025: 60% neutral pass rate, 6th; 63.3% raw incl. dropbacks — pbp_summary.csv; PROE +1.6% Payton prior, low confidence under Webb; positive script trims slightly).
• Projected pass attempts/game: ~35.5 · rush attempts/game: ~25 (inputs: 2025 actuals = 36.0 att/gm (612/17, passing.csv) and 24.2 rush/gm (412/17, pbp_summary.csv); new caller drag ≈ −1 pass att; Nix scrambles ~2/gm and sacks ~1.3/gm absorb the remaining dropbacks).

Defensive identity

Per methodology §8 — consumed by DST evals (dst.md §3) and /weekly-edge coverage-matchup reads (in-season.md §2).

• Runs the defense: Vance Joseph, DC — confirmed, retained on the announced 2026 staff (9news/NBC Sports/kygo, Feb 2026); Payton does not run the defense.
• Tenure with team: 4th season as DC (2023–) · New DC: no — continuity green flag: same DC ≥2 yrs; edge duo and CB1 all return (see below).
• Front/scheme family: odd-front base (3-4) hybrid, pressure built on the edge duo plus simulated/creeper pressures; top-3 in non-blitz pressure rate in 2025 (MatchQuarters scheme breakdown, 2025 season).

Also: 18.29 PPG allowed, −0.06 EPA/play allowed (def_summary.csv); ranked No. 1 in defensive EPA/play in 2025 (Sharp Football/MatchQuarters, 2025 season).

• Key defensive arrivals/departures: Edges — none: Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper both return (first DEN duo with double-digit sacks each since 2018 — denverbroncos.com, 2026). CB1 — none: Pat Surtain II returns; CB2 Riley Moss under contract, nickel Ja'Quan McMillian tendered (2nd-round RFA, March 2026). Departures: DL John Franklin-Myers (interior rusher, 14.5 sacks combined 2024–25) to TEN, 3yr/$63M — the one real leak in the pressure profile; LB Dre Greenlaw to SF; S P.J. Locke to DAL (NFL.com departures / Colorado Springs Gazette, March 2026) — per methodology the interior-DL and off-ball-LB losses barely register for fantasy, but JFM's interior rush was a real component. Arrivals: R3 DT Tyler Onyedim (JFM replacement, ESPN draft analysis April 2026), S Tycen Anderson (1-yr depth/ST). Flag: S Brandon Jones had Jan 2026 surgery (ProFootballRumors, 2026-01).
• Shadow-CB tendency: Surtain travels selectively — shadows elite WR1s in some game plans, not automatic (ESPN/SI Broncos matchup coverage, 2025–26). Treat weekly shadow calls as news.

Read: the NFL's most man-heavy defense (Cover-1/Cover-0 backbone behind Surtain) with an elite, mostly-organic pressure profile — top-5 pressure, league-high 68 sacks — that upgrades opposing man-beaters and separators and buries press-losers. Personnel continuity is near-total (same DC 4th year, both edges, CB1, nickel back); the JFM interior-rush loss and low 2025 takeaway count (16, def_summary.csv) are the regression levers, not scheme change.

Stability & change log

• Stability: low — per methodology §10, a first-time play-caller (Davis Webb has never called plays) rates low regardless of surrounding continuity. Heavy mitigation the rating can't capture: same HC overseeing the same system, same QB1 (rookie deal, no benching risk), 5/5 OL starters returning, no open QB1 battle, defense fully intact (dc_new: false). If camp reporting shows Payton effectively co-calling or the system unchanged, revisit toward medium.
• Watch items: (1) Nix's ankle at training camp — Payton says "full go," but a setback fires the QB tripwire; (2) QB2 battle Stidham vs. Ehlinger (tier B vs C changes the contingency line); (3) LG battle Powers/Palczewski/Casey; (4) RB 1A/1B usage in camp — Harvey overtaking Dobbins flips the committee; (5) Waddle's actual alignment (slot rate) in camp vs. this projection; (6) Mims trade chatter; (7) McGlinchey vs. Crum at RT.